Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Though if you’re so badly organized you give men weapons and then leave them at a railway station with no unit to join I am not sure how well that’s going to work…

Exactly. This fear and panic, although understandable, is handing him a win. I have learnt so much through this experience to date, and I am confident in the collective West/NATO approach. Once again, we must not underestimate China/India and even Turkey/Saudi Arabia’s input. I am the first to criticise our domestic Governmental stance, but we are doing OK on Ukraine/Russia.

I found a link documenting the arrest of a Wagner member by the Russian military in Moscow. He ran one of the Telegram channels that was critical of how poorly the Russian army is performing.

twitter.com/nonrev321/status/1577980740029108224

So this seems like a further crackdown on dissent, but it does point to growing tension between Wagner and the government. One thing to remember is that Wagner is wildly popular in Russia, like a sports team. They sell t-shirts and merchandise, and lots of people buy them. So Putin risks alienating the public if he really goes after them.

Some of the more observant observers believe that Shoigu is being set up to take the fall for the failures at the moment. But it's subtle; Prigozhin is becoming more powerful and influential but there are still checks being applied to him, as a message. However, the fact that one of his Telegram channel people were arrested and the very next day Wagner announced it was setting up two more is not insignificant ...

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel Yes! my degree was in a subject that referenced a fair bit of history, sometimes the more social history and shit, life was tough then. Physically infinitely harder than now and infinitely more insecure. There were some good things that have been lost (more freedoms) on the way to our civilization but sheesh things were hard then.

One of the other things that is infinitely better than then is that women have more rights now and far more ability to fulfil their potential. Less physical violence too. Far better healthcare. Not everything is perfect now but it's sooo much better.

The Russians could not mobilize 200,000 people, but they were able to recruit more than 100,000 — Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine
He emphasized that the Ukrainian intelligence has exact figures of the mobilized Russians but will not name them.

I think that last time I checked more than 250,000 young men of military age had fled Russia to avoid the draft since mobilisation was declared on was it 21st September – not including the two who sailed to Alaska seeking asylum. That was maybe four days ago, so that figure will have risen since then.

The figure for American draft-dodgers who took refuge overseas during the whole of the Vietnam war (which lasted about twenty years, depending how you measure that) has been estimated at between 60,000 and 100,000; and America has twice the population of Russia. OK, in America it was possible to resist the draft and stay alive in American prison, and draft-dodging with eg bone-spurs or asthma was a lot easier than it will be at the moment in Russia....

I get a distinct feeling that Putin's War is not popular with the people who have to fight it for him.

PS: people who casually say "Biden makes gaffes" as if that defined his presidency and means he is an idiot must have been asleep between January 2017 and January 2021. Trump spent his entire presidency making stupid remarks and offending eg the whole of a lot of countries, like much of Africa ("shit holes"), most of the Muslim countries ("stupid towel head terrorists"), all of Latin America ("rapists and criminals") Denmark (he wanted them to sell him Greenland), and so on and on. The difference is that nobody in the White House dared say anything against Trump's latest imbecile gaffe, or dispute what he'd said, if they wanted to stay in a job for him; Biden has a less tyrannical approach. Oh, and another difference: Biden appears to be rational, and I am not at all sure that can be said of Trump. And Biden appears in the main to be reasonably truthful, which I am absolutely certain cannot be said of Trump.

Thank you for the link to that excellent Timothy Snyder article. Very clear-eyed and informative.

I don't think Putin listens to any other country and specifically on Saudi, they ve sided with Putin and cut oil output, at time when we need more not less.

The R4 review on the Cuban missile crisis yesterday was extremely scary, the US Air force guy who pushed very hard on Kennedy to launch all out nuclear war on the Soviets...... we all need to hope and pray there aren't similar people in the Kremlin or indeed the Whitehouse.

Bidens warnings are very sobering.

I was particularly taken by this sentence:
[Putin's] regime survival has depended upon two premises: what happens on television is more important than what happens in reality; and what happens abroad is more important than what happens at home.

This chimes with what I've been thinking about Putin's charm offensive in the BRICS countries and rest of Africa: ie that he might possibly lose his war in Ukraine but win his goals elsewhere abroad.

So it's very pleasing to read the rest of the paragraph:
It seems to me that these premises no longer hold. With mobilization, the distinction between at home and abroad has been broken; with lost battles, the distinction between television and reality has been weakened. Reality is starting to matter more than television, and Russia will start to matter more than Ukraine.

Snyder is talking about Putin in Ukraine, but I hope very much that reality will start to matter more than television (or other Kremlin messaging) in the rest of the world.

I think the Ukrainians are on this, although results may be not be immediate.

There are always people like that, we just need to hope that there are also alternative, more moderate, voices.

One thing that's often said for Biden is that he is good at surrounding himself with deeply knowledgeable people. The same probably can't be said for Putin but those around him are at the very least likely to desire self-survival above all else.

@Alexandra2001 I disagree, I DO think he listens to other countries. He may not act on or agree with what he hears, but I think he takes it on board. When it comes to the crunch, Russia cannot function entirely independently. The world is such an interconnected space now.

Well I don't think Putin feels the need to feel loved, like Trump and Johnson did, for example.

But I do think he feels the need not to be deposed or dead. So in that sense I'm sure other countries' opinions matter to him.

Igotjelly
One thing that's often said for Biden is that he is good at surrounding himself with deeply knowledgeable people. The same probably can't be said for Putin but those around him are at the very least likely to desire self-survival above all else.

Not only has Biden been said to surround himself with knowledgable people, he is said to listen to them and even to alter his actions in the light of what he has been told by them.

I think maybe once you have got into Putin's orbit you need to say yes sir no sir three bags full sir at all times in order not to jeopardise your chances of survival. I don't suppose instructing him on a subject you know about and he doesn't is all that safe.

I think Putin is actually incredibly vain and cares deeply what other people think about him, more than anything in the context of not seeming to be a strongman leader.

Look how offended and angered he was when some world leaders mocked his shirtless pictures. He threw his toys straight from his pram, didn't he? I think he maybe cares more about what people think than he lets on.

He's also well known for his love of botox....

I remember hearing as well something about how outraged he was about The Last Leg taking the mick out of him on Channel 4. Quite funny to think about him even knowing The Last Leg exists, let alone seeing any of it 😄

People were talking upthread about how interesting it’s going to be in a few years when more information comes out about what is now going on behind the scenes- I am REALLY looking forward to the ‘my life with Putin’ memoirs.

Talking of communications, Valeri Zaluzhnyi now has a Twitter account. I wonder why they have decided to do this now. It’s all good stirring stuff anyway.

Maybe Trump could write his 'My pal Putin' memoir when he's serving time in jail for selling nuclear secrets?

Have you got the handle for it please Countess? I couldnt spot him first off

I think Putin is actually incredibly vain and cares deeply what other people think about him, more than anything in the context of not seeming to be a strongman leader.

yes!

Still no birthday message from Xi and its nearly 10pm in Beijing. Surely that's got to be intentional?

Zaluzhnyi’s handle is ‘at’ CinC_AFU

It’s not verified yet but someone else high ranking in the Ukraine military who is verified confirmed it’s real and said they are just waiting for Twitter to do its thing.

Thanks Countess

Sky News:

"White House: No new intelligence behind Biden nuclear war remarks
The US does not have any new intelligence that sparked Joe Biden's remarks about nuclear "Armageddon", the White House has said."

Apparently Lukashenko gave Putin a tractor for his birthday.

This is so absurd that I can't think of anything to say about it.

Also Sky News, just catching up on news pages having left work!

Wonder what level of 'disagreement' this means... "you're messing up, what are you doing?" Or "Someone else could have handled this much better and this war would've been finished by now". Wonder who this member is?

"A member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle has voiced disagreement directly to the Russian president in recent weeks over his handling of the war in Ukraine, according to information obtained by US intelligence, the Washington Post reports.
The intelligence was shared with US President Joe Biden and is thought to be the clearest indication yet of disquiet within the Russian President's inner circle."