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Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

990 replies

MagicFox · 11/10/2022 21:24

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

OP posts:
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52
ScrollingLeaves · 14/10/2022 19:18

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · Today 10:04

*Ijsbear · Today 09:40
As for the battlefield details, they can be interesting! specially to military or ex-military people but also to the interested observer too.^

Yes, as another interested observer I second that, and I really appreciate having these threads where if I don’t understand military stuff I can ask and firstly nobody will try to make me feel stupid for not knowing and secondly having seen the same people posting here for months I would not be at the mercy of random bullshitters making things up as I would be on Twitter.

Long live details.

I completely agree with what Ijsbear^ and CountessofFitzdotterel* have said.

MMBaranova · 14/10/2022 19:30

Back in the loop, insofar as there is one, after travelling. I flew into Belfast and noticed this sight for arrivals from Ukraine. After seeing the relatives in NI for all of an evening and a morning, I've headed down to near Dublin to see some more.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 33
MMBaranova · 14/10/2022 19:34

Yesterday's Irish Times front page.

Main story about the terrible Donegal tragedy. Ukraine is included in the article on hunger.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 33
miceonabranch · 14/10/2022 19:34

Could the evil goblin be ready to give up? 🤔 I don't think Zelenskyy will agree to Crimea or the Donbass remaining in Russian hands. I think he'll want to crack on and retrieve all of Ukraine.

Glad the evil dictator is being cowed though 😃 things must be even worse than we imagine.

MMBaranova · 14/10/2022 19:35

Inside in the world news section:

Ukraine Air Defences and Scholz on gas blackmail.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 33
miceonabranch · 14/10/2022 19:50

MMBaranova · 14/10/2022 19:35

Inside in the world news section:

Ukraine Air Defences and Scholz on gas blackmail.

I really hope Germany don't go back to buying Russian gas.

ScrollingLeaves · 14/10/2022 20:18

minsmum · Today 18:07
mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1580882320931758082 German police have raided the apartment of the Russian woman who was taunting Ukrainian refugees

if only she could be sent back to Russia.

MissConductUS · 14/10/2022 20:23

miceonabranch · 14/10/2022 19:50

I really hope Germany don't go back to buying Russian gas.

I think a lot of this will depend on how cold the winter turns out to be in northern Europe. As of now, and thanks to La Nina, the long-range forecast is for average winter temperatures.

AccuWeather's 2022-2023 Europe winter forecast

We're expecting a relatively mild winter in North America, which may free up some supply here, but there are a limited number of LNG terminals in Europe to accept it.

wonderfullife123 · 14/10/2022 20:32

Really interesting thread about tone down in ' nuclear fanfic' on Russian state media over last few days by one of my favourite Twitter analysts. "The rhetoric and criticism spiked very high after Kerch Bridge attack through to Monday's missile strike response (with calls for massive response), and it's looking like Kremlin got spooked that it was veering out of control and clamping down very hard on it in the days since" . twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1580993243537641472?t=Fxv-Wqdn65fZn-Uijm-54g&s=19

Natsku · 14/10/2022 21:51

MissConductUS · 14/10/2022 20:23

I think a lot of this will depend on how cold the winter turns out to be in northern Europe. As of now, and thanks to La Nina, the long-range forecast is for average winter temperatures.

AccuWeather's 2022-2023 Europe winter forecast

We're expecting a relatively mild winter in North America, which may free up some supply here, but there are a limited number of LNG terminals in Europe to accept it.

Hopefully the winter will be mild and energy reduction measures will be enough

1245J · 14/10/2022 21:52

@MissConductUS @notimagain @Ijsbear

Thank you for your continual posts. Quick Q....on posts up earlier in the day.

Engels Air Base and the other one on the Norge border. Maxar shows Russia has hardly any buildings on air bases, no hangars and small sheds etc. Aircraft all on aprons and even runway edges 24/7. How does maintenance work? Engineers, crew, support staff need shelter when working and wider support.

There is clearly no community. As a kid I was on the Upper Heyford base between Oxford and Banbury and clearly understood it was like a small town with all its functions. But I cannot see any of that on the Russian bases.

blueshoes · 14/10/2022 22:16

@1245J Thanks for bringing this up. I remembered @Ijsbear 's key takeaway below mentioning 11 strategic bomber planes at Engels airbase now appear to have been moved by Russia closer to the Norwegian border:

⚡️Media: Satellite images show 11 Russian strategic bombers close to Norwegian border.
Russia has moved strategic bomber planes to the Kola peninsula, about 32 kilometers from the Norwegian border, according to satellite imagery obtained by Faktisk, a Norwegian fact-checking website. The images of the Russian Olenya Air Base on the Kola Peninsula near the Norwegian border show an increased presence of long-range strategic bombers, including Tu-160 and Tu-95.
The planes have the capacity to attack targets in the U.S. and all of Europe with nuclear bombs. The planes are usually stationed at Engels Air Base, 720 kilometers southeast of Moscow, Faktisk reports.

I wonder what this means?

katem98 · 14/10/2022 22:38

@blueshoes I found this whilst having a dig around.

www.newsweek.com/factcheck-russia-ukraine-norway-nuclear-bombers-nato-1751831?amp=1

DrBlackbird · 14/10/2022 22:43

This can’t be good news. Seems it is a problem to have mercurial and fickle billionaires with easily bruised egos having such an influential role in a war between states.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/14/elon-musk-spacex-no-longer-fund-starlink-internet-ukraine

blueshoes · 14/10/2022 22:49

katem98 · 14/10/2022 22:38

Thank you @katem98 !

The article says:

"However, the aircraft have been seen there before, and the fact of their presence on its own does not signal anything out of the ordinary or provide a serious cause for concern.

Their status as strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads has raised alarm among some media outlets. But analysts have suggested that this could be linked to the previously announced military exercises in the Barents Sea, or perhaps a sign of more nuclear posturing in Putin's confrontation with the West over Ukraine.
...
Finally, and I assess that to be the least likely reason, they may be there to load missiles for attacks against Ukraine. That rests on an assumption that there are conventional air launched cruise missiles for these aircraft stored at Olenya, something I do not know for a fact.""

katem98 · 14/10/2022 22:51

@blueshoes Not a problem.

Again with the irresponsible headlines, can't believe this one which was quoted in the link I just provided having had originated from The Sun...

"The site's proximity to NATO founding member Norway sparked alarm in some media outlets, such as British tabloid The Sunn^, whose headline said on Friday, "Putin deploys 11 nuclear bombers just 20 miles from Nato border as Russia warns of apocalyptic World War 3.""

notimagain · 14/10/2022 22:52

1245J · 14/10/2022 21:52

@MissConductUS @notimagain @Ijsbear

Thank you for your continual posts. Quick Q....on posts up earlier in the day.

Engels Air Base and the other one on the Norge border. Maxar shows Russia has hardly any buildings on air bases, no hangars and small sheds etc. Aircraft all on aprons and even runway edges 24/7. How does maintenance work? Engineers, crew, support staff need shelter when working and wider support.

There is clearly no community. As a kid I was on the Upper Heyford base between Oxford and Banbury and clearly understood it was like a small town with all its functions. But I cannot see any of that on the Russian bases.

Interesting question, they are sparse but I don't have a definitive answer but I'll chuck in a few random thoughts anyway.

If we're looking at some of the Forward Operating Bases (and I do know Engels isn't) with aircraft just rotating through you'd probably not expect much in the way of major buildings....

As for the main bases such as Engels - I do remember the likes of Upper Heyford, Alconbury etc, were massive in comparison even with neighbouring UK RAF bases... so I do wonder if a better analogue in terms of airfield and domestic area size might be one of the old RAF V- Force bases such as Waddington or Scampton, both adjacent to Lincoln (UK 😉).

Even those RAF airfields had attached communities that resulted a sizeable domestic area with married quarters (MQs) etc , so I'm left wondering if in the Russian's simply don't do accompanied postings and everybody is rammed into a few barrack blocks or OTOH everybody is accommodated off base and so there isn't a formal recognisable domestic site, easily identifiable from the air...

As for maintenance facilities on the airfield itself...Again don't really know... I do know engineers can do a fair bit of basic routine maintenance out on the ramp - happens a lot in the civil world, but you'd sure as heck need shelter in a Russian winter...but what happens if you need deeper maintenance? Civilian world at your main base and at the RAF stations mentioned upthread have at least a handful of hangars but as you say there appear to be zero similar on many most of the Russian fields. Do they simply either fly aircraft off to perhaps to a main maintenance base somewhere for routine deep maintenance...failing that?

I have had just one thinks bubble BTW -> big span hangar roofs, Russian construction and Russian winter snow.... are they a winning combination???).

So in summary...don't have a definite answer....I'll have a dig round..

MissConductUS · 14/10/2022 22:57

1245J · 14/10/2022 21:52

@MissConductUS @notimagain @Ijsbear

Thank you for your continual posts. Quick Q....on posts up earlier in the day.

Engels Air Base and the other one on the Norge border. Maxar shows Russia has hardly any buildings on air bases, no hangars and small sheds etc. Aircraft all on aprons and even runway edges 24/7. How does maintenance work? Engineers, crew, support staff need shelter when working and wider support.

There is clearly no community. As a kid I was on the Upper Heyford base between Oxford and Banbury and clearly understood it was like a small town with all its functions. But I cannot see any of that on the Russian bases.

Have a look at the wikipedia entry for the base:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engels-2_(air_base)

There's a video of an aerial view of the base on the right side of the page partway down. It was taken from the window of a plane flying over the base. Starting at about 15 seconds in, you will see some structures near the runways, which are quite spread out. Watch a bit more, and you'll see the city that surrounds the base and is quite close to it.

I would guess that some facilities are underground or camouflaged and that workers and airmen have housing at the edge of the base where the city encoaches. Hopefully, notimagain will chime in as our resident zoomie expert in all things air force.

1245J · 14/10/2022 23:17

Thank you. Engels is interesting from the satellite images, but only in the sense it seems an effing mess. There is a wide flat geometric shape to WNW but that isn’t a hanger. Much too large and might be a water discharge (swamp). There are ammo dumps to the ENE, possibly silos, but not buildings. This is Engels though, it looks much worse in the Arctic circle. But something must be working there. Just puzzled.

MissConductUS · 14/10/2022 23:17

I see now that notimagain and I have cross-posted. Sorry for any confusion.

1245J · 14/10/2022 23:53

By the way, I miss Lavrov. We used to see him a lot in the Spring but he’s not playing anymore. Sniff.

minsmum · 15/10/2022 00:09

mobile.twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1581046309230112768 Blood in the water

MissConductUS · 15/10/2022 00:36

1245J · 14/10/2022 23:53

By the way, I miss Lavrov. We used to see him a lot in the Spring but he’s not playing anymore. Sniff.

Me too. He always seems like a character in a James Bond movie.

Greenshake · 15/10/2022 00:50

The awful, obsequious snivelling Medvedev is another one who is a virtual cliche.

Mb76 · 15/10/2022 07:40

Those Russian soldiers who surrender should absolutely be put to work and help repair the damage their country caused.

in regards to the Russian woman taunting Ukrainian refugees in Germany, I’m not surprised. There are a lot of Russians there of similar mindset, despite having left Russia in the late 80’, and throughout the 90’s (a lot of them are descendants of ethnic Germans who were exiled to Siberia by Stalin en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_Germans)

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