Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

It's bonkers isn't it! I wasn't sure whether to post on that one or not but I feel so sorry for anyone reading it who is already anxious.

I know it's already been said, but thanks so much to everyone who contributes to these threads.

>Deputy speaker of the Russian parliament Pyotr Tolstoy...

Great great grandson of author of War and Peace etc.

Zealous toady.

Anti-semite.

1 is potentially possible but you still have the issue of how Russian protestors got that much explosive / got past security so easily. There is unanswered questions on that one.

2 gives me more questions but of a different kind. Last week the CIA came out and said that Ukraine were responsible for the assassination of Dugin's daughter. And they weren't involved in anyway and would have opposed it had they known in advance.

This tells us a few things of interest and put in the context of the timing raises questions.

A) the US felt they had to go public on this. Why? The Ukrainians have never claimed responsibility for the attack. The US letting it known they know, is a warning of sorts to Ukraine and also a warning to Russia that all bets are off and Ukraine are stronger and more independently minded than Moscow is thinking. Whilst its possibly about defusing the Russian / US nuke tension
B) if Ukraine did do it, they have some sort of organised unit operating in Russia with access to explosives. Which does make 1) a viable option here. That adds weight to an idea of an internal threat within Russia which Russia hasn't got eyes or a grip on. Why draw attention to that? It might risk the operation. Or they may think that risk is worthwhile as it might scare the Russians and put them in disarray and fuel the internal blame game. Or, here is the big one, they are getting some sort of help from Russians in a high position who are able to well protect the operation. Or they are at least suggesting that. Indeed I saw yesterday one notable Ukrainian suggesting that Ukraine must have had help from one of the warring Russian agencies and they decided to help Ukraine to further their interests with the power struggle in Russia.
C) Still keeping up with the subdefuse and deliberate sowing of mistrust and potential double crossing here? No? You can bet that's part of the plan
D) why did the CIA leak that less than a week before the Kerch Bridge sabotage? Were they told by the Ukrainians that was the plan? Were they kept in the dark but found out? Did this mean they disapproved and were warning the Ukrainians not to do it? Did they approve but wanted to put distance to try and downplay the idea that the US was involved? Were the US involved?! Or a third party maybe who had sleeper agents long embedded in Russia? (obvious third party option is the uk - in which case the CIA going public is also of interest and might make sense)

As i say I think when you examine those two questions (very good questions which I think really get to the heart of the attack and a few of the reasons why it's so significant which go beyond the practical implications of restricting flow into Crimea and Kherson) you get a hell of a lot more questions than answers. And it's those questions which will perhaps panic Putin and his subordinates much more than anything else.

Putin isn't in control and multiple possibilities to keep Russia guessing and sow mistrust whilst they figure out the exact cause will stick and be more important than the truth in some respects.

I don't think we know the definitive answer to question 1 or 2. But that's the power of the incident and kind of the point too. Its symbolic in showing Putin's weakness.

Before moving away from Bridge Chat, I thought this image with the train still burning showed the damage and the spacing between the two structures well.

Although I am curious to know exactly what happened, the results are clear.

Yesterday Greenshake asked.

I have 2 questions re the Kerch Bridge. Firstly, is it possible that this could be Russian saboteurs, or anti- war protesters? Secondly, if this was Ukraine, are these decisions being run past others (in the West/US) beforehand?

My opinions, and with the usual what on earth do I know provisos:

Q1. No.

Q2. Ukraine is an autonomous actor. Quite what is discussed with allies is hard to say. When I was in Slovakia I was told by a sane and I assume to be a well-informed source that two NATO nations have members of their militaries on attachment in Ukraine in high level HQ/planning advisory roles. I think I noticed it mentioned elsewhere too. More countries are involved at a 'what equipment do you need / how will it be deployed and used?' etc. level.

So, to rephrase my answer: if the Ukrainians want to discuss actions with attached US and UK officers they can. Whether they did in this case, I have no idea.

That's been my thought too. To take out the bridge from above is much harder. A blast doesn't goes up or down it goes out.

To take out a section of bridge like that you have to take out the support or apply a serious amount of force. Bridges are constructed to within accidents, explosions and earthquakes to a certain degree.

To get an explosion from above to do that much damage you need to hit a real weak point / have a LOT of explosives.

From below an explosion takes out the support and the roadway above without as much force. And it's a force that a bridge won't have been specifically engineered to withstand to the same degree.

The video evidence tends to suggest boat for a few reasons.

It has been pointed out that a boat operation would likely had to have been operated from the Russian side as much as the truck option though which has caught my eye as being really significant.

It means that no viable explanation involves from a point of Ukrainian origin on mission day. It has to have gone via Russia on the day of the operation...

Again. Questions. Russia has an internal security problem

RedToothBrush and I were answering the same thing independently at the same time.

Interesting to see your thoughts.

FWIW I think that Ukraine probably is acting alone. They are better placed than anyone to have built up well funded spy/terrorist cells in Russia than either the UK or US in this era. The cultural and language barriers are smaller - many Ukrainians also have Russian heritage.

And more importantly, they've had the reason and motivation to have done this for some time. There has been a fear for years that Russia would try and invade and there is an historic fear to believe that it would happen.

Ukraine having independent power is more frightening and more concerning to Putin than the US or UK being involved.

Its the narrative of 'the worthy opponent'. Russia had a mentality which looks down on Ukraine as being lesser. It sees itself on a par with the US. Ukraine acting alone and being able to match or better Russia stings pride. It makes Putin appear weaker.

There is this worry, that Putin will look to draw in the US to deescalate to solve a domestic issue (the Kamil Galeev escalate to deescalate thread. And I note that it's actually on record as the stated current Russian policy to escalate to deescalate with nukes - has been discussed many moons ago on these threads if anyone else remembers).

If escalate to deescalate is taken seriously by the USA then what you would expect to see is language which is respectful of Russia, plays to Putin's ego as a powerful actor and then firmly distances from Ukraine on key points which push home the independent actor narrative via other methods.

This is where the role of China may also start to fit in too.

Whats happening?

Interesting thing picked up by sky news now, something I saw yesterday. That Turkey are trying to Broker talks with the USA, Germany, France and the UK and Russia on Ukraine and general relationship with the West. Obviously any talks about Ukraine should involve Ukraine. However I do wander if the is potentially Putin's offramp. A deal about relationships with the West with the Caveat that he has to withdraw from Ukraine. (I'm sure there would be many other caveats to any deal)

This way he can retreat without technically admitting defeat. Not that any deal he would be trusted on. However the source claims the idea was recieved positively from the USA but not yet spoken with the other countries.

If there is a chance of diplomacy where Ukraine doesn't cede any land then surely it has to at least be attempted. While obviously Ukraine should be at the table, with Zelenskey saying he won't negotiate with Putin whether Russia are attempting to cut him out of negotiations completely to create an off ramp.

Having looked at some other reports, video footage and taking into account other comments here, it does look as if the blast originated from under the bridge at sea level. There is significant movement of water beneath the bridge immediately before the blast. The munitions may have been improvised and white hot materials project onto the trainline above and into the sea below, setting it alight. The lorry disappears in the blast also, but it is probably a coincidence it does so at a joint above a pillar. Timing seems to be a thing here. And as RTB says, the approach is from the Russian side.

Talks with Russia.

Not Putin.

Always options in how you do that if you aren't talking to Putin directly...

Theres a difference.

The off ramp for Russia is Putin goes. That makes withdrawal whilst retaining the 2014 line viable.

Kadyrov

He's loyal. Over loyal perhaps. See the link for the Star Wars style assembly of Chechen forces to celebrate Putin's birthday. You can't row back from this sort of display in front of your warriors.

Then he's a chum of Wagner's Progozhin (left) and lauds the capabilities of the new unified commander Surovikin.

What happens when Surovkin fails to stabilise things, Wagner keeps failing in the Bakhmut area, and more key transport infrastructure is degraded?

Kadyrov might have to save Putin from a rotten coterie that surrounds him and warps his judgement. He might have to save Putin from himself, especially if the medicines are taking a toll. This is one of the alternative futures on the table.

The attack on the Kerch threatens the 2014 agreement and the continued control of Crimea.

Thats a big game changer.

@RedToothBrush @MMBaranova much appreciated, thank you. Lots to think about there and several directions this could now go.

As a rough guide I think the sooner and more frequently a poster on those threads introduces the following terms/words into a post without any qualification at all the less likely it is they really have a handle on the subject:

Mutually Assured Destruction,
"MAD",
Dead Hand
Threads,

I can’t work out if they don’t know better or are deliberately trying to cause fear. I replied to one poster who literally said ‘there is no hope’ and was informed I wasn’t taking the threat seriously or I didn’t understand it.

MagicFox · Today 07:31
Twitter haul this morning. Awful what's happening in Zaporizhzia.

Very grim and it seems to be like a revenge rage - and - smash - up session.

notimagain and MagicFox
I agree with you about the conspiracy comments regarding Biden. They are likely to be the result of deliberate seed sowing I think.

Over the last two days I've seen comments that 'this time is different' with regards the current Iran protests.

Ive just seen this on twitter.

Sorry posted too soon.

The riot police are joining the protests.

Thats major. That suggests it will tip the scales.

I know the son of the supreme leader fled for Canada a couple of weeks ago with with his family. So they were taking it seriously.

But the moment the authority to stop the protest, joins in, how do you stop a revolution? The only thing left is the army.

So Iran is looking like its headed firmly for either revolution or war.

Thats going to have major go-political ramifications.

And they aren't likely to favour Russian interests.

mobile.twitter.com/KvotheTheArcane/status/1578911384955662336 for your amusement

I replied to one poster who literally said ‘there is no hope’ and was informed I wasn’t taking the threat seriously or I didn’t understand it.

I got pretty much screamed at and told I was ignorant on the whole subject about 6 months ago for even daring to suggest that either side would consider selective release (i.e. use) of a single warhead...

"Don't be stupid>It's all or nothing>then MAD>Dead Hand>Threads."

I did point out that Selective Release as has been listed as being option in (now open source) documentation from NATO and WarPac for decades, had even made it into at least one book (Hackett)....but that attempt at providing new learning fell on deaf ears in the rush to paint a world wide catastrophe.

Now the same idiots are popping up suddenly insisting that we have to listen to their opinions on the consequences of Putin using a single nuke............

Strange old world sometimes.

Not strange.

People have talked about The End of Days forever. Some people do it in a way almost as if they want it.

It hasn't happened yet, because the desire of humans to survive is stronger than the desire to die.

People will die or kill for others to survive. And you have annahilation killers. But any situation where you rely on large numbers to accept they will die for a lack of noble cause with a certain goal which is of benefit?

Na.

Even Putin relies on others to help him nuke.

So you have to go back to the underlying traits of human nature. And the trait of survival is the one that's stronger.

Also
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-63188795
Protests in Iran: State-run live TV hacked by protesters

Key thing to taking over power: taking control of the media.

The supply of military equipment from Iran to Russia is liable to be affected.

good ISW point: the Kremlin and the news have not called for nuclear strikes in revenge for the Bridge attack. It looks like when things are more serious, they back off. A lot of the stuff about nuclear threats seems to be for the West to scare everyone.

ISW Key Takeaways

A large-scale explosion seriously damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia.

The Kremlin named the Russian Commander of the Aerospace Forces, Army General Sergey Surovikin, the new commander of the Russian operation in Ukraine, and this appointment has generated positive feedback within the nationalist community.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts.

Russian forces continued establishing defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued to attack settlements around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to shoot down Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.

Russian federal subjects are facing financial challenges in funding mobilization.

Russian and occupation administration officials continued measures to remove Ukrainian children from their homes in Russian-occupied territories. [ may they rot in hell]

+++

sum total of many reports: Zaporizhzhia is being bombed to hell with a lot of casualties, many tens and perhaps into three figures.

⚡️ Mayor: Over 6,000 civilian cars fleeing Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast stuck at checkpoint.
Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said in a televised address on Oct. 8 that some cars have been stuck at the checkpoint in Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, for over 10 days awaiting entry into Ukrainian-controlled territory.

⚡️ Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant resorts to diesel generators due to Russian shelling.

⚡️ CNN: Germany announces new weapon deliveries to Ukraine.
The weapons package provided to Ukraine by Germany will include the IRIS-T air defense system and 100 tanks from Greece and Slovakia.

⚡️ Ukraine’s military destroys 3 ammunition depots, Russian command post in southern Ukraine.

⚡️ Energy Ministry: Over 700,000 Ukrainians remain without electricity.
According to the ministry, 621,500 Ukrainians have also been left without gas due to Russia’s war against Ukraine

⚡️Milliyet: Turkey seeks to broker talks between Russia and 4 Western countries.

⛓Mass arrests of military personnel have begun in Moscow — the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.
As the Main Directorate of Intelligence noted, the elite russian guard units had entered the city

‼️The EU does not recognize russia's theft of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and demands that the IAEA's presence at the plant be increased, as reported in a statement by EU High Representative Josep Borrell.

🛣Invaders are fleeing from Crimea to Berdyansk, and then to Russia, as reported by Ivan Fedorov, the Mayor of Melitopol.
"We see the occupiers panicking. There's a significant movement from Crimea to Berdyansk since now the only route by which one can leave the temporarily occupied territory runs through Melitopol, Berdyansk, Mariupol, and then to the territory of the russian federation. So today there's heavy traffic in this direction, a large number of cars have left Crimea and are on their way to the russian federation," the mayor said.

🤔The Russian occupiers and their collaborators are fleeing from the territory of the Kherson and Luhansk regions, particularly to the occupied Crimea, with their families

[no escape eh?]

🪆Putin has ordered the FSB to strengthen the security of the Kerch bridge, according to the russian propaganda media "Interfax".

🗣President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that very fierce battles are taking place in the Bakhmut area of Donetsk region, and the Ukrainian military is holding its positions. [Ukr has been struggling here for some time and realistically, Bakhmut might be lost]
**
📹One possible scenario for an escalation in the coming weeks or months is a repeat on a larger scale of the 1999 covert special operation house bombings that brought Putin his first presidency in 2000-2004. And Putin can repeat it with thousands of new victims in order to accuse Ukraine of nuclear, chemical or biological escalation.

High personnel losses again. They forgot to add an extra category: Bridge, 1

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
Weekend Update--The attack on the Crimean Bridge and what it might say about Ukrainian intentions. Basically Ukraine is pressing in both East and South simultaneously, to see if they can create a new Russian collapse.

There has been talk for a while about whether the Ukrainians are prioritizing the East (Kharkiv) or West (Kherson) and what their ultimate intentions are. This week seems to show that they are pressing both (in different ways) and are looking for some major result by year's end

Though most of the talk was about the Bridge, its important to note that for the last few days, the Ukrainians have continued to press ahead towards Svatove.

Ukraine Battle Map AT ukraine_map
Svatove Front (October 9)
Ukrainian Forces liberated the village of Stelmakhivka

Within a week, Ukrainian Forces liberated Bohuslavka and advanced 18km to the East liberating the villages of Lozova and Stelmakhivka

They are now only 14km away from the key city of Svatove
(See Map)

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
They seem to be pressing both on both the north side and south side of the town, in their normal way of trying to find openings without incurring too many casualties (a bit like they did when they enveloped Lyman).
(RTB: The city is over looked by a ridge to the West of the city. If they take that, they have a very long range over the city and beyond).

If/when they force the Russian out of Svatove, they are basically forcing a Russian pull back to a point that they could start an even more humiliating campaign for the Russians, to try and envelope Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
(RTB: also been suggested that there isn't another obvious and easy fall back line between Svotove and the border)

You would think the Russians would commit what they can to protect Svatove, and Ive seen reports that the Russians are trying hard to hold the city and even thinking about committing what few reserves they have to a counterattack.

The problem the Russians face is that they have a large, and even more vulnerable Army in the south--around Kherson oblast. The attack yesterday showed just how vulnerable that force really is.

I wondered if they lost use of the Kerch Bridge whether they could still try and get some supplies into Kherson from the East.

Turns out that this is already almost impossible to imagine as Russia doesnt have a working rail access from the East to Kherson according to the very reliable and knowledgeable AT MBielieskov

In other words, without the Kerch Bridge, thats it for heavy supplies for Russian forces in the Kherson region--you can see just how crucial it is. So this attack really could have been devastating.

The Russians quickly tried to reassure their people that the rail bridge remained open--but we will have to see. Its a question of the weight of freight that the can send down the line. Its a two track line, and one track might take a while to get back into action

So the amount of freight heading down that line in the coming days will be important to see. Because not only does it have to supply Russian forces in Kherson, they need to supply Crimea as well.

For Russian forces in Kherson, this must be very worrying. They already suffered through a major withdrawal this week. They have been forced/pulled back from a large area to the North on the west bank of the Dnipro.

What the Ukrainians probably dont want, is a full withdrawal. Having a large Russian force on the west bank of the Dnipro provides them with a vulnerable Russian target for their superior ranged weaponry. Indeed they probably want

The Russians are running short of good troops and equipment, so good for Ukraine if they deploy as much of that as they can in the most exposed position possible--Kherson. Especially as at any moment the Ukrainians might be able to cut supplies there.

So Ukraine is shaping the war relentlessly in their favor. They are pressing towards two strategic targets (Svatove and Kherson) that the Russians want to hold, in such a way that they can continue to degrade Russian forces.

It creates such a problem, that Putin might rush angry, ill prepared conscripts into action too soon. The backdrop to all of this remains the worst mass conscription process of the 20th-21st century.

Here is a short thread by AT Mark Hertling about what Russians these troops into combat would mean.

Mark Hertling AT MarkHertling
Interestingly, RU State TV now claiming it will take “two months” to get recently mobilized to the front lines in Ukraine.

Great. But will they be able to do anything? No friggin’ way.

RU may be able to train the basics of soldiering in 2 months. But….

-You can’t “train” combined arms warfare, especially for large formations, in 2 months
-You can’t “teach” Generals, Colonels and new Sergeants the tenets of leadership in 2 months
-You can’t “fix” a supply system that has been plagued with corruption for years in 2 months.
-You can’t “coordinate” tankers, infantry, arty, intel, engineers, air forces & others for battlefield operations in 2 months
-you can’t “counter distrust” soldiers have in RU govt in 2 months
-after 60,000 dead soldiers, you can’t reverse the loss felt by RU mothers & wives
-you can’t issue equipment, uniforms, ammo, food, supplies, spare parts, that aren’t there (sanctions do work) in 2 months
-you can’t/won’t offer advice to a President who doesn’t listen (and who kills those who offer contrarian recommendations) in 2 months.
There are more…

But suffice to say, any RU State TV commentator or pundit who are saying things will be better - in the winter! - in just 2 months needs to remember just one thing:

You can’t change culture in 2 months. Doing that takes years, even decades. Putin will keep losing.

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
So here we are, Ukraine is basically presenting the Russians with a host of bad choices--and they will have to take one.

Also see this thread:

Dmitri AT wartranslated
^Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast for 8 October. This update was provided by Stepan: twitter.com/childsacrifice1^

Crimean bridge:
2 parts of the bridge collapsed and the railroad part of the bridge is partially damaged.

Heavy vehicles such as tanks will not be able to cross the road part of the bridge. This imposes difficulties on the supply of the southern group of Russian forces. It is unknown how the bridge will react to heavy cargo being transported over it.

the capacity of the bridge has been halved for at least 10-14 days. We now know how the bridge reacts to explosives and it is weaker than the Antonivsky bridge. Arestovich says that the Antonivsky bridge has been hit with 120-140 HIMARS missiles.

Russian political struggle:
According to some preliminary sources, they wanted to remove Shoygu. Shoygu then assigned Surovikin as the commander of Russian forces.

Military forces around Moscow were brought on high alert, according to one version some military commanders were arrested, according to another no one was arrested and this was simply a test of readiness. The FSB is responsible for guarding the bridge.

The FSB have since tried to distance themselves from this. Arestovich believes that the Russians will try to determine who among themselves blew up the Bridge, not the Ukrainians.

He also said that many people within the Russian establishment are now more worried about internal events than about the war. He says that the explosion may well have been the work of a faction within the Kremlin as opposed to a Ukrainian strike.

This is very good and means that "the end is coming sooner than we all expected".

Other versions:
Arestovich says that if it had been a Ukrainian missile strike the explosion would have looked very different. No missile is capable of such a large explosion.

A missile would also have been seen. Boats, underwater barges, and underwater explosions also do not make sense. The army may use this explosion to blame the FSB for the loss of Kherson as a result of logistical difficulties. We will see all this unfold in 2-3 weeks.

A drone or a missile would have been seen and would have not penetrated the formidable air defense net. The appointment of Surovikin is to our advantage, as he manages to even shock Russian generals with his stupid brutality.

Supply of Russian forces in Kherson:
These forces have been alarmed by this strike as the transport of supplies through the south of occupied Ukraine is very long, difficult, and covered by Ukrainian HIMARS.

As evidence to this point, yesterday something in the railway hub of Ilovaisk was blown up. Even if the railway part of the bridge is operational, the road section also represented a large portion of their supply, including equipment driving unassisted.

Now only 1 out of 4 lanes is operational and no heavy vehicles (including loaded KAMAZ trucks) can pass. This all further worsens their already bad supply situation. Radio intercepts already indicate panic.

Propaganda:
Russian propaganda does not have a single script, because there is no evidence of Ukrainian involvement. Thus, there are different versions emerging in the propaganda machine.

Arestovich believes "101%" that Putin is looking for perpetrators within his own ranks because there is not a single version for propagandists to follow.

They may launch revenge strikes on civilian infrastructure to calm vatniks but people who cannot formulate a single version of events are not ready to use nuclear weapons. They cannot explain an explosion on a bridge. How will they explain a nuclear strike?

Front-line situation in Kherson:
both sides have taken a tactical pause. Ternovi Pody northeast of Posad Pokrovske was taken, this starts to form an interesting salient, but this is not the tempo that was at the beginning of the offensive.

Overall frontline situation:
Similar things are happening in the Svatove direction in Kharkiv. Both sides are amassing forces.

Currently, the most important factor is not terrain or weather but the availability and quantity of reserves on both sides.

Arestovich estimates that the Russians do not have large reserves, but they may commit depleted units filled with mobilized personnel even though these are not combat-ready yet.

Some sources even indicate that the Russians may be preparing a counterattack in the Svatove direction. Changes on the front will depend on who will first commit their reserves, and where.

RTB: Keeping in mind this is a Ukrainian source, pushing a particular line but there are a few things to unpick here.

It sounds as if the general capacity of the Kerch Bridge has been at least halved. But more importantly it was the sole route to Crimea and Kherson that was being used for Heavy Arms like tanks and this appears to have been completely cut for the time being due to weight limitations.

There is no longer any attempt at a cohesive or single state led line on anything. That will probably reduce the effectiveness of internal propaganda. And that makes it harder to sell the use of Nukes to the Russian public. Thats actually relevant (particularly if Putin does go down that route).

The Ukrainians are really pushing hard on this idea of there being internal factions within Russia and Putin being more concerned about that. It aligns with what I said before. Whether I am reading it right or being unduely influenced here by Ukrainian propaganda I'm not sure. I hadn't read this thread prior to my earlier comments about internal Russian security.

The situation with Svatove is regarded as critical by the Ukrainians. If the Russians do feel similarily and commit to it, then the outcome becomes really important.

Overall there is a real feeling of a critical moment having been reached. The Ukrainians have a real feeling of momentum here, and its hard to work out what will slow that down - other than the weather or some unforeseen black swan type event. A nuke is a foresee potential event, but there still is a sense of how that is not as likely as its being suggested and that is kind of where I am with it. At least for now.