Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

Viktor Kovalenko AT MrKovalenko
Today, during a POW swap, #Ukraine received 108 #Ukrainian women from Russian captivity. Most of them were POWs from various forces, incl. 37 from AzovStal & 10 officers. Twelve are civilians who were imprisoned for "being too much Ukrainian." (Source: Dmytro Lubinets)

2/ Acc. to Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak, several of those released women were imprisoned by the RU occupiers as "too much Ukrainian" for simply delivering humanitarian aid to orphans, or for fabricated charges in "spying" or "terrorism."

3/ More about those Ukrainian women released today from Russian captivity.

Myroslava Petsa AT myroslavapetsa
Viktoria Obidina, a Ukrainian medic from Azovstal, is freed from Russia’s captivity in a 108-110 Ukraine-Russia prisoner swap. Viktoria wil soon reunite with her 4-year-old daughter Alisa whom she haven’t seen since May.

107 more freed UA women will meet their families soon too.

This is the little girl and her mum who were much publicised.

As MissConduct says it symbolises Kherson.
It’s a big deal in Ukraine because it is transported north up the Dnipro river and when the watermelon barges arrive it feels like summer, so it must have felt as if Russian occupation of Kherson = no summer.
My Ukrainian guest is from Kyiv and this summer he bought watermelon for us all and talked sadly about Kherson.

There was a cool animation I saw on Twitter in which a Ukrainian partisan hides in a giant watermelon, slaughters some Russians then rolls away again in his watermelon. I will link it later if I can find it again.

I don't think the world ever was stable. It's just that for the last 50 years there hasn't been a war that remotely touches the UK. Even the war in the former Yugoslavia seemed far away.

When you are young, you don't even see the fundamentals in your society. They are just there. When you grow up, things happen and you start to question. But this war, more than the war in the former Yugoslavia, has made many of us question that fundamental stability more. It was only ever an illusion, but losing it is hard.

And there are still very intelligent, very well trained people working to make sure that as much stability as possible keeps going.

Like Fiona Hill I studied Russian at St Andrews - in my case alongside French. But although we might have overlapped, I'd given up Russian after 2nd year (1980) and after my year in France, changed course and repeated a year so that I could do joint French and Economics, graduating in 1984.

She does seem a fabulous intellect . Reading some of her comments about the snobbery she encountered at the Uni, she can't have stayed in my halls of residence as we were a hotchpotch of ex-state and private schools from all sorts of backgrounds I did most of my socialising in the closest pub there rather than with my Russian/French/Economics fellow students

Today, during a POW swap, #Ukraine received 108 #Ukrainian women from Russian captivity. Most of them were POWs from various forces, incl. 37 from AzovStal & 10 officers. Twelve are civilians who were imprisoned for "being too much Ukrainian." (Source: Dmytro Lubinets)

Thank God they have been released. Thank God. I wonder what was offered in exchange.

Nicholas Miller, Why the War in Ukraine Won’t Spark a Nuclear Proliferation Cascade
Arguments to the contrary overlook the complexity of nuclear decision-making.

foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/17/ukraine-war-russia-nuclear-proliferation-iran-south-korea/

(With apologies, I feel like I've spammed the thread a bit today!)

Don’t apologise! Your posts are always welcomed. As are everyone else’s.

And a summary of that Fiona Hill interview that Desdemona linked to, by Laura Rosen: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1582011654736613377.html

💪🇺🇦

Can the US Take on China, Iran and Russia All at Once?
America’s top rivals aren’t allies in the conventional sense, but acting in unison they could stretch a superpower well beyond its military capabilities.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-16/us-isn-t-ready-to-fight-china-iran-and-russia-all-at-once

I don't argue with the dangers this opinion piece points out, and we do need to increase defense spending. But this ignores the military alliances we have, like NATO. If we have to fight Russia, it's unlikely that we'll have to do it alone. If there is war with China, Japan, South Korea, or Australia may be drawn into it before the US. I think our forces and equipment also have a qualitative edge over much of what Russia and China would go to war with.

The USA won't be alone. In the same way the first two WW spilled over, so would this one. Do you really think Israel would sit out if Iran attacked? Or NATO if Russia and China did the same? I have not touched on India, Russia or Australia.

Nicholas Tenzer, What Would the (Necessary) Total Strategic Defeat Mean For Russia?
Why the West Must Define Its War Aims

tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-would-the-necessary-total-strategic

Yes I agree

Very sad news on twitter today about Kyiv. A pregnant lady was found dead in her husband's arms with their cat when their apartment was hit. Just one of many tragedies I'm sure. The vast majority of drones were shot down thanks to Ukraine's air defence but how relentless and exhausting. What is the answer to Iran and their drones?

Does anyone else find that their friends/colleagues are completely switched off to all this? I am scouring the news and keeping right on top of developments every single day, but I don’t know one other person in ‘real life’ who is doing this. In fact, I would go so far as to say it’s as if it’s not even happening.

@Greenshake Yes, same here.

Same. It is like my dirty secret. But I will still stay vigilant and in solidarity and wait for the good news that will come eventually.

Yes very much the same. If I say anything I’m made out to be totally paranoid.

@katem98 and @blueshoes, it’s good to hear that. It can be very isolating can’t it?

YES! People think I am weird for my interest in this.

I don't believe I am weird. How can I turn a blind eye to immense injustice and suffering and unspeakable evil? How can anyone?

The only charge you can level against me is I am not doing the same for the countless other wars out there, past and present.

But Ukraine is the war I follow. Ukraine must win just as good must triumph over evil.

The only person I know who wants to discuss it is a Putin fan, I have to stay away from him or I swear to God I would punch him

I suppose that people, as ever, just look the other way from things they don’t want to see. It makes me angry and sad.

I think this is true for the most part.

I follow these threads and post occasionally, but aside from DH and myself I don't know anyone who is really flowing what's happening closely which I find pretty sad/odd etc.