Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

Cool, Putin looks...awkward

"President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon to Vladimir Putin: "I ask you not to treat the Central Asian countries as if it is the former Soviet Union. Every country has it's own problems, traditions..."
@TUmarov

@peter_leonard "This rambling, unscripted rant by Tajikistan's president, directed entirely at an uncomfortable-looking Vladimir Putin, is something really quite extraordinary"
https://twitter.com/peterr__leonard/status/1581008169333325824?s=46&t=4mMv89nShw5vUS-rffOZLg

Link to full speech with subs here: twitter.com/vidtranslator/status/1581042607589036032?s=46&t=4mMv89nShw5vUS-rffOZLg

This is excellent! And hopefully other ethnic groups which are currently are a part of Russia (Buryats, Ingushets, Yakuts etc etc etc) will take note. Belarus too.

Twitter reporting panic on Russian social media as Ukraine goes on the advance in Kherson again. Apparently the Ukrainians had taken a pause and have been using artillery for a few days but are now on the move again.

Ukraine still making steady progress around Svatove in Luhansk.

The Finnish news is reporting it without much concern, saying a possible reason could be just normal exercises, that they have to practice moving the planes around.

For context/comparison:

What the Russians are probably doing is something analogous to this type of deployment - a routine exercise performed by the USAF prior to this conflict starting..

www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2931226/us-air-force-b-52s-arrive-at-raf-fairford-for-btf-europe-22-2/

Cool, Putin looks...awkward

And weird…. Every time the camera turns to him he’s making what looks like involuntary chewing movements. Don’t think that’s Parkinson’s but it’s odd.

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1581158395310374913 the Kyiv Independent states that the mortality rate for severely wounded Russian soldiers is over 50%

Yes, tardive dyskinesia. Can be a symptom of Parkinson's or side effect of some medications. Quite a lot of speculation about it online.

The symptoms, along with the leg jiggling and awkward gait, are now increasingly obvious. The question is the cause.

Several Russian mini bloggers who were particularly critical of Russian forces tactics on the battlefield have suddenly gone missing.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1580968866460880897?s=61&t=DIc2hBSt0juirHTDnezSaQ

And as this contributor to the thread points out they have been essential to our understanding of what's going on in the ranks:

Can be a symptom of Parkinson's and other neurological disorders, I should have said

Definitely lots going on this morning, video of Russian positions already being over run and comments like this:

There's a slight panic in the Russian channels after the information about Ukrainians starting to move again in Kherson emerged.

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1581202472097701888?s=61&t=DIc2hBSt0juirHTDnezSaQ

Both of those suggestions!

though given the cruelty with which they act, I don't think seeing the devastation will touch them in any way.

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his “partial” mobilization will end in “about two weeks”—likely to free up bureaucratic bandwidth for the normal autumn conscription cycle that will begin on November 1.

Putin may intend for mobilized personnel to plug gaps in Russia’s frontlines long enough for the autumn conscripts to receive some training and form additional units to improve Russian combat power in 2023.

Ukrainian and Western officials continue to reiterate that they have observed no indicators of preparations for a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine, despite alarmist reports in the Belarusian information space that President Alexander Lukashenko has introduced a “counter-terrorist operation” regime.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on October 14 that there is currently no additional need for further massive strikes against Ukraine.

Russian authorities are continuing to engage in “Russification” social programming schemes that target Ukrainian children.

A prominent Russian milblogger accused unspecified senior officials within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of preparing to censor Russian milbloggers on October 14, but there is no official confirmation of an investigation or prosecution of these milbloggers.

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in northeast Kharkiv Oblast east of Kupyansk.

Russian troops conducted limited ground attacks west of Kreminna in order to regain lost positions.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast in order to regain lost positions.

Russian troops continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and Donetsk City.

Russian authorities expressed increasing concern over Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear logistics lines in southern Donetsk Oblast.

Russian occupation authorities are continuing to consolidate control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) through strengthened security measures amid negotiations to establish a nuclear safety and protective zone at the plant.

Russian officials continued to brand their movement of populations out of Kherson Oblast as recreational “humanitarian trips” rather than evacuations.

⚡️ Danilov: Russia used two-thirds of high-precision missiles it had on Feb. 24.

⚡️ Reznikov: 609 high-precision missiles left in Russia.
Russia has used 1,235 out of 1,844 (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/reznikov-609-high-precision-missiles-left-in-russia) Iskander, Kalibr, and air-launched cruise missiles since it started its all-out invasion in February, said Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.

For reference: Only on Oct. 10, Russia launched 84 cruise missiles and 24 drones across Ukraine.

⚡️ General Staff: Russia increases number of troops at Zaporizhzhia plant.
According to the report, Russia uses the plant's territory as a base for their personnel because it is not under fire by Ukrainian forces.

⚡️ Prosecutor General's Office: Russia committed 40,040 crimes of aggression, war crimes against Ukraine.

⚡️ Reuters: European ministers to discuss sanctions related to Russia's use of Iranian drones.

⚡️ Mayor: Russian forces prevent civilians from evacuating occupied territories.
Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said in a briefing on Oct. 14 that over 4,000 people are stuck at a checkpoint at Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, awaiting entry into Ukrainian-controlled territory.

⚡️ ICRC condemns lack of access to POWs during Russia’s war.
In a statement on Oct. 14, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it has been barred access from thousands of prisoners of war in Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale war.

Belarus Weekly: Minsk establishes joint command with Moscow, awaits arrival of Russian troops (kyivindependent.com/regional/belarus-weekly-minsk-establishes-joint-command-with-moscow-awaits-arrival-of-russian-troops)

⚡️ Reuters: US prepares new military aid worth $750 million to Ukraine.
The package is expected to include munitions and vehicles, Reuters reported on Oct. 14, citing two unnamed U.S. officials.

TotalEnergies faces legal action for ‘complicity in war crimes’ against Ukraine.

⚡️ Podolyak: Ukraine will find solution to keep Starlink systems operating.
Earlier on Oct. 14, Elon Musk’s SpaceX sent a letter to the Pentagon saying it can no longer continue to fund the Starlink service for Ukraine.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, said he expects that Starlink will “provide stable connection by the end of negotiations.”
Podolyak added that “Elon Musk helped us survive the most critical moments of the war.”
So far, roughly 20,000 Starlink satellite units have been donated to Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukrainian finance minister to chair World Bank, IMF Board of Governors in 2023.
Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko’s unanimous election is the first since Ukraine’s 30-year membership in the World Bank and the IMF.

⚡️ The Insider: Kremlin-linked officers seek asylum in France.
A member of Russia’s Security Service (FSB) and a member of the Russian mercenary organization Wagner have requested asylum in France, reports The Insider.

⚡️Saudi Arabia to provide $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine's military struck multiple Russian command posts in Donbas over last 24 hours.

⚡️General Staff: Mortality rate of seriously wounded Russian soldiers more than 50 percent [course, shooting their own soldiers out of hand will help increase the mortality figures nicely]
The high mortality rate is due to the low quality of medical care and the reluctance of the Russian command to evacuate the seriously wounded to Russia, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.
A large number of wounded soldiers are being admitted to medical facilities in occupied territories of Ukraine and in some cases, civilians are turned away due to a lack of beds, the General Staff reported, citing local residents.

⚡️New York Times: Russian military has lost 6,000 pieces of equipment since Feb. 24.

More high personnel losses, 2 helicopters down.

[The duckies are big now, and sigh since they are autumn ducks, they can't manage oiutside until their adult feathers in. So now we have a pen and 3 ducklings in the living room, and a big dinner party tonight. This'll go down in family history.
They also appear to be nervous of water!]

Article recommended by Lawrence Freedman:

engelsbergideas.com/essays/a-tale-of-two-generals-how-the-ukrainian-military-turned-the-tide/

Ijsbear 3 ducklings in the living room 😆 that'll give your dinner party guests something to talk about!

Putin's probably on anti psychotic depot injections to try and keep him in touch with reality and stop him going off the deep end 🙄

@Ijsbear I've been showing dh your ducks, on hearing today's news he said he hopes duck is off the menu.

No one. No one. No one in this house is eating duck for a very long time.

Even if I fancied it, the howls from the children could be heard in the US.

@Ijsbear aw, sharing your living room with ducks. Lol at ducks who are afraid of water. I hate to ask but where is their mother? Mum would show them the ropes.

How is the smallest one doing. Is it still be pushed around. Has it caught up?

⚡️ ICRC condemns lack of access to POWs during Russia’s war.
In a statement on Oct. 14, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it has been barred access from thousands of prisoners of war in Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale war.

That's slightly misleading as it's not specifically "in Ukraine" : the ICRC says that they share the frustration regarding access to all prisoners of war in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. While it has been able to see hundreds "on both sides", there are thousands more that they've not been able to see (doesn't specify in which jurisdiction). The only place he specifically mentions is their inability to visit the Olenivka Penal facility [the one that was bombed] but that they can't force themselves in.

I agree though that they should get off the fence and make it clear who is obstructing access and where.

https://twitter.com/icrc/status/1580893190038880257?s=46&t=iHIiin8btjV63Mwz16YBhw

Oct 15 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia will provide $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Saudi state news agency SPA said, adding that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made a phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday.
The crown prince expressed the kingdom's readiness to continue efforts of mediation and support everything that contributes to de-escalation, SPA added. Saudi Arabia announces $400 million in aid to Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia playing both sides it seems given they've cut oil production at Putin's request, but $400m will certainly be welcomed by Ukraine.

Mama is happily at the farm still. We hatched them from a brood-machine and leave them under a chick-warming plate. All is well! :)

actually I think we should, in retrospect, have introduced them to too-deep-for-standing water right early on but, first ducks. They need to actually swim to stimulate the oil glands so that when their adult feathers come in, they have enough oil to be able to groom and oil-proof their feathers.

Long term lurker - thanks so much for this thread. It’s provided me with a huge amount of comfort when I’ve been feeling at my most anxious.

The message in the media seems to be that the rhetoric is changing now for Putin, it seems like he’s losing control / respect in his country. Is my understanding correct? If so, what happens next? What scenarios could play out?

Stray thoughts.

1. Russian demographics. The idea is from an article or post that scrolled past, not sure who it was from. Essentially Russia has birth rate (and death rate) issues, especially among 'ethnic' Russians. The men sent to their deaths through mobilisation plus those who have fled the country are going to add to these.
2. The Every time the camera turns to him he’s making what looks like involuntary chewing movements. Don’t think that’s Parkinson’s but it’s odd health issue. He seems to have good days and bad days. I suggest that, with legacy and lifespan in mind, his decision to start the conflict, how it is prosecuted and perhaps ends are influenced by his ill health and medications. However, we don't really know how.
3. Putin never had an off ramp in mind. He was sure that he would have Boyko in power, back to Yanukovych plus, within 48-72 hours and that would be that. Of course he no doubt discounted the extent of guerrilla activity there would have been.
4. Strelkov stopped posting analysis, though his feeds did keep putting up Russian and Soviet historical videos. Now he has been seen in uniform. Most suggestions are that he is commanding a volunteer unit.