Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

🇷🇺 News:

“Putin gave the Central Bank of the Russian Federation the authority to issue permits for the export of foreign currency from Russia in the amount of more than 10 thousand dollars.”

His partners in crime know that the ship is sinking and it’s time to escape

twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1581278210071093248?s=61&t=cR5I91ymp5ffMEnrpcgX3A

I think that it's complicated. I think most Russians still support the war but think it's been handled badly. That will certainly be bad for Putin, but they are following the standard Russian playbook of blaming corrupt or incompetent officials, military members, or others. And it's all NATO's fault for supporting Ukraine. People didn't care much until mobilization started.

As far as what's next, the only thing I'm confident of is that the Russians will continue to lose on the battlefield. The Russian army is no longer capable of large-scale offensive actions and has no way to regain the initiative from the Ukrainians. There are no good outcomes on the table for Russia.

Hearing promising noise around Kherson this weekend. I do wonder if we will wake up one morning and Kherson is back under Ukrainian control. Speculation only but I'm feeling very hopeful.

>the rhetoric is changing now for Putin, it seems like he’s losing control / respect in his country

He never had as much control as he thought and what he thought he controlled was not as he assumed it was. He rules a state riddled with lies, corruption and badly maintained equipment. This is no doubt true for all leaders to some extent, but with Russia the illusions of the Soviet Union carried into the subsequent decades.

Referring to a TV interview

Saint Javelin at stjavelin
When asked about how soon the UAF can regain control over Kherson and Dnipro's right bank, a Ukrainian official pulled out a slice of watermelon.

Kherson is famous for its watermelons, so the gesture is an allusion to some exciting updates coming so on

Official said he wasn't allowed to comment and everyone would have to wait for official updates. But that's one hell of a cocky response even then.

I think that we will, it's a question of when. Ukraine does not want to storm Kherson city for a variety of reasons. Putin doesn't want to withdraw because if he does, Crimea loses its main water supply and lots of high value targets come within artillery and HIMARS range. A good fraction of what is left of his professional army is still in Kherson but increasingly surrounded and weakened.

I could be wrong, but I think that unless the Russians start surrendering in large numbers, the end here is a week or two away, not days.

The last two days the Russian personnel losses have been very high. I do wonder what's going on and where the fights are taking place. It's been stated many times that Ukraine releases information a few days later because of operational security.

The fights might not in Kherson. But they are certainly taking place somewhere, with that level of losses.

Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
1h
The hell with it … even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free

I am very pleased to hear this.

I am guessing if this is the main City of Kherson, forcing a surrender by Russian troops by starving them of supplies will mean fewer deaths on both side, less destruction of the City and civilian deaths. It makes sense to sit tight if this is inevitable since the main route of supply via Crimea is now compromised.

I am looking forward Crimea coming within HIMARS range once Kherson is taken by UAF. If I were a Russian in Crimea, I'd be looking to leave one way or another back to Russia.

@Ijsbear glad mama is well and waiting in the wings What about the saying taking like a duck to water. Oil glands? I am learning about more than battlefield tactics on this thread.

I luffs Elon again.

Arestovych has been saying that the Ru army on Kherson side is able to get supplies of only about a quarter of all ammunition they need. They often intercept convos when commanders simply don't respond. There's a growing realisation among the troops on the right bank that they've been abandoned pretty much. They can't last much longer. Defending the land they don't even want or need.

So I've heard from mine and @Ijsbear friends that there are many more Russian soldiers in Kherson than before, that they are at leisure and seemingly digging in. I was a bit stumped by that report especially after the bridge being blown up. It also appears that Kherson residents have been adequately supplied with food, water, medicine from Russia and even some Ukraine supplies are making it in. Children are at school. Life is continuing with some semblance of normal. The evacuation/deportation is of concern.

3 soldiers opened fire at a military unit in Belgorod region. At least 11-13 killed. Alternative sources suggest 22 killed, 16 wounded. 2 attackers were killed, 1 fled.
Incident took place at training ground where mobilized were training.

Ducks need to groom their feathers to keep them watertight, so they don't get waterlogged and drown. They push their bills through the feathers next to the skin, pick up oil from the glands there and it spreads over the feathers. But they do need to swim to get the oil glands producing. Ours seem to be a bit frightened of being out of their depth in the water!

Russia kidnaps thousands of Ukrainian children from occupied Kherson Oblast.
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-kidnaps-thousands-of-ukrainian-children-from-occupied-kherson-oblast)
Moscow is relocating 500 Ukrainian children living in the occupied territory of Kherson Oblast to Russia every day, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said on Oct. 15

fucking devils. Absolute fuckign devils.

⚡️Occupation government: Ukrainian troops launch offensive in Kherson Oblast.
Kirill Stremousov, a deputy head of the Russian illegal occupation government in Kherson Oblast, said that the Ukrainian military is trying to launch an offensive near the village of Dudchany.

⚡️Germany hands over 16 Biber bridge-layer tanks to Ukraine.
According to the country's government, Germany also supplied Ukraine with ten pontoon bridge machines.
On Oct. 12, the German government announced it would hand over to Ukraine more Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers and MARS II multiple rocket launchers “in the next few weeks.”

⚡️Russian propagandists: Warlord Girkin sent to frontline in Ukraine.
Russian warlord Igor Girkin, also known as Strelkov, was sent to the frontline as a deputy battalion commander or the chief of staff of a unit, Russian propagandist and war journalist Maksim Fomin and other propagandists said.

⚡️Governor: Fire breaks out at oil depot due to shelling in Belgorod, Russia.

⚡️ General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel Russian attacks near 11 settlements.
Ukrainian forces also hit five Russian military command points and seven concentrations of Russian troops and military equipment, three ammunition depots, and shot down six Russian drones and a helicopter.

⚡️ Infrastructure Ministry: 7 more cargo ships leave Odesa Oblast.

⚡️ Romania to allocate $400,000 for Ukraine as part of NATO assistance package.
Romania "allotted up to $1.4 million as a voluntary contribution to NATO Trust Funds for enhancing resilience and defense capacities (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/romania-to-allocate-400-000-for-ukraine-as-part-of-nato-assistance-package)" of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Jordan, Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu said on Oct. 15.

Russia kidnaps thousands of Ukrainian children from occupied Kherson Oblast.
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-kidnaps-thousands-of-ukrainian-children-from-occupied-kherson-oblast)
Moscow is relocating 500 Ukrainian children living in the occupied territory of Kherson Oblast to Russia every day, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said on Oct. 15

fucking devils. Absolute fuckign devils.

Utterly heartbreaking for the parents. It does not bear thinking. How can anyone be so evil as to steal children. Those poor children. I almost wish UAF will just storm Kherson to stop this. [I know they have a game plan

Newly mobilised troops already coming home in body bags. It's tragic for both sides, they're not all murdering rapists.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/15/my-son-has-died-russia-mourns-loss-of-first-drafted-soldiers-in-ukraine?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

It says something about Russia that the average Russian, who was promised a 3 day welcoming operation and is now, 8 months later, under mobilization with frothingly crazy TV channels and increasingly restricted rights, with bodybags coming home, does not dare protest.

I also feel for those Ukrainians (like my SIL and some of the posters on here) who have relatives in Russia who continue to believe/insist that (variously) Ukraine brought it on themselves/Ukraine started it/the West started it/it's not as bad as the Ukrainians make out (although I think they're struggling with that one now)

The thing with protesting is that strength comes in numbers. One reason given, for the lack of protest from the Russian people, is that they don't trust one another and therefore cannot organise themselves as a group. This leads to collective apathy and everyone minding their own business. However, we know troops are breaking out and surrendering, killing or running over whoever gets in their way. I'm hoping this 'movement' will snowball, Russian soldiers will vote with their feet.

It's heartbreaking. Our Ukrainian friends in our annex, her mother married a Russian and now cannot talk about the war. My friend has basically lost her mother in any meaningful sense. All they talk about is the weather.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · Today 21:22
Newly mobilised troops already coming home in body bags. It's tragic for both sides, they're not all murdering rapists.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/15/my-son-has-died-russia-mourns-loss-of-first-drafted-soldiers-in-ukraine?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

It is tragic from every side and evil of Putin to have set his people to murder or die for his madness, and unleashed hell and destruction on Ukraine.

From that Guardian article:
Russia’s mobilisation drive has been plagued by reports of neglect, unexplained deaths and suicides. On Friday, the body of a Russian military draft officer was found hanging on a fence in the far-east town of Partizansk …..

I suppose he had been killed for drafting someone, but what horror would be the explanation for the following deaths?

Some of the deaths at Russia’s mobilisation centres have also indicated severe issues with morale. During training, one man at a military base near St Petersburg fatally shot himself. Another in Siberia reportedly cut his own throat in a mess hall