Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Oh Lord, I don't think I can handle another speech by Putin :-(

I saw it in a couple of places on Twitter and then on Sky News but not being picked up elsewhere so maybe fake news?

@Igotjelly @MagicFox

This is what was reported. Not from Russian State Media so hopefully fake news...

"Russian President Vladimir Putin may address his nation later today, according to Russian media reports.
It's important to note that this isn't coming from Russian state media - rather from the independent outlet Readovka."

I really like the Doomsday Watch podcast - name aside its really insightful and measured. From most recent episode, Sky News have helpfully summarised why the West should stop being afraid that Russia will use nuclear weapons:

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-latest-news-putin-wont-launch-nuclear-attack-12541713?postid=4588988#liveblog-body

Key Quote (from Foreign policy expert Ian Bond, Centre for European Reform):

"Not only have the Russians not responded in any particular way to attacks on Crimea, but even on absolutely undisputed territory, in the Belgorod oblast - there have been Ukrainian strikes and the Russians have not responded to that in any particularly different way.
"We should stop frightening ourselves with the bogie man that if the Ukrainians drive the Russians out, the Russians are going to go nuclear, I just don't buy that."

Loving the ducklings.

And @notimagain thank you for that. He was an interesting bloke!

Peskov has denied rumours that there will be an address by Putin today.

I can step away from the chocolate I have been mainlining for calming down purposes.

Oh good 😂 him speaking does nothing for my blood pressure!

Neither does chocolate...

I think the 700k figure for Russians departing sounds pretty realistic. 200k went to Kazakhstan alone. By the end of this month, the impact on small and medium businesses in Russia, as well as a lot of internal logistical chains will be immense.

OTOH, 200k mobilised is probably a load of tosh. I doubt they even got 100k.

Ijsbear
That's brilliant about how the Ukrainian soldiers gave the Russians the run-around! The accents are slightly different but that isn't always easy to hear

Russia is a big place with lots of outlying areas where I expect the accent is as different from Moscow-Russian as a Ukrainian speaking Russian, so it probably isn't as noticeable as it might otherwise be. Not immediately obvious as "Ukrainian-Russian", but just "not-Moscow/mysortof-Russian", as it were.

I know, this whole thing has nearly driven me to pick up the cigarettes again after years of being smoke free.

Hanna Liubakova AT HannaLiubakova
There's no mobilization in Belarus but "something" is going on. We receive more & more information that lists are being created of those who served in the army & are eligible for the draft. The orders to compile such lists were received at universities, clinics, even state farms

The replies talk about Russia Annexing Belarus, these men being absorbed into the Russian army, concern that there will be an internal uprising if Russia loses the war, to keep up appearances with Putin, keep up appearances for a Western audience.

Keep in mind, if there is a nuclear weapon, Belarus could well be affected by it too, so Putin would have to keep Lukashenko very happy, not the other way around. Use of nukes isn't in Belarus's Lukashenko's interests however you want to cut it.

Putin has signed a decree making "corrections" to the mobilisation order - deckchairs on the Titanic anyone?

AFAIK, Belarus was posited as a target for a nuclear counterstrike by the US during the Obama administration if Russia were to use a nuclear weapon in Europe. It was seen as a less escalatory alternative to striking Russian territory. It's a horrible thought (and I think the overall consensus was that conventional strikes were a better idea) but were I Lukashenko, I would want to be pretty certain that nuclear use was off the table before getting involved.

Seems enormously risky move in any event, wouldn't mobilisation put Lukashenko at enormous risk of being overthrown?

Hromadske Int. AT Hromadske
Ukraine will join the joint bid of Spain and Portugal to host the World Cup in 2030, the Ukrainian Football Association announced.

The Associated Press AT AP
Belarus' opposition leader said Wednesday that she believes Russian military setbacks in Ukraine could shake the hold on power of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

I think my last tweet probably answers your question to degree...

I need to get googling to make sure but don't Russia and Belarus have a mutual defence agreement? If so, could the activity she describes be a sign that Putin might actually declare war? Goodness knows what good adding Belarusian troops into the mix would do though given Lukashenko's precarious position.

Yes it does 😁 thanks!

Hi perkingfaintly, the article I linked is nothing to do with Ukraine not being a nation in itself.

It is worth reading the actual article if you want some background to the conflict, it provides a lot of detail and you can check and cross check with other sources which it links.

It is probably a good idea to move away from monochrome notion of propaganda which is either wholly for or against one particular country.

I have never seen anything official from the Russian government which says Ukraine isn't a nation. The current regime in Ukraine has been criticised, the fact that the war from 2014 was not being dealt with in a humane way. Kremlin hasn't said it wants to take over west Ukraine for geopolitical reasons.

Yawn, here we go again, goddamn russian lie factories

With all due respect, if you think they are lies, post what you think the truth is, from a Kremlin source. You will not find one single Kremlin statement that it does not believe Ukraine was not a sovereign state. You talk about bad faith actors, but do you think you are a good faith actor? There are one or two hardline posters and many vulnerable posters here, and I believe some are being manipulated.

Enough is enough, I believe we should send the UN peacekeepers in to western Ukraine, for the protection of all civilians.

Going back to perkingfaintly comments "Azovstal defenders are not Nazis" - again with all due respect you are being disingenuous to suggest that extreme right was not a problem (is not a problem) in Ukraine, there are many sources. And many of the defenders had bodies covered in nazi symbols, though you may say that they had a change of heart and had the tattoos done in their youth?

scrollingleaves perking didn't even read the article I linked!

Isjbear back to your comment about me not summarising, both are quite long, they are both worth you looking at, and you can summarise for everyone if you wish

We should keep a list of Russian trolls on a sticky but they would just change their names and use the 'ol cut-and-paste

www.businessinsider.com/putin-denies-reviving-russian-empire-says-ukraine-not-real-country-2022-2?amp

So you wouldn’t consider Putin himself to be the Russian Government? 👍👍 okay then