Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

Thread on the conditions of some of the mobilized. I'm sure it's not always like this, mind you.

twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1580838306396663808

I did explain to her how short sighted it was. She said if it's a choice of dying in a nuclear war now or in 10 years time then she pics 10 years time.

Again like I said the media has put it into these people minds that nuclear apocalypse is almost garunteed so when it comes to a choice of die now or in 10 years time they are all going to say 10 years time. It's incredibly irresponsible of the media.

Another one who appreciates the military detail. I've read a fair bit of military history, so I'm interested anyway, but the discussions about nukes have been useful.

Twitter post with link to Washington Post article by Michael McFaul:

Putin can escalate the war. But it comes with enormous costs.

https://twitter.com/mcfaul/status/1580874476732157952?s=46&t=M-8yMHpnBCD38ayD1jl42A

Seems like Elon Musk's attempt to hold the US and Ukrainian government to ransom was prompted by the Ukrainian embassadors "fuck off" response to Musk attempt at "peace making". He has said he is doing what he's told.

Thats a man with one hell of an ego problem. Not exactly a surprise he seems to get on with Putin.

Report on sky news from a news outlet suggesting Putin's willingness to talk as long as Crimea isn't mentioned and the Donbass remains under Russian control. I did assume the annexations of the other areas was purely to be used as a bargaining chip. Putin claims his troops are willing to leave Kherson if talks can begin (pretty much being driven out anyway).

He was also quoted as saying the the mobilisation will be over in 2 weeks and that further airstrikes across cities are not needed and they were specifically in retaliation to Crimea bridge.

Obviously I don't think these terms will be acceptable but he's definitely climbing down from discussing all out nuclear war a couple of weeks ago. Part of me wandered if he's trying to get himself an off ramp now after a possible dressing down by his allies and China. Wander if we will eventually just claim success in Ukraine and leave on his own accord. ( His hardliners are so deluded they would believe him if he said they had completed their mission)

Zelensky is not going to negotiate with that person, he knows what he has to do. Let him have the Donbass and he will come back for more. He needs to be defeated this is just another ploy to get governments to stop supporting Ukraine. More fool us if we fall for it

So he's willing to talk now but not about the areas of Ukraine he's seized. What's the point in that then?

He's just chancing that he can get Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire so that he can stop losing on the battlefield for a while. For the Ukrainians, there is no point so negotiations on those terms are not going to happen.

It is almost exactly analogous to Danegeld: "Give us some gold (in this case land) and we will stop invading your country." The Danes (shorthand for Vikings from all over the place but usually with Danish leaders) came back for more gold the following year, and the one after and the one after that, so paying the Danegeld didn't work then, and it won't work now. England ended up with a Danish king. Does anyone really reckon Ukraine wouldn't end up ruled by the Russians if they start giving them what they want?

The reality of conscription is starting to bite:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1580878991577124864?s=61&t=BDQYsdIssJllKuu_CO3ibA

On BBC World News yesterday a Russian expert, whose name I didn't get, said she thought Putin is keenly looking for an off ramp and has been looking for some time. But his inner circle won't allow concessions and backing down would likely result in his own death, so he has to keep going. She reasoned that Putin backing down now, even having suffered severe losses, isn't an option. Far better to continue in the hopes of a turnaround and victory and risk catastrophic losses. A loss is a loss either way.

I'm hoping the war will end when russian soldiers surrender in their droves. If they don't surrender, they will freeze and starve, they will be victims of a humanitarian crisis.

Only yesterday there was news about a group of soliders near Kherson that killed their commander so they could surrender. Is it possible that these men will decide for the Kremlin? How can you wage a war without an army? Or is it wishful thinking on my part?

What on earth is Ukraine going to do with them all?

Is that a way other countries could help? By looking after prisoners?
It wouldn’t be cheap but compared to the cost of providing weapons…

What on earth is Ukraine going to do with them all?

Put them to work. Bins still need emptying, farming continues etc.

If they want to be fed and housed they work for it, or they can be escorted back to the border labelled as traitors.

Alternatively they can fight for Ukraine.

Yes, you can put POWs to work. I googled the Geneva Convention:

"Article 49

The Detaining Power may utilize the labour of prisoners of war who are physically fit, taking into account their age, sex, rank and physical aptitude, and with a view particularly to maintaining them in a good state of physical and mental health.
...

Article 50

Besides work connected with camp administration, installation or maintenance, prisoners of war may be compelled to do only such work as is included in the following classes:

(a) Agriculture;
(b) Industries connected with the production or the extraction of raw materials, and manufacturing industries, with the exception of metallurgical, machinery and chemical industries; public works and building operations which have no military character or purpose;
(c) Transport and handling of stores which are not military in character or purpose;
(d) Commercial business, and arts and crafts;
(e) Domestic service;
(f) Public utility services having no military character or purpose.

Should the above provisions be infringed, prisoners of war shall be allowed to exercise their right of complaint, in conformity with Article 78."

That's right. You can make the Russian POWs clean a few toilets.

Exactly Blue.

They can fill the void of plenty of jobs Ukrainian men have been forced to leave to defend their homeland and they don't have to be paid to do it.

Normally this might be a risk in terms of sabotage etc, but frankly if I was a conscript with no training and crappy equipment I'd happily swap that for labouring on a Ukrainian farm in return for board and lodging - furthermore I would work my ass off so as not to be sent back to Russia and re-conscripted.

This is Putin's problem with conscription. These men are being treated appallingly by the nation they are supposed to fight for.

Remember the early stages of the war and looting where Russian soldiers were amazed at Ukrainians having indoor plumbing and Nutella of all things...where would you rather be?

On the frontline with a rusty gun, no rations, no training in the freezing cold or working for Ukraine to keep the economy moving in a warm bed and full stomach?

mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1580882320931758082 German police have raided the apartment of the Russian woman who was taunting Ukrainian refugees

What a disgusting and ignorant woman. Let’s hope she gets the book thrown at her.

Perhaps the Russian POWs could help to clear up the mess made by their bombings in the affected villages. Witness first hand the upset and carnage they've caused and how it's affecting innocent civilians.

She'll be torn apart on social media, lose her job and be ostracised by friends and neighbours 👍🏻😃

Putin saying conscription will end in 2 weeks but they're pressganging on Moscow streets:

https://twitter.com/bizukrainee_mag/status/1580866627175821312?s=61&t=FgjHOzOlA-vgMC5qGKZj9A

In the mean time there are renewed protests against conscription in Moscow,
Sky News:
Activists detained by police during protest against mobilisation of reservists in Russia
Images are emerging of activists being detained by police during a protest against the mobilisation of reservists ordered by President Vladimir Putin, in Moscow.
Earlier today, Mr Putin said there were no plans for a further military mobilisation in Russia.
Speaking at a press conference in the Kazakh capital Astana, the Russian leader said that the "partial mobilisation" he announced last month, which the defence minister said aimed to recruit 300,000 soldiers, was finishing and would be over within two weeks.

Also from Sky a translation of Putin's speech this afternoon, some of which has already been mentioned by Hancox432

Putin 'ready to talk' and may withdraw forces from key area - but has several conditions, report says
A report is emerging this afternoon about Vladimir Putin's supposed willingness to enter into negotiations about a temporary peace deal with Ukraine.
According to independent news site Meduza, the Russian president is willing to take part in discussions and could even withdraw his troops from the Kherson area.
However, the outlet details a number of conditions - that Crimea is not part of the talks and that annexed Donbas territory remains under Russian control.
These are conditions unlikely to be agreed to by Ukraine, with critics of the Kremlin suggesting that any ceasefire would be used by Russia to regroup and renew its attacks.

Putin says military mobilisation in Russia will be over in two weeks
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the partial mobilisation in the country will be over in two weeks.
Speaking at a news conference in the Kazakh capital Astana, he also said there are no plans for additional military mobilisation in Russia.
In September, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russia will draft 300,000 reservists to support its military campaign after Mr Putin ordered the partial mobilisation.
The move appeared to be an admission Moscow's war in Ukraine is not going to plan.
The Russian president told the news conference today he ordered the partial mobilisation because it is "impossible to hold the front using only contracted servicemen".
He added 16,000 mobilised troops are already engaged in military tasks.
Mr Putin also said there is "no need for massive strikes on Ukraine now" but "we will see" after Russia's forces targeted cities across the country.

The strikes were a response to a blast which damaged the bridge connecting annexed Crimea and Russia. Moscow blames the explosion on Ukraine.
The Russian president also said what is happening during the war is "unpleasant" but "we are doing what's right".
"We never set ourselves the goal of destroying Ukraine," he said.
Mr Putin went on to say humanitarian corridors for Ukrainian grain should be closed if it emerges they are being used for what he called "acts of terror".
Russia has been increasingly critical in recent months of a Turkish-brokered deal that it signed in July to unblock food exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports, which Russia had blockaded.

Putin says he is open to talks with Ukraine - but warns clash with NATO would trigger 'global catastrophe'
More now on Vladimir Putin's wide-ranging speech in the Kazakh capital Astana - where he has said Russia's partial mobilisation would be over in two weeks (see previous post).
Mr Putin also said on Friday that Germany was making a "mistake" by prioritising its allegiance to NATO over its national interest.
The Russian leader added Germany had not yet made a decision regarding the one undamaged line of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, through which he has said it would be possible for Russia to pump gas to Germany.
He said any such decision was not Russia's business.
When asked if he had any regrets in relation to the conflict he said "no" and insisted Russia was doing the right thing.
Mr Putin went on to say any direct clash of NATO troops with Russia would lead to a "global catastrophe".
"I hope that those who are saying this are smart enough not to take such steps," he added.

Mr Putin also said he was open to the idea of talks with Ukraine, adding: "We have always said this."
He added that if Kyiv was "ripe for talks, mediation efforts would be required".
His comments come amid separate reports this afternoon about his supposed willingness to enter into negotiations about a temporary peace deal with Ukraine (see 13:05 post).
According to independent news site Meduza, Mr Putin is willing to take part in discussions and could even withdraw his troops from the Kherson area.
Mr Putin also said in the news conference this afternoon that India and China supported "peaceful dialogue" in Ukraine, a month after their leaders appeared to differ with him over the conflict at a summit in Uzbekistan last month.

Excellent suggestion.

Or perhaps proper dig graves for those slaughtered.