Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Wording on 'off ramp' from Sky - "I'm trying to figure out what is Putin's off-ramp?" he said. "Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself in a position that he does not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?"

Ah that's interesting, I wonder why that was left out of the pieces I read (eg ft)?!

No it is, sorry I missed that. Hmm....dunno

I guess we do sort of need to read his words in the context of the mid-terms coming up and it being a fundraiser. (i.e. me and the democrats are a safe pair of hands to guide us through this crisis)

The tone seems to me to be saying "he's in a corner, he has no way out" so what's Russia going to do? It's Russia's responsibility to figure this out without endangering the world. What do you think?

Good point Jelly. He also said something about how he's the only man who will stand "toe to toe" with putin

I think we shouldn't underestimate however that the World is at a dangerous point. Hopefully one that we'll look back at in the future and think was handled well (like the Cuban Missile Crisis). I do also think we aren't at the CMC yet, during the CMC nuclear weapons were actively armed and ready to go.

Eurgh thinking about that makes me sick!

I think the off ramp term is exactly what it sounds like. We need a way to de escalate the situation from nuclear rhetoric. But make sure Putin is put off ever invading again (if reports are correct he does have long left anyway). As much as we hate to say it, diplomacy is the most likely way this ends. Yes Ukraine are on the front foot right now but there is no garuntee this will continue indefinitely, especially with the conscription. Best for Ukraine to negotiate now while they are in a position of strength than to wait for another Russian offensive.

@MagicFox

I can see your point about the reinforcement of current policy toward Russia and again a warning about the consequences of nuclear weapons.

A little part of me thinks that this is stating the obvious to some extent and if the Russian senior leadership are aware of the consequence of nuclear use why necessarily make this in public? Does it serve a purpose?

what does 'not joking mean'? Does it mean Putin has a forward pan to use nuclear weapons in the event of an imminent Ukranian victory? If Putin is not joking and serious how serious? What should the public do with this informafion?

the POTU S has intelligence non of us here have it indeed military pundits so I think his words need to be taken with seriously.

I actually think the work 'Armaggedon' was a mistake as it is comparable to tabloid fear mongering and an allusion to a Biblical battle does not give any specific factual military information but does possibly raise public anxiety.

Unless there's a lot missing from POTUS's comments in the FT piece I'm not sure we should assume, as they are, that Biden is trying to find a way for Putin to back down.

According to the FT what POTUS said was :

". “I’m trying to figure out: what is Putin’s off-ramp?” .... “Where does he find a way out?”

Personally I don't read that as meaning anybody in the West trying to find Putin an off ramp..

I think it's more a case of POTUS Biden wondering out loud (as are many) how the heck does Putin get himself out of this?

Apologies I had added the quote from other sources (it was missed out the FT) - "I'm trying to figure out what is Putin's off-ramp?" he said. "Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself in a position that he does not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?"

Read an amazing article this morning re diplomacy that I've lost - will try to find it. In meantime maybe the attached is at the heart of Biden's comments?

I think on the quiet that all responsible leaders will be trying to find Putin an off-ramp that doesn't mean compromise for Ukraine.

This is one of several elements that might bring this invasion to an end. It's not a matter of an off-ramp on its own, it's as part of an overall approach with several parts to it (sanctions being another, mil support a third).

Dealing with Putin is a matter of containing Russia now and supporting Ukraine while trying to manoever things so that Putin sees withdrawing as in his own best interests. Framing things so that actually he's made a huge gain for Russia (no matter if it's an illusion) is going to help.

@Hancox432 Best for Ukraine to negotiate now while they are in a position of strength than to wait for another Russian offensive.

Nah, the Russian offensives have dribbled away like a sad but destructive rabid raccoon trying to tear Ukraine apart.

Negotiating now plays into Putin's hands and Ukraine is only getting stronger, not weaker. Let's face it, it's become patently clear the Russian military (plus Wagner) is only fit for bullying much smaller and weaker countries.

Giving way to nuclear rhetoric is the best way possible to ensure that more of it happens. Every tin pot dictator will use the nuclear threat to get their own way - and one day, two tin pot dictators will fire at each other.

+++

ISW Key Takeaways

Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones is not generating asymmetric effects the way the Ukrainian use of US-provided HIMARS systems has done and is unlikely to affect the course of the war significantly.

The Wagner Private Military Company announced the creation of its own private Telegram channel on October 6, indicating that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may want a voice that is clearly his own to compete with milbloggers and possibly Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, who all have their own Telegram channels.

Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast near Kupyansk and operations to threaten Russian positions along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast on October 6.

Russian troops are likely establishing defensive positions in upper Kherson Oblast following the collapse of the Russian line in northeast Kherson.

Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 6 and likely made incremental gains around Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued to conduct routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Oblasts on October 6.

Local Russian officials appear to be frantically looking for ways to fund their mobilized units as the Kremlin increasingly expects local administrations to pay for the war effort from their own budgets.

The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 6 that Russian forces began the forced mobilization of Ukrainian citizens in Russian-occupied Kremmina and Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast.

Well I think i've had enough of Twitter today and its one 8am 😭Do not recommend a scroll for those who, like me, are of a nervous disposition.

@Ijsbear

I think on the quiet that all responsible leaders will be trying to find Putin an off-ramp that doesn't mean compromise for Ukraine

I suspect you are correct, but I have no idea how they''ll find one.

⚡️ Azov senior officer: Russian intelligence tried to recruit Azov soldiers to 'fight against US, West.'

⚡️ USAID to provide Ukraine with $55 million to prepare for winter.

⚡️ Ukraine sells patriotic bracelets made of Azovstal steel to support Armed Forces.
kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/ukraine-sells-patriotic-bracelets-made-of-azovstal-steel-to-support-armed-forces

⚡️General Staff: Armed Forces liberated 93 settlements since Sept. 21 in northeastern Ukraine.

⚡️General Staff: Belarus has sent almost 30 wagons of ammunition to Russian troops in Ukraine since Oct. 1.
Ukraine’s military also reported that Belarus sent 250 wagons of ammunition weighing more than 10,000 metric tons to Russian troops on the ground since Feb. 24.

UN migration agency says ‘terrible impact’ awaiting Ukrainians as Russia ramps up attacks on energy infrastructure (kyivindependent.com/national/un-migration-agency-says-terrible-impact-awaiting-ukrainians-as-russia-ramps-up-attacks-on-energy-infrastructure)
As winter approaches and Russia’s war continues, Ukrainians living near the front line are faced with the decision to flee or to confront Russian aggression amid Ukraine’s harshest months.

IAEA head visits Kyiv, says accident at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant 'very possible.'
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/iaea-head-visits-kyiv-says-accident-at-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-very-possible)
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the IAEA mission at the plant will increase from two to four people, who will rotate every 3-4 weeks.

⚡️General Staff: Russian forces blow up dam in Donetsk Oblast
The resulting flood hit the town of Raihorodok, with the pre-war population of 3,900 people, according to Ukraine's General Staff.

⚡️ Ukraine’s military has destroyed over half of Iranian drones Russia sent to Ukraine.
Ukraine took down 24 out of the 46 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones that Russia sent to Ukraine between Sept. 29 - Oct. 6, according to Defense Ministry.

⚡️Le Figaro: Russia summons French ambassador over arms shipments to Ukraine.
France has provided Ukraine with 18 Ceaser self-propelled howitzers.
According to Le Monde, France is preparing to send 6 to 12 additional Caesar howitzers to Ukraine.

Zelensky's staff forced to clarify statement after president suggests 'preemptive strike' on Russia (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelenskys-staff-forced-to-clarify-statement-after-president-suggests-preventive-strike-on-russia)
President Volodymyr Zelensky said the West should have carried out "preemptive strikes, so that (Russians) know what will happen to them."
Zelensky's spokesperson was forced to explain that the president was referring to sanctions, not nuclear weapons. [oops, he put his foot wrong there!]

⚡️ Ukrainian forces destroy 3 ammunition depots in southern Ukraine.

⚡️ Police: 534 bodies of civilians have been found in liberated Kharkiv Oblast.

👀 Russia wants a secret vote at the UN to condemn the 'annexation' of Ukraine regions — Reuters
Russia is lobbying for a secret ballot instead of a public vote when next week the 193-member UN General Assembly will consider whether to condemn Moscow's move to annex four partially occupied regions in Ukraine after staging so-called referendums, the report says.

📍Kharkiv region: The Russian invaders carried out several strikes against the city's industrial facilities over the night — head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration Oleh Syniehubov

British intelligence: Russia lacks personnel for the defense of the Kherson region and is probably planning to deploy mobilized reservists in this sector
Advancing to the south, Ukrainian units have moved the front line by another 20 km.
"The Russian command probably views the growing threat in the Nova Kakhovka sector as one of its most urgent concerns," the review says.

💥A UNESCO office will be opened in Kyiv by the end of 2022 — Minister of Culture and Information Policy Oleksandr Tkachenko

⚡️ Eight more ships loaded with 137.8 thousand tons of Ukrainian agricultural products left the Ukrainian Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi seaports for the countries of Asia and Europe — the press service of the Ministry of Infrastructure

📃 The European Union approved the 8th sanctions package against Russia — the European Commission
The package included:
▪️Oil price restrictions;
▪️Restrictions against individuals and legal entities;
▪️Trade restrictions. New bans on imports of Russian products, depriving the Russian economy of 7 billion euros;
▪️Sanctions against those trying to circumvent previous restrictions.

🪖 The Russians could not mobilize 200,000 people, but they were able to recruit more than 100,000 — Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine
He emphasized that the Ukrainian intelligence has exact figures of the mobilized Russians but will not name them.

The Russian Federation will send the first 150,000 newly mobilized Russians to replenish those units that suffered "insane" losses during the war — Minister of Defence of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov

📣 Members of the European Parliament have called on the EU member states and other countries supporting Ukraine significantly to increase their military aid, especially in the types of weapons requested by the Ukrainian government
This is stated in the European Parliament resolution adopted on October 6.

💡 The Ukraine's Parliament adopted the draft law on e-residency
E-resident status will allow foreigners to register a business in a few clicks, remotely develop it and pay taxes in Ukraine under favorable terms (5% of income, 15% of the amount exceeding the limit).

⚔️ The Ukrainian military is undergoing training in operating NASAMS and IRIS-T air defense missile systems — Yurii Ihnat, a spokesperson of the Ukrainian Air Force

🔎 According to the information available to European governments, the sabotage of the Nord Stream and Nord Stream-2 gas pipelines was most likely the work of Russian intelligence services

🇧🇾 Alexander Lukashenko has imposed a ban on price increases and business closures in Belarus starting today

🇪🇸 Spain will provide Ukraine with a new shipment of SUVs, ambulances, and medications, reports Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles
Eight light armored SUVs, two ambulances, and five tons of medications will be sent from the city of Alcala de Henares.

💶 Finland has provided the ninth military assistance package for Ukraine, reports Finland's Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen
The new military assistance package is worth 11.8 million EUR.

📣 The Ukrainian Parliament called for the world to support self-determination of the indigenous peoples of Russia

📌 Ukraine asked the US to provide more air defense systems in preparation for attacks on the infrastructure in winter, reports Politico

🖇 The United States does not plan to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of NATO countries that joined the Alliance after 1997, according to the State Department

(one duckling is a bit smaller than the others now, I think he's getting a bit pushed around :( but he's still healthy and well)

Yeah. He doesn't seem sane in any meaningful way any more. Still fox-like but more crazy. How do you find an offramp for that?

And if he's not given a good reason to stay penned into his fox-hole, he'll just try again later :/

This is the most bleak I think I've felt in months. 😞

Solidarity Jelly. This is the most dangerous point so the language and signalling is going to get scarier. Remember we're not privy to high level stuff, we have to trust that cool heads will prevail and that, for everyone involved, the unthinkable is just that despite brinkmanship and its rhetoric

Thanks ❤Thing is I know that rationally, just the irrational part of my brain takes over sometimes. I think its just the sheer horror of it.

Feel bleak too @Igotjelly . I find it troubling that world leaders are making ' off the cuff' remarks about matters of national security at times of such high tension and danger especially for Ukraine. I also think Twitter is extremely dangerous both in terms of escalatory language and also for our own resilience. As Pavel Podvig says, the key with nuclear is delegitimise deligitimise deligitimise. I don't see that happening enough.

Personally and from what I've now read of the speech and the other comments I'm not sure much has changed TBH, and the off cuff remarks aren't exactly a revelation...

Might the Russian use a Tac Nuke? Yes.
Could it escalate? Might, might not.
Is everybody wondering how Putin gets out of this? Yes.

Think its just to hear such stark remarks from the President, especially considering how measured his officials have been in recent days. Makes me wonder if there is a conscious effort in public statements to make things seem less risky than they really are (trying to negate the fear?) Although equally Biden is known for 'gaffs' and inflammatory remarks that the White House later walk back on (thinking for example posturing on Taiwan) so maybe shouldn't read too much into it.

Assuming we all survive this (and I still think we probably will!) I do think it will be a fascinating period in history to study, especially as all the details of exactly what's going on behind the scenes start to seep out.