Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Maybe you have answered your own question?

How do we think Russia are likely to respond to the bridge, seems to be lots of speculation of pressure to respond robustly but what on earth does that look like. Nervous part of me is screaming nuclear but that makes no battlefield sense (I don’t think). Maybe attacks on infrastructure, like for like?

That's a good summary of the categories of messagers, MMBaranova.

I'm reasonably sure the specific posters I have in mind are not category 4; I think they're probably not category 3. This is for reasons to do with their content and behaviour.

(I don't want to create a Troll's Handbook by saying why, and anyway, this is just my opinion. I don't know for certain.)

What I am definitely noticing is that their quality is much lower than we used to see. And they're very comfortable chatting anti-Putin shit.

So I'm not too sure who they are or where.

Probably bombing civilian areas like what has happened in Zaporizhia.

Operator Starsky on YouTube believes that Belarus are going to get involved in 3-7 days.

I wonder how that will go down with the Belorussian people…..

I’m just not convinced Belarus will, considering how reluctant they’ve been to date. What benefit could it possibly bring Belarus?

Some Belorussians are fighting on the Ukranian side. At the beginning of the war there was stiff resistance from the people, hopefully that'll still stand. They don't have much of an army apparently. Putin's probably clutching at straws now.

Putin putting pressure on Lukashenko. It won't benefit Belarus at all. An act of desperation.

@miceonabranch I think you are tight. This could be a very interesting tipping point for the lovely Lukashenko 🙂

@PerkingFaintly Your post about direct criticism - that's been noted by some of the Russia-observers to be beginning within Russia too. Not much of it yet, but it's starting.

If it's happening here with the paid trolls (I do wonder what Mumsnet mods make of having to deal with all this, it's not what you expect when you take a modding job!) then I wonder who, exactly, is paying those trolls? Because it won't be any of the troll farms under Putin's control.

So it seems that someone within Russia is powerful enough now to be openly undermining him.

I admit to a certain smug and childish satisfaction that this ruthless, horrible man who thought he was the puppetmaster of most of the world (US, UK, EU politics, Africa, Brazil) .... is now losing his grip. His puppets are climbing up their strings and starting to gnaw on his fingers. If he's sane enough any longer to realise it, he must be sleeping very badly. Plus he might possibly be in physical pain.

‘His puppets are climbing up their strings and starting to gnaw on his fingers.‘

There’s an image to savour.

Interesting interview with the Belarus opposition leader.

We've got to remember that nuclear weapons will only likely be used when there is no alternative option.

Russia still holds much more ground than it did before the invasion. If you look at the maps there are only 3 smallish areas that they don't control in there illegally annexed areas. Although Ukraine has done incredibly well in their counter offenses I honestly don't think they would consider nuclear weapons unless Crimea was threatened (which it very well could be by next spring if Ukraine success continues).

Right now they will be telling their own people that they are being attacked while defending their areas to try and gain support from the public. However we can all see now that the support is dwindling. I just don't see now how a nuclear weapon can save Putin. He will be the fall guy after this invasion. if a nuke was used Russia will sever relationships with everyone for decades and gain absolutely nothing from it. They know there will be a response from NATO and they will be in a worse position than they are now. I just really struggle to see how the whole chain of command needed for a nuclear strike would agree that it will be in Russia's interest to do one.

Ijsbear · Today 20:30
His puppets are climbing up their strings and starting to gnaw on his fingers.

You are a poet, Ijsbear.

Weddady AT weddady
Putin's bluff is being called everyday. The talk of WW3 is just that.. hot air.

The glaring omission: Putin is reduced to whining and complaining. He can't do a damn thing about it.

Vladimir "Bluff" Putin Reminder: he didn't build billion-dollar palaces and yachts, and stash money abroad with his cronies just then to start WW3.. Stalin, Andropov could have, but not this 3rd rate snitch

You'll forgive me for not taking my foreign policy and international tips from Elon Musk. Putin is no Stalin, no Andropov, he does not have the guts to do more than he's been doing all along: lie, kill, steal and bluff.

The first rule of poker: you say "I am not bluffing" when you're bluffing. You say "I am bluffing" when indeed you're bluffing. Here you see that Putin is a lousy poker player.

Ukraine will take Crimea and not one nuclear weapon will be used. Why?

1- Nuclear deterrence works
2- Putin's own system/cronies have Dachas, yachts, palaces, kids money they'd like to keep
3- Putin may be insane (not the case) his underlings aren't

Finally, it must be said that both Vladimir Putin and Elon Musk are lousy poker players. One just plays it badly. The other, never learned to play to begin with

I note that Putin said that the attack was carried out by Ukrainian special forces with help from Russian traitors and Foreign Powers. He just CAN NOT entertain the idea that Ukraine have acted on their own, because to do that undermines the entire premise of his entire war. And its an admission of Russian weakness.

Once again we are left with the point that, if Russia were going to use nukes because of the bombing, why are we sat here waiting for it to happen? Why are we waiting for him to sign it off in a beaucratic meeting with his cabinet? Why does Putin need so much time to sell the idea?

Every time the Russians say 'if you do that, its so bad we can't tolerate it' and then sort of sheepishly tone it down after it actually happens.

For Putin to be in such a corner that he seeks nukes as his only option, he is at a point were he is so weak one of his cronies will see the weakness and sieze the moment for themselves rather than risk everything to a nuke. They have bunkers, but really none of them want to live in them with their aging wive, trapped with their offspring, when the alternative is well... you get my point.

For Putin to be serious about nuking he has to be at rock bottom with nothing left to lose. And to be at that point his power will be so ultimately fragile it can only break.

My point about the desire to survive is one I stick to.

I'm seeing a number of twitter warnings about this and to avoid if you can:

Michael MacKay AT mhmck
A video has emerged of Russians dumping bodies of Ukrainian civilians in an open pit at the time they occupied Kup’yans’k.

It is similar to film of what the Einsatzkommandos did to Jewish Ukrainians during WWII.

Russia carries out a genocide like the Holocaust and Holodomor.

I saw it on Reddit. Absolutely barbaric.

I also saw a report that only passenger vehicles are allowed to cross the remaining bridge span. That may be for security reasons or concerns about structural integrity, or both. Trucks and buses are reported being diverted to ferries.

I saw on Twitter that they have put out a warning asking people not to use it

I think the media have to be careful in reporting that Russia feels the bridge attack was an act of terrorism (even if they do use inverted commas). Terrorist atrocities have impacted the world.over the last.couple of years and we shouldn't allow Russia to use this term to describe a legitimate counter offensive. Putin can use the word but our media should exhibit extreme caution on how his words are reported.

Decades not years

I agree. The only ones doing the terrorising are the Russians.

This has a picture of the underside of the bridge deck I haven't seen before. It seems to indicate that the explosion did not come from below.

twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578853573278191616

mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1579151499086761989 message from the Ukrainian minister of Defence to th Russian armed forces. It is worth watching, it's simple but powerful

@minsmum thanks for sharing. You said it, simple and powerful message straight to the conscience of russian commanders and officers, appealing to their sense of injustice at their betrayal and their desire for self-preservation.

All done in one take without faltering. He is a lawyer by profession and delivers the message with the icy passion of steely conviction behind it. A surgical strike with words.

And it strikes me yet again of the differences between those that run Ukraine and those that run russia