Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Other than tactical nukes and conscripting office workers, I don't honestly think the Russians had contingency plans. Alternative plans require functioning military reserves, which they don't seem to have.

I read an interesting but unconfirmed report that much of the disarray among the Russians was due to deception by the AFU. On the last thread, I mentioned that military kleptocracy left the Russian forces without secure, high-band encrypted radios for battlefield use. The Russians in Kherson used unsecured walkie-talkies as you would buy in a sporting goods shop. The Ukrainians impersonated Russian officers and issued false orders and situation reports to real Russian officers. When they had them running around in circles, the Ukrainians jammed their radios so they couldn't communicate with each other at all. That's when the Russians disengaged and withdrew. So it's another example of how corruption crippled the Russians and how the Ukrainians innovated to take advantage of the situation.

That is brilliant. It must help that many Ukrainians know how to speak Russian but not many Russians know how to speak Ukrainian.

Just popping up to thank the well-informed posters on the thread. The OODA loop explanation was fascinating as was the long thread @Ijsbear posted.

Just marking place.

If Ukraine manages to expel the invader, will other international forces go in and man the borders to make it clear no re taking without a world war could happen?

I would prefer it to be a UN peacekeeping forces but obviously Russia is part of the un so could UK, Us , Poland, Romania etc all have a strong military presence on the borders?

I think it's a terrible mistake that this didn't happen before the invasion.

Terrible pictures coming out of the recently liberated areas. Boxes of teeth that have had gold fillings taken out of them (Nazis anyone?) and gas masks that have been reworked to allow them to bury people alive as a torture method. Its absolutely horrifying.

Don't want to post pictures as they're too much but @IuliiaMendel on Twitter has been posting recently. She's former adviser to Zelenskyy.

For a bit of light diversion from the diversion of the OODA loop it's worth having a look at what other significant innovation OODA proponent , John Boyd, came up with - a complete change in the thinking around air combat and fighter aircraft requirements that very much led to the development and production of western fourth generation fighters such as the F-16......

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy%E2%80%93maneuverability_theory

Not you average air force officer that's for sure - I'm not sure what else is on the list of things he came up with in his spare time.....I guess didn't give much thought to the common cold...(goes off to sneeze)

@MissConductUS

Mig-31 loss noted....that'll hurt...

I've read a couple of comments about the Kherson collapse which I think are pretty significant.

The first is someone talking about Davydov Brod and how the Ukrainians had been hitting fortified positions there since June without success. They simply were getting nowhere. This comment was that they felt that if the Ukrainians took Davydov Brod then they would advance very quickly because there wasn't really a deeper line of defence north of the river. That's very much how it seems to have played out. By all accounts the Ukrainians advanced 10km in 4hrs yesterday. That's significant. There simply was no resistance.

Another comment was a reference to Russian social media accounts and soliders saying they were retreating but didn't know where to retreat because there was nowhere to retreat to. The Bridges being impassable and under attack meant there was no where to go. There was a real sense of panic in what they said. This really reflects the details above and I think indicates that we are going to see a whole lot more movement in Kherson region.

If the Ukrainian army isn't facing resistance they wont be getting battle fatigued in the same way as in the East. It also means supply lines are easier to establish.

If the Ukrainians take Mylove then they start to have real range on the dam area and be a lot more accurate on what they can hit. That means the Russians are really going to start to struggle what land north of the river that they still occupy.

The natural thought process would be that ahead of winter there is a real chance of taking back everything in Kherson North of the river with the Russians probably wanting to dig in South of the river over the winter and use the natural defence points. That would make going south tougher for the Ukrainians in the spring, though that depends on how well other fronts progress in the next few weeks too.

Either way, I don't think the collapse in Kherson has finished and I think we will see more movement in the next few days.

Meanwhile in the east the defence line was the Oskil River in Kharkiv which they have breached. Once they did the Russians just legged it.

Further south the first defensive line was around Lyman. That's gone. The fall back line is the Kreminna-Svatove-Troits'ke line along Route 66.

Reports do firmly suggest that the Ukrainians have crossed the road in places and are out the outskirts of Svatove and seem to be moving to surround it. They also seem to be making moves to flank Kremmina from the north and north east. If that's true it means there is a resupply issue into Severodonetsk now and it's unlikely that the Russians are going to be able to hold the line here much longer. The question then becomes where do they fall back to and whether they have fortifications dug in for the winter. Its unlikely that they do. That is going to make it particularly tough. The Ukrainians having the momentum aren't going to be as concerned about counter offensive so the importance of being dug in is less significant. Plus they should be better equipped to deal with the weather.

It does beg a lot of questions about how far and fast things are going to move in the last few weeks before the cold really sets it. And just how desperate Putin is.

Yesterday whilst there was lots of noise about the movement of an advance nuclear train to the front, Nato was also stressing that was all they were seeing. There wasn't any thing out of the ordinary involving nukes sites themselves. There was a sense of making the point about smoke and mirrors. Whether that's true remains to be seen but there was a simultaneous alarm but also calm about the situation too.

I have wondered that too, or if they will simply kill all the inhabitants (since they really go for the medieval shit) but on balance I think not. They haven't elsewhere.

They were extraordinarily confident though. The soldiers were moving their families into Ukrainians' houses, either empty ones or throwing the Ukrainians out.

That's brilliant about how the Ukrainian soldiers gave the Russians the run-around! The accents are slightly different but that isn't always easy to hear

If Ukraine manages to expel the invader, will other international forces go in and man the borders to make it clear no re taking without a world war could happen over the radios and in a stress-situation you'd maybe not be paying 100% attention.

I suspect not unless Ukraine is allowed to join NATO. I suspect the Ukrainians will want to man their own borders because by God they can fight for their own independence. Plus the look of the thing - claims that other countries (the west) is occupying Ukraine. Supplying weopons so Ukrainians can guard themselves will probably happen. Several countries have promised that.

This is a great map of Svatove.

Its not a great place to defend from an advance from the west, as the map clearly shows...

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblast.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization is having more significant short-term impacts on the Russian domestic context than on the war in Ukraine, catalyzing fractures in the information space that confuse and undermine Putin’s narratives.

Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains in northern Kherson Oblast on October 4, beginning to collapse the sparsely-manned Russian lines in that area.

Ukrainian forces continued to make gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast west of Svatove on October 4, pushing past the Oskil River and increasingly threatening Russian positions in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued to conduct artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyiapole and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Oblasts on October 4.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 4.

The Kremlin effectively ordered local Russian administrations and non-Ministry of Defense institutions to fund a significant part of the mobilization effort from local budgets.

Russian security officials are attempting to maintain their domestic security apparatus as Putin’s partial mobilization drains the Russian security sector to generate additional forces to fight in Ukraine.

@Ijsbear

That's brilliant about how the Ukrainian soldiers gave the Russians the run-around! The accents are slightly different but that isn't always easy to hear

It's an old tactic and anyone using insecure radios is asking for trouble.

Once upon a time, before secure radios were common, Soviet Long range Bomber crews (all male) approaching the UK would often try and screw up communications between the fighter controllers on the ground and the intercepting aircraft by transmitting false instructions in very good English on the controlling frequencies...

It was therefore quite handy that the RAF had a large cohort of female fighter controllers.....

Sometimes the simple solutions are the best.

chuckles nice. I heard that female voices are considered clearer, too?

Yep.

Very interesting analysis on the recent changes in the Russian information space:

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2

Re the threat of a nuclear strike in the occupied zones, Putin has declared that these are Russian so he would be carrying out a nuclear strike on Russian land. How would the optics of that play out in the rest of Russia? How safe would Russians feel knowing that he could do the same to them at any point?
I think it would be the end of him.

That was fascinating, thank you.
It explained a lot I had been wondering about like the role of the Russian mil bloggers and how come they are allowed to report defeats.

Yeah, interesting how the changes seem to be indicating a problem between the three factions.

+++

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine advances 30 kilometers in Kherson Oblast, settlements liberated (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-ukraine-advances-30-kilometers-in-kherson-oblast-multiple-settlements-liberated)

⚡️The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated more than 50 settlements in the Kherson region

⚡️ Russia's Defense Ministry claims 200,000 men already conscripted for war in Ukraine.

⚡️Official: NATO secretary-general receives Ukraine’s bid for membership.

⚡️ Reuters: IMF to consider $1.3 billion in emergency funding for Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine to receive $500 million loan from World Bank.

⚡️Ukraine to receive 5 billion euros from EU in three tranches.
Ukraine will receive the macro-financial assistance package in October, November, and December, Reuters reported, citing European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis.

The World Bank has improved its forecast for the growth of Ukraine's gross domestic product in 2023 from 2.1% to 3.3%. And in 2024 it will reach 4.1%. This is reported in the Economic Outlook report [good news. Ukraine has been bleeding money]

⚡️Forbes Russia: 700,000 people have left Russia since mobilization began.
Forbes Russia cited sources close to Russia's Presidential Administration.
[good god, is that figure reliable? between mobilization and people fleeing, Russia's economy will be even more fucked]

⚡️Ukrainian forces reportedly liberate more settlements in Kherson, Kharkiv oblasts.
Davydiv Brod, Starosillia, Arkhanhelske, Velyka Oleksandrivka, and Myroliubivka.

⚡️Biden announces $625 million security assistance package for Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine's central bank chief Kyrylo Shevchenko resigns.
Shevchenko, the chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine, attributed his resignation to “health reasons”. [seems to have been some friction]

⚡️Russian parliament approves annexation of Ukrainian occupied territories.

⚡️Politico: EU agrees on Russia's oil price cap in new sanctions plan.

📊 About 10,000 Ukraine citizens have recently left the occupied Crimea — the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People

💡Western countries do not see signs of activity related to Russia's nuclear potential, writes Reuters [rather contradicting the Times article]

🔎 Tactical nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation are locked up in about a dozen warehouses across Russia, and it would take time to transport them to launchers, Bloomberg writes

📌 Russia is fully committed to the statement on the inadmissibility of starting a nuclear war, the Russian Foreign Ministry said [their lips are moving!]

🔸Iran did not support the annexation of the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions, despite the fact that it supplies the Russian army with combat drones and kamikaze drones
Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said that Iran emphasizes "full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states and recognizes this as a rule of international law and respect for the principles of the UN Charter."

❗️The first and second power units of the temporarily occupied ZNPP are mined
This was stated by the former head of the State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation Hrihoriy Plachkov.

🚫 Finland plans to isolate itself from Russia with a fence. The country has a land border with the Russian Federation with a length of about 1.3 thousand km

💡 One of the main objectives of Russia is to force disloyal people to flee from territories that Russia already considers its own. This is why it destroys vital infrastructure. Our power engineers, who are rebuilding it, are no fewer heroes than the Armed Forces [Russia has apparently been deliberately destroying electricity supplies]

🛍 H&M has begun the process of finally closing its stores in Russia

⚡️Lockheed Martin has brought a mock-up of the M142 HIMARS to the Army Weapons Show, which is currently taking place in Brisbane, Australia. To the question "Why so?" a company representative said that all free vehicles are undergoing combat tests in Ukraine.

⚡️Pentagon to send HIMARSs, howitzers, artillery rounds to Ukraine.
The U.S. Department of Defense provided a breakdown of its new $625 million security assistance package for Ukraine.
The package includes four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition; 16 155mm howitzers; 75,000 155mm artillery rounds; 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds, and 1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems.
Other items on the list are 16 105mm howitzers; 30,000 120mm mortar rounds; 200 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles; 200,000 rounds of small arms ammunition; obstacle emplacement equipment, and Claymore anti-personnel munitions.

kyivindependent.com/national/life-near-russian-occupied-nuclear-plant-i-dont-know-if-tomorrow-will-come

⚡️Lockheed Martin has brought a mock-up of the M142 HIMARS to the Army Weapons Show, which is currently taking place in Brisbane, Australia. To the question "Why so?" a company representative said that all free vehicles are undergoing combat tests in Ukraine.

... this seems to imply that there are more HIMARS in Ukraine than officially stated?

Reported today that the US still have seen no indication that Russia is prepared to use nuclear weapons despite the 'sabre ratting' (in my view that's 'using' the weapons as its weaponising fear but that's an aside). White House press secretary quoted as saying "We take nuclear sabre-rattling very seriously.... but we have not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic posture..."

Part of me questions whether they would tell 'us' if they did see anything however I think they probably would, particularly with how transparent they have been to date, including in the run up to the invasion, with releasing otherwise sensitive intelligence.

In other news Russian Ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov suggested that the most recent package of aid from the US to Ukraine increases the risk of 'direct' war between Russia and the West - Hot air from my perspective, they keep setting these red lines and then just moving them when the US/others cross them (remember when people panicked at even the thought of non-lethal aid being given?

Wow the wee duckies are getting so big! Makes my day to see them in your updates. 😊Love that life goes on despite all this shit.

Rumours (on Sky News amongst others) that Putin may address the nation today and change the status of the 'special military operation'.

They're huge! one isn't growing quite as well as the others which I'm a bit concerned about but he seems to be healthy otherwise. They haven't imprinted but they are tame =)

Putin can spin shit into gold thread so he's probably say that it was the Ukrainians or more likely NATO who'd carried out the strike.

It doesn't take away that it would be deeply unsettling for the population though. There are no real noises of overthrowing him and there are still pieces of evidence that many Russians genuinely believe the Ukrainians were invading/are Nazis/this is all NATO, so I think probably a small nuke might actually help him by him playing the big protector.

However, if the genuine facts spread far enough to be believed then it would probably really increase unease and unrest.

I reckon it would be made public if NATO saw any signs that Russia was changing its nuclear posture in any meaningful way. Otherwise it would be a missed opportunjty to pile massive international pressure on Putin to change course.