Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Good thoughtful posts by Ijsbear today.

I'm not allowing myself to be overly worried. Ukraine should just press on. The off ramp expired after a month when Putin could have unilaterally cease fired before Ukraine was extensively armed and he could have taken a temporary win that he then dragged out for years. That is past and he, specifically, has no off ramp.

I found this piece by Timothy Snyder on how the war ends interesting. I agreed with him ore in the earlier than later stages, but it did make me ponder.

snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war

more

I'll probably buy a Spanish paper today and drop by El Corte Inglés (the name always makes me smile).

That article was absolutely excellent, thank you. Really makes you realise that sometimes you can't see the wood for the proverbial nuclear trees.

Found that article i mentioned earlier: policytensor.substack.com/p/a-nuclear-zugzwang ("A Nuclear Zugzwang?
How should the US respond to Russian first use?)

Also see Mark Gubrud attached on his interpretation of Biden's remarks.

Yes! very big yes !

I suspect we'll hear (at last) about the more major Ukrainian mistakes. We don't hear about them now, but they have to have been happening! we might hear more about the Russian forces that were/are good. And analyses of exactly how far or close the prospect of nukes really were.

It will be interesting, and in fact a bit of a relief, to see a more thoroughly balanced picture come out. We -do- generally only hear about how bad the Russian army is and how great the Ukrainians are doing. Both those things are true, but there are nuances and at the moment, we don't hear about them.

It will also be really fascinating to hear about the political developments, frictions and arguments within the Kremlin itself. Those are so highly influential and we see only clues here and there.

Sadly I think that the savagery of the RUssian forces will also come more to the fore with the perspective of distance too.

About Twitter, I'm limiting myself now time-wise. It really does increase the anxiety levels. Personally I think that ordering a few survival basics is sensible, but I don't have the faith that our society will endure forever that many have. Beyond that, I'm just appreciating what we do have - stability and a reasonably functioning society. We're better off than most people in history, and in case that sounds sanctimonious, I really do mean it.

I was very anxious at the start of the invasion back in Feb (and when I say very anxious I mean it was so bad I had to start taking diazepam and even that didn't help) and I feel myself going down that hole again now. I'm terrified.

Oh @Cliveandclyde i'm so sorry to hear that, anxiety (reasonable or otherwise) is absolutely shit and I wouldn't wish it on anyone!

I'm immeasurably better than I was in Feb. I have this sort of grim determination now to enjoy my life, more than anything to get one up on Vlad and his desire that we all suffer.

In February I didn't leave the house for 6 weeks, I was that anxious. I barely slept. I don't want to reach that place again but nothing I'm reading is reassuring - people who are normally measured seem more concerned than they did.

I would really recommend the article that @MMBaranova linked to further upthread, by Timothy Snyder.

Only Kim Jong Un has wished Putin a happy birthday...... Xi noticeably silent?

Thank you, that's a very measured and reassuring article.

Really, no official congrats? :)

Nope, Sky and BBC reporting that the only World Leader to congratulate him is Kim.

We still have the full day to go but it'd be great if one remains unforthcoming!

Don’t forget it’s already half 5pm in Beijing!

Ooh yes!

Ijsbear · Today 08:18

Thank you so much again Ijsbear. Your summary of key news is invaluable. It is also lovely to see how your ducklings are getting on.

I was listening to an interview on Times Radio earlier on. I didn't catch who they were interviewing, but he was well informed and said that it is perfectly possible to launch conventional missiles at the nuclear launchers so Russia would be unable to deploy them. This is in the context of the nuclear missile train being moved at the moment. The west has surveillance and intelligence which tells them exactly what is situated where, so prevention is possible.

I don't think there is an off ramp for putin because he's deluded and very likely mentally ill.

Re Belarus. Apparently yesterday the Belarus security services were saying that Eastern European countries were preparing an attack against the country.

Now you could take this as suggesting that they are about to join Russia and send troops. But this doesn't actually make sense. Belarus is suggesting a direct threat to Belarus soil, so sending your men off to fight in Ukraine when you are under threat yourself isn't going to go down well with your own people.

More precisely, this is likely saying 'fuck off Putin, we aren't sending troops to bail you out of your own mess'.

Lukashenko sees no benefit to helping Russia further. Earlier this week he was talking about conscripting children to collect apples and grain as food shortages and high prices soar - in part due to Putin's actions and in part due to sanctions by the west.

Either way, it suggests that Belarus is starting to find things are getting tough domestically.

To point out that if Belarus is feeling the pinch to that degree, its hard to see the same not being true for Russia as well.

Mobilisation of men, possibly isn't just about manpower in Ukraine. Its stopping resistance at home too. Anyone inconvenient can be dealt with.

Interesting @RedToothBrush ! Surely Lukashenko will wish Putler a happy birthday......

I don’t think that sounds sanctimonious.
A few days back someone posted about a young mother they knew getting very ‘what kind of a world have we brought our children into?’
I didn’t get a chance to respond at the time but what I wanted to say was, my parents were both born into the darkness of WW2, in 1940 and 1944, my mum in London literally during an air raid. And yet they have turned out to be one of the most fortunate generations in human history.
There is a lot that’s good about the current world. I spend a lot of time studying the medieval and early modern periods and I know when I would rather live.

Remember that today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday and all is well.