@MagicFox @notimagain
I remain intrigued by the bridge mechanics and events. My initial thoughts were a truck bomb, carefully shaped. This was based on the visuals of the span and knowing what munitions can be made to do. When viewing the bridge footage, which looks like CCTV, but who knows, there is clearly a wave from the far side, which is the NW direction. And it really is from that edge of the bridge. That has been the prevailing wind down the Sea of Azov, but it is not a natural sea swell because the waves are mechanically induced. Something smaller hit the water initially, before the visible blast. Whether the smaller waves were caused by falling 'masonry' from an initial explosion or simply the prow of a boat - or anything else - I cannot ascertain. I remain open minded to the bridge itself being laid with charges.
I am also intrigued by the road span collapsing at two separate points, if there was one point of attack. This could simply be due to a pressure wave, or waves. More so, if poor quality materials - and this is a country where funds are diverted so entirely possible. It is the outer span that collapses (road in), the inner span did not (road out), but the rail line above caught fire due to the train being ignited. One road span not collapsing could simply be a red herring (and either way). The train was carrying either oil or chemicals/fertilisers (but could even be grain!) and likely went up from shrapnel which to me looked intense white and hot. Whatever was used to destroy the road bridge had a secondary purpose to hit the train line.
There are many uncertainties - other than the bridge was attacked from the NW, but I think it was meant to collapse entirely. My thoughts are that the following are relevant:
- The direction of use of the prevailing wind to assist with overarching damage, including to the train above.
- The truck, which at the time of explosion was above one of the 'span joints' (if that is the right term).
- The explosion on, under, or within the bridge itself and the possibility that a joint 'over' and 'under' attack was meant to ensure the bridge came down.
- The possible use of four key elements: two vehicles, the train, the 'boat'.
- The timing of the attack which captured three elements - (1) the vehicle moving inwards (NW and right lane), (2) the 'boat' being on time as (3) the train was moving overhead. The 'boat' was the controlling entity here.
There is insufficient evidence of a second truck, other than military trucks on the outgoing side which I give would be Russian. If there was one, it could have been late or early (if).
I am coming down on the side this was a well planned Ukranian attack, possibly using several strategies. I do not put it beyond Russian infighting, but it does not feel like that yet.
Everything I say could be wrong.
The grid co-ords in my original post from yesterday from the sole picture evidence were 110 metres out, based on the Maxar pics. I positioned it to the edge of the 100 metre navigation channel, but it was a bit further SSW.