Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

What I said about the US must be caveated by the fact that the US is not one voice. It is not a dictatorship like Putin's regime. There are checks and balances and it is a democracy which means it is slower to act, it is more measured and acts on intelligence and diplomacy. To even say US decides this or that as if it acts as a hive mind is tantamount to conspiracy theory.

I think it's been happening throughout the war routinely. I'm not sure why it's getting amplified on social media now, other than the inherent craziness of social media and the huge changes to the front lines recently.

I'm glad you added this clarification. 😀

There was a lot of debate here early on about how much and what kind of support to provide. And there are isolationists in both parties, there are just very few of them. One thing that keeps support strong is that it is in the interests of NATO (not just the US) to see Russia degraded militarily. Finland is more likely to be invaded than Alaska.

As far as the US being able to end the war, we could only have done that by inaction, i.e. not supporting Ukraine and letting the bloody Russians erase them politically and culturally. Ukraine would have resisted, with or without us.

I honestly believe now Putin will want to just solidify his positions now until the winter which will give him time to train up his new recruits. The winter will likely be a long range shelling and drone war. The winter will also give Ukraine time to arm up with Weston weapons. This could lead to some serious fighting in the spring though if and end game hasn't been reached by then.

I think that Putin may well want that, but it's not realistic. The Ukrainians will keep pushing and retaking territory, and he doesn't have the resources to stop them. And don't underestimate Ukraine's ability to conduct offensive operations once the ground freezes. Winter works against the Russians as well.

I can't put my finger on why, but I think the Ukrainians have something big planned for this weekend.

Oh god is that back?! I partially blame the media for that this week. I’ve been catching up on ukrainecast and they keep using the phase “catastrophic success” about Ukraine’s advances, just an impossible situation.

Elon's unfortunate comment and his apparently even more unfortunate reputed conversation with Putin. Twitter has gone completely vicious towards him, which he doesn't like. Then the frontline Starlink blips.

I knew about the Twitter controversy but hadn't heard that he had possibly spoken to Putin. If he did that could cause some legal problems for him.

Let's hope that the Star link issue is just a coincidence.

When did he allegedly speak to Putin?

Twitter.

I think it's a wonderful source of thoughts and information (and distractions and vileness).

I used to be there as me. Then I burned out and when I came back it was as a very low profile near anon account using it for information and not contributing.

My no Twitter until lunchtime resolution generally holds.

I really don't see how this can end well for Putin, he is running out of options, unless western public opinion turn against arming Ukraine due to super high energy costs.

The super high energy costs in this country are down to government incompetence, waste and dubious cash for contracts during covid which has left the country in a shit financial state seemingly robbed blind.

The only thing the British government has got right in the last few years is the support of Ukraine.

Re: the tractor birthday present to Putin, someone told me that in the time of Khrushchev it symbolised prosperity, abundance and progress.

A sort of 20th century mechanical corn goddess, I suppose.

Not that it is easy to see what it represents today. You’d think the abundance of corn could symbolise Ukraine and be a bit of a touchy subject for Putin.

DC MY

Sorry for derailing but listening to Radio 2 news with my children (11 and 9) in the car there was a piece on the news on Biden's warning about the threat of nuclear war (fair journalism). The problem was that I was drawn into a conversation about nuclear weapons and MAD with young children and I had to be very quickly our forward a view that nuclear war was very unlikely.

I don't know if I did a good job in this but I wonder how many school children are getting anxious about this? I know children are prone to MH problems and it strikes me that hyperbolic reporting in certain media could lead to problems in a minority.

Do you think the side discussion about nuclear weapons should be aimed at adults only or is it a subject to broach with children and if so how?

I wonder the same. Linking in to the chat above about the other thread, someone suggested that the government (as in ours!) should be distributing cyanide tablets, just in case. I could have wept! People are at breaking point with all of this and their mental health is shot to shit after the past few years enough without bullshit like that being banded about.

sky News are reporting an explosion on the bridge that links Russia and Crimea. Russia have said it’s an fuel tank that caught on fire 👀Ukraine are saying an explosion

Lukashenko has an image in Russia of a harmless idiotic country bumpkin. Its partly how he gets away with not doing what Putin wants by being the bungling non threatening idiot.

Putin is saying we need your troops and you to participate in Ukraine. Lukashenko can't tell him piss off. Instead he plays him and makes lame excuses whilst not challenging him or appearing threatening.

A tractor is a perfect gift. It harks back to the Soviet era plus its none threatening and plays to the Belarusian bumpkin stereotype. Whilst also getting in a bit of a sly dig that 'there's food shortages, had you noticed? '

according to the Kiev post on twitter it’s actually collapsed
Kiev post twitter

Yes a section has collapsed!

Re Bidens comments.

Think about from a different pov.

Putin is threatening. He wants respect. The West laughing and saying he's bluffing 'doesn't afford him his status'. It's disrespectful.

Biden saying publicly 'we need to take this seriously' could be interpreted as a very real warning. However it could also be a way of actually calming the situation by showing deference and respect to Putin.

We have simultaneously Ben Wallace saying they believe its very unlikely that Putin will use nukes.

The two don't match in tone. Yet the US and UK are very much in step with each other on Ukraine.

We are either seeing a major difference of opinion between the uk and us Or we are seeing a coordinated management of Putin going on, by appealing to his vanity to a certain degree.

Remember, Putin wants to stay looking strong even though he's clearly weak. When he looks weak he is afraid and starts to act in a paranoid way. That's when he becomes more unstable.

Biden is feeding his ego to an extent by saying you are tough. It's diplomacy at a time things domestically are shit. The US want to prevent a show of strength 'necessitated' by the US laughing and poking him.

That's going to be a bit embarrassing and cause panic / shortages.

Oh dear.

Those reinforcements are going to get slowed down...

Reports elsewhere say it was last year.

Musk does or did have business links with Russia - there are claims some of the raw materials for the Tesla vehicles are sourced there, if that's the case the odd conversation between the two pre-conflict wouldn't be surprising.

Like @MissConductUS I've seen several sources suggesting the Starlink problem is down to the front moving so fast the geofencing hasn't been able to keep up with the situation on the ground.

@Igotjelly

yeah it's difficult. We need responsible journalism and obviously in a from way nuclear war is a an easy click bait head line. I think by overemphasising the prospects of nuclear conflcit we are in a way playing into Putin"s hands. By discussing nuclear war in the popular media then there will be a fear instilled in populations in the West and being democracies the fear of nuclear war will feed into government decision making. Could it be Russia hopes that pressure will be brought to hear on the Ukrnians to slow their advance or come to the negotiating table last there is a prospect of global escalation. I

I think POTUS should be careful in his statements as when he speaks his words reach billiions, not only in the US and they are taken seriously (unlike Putin"s rants). Liz Truss would not I assume make such a speech and our generals use very guarded nuanced messaging probably quite deliberately.

feeling a bit annoyed as I grew up in the 80s when there was a fear of nuclear war and fear of the USSR. Would prefer my children didn't have that fear but is this brandishing or being overprotective?

It's a truck that exploded, it stopped on that point in the bridge and then blew up. Andrew Roth suggests a suicide attack. Crimea council saying ukraine side is responsible.

Got to be a suicide attack. How Russia responds will be interesting.

According to Crimea Railway, a Russian state unitary enterprise, a fuel tank exploded at the tail of a freight train crossing over the bridge.

Suicide attack? Really?

Apparently the Russian authorities are preparing a ferry.

The capacity of a ferry is going to be much lower. You cant get food AND reinforcements in at the level required...