Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Could be useful if he decided to drive himself off the edge of a cliff

I think this smacks of US story seeding but would be good if true

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime this made me laugh, what a stupid f**king present - hopefully he gets caught up in some sort of ploughing contraption.

I have a genuine but probably stupid question so bear with me. If putin did use a tactical nuke and nato were to go into Ukraine…how would they avoid devastating Ukrainians even further as collateral damage?

I’m still scared about nuclear Armageddon but as I think @Igotjelly said I am also better than I was in Feb (I had to go back into therapy and up my anti anxiety meds…it literally reached a point where a plane would fly over and my boss would have to tell me it was the 11:02 into London City to stop me from practically jumping under my desk…pathetic I know). I’ve reached an acceptance that in that respect it’s out of our hands and I’ll be damned if I don’t enjoy every second of whatever life I have left instead of allowing some stupid botoxed 70 year old man filling it with fear.

Perhaps it's a subtle dig, to suggest that he should go and recover a few mislaid tanks.

My cup has now run over completely: it wasn't even an actual tractor, it was a voucher for a tractor! I wonder who Putin will send to redeem it for him?

In the unlikely event that Putin actually does cause a nuke to be dropped in Ukraine (bear in mind that for forty years of my life the USSR, whom we always called "the Russians", regularly threatened "the West" with nuclear Armageddon and we are all still here) the proper response is probably to go in mob-handed with conventional troops and weapons, which the Russian army is not going to have a snowball's chance in Hell of standing against for more than about a day, and throw them out completely. Then hand control to the Ukrainian government and get back out again, after sending a bill for reparations and dilapidations to the Kremlin.

Seriously, I don't think even Putin is stupid enough to use a nuke when it will not bring him any particular benefit. Remember how he keeps going on about "calling the West's bluff" in the nuclear business? That's because he is bluffing himself, and accusing other people of his own behaviour.

If putin did use a tactical nuke and nato were to go into Ukraine…how would they avoid devastating Ukrainians even further as collateral damage?

Fair question.

I don't think NATO would be looking a carpet bombing whole areas of Russian occupied Ukraine, they don't need to.

With all the intelligence gathering that's been going on (some of it visible on the aviation tracker sites such as aircraft and drones), and continues to go on in real time for six months plus by now NATO/US hopefully the location of every site of importance to the Russian military in that part of the world will be known the the Allies...we're talking about their missile sites, radar sites, comms hubs, military HQs, major logistics hubs, tank parks, major troop marshalling areas, Fuel/Oil installations..

Each one will no doubt have been assigned at least one weapon designed package to be delivered very precisely by suitable means. Hopefully the weapon will have destructive effect commensurate with the target type.

The effect of a heck of a lot that on the whole Russian Army in the conflict and the politicians back in Moscow...???

The health warning that goes with this is that despite best intentions sometimes these supposedly smart weapons don't work as advertised and there is bound to be some collateral damage, but I don't think for one minute the NATO plan would be to flatten the whole of Eastern Ukraine.

I just watched the BBC news and they were showing a President Zelensky interview, the last question they asked was what will happen to Putin if you win. His answer made me laugh out loud it was I don't care

Thank you for explaining @notimagain it was just a thought that crossed my mind after everything we’ve seen in the conflicts in the Middle East! Appreciate it ☺️

The evidence isn't entirely clear on that.

However, i doubt people like Modi, let alone Xi are encouraging restraint, look what he has done? what he threatens? and what he risks with Ukraine's nuclear power stations.

Russia survives because they have the raw materials the world wants, plenty of countries are buying what he is selling.

IF NATO (which in this scenario would be mainly the USA) go into Ukraine after a tactical nuke, what then? (regardless of how "smart" the targeting)

Russia scurrying back home or using another? then what? need to think ahead a few more moves, rather than just the immediate one.

I really don't see how this can end well for Putin, he is running out of options, unless western public opinion turn against arming Ukraine due to super high energy costs.

Russia scurrying back home or using another? then what? need to think ahead a few more moves, rather than just the immediate one.

I'd be more than pretty sure that those who need to think ahead have done so, but obviously the general public aren't going to be in on the various plans.

Part of me wanders if the nuke sabre rattling is Putin worries that while it's shown his army is poor whether he's actually worried of a NATO attack on the motherland. (Crazy idea but he is incredibly paranoid).

I actually think it will be similar from before. Uses nuke sabre rattling for a couple of weeks to scare the west. Probably hoping of no escalation by the west while his conscripts get to the front line.

I think we will have a relatively quiet winter (similar to the few months before the counter offensive) hopefully then before the end of the winter he is removed from power.

One can hope

Is it just me, or did Lukashenko just troll Putin?!

All those memes of tractors pulling Russian tanks? The Finnish tractor convoy on the road towards St Petersburg?

Lukashenko's gift says, "What you really need, mate, is a tractor cos it's better than your army."

Perhaps the tractor is a suggestion for a new career for him. He could go out into the sticks and live in a run down muddy shack with a goat and plant potatoes whilst warring with the fierce babushka in the next shack along. I'd like to see putin end up like that.

hopefully the location of every site of importance to the Russian military in that part of the world will be known the the Allies...we're talking about their missile sites, radar sites, comms hubs, military HQs, major logistics hubs, tank parks, major troop marshalling areas, Fuel/Oil installations..

Quite right, @notimagain. I'm not that familiar with what our NATO allies do in terms of continuous tracking of the Russian order of battle and disposition of forces, but the US effort is immense. Everything from satellite recon to signals intelligence to mobile phone tracking goes into the pot. There is no place for them to hide. As one minor example, many of the Russian ammo depots that have been destroyed were identified by monitoring vehicle traffic. A lot of that is done by AI now. And there would be no carpet bombing. There's no need with the precision-guided weapons we have. There's been very little collateral damage from HIMARS strikes and the other weapons that would be used have similar accuracy.

So I've been thinking...I'm not geopolitically savvy but many of you are on this thread. Could there be other entities that have an interest in this war continuing? I ask because tonight it was implied by one of my Ukrainian friends that the fight isn't just against Russia. I don't know what to make of his statement. Is he overthinking or am I being naive? He seemed to think this war could only end when 'they' want it to.

MissConductUS
And there would be no carpet bombing. There's no need with the precision-guided weapons we have.

The only people in this war who seem to want to bomb civilians are the Russians.

Does he perhaps mean the manufacturers of armaments?

Starlink is down on the front lines and it's affecting the Ukrainian comms.

Oh no! I wonder what’s happened?

Christ that thread on the chat board currently asking "will Putin use nuclear weapons" is not one for the anxious! Grateful for this measured thread.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist in that The US want this to continue. However after it's all over they likely will profit as the world wants to better arm themselves to defend against potential threats. The US is the leading manufacturer in this equipment.

I hope Zelinskeys comments to the BBC can slightly calm the nerves of people who fear an imminent nuclear attack. He stakes he believes they are not yet ready to do it yet. He says slow communications about nuclear weapons are creeping into the public in Russia (likely to get a feel for the reaction if they were used one would think) but he doesn't think they have decided yet whether or not they will be used. While I know it's still a threat it's certainly not as imminent that were going to wake up to hear they have used a nuke in Ukraine.

Guy on Sky news was very clear and stated as soon as Russia started to show signs of moving nukes or preparing to use them we would know about it straight away. Also why would he send in 100k of his new recruits only to nuke the areas in which they were going.

I honestly believe now Putin will want to just solidify his positions now until the winter which will give him time to train up his new recruits. The winter will likely be a long range shelling and drone war. The winter will also give Ukraine time to arm up with Weston weapons. This could lead to some serious fighting in the spring though if and end game hasn't been reached by then.

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime yes possibly.

Starlink is geofenced so that it only operates in areas that are clearly under Ukrainian control, for obvious reasons. The front lines have been changing rapidly as Ukraine retakes territory. When the lines stabilize and become clearer the geofencing will be adjusted and it will start working again.

First off, I am not in the least geopolitically savvy. There are easily more well informed posters who will hopefully come along soon.

As for who wants the war to continue, these will be groups that are strong enough to able to influence the war and have the most to gain and/or are affected the least.

China is an obvious one since it is affected the least and the able to influence the outcome if it so chose but is not doing so openly. The US is spending billions and supplying a fire hose of weapons and artillery to Ukraine, including masses of intelligence. This may weaken the US temporarily which China will be happy about. That said, the US will also gain in terms of the intelligence and knowledge of conventional warfare and Ukrainian innovation. This will change the shape of battles for years, decades to come. It is also an blindingly amazing advert for US weaponry. The US will earn it back.

The other obvious one, which is touted in other parts of the world, is of course the US. Seeing Russia completely degraded and humiliated whilst turning itself into a spent military force and destroying Russia's economy is to US advantage. It looks to me like the US more than the EU, NATO or any other country or grouping controls the tempo of the war. If the US wanted the war to end, it would probably have ended by now. Maybe that is what your Ukrainian friend is saying but not wanting to say.

Just my guess.

Good. Did this happen with the previous big breakthrough a couple weeks ago?