Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

First train to cross.

I'd post a link to these videos, but both came from accounts that do not allow workable links for non-signed in to VK viewers. I'm sure they are out on Twitter etc. anyway or will be.

It is moving slowly and is presumably at a damaged section by the look of the railings just in front of it. The track looks fine, so my assumption is that the damaged rolling stock needed to be removed, but not much more was required. Then this was sent across.

Can you tell whether the single file is going into or out of Crimea? I probably can guess but you never know with Russia.

Shucks

NOw that was an interesting and thought-provoking post Targus

(I am sceptical about a boat blowing upwards against gravity having the adhesive capture to bring it down

Somewhat whimsically I'm imagining a spider-robot loaded with explosives inching up the supports from a boat below until it's high enough to cling to the railway and detonate itself)

Thank you Targus, NotIm and MMBaranova for some really interesting bridge and explosion stuff.
Love the way the uninformed like me can come on here and speculate and people who actually know something are kind enough to respond.

Kicking myself I did not think of that I wonder whether this spider-robot will shimmy up the supports or have self-adhesive pads on its feet like a gecko.

At Xi's first face-to-face meeting with Putin since the invasion at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan (15 September), Putin acknowledged that Xi has expressed 'concerns' over Russia's war in Ukraine. We don't know what those concerns are. Perhaps Xi asked Putin to de-escalate but instead Putin then rapidly went on to hold referendums to annex 4 partially occupied regions in Ukraine (23 September ) and then announced partial mobilisation in Russia (21 September), all the while losing badly to Ukraine on the battlefield. We never found out whether Xi knew that Russia was going to invade during the Beijing Olympics in February. Maybe Xi did not and this is the final straw.

I suspect Putin believes the world owes him awe. He has 'respect' (bear with me!) in the sense one has to respect the powers a head of state has, then he has referent power which is a bigger thing. But he has not accomplished global 'awe'. Awe is what he covets most and that is what is slipping away.

The Kremlin is about to lose everything if it loses its foothold in Ukraine. The west cannot allow Russia to gain a foothold or western democracy has lost its power. These are the highest stakes in my lifetime.

This feels like a case of stable doors and horses: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a decree ordering the FSB secret service to tighten controls over the Crimean bridge that was damaged by a huge blast earlier on Saturday."

Targus, I'm having trouble reconciling these two statements.

He [Putin] has 'respect' (bear with me!) in the sense one has to respect the powers a head of state has, then he has referent power which is a bigger thing.

Obama, Trump, Biden etc are mouthpieces only.

Were these US Presidents and commanders in chief without powers a head of state has or any referent power? Who are or were they "mouthpieces only" for?

>Can you tell whether the single file is going into or out of Crimea?

I think it was going in, but I was having visualisation strain at the time. At some point I spotted three posts about the first vehicle allowed across. They didn't tally according to vehicles and amount of daylight, so I decided there was too much fake posting and moved on. One showing checks on a military vehicle looked the most credible.

I have 2 questions re the Kerch Bridge. Firstly, is it possible that this could be Russian saboteurs, or anti- war protesters? Secondly, if this was Ukraine, are these decisions being run past others (in the West/US) beforehand?

Spanish reporting.

I bought El Mundo yesterday. There was a teaser for an article about Putin on the front page, but otherwise that was dominated by goings on in the far right Vox party and disparities in funding between different regions.

Inside though there was a lot on the war with an emphasis on NATO, the USSR (and its legacy) and the nuclear threat.

There was a full page on European leaders meeting to put on a united front and an article about the Lithuanian PM (see image) and her concerns about nuclear war.

The war also figured in a wider scope article about aid, including Unicef. Then there was an article about the Belgorod, with the headline 'El misil del fin del mundo que no existe' which means what you think it says.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · Today 20:36
Thank you Targus, NotIm and MMBaranova for some really interesting bridge and explosion stuff.

Love the way the uninformed like me can come on here and speculate and people who actually know something are kind enough to respond.

I do so agree with you, Countess.

Thank you all.

The Belgorod is stooging about in the Arctic, isn't she?

I wouldn’t try to reconcile them. It’s a Venn diagram at best.

The US is a different machine to Russia, indeed anywhere else. It functions on a greater scale and a greater depth. It’s presidents stand on the shoulders of giants.

My point about Putin is best read if you imagine he sees himself as Russia personified.

Absolutely not my area of expertise, but I believe explosions are much more destructive when they are contained in some way.

Thus a explosion from below would be sandwiched between the sea and the bridge, possibly causing more damage than an explosion on top of the bridge.

Yes, the Belgorod was last reported in the Barents (Sept 27).

Wrapping up:

I've noticed an uptick in images of Russian soldiers with quad drones.

Power struggle speculation rather than evidence is so murky that there's little to say.

The Kerch bridge explosions proved that it can be 'hit'. It's still functional though, but degraded.

Surovkin is being talked up as the single military commander for the war. One article noted that 'he is known for his harsh as well as questionable military strategies utilized in Syria'. This included going back on local truces. Kadyrov has said of him 'he is a real general and warrior, an experienced, strong-willed and far-sighted commander, for whom such concepts as patriotism, honor and dignity always stand above all'.

If you are currently on holiday in Crimea, the authorities are going to pay for an extra night, so enjoy your extended stay.

Twitter haul this morning. Awful what's happening in Zaporizhzia.

1. @sokovnikolai "Noteworthy article about nuclear use (will not solve problems and will instead create new ones) and other military affairs (in Russian) showing Russian thinking outside the Kremlin is ... well ... expert." (Links to google translatable Russian piece)

https://twitter.com/sokovnikolai/status/1578977946244902912?s=46&t=Mt-TgKDVz5GZ9MTWAXSj5Q

1. @chrisopherjm "After the Crimea bridge attack, Putin retaliates with a huge missile barrage on residential areas in Zaporizhzhia, killing at least 17 people. Coming days after a similar deadly attack on civilians, it seems to signal a new aim in the southeast: destroying the city."

1. @ayeieloheichem "US intelligence continues to have total penetration of the Kremlin, including direct conversations between Putin and his closest associates about the war." (Summarises Washington post article on this topic) : twitter.com/ayei_eloheichem/status/1578931091607814144?s=46&t=Mt-TgKDVz5GZ9MTWAXSj5Q

1. @typxnews cites ISW "Shoigu and Gerasimov were probably removed from the posts of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation and the head of the General Staff, - ISW." twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1578991475236671491?s=46&t=Mt-TgKDVz5GZ9MTWAXSj5Q

1. @juliadavisnews "Deputy speaker of the Russian parliament Pyotr Tolstoy advocates for Russia to destroy all of Ukraine's infrastructure, driving it "into the 18th century." BTW, Tolstoy and other Russian lawmakers have been publicly urging for that to be done all along." twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1578865908441022464?s=46&t=Mt-TgKDVz5GZ9MTWAXSj5Q

That’s @MagicFox nice wee round up of the morning.

Decided to have a look at the ‘will Putin use nuclear weapons’ thread. What absolute scaremongering drivel!

I know, that thread is mad and repeating old news too. Avoid, avoid!

It’s gone full blown conspiracy now, Biden is planning to nuke us all apparently. I actually think it’s a little irresponsible Mumsnet allowing it to go on, it’s terrible for peoples mental health.

Yes after the Biden comments I just thought "no point engaging here". Agree with you, there's a lot of whipping up panic - some of it feels deliberate

Yep, there's no doubt some innocent (sort of) scaremongering on those threads, there's a lot of BS circulated and there are some people almost seem to get off on it having read no deeper into the issue than a copy of "Armageddon for Dummies"...

OTOH at times you do wonder if some posters might be engaging in a deliberate attempt to undermine support amongst the public for the US/western approach by deliberately trying to frighten the pants of people.

That's exactly how I interpreted the Biden comments @notimagain, I think that's right