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Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

990 replies

MagicFox · 11/10/2022 21:24

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

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52
RedToothBrush · 17/10/2022 12:20

Noga Tarnopolsky AT NTarnopolsky
#BREAKING Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev says "It appears Israel is preparing to supply arms to Ukraine. It would destroy Israeli-Russian diplomatic ties."

Alexander Clarkson AT APHClarkson
Or alternately Russia has so weakened its global military position through the destruction of its pre-2022 army in Ukraine that the Israelis now no longer need to feel as concerned about what is left of Russia's protective shield over Assad and Hezbollah in Syria

Interesting... I think the missile defence aspect of this, is potentially the bit to watch...

MMBaranova · 17/10/2022 12:48

Yes Girkin/Strelkov is implicated in the shooting down of the Dutch airliner. He's an odious shapeshifter with roleplay delusions. He has been fairly candid and accurate in some of his assessments this year. It would be convenient to many on either side if he comes to grief.

Ijsbear · 17/10/2022 13:14

Another chilling nick-name Ive seen for Russian conscripts is 'single-use soldiers'.

Igotjelly · 17/10/2022 13:19

Ijsbear · 17/10/2022 13:14

Another chilling nick-name Ive seen for Russian conscripts is 'single-use soldiers'.

This is horrible. At the end of the day I certainly don't agree with the actions of the Russians, and that includes every day Russians who are failing to stand up to their Govt. BUT these are just young men, often little more than children, they've grown up and been groomed for decades by Putin's regime and now are being forced to die for a 'special operation' that has no purpose. Its an absolute tragedy on so many levels. And that's before even considering the implications of them being in Ukraine at all and the impact on Ukrainian civilians.

notimagain · 17/10/2022 13:20

@MMBaranova

Yes Girkin/Strelkov is implicated in the shooting down of the Dutch airliner.

I've been a bit busy and I have to admit I had a bit of a f* me, what have I missed this morning? when I scanned that post...

Without wishing to appear to be picky (honest), I assume you actually mean the Malaysian Airlines flight (MH17), that was out of Amsterdam heading to Kuala Lumpur...

Ijsbear · 17/10/2022 14:12

Yes, flight MH17.

From Wiki, short version:

Girkin was dismissed in August 2014, after 298 people died when Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down. Dutch prosecutors have charged Girkin and three others for murder,[7][8][9] and issued an international arrest warrant against him.[10] Girkin has admitted "moral responsibility" but denies pushing the button.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin#Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

MissConductUS · 17/10/2022 14:32

Ijsbear · 17/10/2022 12:11

From the information we have been allowed to know, it's very much 6 Russians or so to every Ukrainian killed ... on average. when Ukraine has to take part in a fixed artillery battle, it's closer to 1:1. But there are a lot of Russian deaths as Ukraine has good info and excellent weopons and so they are targeting bases accurately. Ukraine is doing everything it can to avoid pitched battles and working at the Russian forces' vulnerable points like artillery dumps, lines of communication, bridges etc

This article clarifies the quote.

Russia Is Losing Big Time In Southern Ukraine: 'Loss Rate Is About 1 To 6.5'

These numbers have a great deal of uncertainty about them. The Ukrainians are very tight with their casualty numbers, and you don't see much on social media about Russian successes. The US DoD issues estimates of Russian casualties but not Ukrainian ones. I think the ratio is very lopsided, with Russia on the losing end, but it will vary with what is happening on the battlefield. Troops on offense normally take higher losses than those defending, for example.

Ijsbear · 17/10/2022 14:46

The last comment by Zelenskyy a few weeks ago now (2? 3?) was that 50 Ukr soldiers are dying per day. IN comparison on a low-loss day the Russians loose 250 or so, and a high-loss day is about 450 on average.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/10/2022 15:00

The Russians are determined to make Ukrainians poor, cold and hungry this winter. They're not even pretending it's about anything other than spite any more.

Sunflower oil runs down the streets of Mykolaiv after Russian drone attack damages 2 tanks holding 7,500 tons of oil each

17% of global sunflower oil trade was handled by the terminal Russia hit today

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1581964809062391808?s=61&t=Jh6-lrqO4I2bIyBE695_3g

notimagain · 17/10/2022 15:07

@MissConductUS

Just going back to that WSJ article -

I agree (as it says) there's a real mystery about why the Russians didn't sustain their early efforts at suppressing/destroying the Ukraine Air Defence System and the Uk Air Force....

I'm sure the Uks having good intelligence was a factor....but other than that?

One is left wondering if the Russian Air Force isn't as good as was painted in the west. Lack of funds- lack of training- lack of flying hours etc...???

Guess we will have wait for the big debrief....

MissConductUS · 17/10/2022 15:37

notimagain · 17/10/2022 15:07

@MissConductUS

Just going back to that WSJ article -

I agree (as it says) there's a real mystery about why the Russians didn't sustain their early efforts at suppressing/destroying the Ukraine Air Defence System and the Uk Air Force....

I'm sure the Uks having good intelligence was a factor....but other than that?

One is left wondering if the Russian Air Force isn't as good as was painted in the west. Lack of funds- lack of training- lack of flying hours etc...???

Guess we will have wait for the big debrief....

I'm also looking forward to the after action report. The first clue I had that all was not well with the Russian AF was in May, when a retired Russian AF general was shot down flying a close air support mission as an employee of the Wagner Group.

63-Year-Old Retired Russian Fighter Pilot Shot Down In Su-25 Over Ukraine

It seems that a pilot shortage is at least part of the problem.

minsmum · 17/10/2022 15:47

I am starting to see photos on Twitter of Ukrainian soldiers eating water melon

OwlsDance · 17/10/2022 15:52

There's also a lot childish mentality of telling others what they want to hear. Early on, when Russian commanders reported that Ukrainian Air defence was destroyed, they didn't really check or care that it was. They were given a task, fired stuff in the direction it needed to fly, that's good enough. No one really thought of the consequences of what happens if the objectives were not achieved, as long as you ticked the box. Task done, no need to think any further.

Same goes with before the war, when Putin was getting all the reports how awesome his army and weapons were. No one thought about the consequences - what if it's not?

MMBaranova · 17/10/2022 15:53

Yes, Igor Girkin (nomme de guerre Strelkov) is one of the four accused in the Dutch MH17 trial. As far as I can remember the case against him includes his being in command at the time and his VK account boasting bringing a plane down that day (I don't think any others were on 17 July 2014 as the Ukrainian air force had had a bad time, was depleted, and was saving resources). Nadiya Shavchenko, for instance, had been shot down and captured in June and was defiantly having her time in Russian custody.

He is being tried in absentia and has stated that the court has no competence to try him, the plane shouldn't have been there anyway, he didn't order the specific bringing down of the plane and someone else was posting in his name on VK as (this is where it gets truly strange) he was only posting on an antiques and reenactment linked site. However, at one point in 2020 he is reported on MoscowTimes as saying “In as much as I was the commander of the rebels and a participant in the conflict, I feel a moral responsibility for these deaths" though at other times his statements suggest otherwise [see image from an interview with Britain's own quisling Graham Phillips].

The verdict is apparently due on November 17th this year.

I don't pretend to have perfect recall, but at the time I saw (online, mostly on VK) the claim to have shot down a plane being flagged and pictures of the Buk being tracked (there were two candidate Buk launchers being followed in images and one was clearly the most likely), including by pro-Russian sources because they like doing that sort of thing, including analysing images to the Nth degree.

As the scale of the massacre became clear there were then swift denials while much of the world press went into a lagging discussion over what possibly could have happened. On the actual day those of us following the ATO already had a plausible explanation.

Igotjelly · 17/10/2022 16:11

Just watching the Commons and Liz Truss is absent. Penny Mordaunt keeps reiterating that the Prime Minister isn't there for a 'very serious and unrelated reason' - bloody hope she's fighting for her political life and its not something serious about Ukraine.

blueshoes · 17/10/2022 16:13

MMBaranova · 17/10/2022 15:53

Yes, Igor Girkin (nomme de guerre Strelkov) is one of the four accused in the Dutch MH17 trial. As far as I can remember the case against him includes his being in command at the time and his VK account boasting bringing a plane down that day (I don't think any others were on 17 July 2014 as the Ukrainian air force had had a bad time, was depleted, and was saving resources). Nadiya Shavchenko, for instance, had been shot down and captured in June and was defiantly having her time in Russian custody.

He is being tried in absentia and has stated that the court has no competence to try him, the plane shouldn't have been there anyway, he didn't order the specific bringing down of the plane and someone else was posting in his name on VK as (this is where it gets truly strange) he was only posting on an antiques and reenactment linked site. However, at one point in 2020 he is reported on MoscowTimes as saying “In as much as I was the commander of the rebels and a participant in the conflict, I feel a moral responsibility for these deaths" though at other times his statements suggest otherwise [see image from an interview with Britain's own quisling Graham Phillips].

The verdict is apparently due on November 17th this year.

I don't pretend to have perfect recall, but at the time I saw (online, mostly on VK) the claim to have shot down a plane being flagged and pictures of the Buk being tracked (there were two candidate Buk launchers being followed in images and one was clearly the most likely), including by pro-Russian sources because they like doing that sort of thing, including analysing images to the Nth degree.

As the scale of the massacre became clear there were then swift denials while much of the world press went into a lagging discussion over what possibly could have happened. On the actual day those of us following the ATO already had a plausible explanation.

I still remember the utter horror of it when the news broke. I don't think I have ever flown a plane since without thinking of this incident at 33,000 ft.

Girkin needs to answer for his crimes.

MagicFox · 17/10/2022 16:20

Also wondering about Truss. Rumours are some kind of breakdown? Also reports she's at HoC now

Interesting thread re Baltic countries beliefs re Russia:

@holger_r "Here's sth really exclusive. We interviewed counter-intelligence chiefs in all 3 Baltic countries to understand how the services interpret(ed) Russia already long before the war."
twitter.com/holger_r/status/1581928715260657665?s=46&t=lusQgfoICZalZB28ifrj8A

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Igotjelly · 17/10/2022 16:21

MagicFox · 17/10/2022 16:20

Also wondering about Truss. Rumours are some kind of breakdown? Also reports she's at HoC now

Interesting thread re Baltic countries beliefs re Russia:

@holger_r "Here's sth really exclusive. We interviewed counter-intelligence chiefs in all 3 Baltic countries to understand how the services interpret(ed) Russia already long before the war."
twitter.com/holger_r/status/1581928715260657665?s=46&t=lusQgfoICZalZB28ifrj8A

Do you know what if it is a breakdown I actually feel really sorry for her. Faults aside (and they are numerous) I wouldn't wish that on my worst nightmare.

MagicFox · 17/10/2022 16:22

We might be looking at Truss resigning. I hear you re the alarmist language though @Igotjelly

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MagicFox · 17/10/2022 16:23

Yes I agree jelly

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MMBaranova · 17/10/2022 16:25

I was following Mordaunt's responses in the Commons. This is very odd. All part of a greater shambles. Thankfully the appointment of Shogun Hunt has had something of a steadying effect.

MagicFox · 17/10/2022 16:28

She's just appeared?

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MagicFox · 17/10/2022 16:29

Well she doesn't look unwell

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MagicFox · 17/10/2022 16:31

This is so weird!!! She's just smiling and nodding and letting penny mordaunt do her thing despite being directly addressed

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MagicFox · 17/10/2022 16:36

Gosh she looks a bit odd you know

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