Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

Probably entirely coincidental but given Iran now seems to have sided with Russia, it makes the fact they ‘accidentally’ shot a Ukrainian airlines flight in 2020 significantly more iffy.

Ah, it looks like Kyiv are having a bad morning again 🙁

Michael McKay At Mhmck
On the Svatove-Kreminna battlefront, Ukrainian defenders repulsed an attack by the Russian fascist invaders in the area of Tors'ke.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information at 06:00 on 17 October 2022

In the Bakhmut direction the Russian fascist invaders attacked in the areas of Spirne, Soledar, Bakhmut and Mayors'k. After heavy fighting they were repulsed by Ukrainian defenders.
^^
–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information at 06:00 on 17 October 2022

In the environs of the temporarily-occupied city of Donetsk the Russian fascist invaders attacked Krasnohorivka, Vodyane, Maryinka and Novomykhaylivka. They were repulsed by Ukrainian defenders.

–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational info, 06:00, 17 Oct 2022

Official updates this morning suggest multiple Russian counterattacks on 3 of the main conflict points atm.

Notably the obvious omission here is Kherson.

The Russians were claiming they had made a significant counterattack their which had gain ground and caused significant Ukrainian losses.

This has not been denied as far as I can see, by any official challenge.

I await further news from Kherson, but I am starting to wonder if Russia has, indeed, had some limited success there during this news blackout.

Hopefully there will be better news soon, but its bound to set a few nerves jangling...

Yes Twitter still oddly silent this morning

ISW Key inflections in ongoing military operations on October 16:

Several Russian sources reported renewed Ukrainian assaults in the Kherson direction and Ukrainian sources reported higher-than-average numbers of daily shelling and missile strikes, but Ukrainian forces are maintaining operational silence about any operations.[1]

Ukrainian military officials stated on October 16 that Russian forces are falsely claiming to have captured several towns near Bakhmut in the past several days, but Ukrainian forces have held their lines against Russian attacks.[2] Russian forces are likely falsifying claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine.

Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate announced a $100,000 bounty for the capture of prominent Russian milblogger and former proxy commander Igor Girkin and confirmed his presence in Ukraine, stating “it is known that one of the most famous Russian terrorists has decided to renew his participation in the war against our state.”[3]

Russian and Belarusian sources continued to report Russian men and material entering Belarus.[4]

Ukrainian sources reported Russian occupation officials in Kherson City are stepping up filtration measures against Ukrainian partisans and accelerating efforts to evacuate key materials and personnel from Kherson to Crimea.[5]

Unknown assailants attacked a military commissariat in the suburbs of Moscow with a Molotov cocktail on October 16.[6]

Local Russian authorities in Krasnodar Krai reportedly intend to mobilize 1,000 more people by December 2022 and discussed proposals to redirect funding from entertainment events so supply mobilized personnel, seemingly contradicting Putin’s announcement that mobilization will conclude by the end of October 2022.[7]

Poor medical care in both frontline and rear-area Russian units is exacerbating already dire morale problems.[8]

[also a long essay by the ISW, which as ever is well worth reading, about the areas of Ukr under Russian control that are essential for Ukr's economy and integrity in the future www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-16]

+++

⚡️ Defense Ministry: Russia losing soldiers at ratio of 1 to 6.5 to Ukrainian losses on southern front.
The figure was given by Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, citing Andrii Kovalchuk, commander of the Armed Forces' Operational Command "South.

⚡️ Shmyhal: Ukraine’s ‘energy integrity’ intact after mass Russian attacks.

⚡️ Israeli minister: Time has come for Israel to support Ukraine.
The delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia impels Israel to deliver military aid to Ukraine, Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Nachman Shai wrote on Twitter.
The statement came after an Oct. 16 Washington Post report stating that Russia would purchase Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar ballistic missiles from Iran.

⚡️ Ukrainian, Turkish ministers meet to discuss extension of Black Sea grain deal.

⚡️General Staff: Russia increases attacks on locals in occupied Kherson Oblast, steals property.

⚡️Ukraine calls on US to do ‘everything possible to speed up’ arms supplies amid Russian intensified attacks.
Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, told CBS News that air defense systems are a top priority for the country, but they are "difficult to produce and not ready on the shelves.”

⚡️Russia blocks Ukrainian website for soldiers wishing to surrender.
The Russian media Kommersant reported that Russia had blocked the website of the Ukrainian state project “I Want to Live,” created for troops, who were willing to surrender to the Ukrainian army after applying online.
As of Oct. 4, the site has received more than 2,000 requests from the Russian military.

⚡️Zelensky: Fierce fighting continues in Donbas, including against Russian prisoners.

⚡️ Russian forces attack Mykolaiv Oblast with Iranian-made drones.
Ukraine's Command "South" said that three drones hit industrial infrastructure facilities and a pharmaceutical warehouse in Mykolaiv. Rescuers are working to extinguish the fire. According to preliminary information, there were no casualties.

⚡️Explosions heard in Kyiv.
At least four explosions were heard around the city center early in the morning on Oct. 17.

⚡️ Military divers are being trained in the use of unmanned submersibles provided by the Royal Navy

🛫 The aviation component of the regional grouping of troops began to arrive in Belarus from the Russian Federation. This was reported by the Ministry of Defense of the country, the territory of which the dictator Lukashenko allowed to use as a springboard for Russia's attack on Ukraine

💥 France will supply Ukraine with Crotale air-defense systems, says French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecorne
They will be especially useful in the fight against drones and air bombing.

General Staff: The occupiers in the Kherson region have begun the process of evacuating so-called "state" institutions. According to available information, employees and property of banks and a pension fund are being taken from Kherson to the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea

just released, russian losses

Thanks @Ijsbear glad to hear that Israel are finally coming off the fence. Not before time though.

Looking at the background to the shootdown of 752 and the events of the previous few days even now I'd still be putting it in the cock-up rather than conspiracy category...I don't think it was deliberately targeted because it was a Ukrainian Airlines flight. IMHO it still looks like a case of the local Iranian Air defence commander(s) being trigger happy and/or slack with their procedures and thinking they were engaging a cruise missile or similar.

There had been a lot going on in the air and on the ground in that part of the world in the days prior and as recall it quite a people in the airline world were getting very unhappy about flying over Iran given the increased tensions. Ukranain 752 was the unlucky one.....

@MissConductUS

Hi, thanks for that post, I hadn't missed it but I'll try and respond having looked at it properly later.

Kinda waiting for the news of actual delivery before anything else. This was just one govt official and Israel have been alarmingly neutral

I would tend to agree, to be honest cock-up is generally the answer to anything even mildly conspiratorial.

Zaporizhzhia plant disconnected from the power grid again. It really is just an accident waiting to happen isn't it!

‘Ukrainian sources reported Russian occupation officials in Kherson City are stepping up filtration measures against Ukrainian partisans and accelerating efforts to evacuate key materials and personnel from Kherson to Crimea.[5]‘

Does this suggest Russia is confident it can defend Crimea? Or just that even without the bridge Crimea is the safest escape route?

I'm not sure that Russia can be confident that it can defend anything anymore to be honest. I suspect its just the next logical fall back position should they lost Kherson but without actually retreating to Russia.

Neil Hauer AT NeilPHauer
The EU is set to deploy 40 monitors to Armenia's border with Azerbaijan. Any new Azerbaijani offensive will now have to come in full view of EU member states.

I think you are asking the wrong question there. Its not about the safety of Crimea but about the ability to defend Kherson Oblast.

Taking people out, is last ditch stuff plus it gives them hostages to bargin with at a later date.

We know that the last offensive by Ukraine put them in range of a critical crossing place.

Twitter is currently saying things it possibly shouldn't about bridges from Kherson Oblast. Source is a US based satellite analyser and being amplified by a significant Ukraine war tweeter. So hardly a secret, nor unsurprising, nor one that Russia can't see but I'll refrain from being more specific.

So removing what they could from Kherson, whilst the bridges are intact would seem fairly understandable.

There are also reports about heavy traffic at the Crimean air bases. We shouldn't forget that this remains an exit point for anything or anyone of significance. Moving things to Crimea, may not be safe, but it buys time if other routes are struggling with capacity for other things. Exit might simply be being delayed.

Russian Grid Go BOOM! AT BruckenRuski
Let's discuss rail supplies into Luhansk from Russia

A. "Kraken" video suggests no Russian trains were going from Kupyansk to Rubizhne thru Svatove on non-electrified line.

B. Valuyke - Starobil's'k - Luhansk is non-electrified, limited rail facilities & the line is old & in disrepair.

C. Liske - Rossosh - Millerovo - Rostov to is Putin's shiny new Moscow to Crimea Autobahn once occupations occurred... electrified, sleek, outside UA completely and only the old line to requires diesel locomotives from a functioning railyard in Millerovo.

What are your thoughts?

I do want to hear other people's thinking & thoughts, but the evidence in the Kraken video (likely no Ru use of A for months), made me rethink the viability of Ru using B.

While here, key HVTs on C to upside this critical, high volume Ru logistics line.

And while we are at it, the Millerovo Substation & power for the electrified rail & main line down the east edge of Ukraine.... Millerovo TS - 48.939637°, 40.372566°

Target the transformers and knock out supply to most of the electricity substations to the north & new rail line to Rossosh

This suggests that supply routes in the East are perhaps not in as good state as many thought previously. This also affects rail/road traffic into and out of Kherson/Crimea if 2 out of 3 routes into Luhansk are already shagged and have been for a while.

@Ijsbear thanks for the key takeaways

⚡️ Defense Ministry: Russia losing soldiers at ratio of 1 to 6.5 to Ukrainian losses on southern front.
The figure was given by Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, citing Andrii Kovalchuk, commander of the Armed Forces' Operational Command "South.

I was wondering about this ratio. 1 Russian soldier to 6.5 Ukrainian soldiers? Hoping it is the other way round.

Cos Russia is known for telling the truth and this comes amongst telegram noise about new Russian recruits being regarded as 'speedbumps' and there being Russia bodies lying everywhere unclaimed.

Pound Sterling Live AT thepoundlive
Some really good news for Chancellor Hunt. Big fall in gas prices today. NatWest estimates that if the Dec '22 contract hits 300p/therm the Energy Price Guarantee becomes cost neutral. i.e. the new government's biggest spending outlay is shrinking rapidly $GBP

My understanding is that this is a Ukrainian figure and so has to simply be the wrong way round.
It’s a common mistake to make and if Ukrainian soldiers were dying more than 6 times as fast as Russians there is no way the UA deputy defence minister would have admitted it.

@RedToothBrush thanks for replying. What is horrible imagery of using conscripts bodies as speedbumps.

Appreciate your latest posts, including rail supply lines. Always good to have your insights.

Phew. It is easy to get mixed up with maths on ratios and probably doubly hard if you are translating from Ukrainian.

From the information we have been allowed to know, it's very much 6 Russians or so to every Ukrainian killed ... on average. when Ukraine has to take part in a fixed artillery battle, it's closer to 1:1. But there are a lot of Russian deaths as Ukraine has good info and excellent weopons and so they are targeting bases accurately. Ukraine is doing everything it can to avoid pitched battles and working at the Russian forces' vulnerable points like artillery dumps, lines of communication, bridges etc