Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

I think Putin could do with a bit of my mandatory training...

Allowing Russian men to leave would have completely the opposite effect to what is needed imo: the ones who leave would be disproportionately the richer, more educated middle class, who would then be able to get off scot free while the cannon fodder from the east would still be there to be called up.

ye gods, the info from the telegram channels just keeps getting longer. Going to prune a lot of it.

🕹 Almost €1 million that Latvia has raised for Ukraine will be used for drones and vehicles for the Armed Forces — Ukrainian Embassy

In Mariupol, a supremely brave man or woman unfurled the Ukrainian flag at the top of a hill.

📣 Xi Jinping urged the Chinese military to prepare for "real combat" at a China's National Defense briefing

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan have prohibited their citizens from fighting in Ukraine — Anadolu Agency

⚠️ Russian troops damaged 349 heat supply facilities in Ukraine — Ukrinform [as winter is coming]

📍 Russian invaders destroyed refrigerated wagons with the bodies of their military as a result of a missile attack on a railway station in Kharkiv [oh god. Imagine having to clear that mess up]

📌 Kazakhstan will not issue permanent residence permits to Russian citizens without Moscow approval as a lot of Russians are trying to leave Russia after the partial mobilization was announced

📌 Ukrainian military commanders did not know they were going for an exchange — Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov

📣 "The government of Finland deems it necessary to put a stop to Russian tourism as well as transit of the Russians through Finland", says Sanna Marin, the Prime Minister of Finland

🔥 Military registration and enlistment offices in Russia's cities of St. Petersburg and Nizhny Novgorod were on fire today

🖇 Ukraine asked Israel to share any intelligence data on Russia's collaboration with Iran, reports Axios
Russians are actively using Iranian kamikaze drones on the frontline lately, which creates serious problems for the Ukrainian army.

According to the Polish government, as of the beginning of August, 390,000 newly arrived Ukrainians (that's about half of all new arrivals of working age) who remained in Poland already had a job. This contributes to the growth of the Polish economy. How Ukrainian women find work and build the economy of Poland - explained in the video.

🇩🇪 German Minister of Justice Marco Buschmann and Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock said that their country is ready to provide shelter to those Russians who oppose Putin's regime and are fleeing Russia due to mobilization

Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, and Russia's military is divided over how best to counter Ukrainian defenders — CNN

❗️ Many of the Ukrainian prisoners, released on September 21, were subjected to very brutal forms of torture — Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine
Some individuals are physically more or less in a normal condition, except for chronic malnutrition. Some individuals have suffered very brutal torture.

⚡️The United States is sending another batch of ammunition to Ukraine. Footage of the loading at a U.S. Air Force Base — Pentagon press service

⚡️ Mayor: Russian troops stage 'terrorist attack' in Melitopol to blame Ukraine.
Russian forces have staged a "terrorist attack," setting off an explosion in central Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, to accuse Ukraine of launching terror attacks before a pseudo-referendum there, Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported on Sept. 22.
Three Russian soldiers were killed as a result of the explosion; casualties among civilians are to be clarified, according to Fedorov.

⚡️ Ship carrying 30,000 tons of wheat for Afghanistan leaves Odesa.

⚡️ SBU: Russia's proxies in Donetsk Oblast plan to involve teenagers in 'voting' on joining Russia
This way, according to SBU, the occupiers are trying to artificially increase "the catastrophic lack of votes."

⚡️Finland seizes assets of Russian businessmen Arkady Volozh, gas tycoons Boris and Arkady Rotenberg.

⚡️Kazakhstan won't issue residency permits to Russians without Kremlin approval. Khazakhstan is treading a careful line with Russia. So people avoiding the mobilization will have to travel on and can't stay in Kazakhstan

⚡️Kuleba: France, Ukraine working on new Caesar howitzers delivery.

⚡️Pentagon: Putin's nuclear rhetoric will not affect aid to Ukraine.

⚡️Governor: Russian military strikes Zaporizhzhia, hits infrastructure.

⚡️General Staff: Air Force attacks 25 strategic Russian military sites.

Lot of troop losses and another plane and helicopter. There is a news blackout in Kherson Oblast so perhaps it's from there.

That's interesting regarding the messaging at China's National Defence Briefing - wonder if its fairly normal for that type of rhetoric (certainly when the new head of the UK armed forces took over he issued similar messaging) or whether its unusual.

perhaps both. The world is a great deal more dangerous than 8 months ago.

That's interesting regarding the messaging at China's National Defence Briefing - wonder if its fairly normal for that type of rhetoric (certainly when the new head of the UK armed forces took over he issued similar messaging) or whether its unusual.

Is this linked to Xi's assertion that he wants the army to prepare to be able to take Taiwan by force if necessary by the end of the decade? Being able to do it doesn't mean they will, but they want the capability.

Yes that might be the case Magic.

edition.cnn.com/2022/09/22/china/russia-mobilization-china-intl-hnk-mic/index.html

This article has some interesting analysis of the subtle changes in the Chinese messaging around Russia whilst explaining the importance for China of keeping Russia close.

Interesting analysis from Foreign Affairs this week. It was written before the mass mobilisation announcement, hence the 'if'. Snippet below:

"If Russia does mobilize, Ukraine and the West must stay calm and build on the successes of the past seven months. Putin’s Russia has been unable to develop a clear concept for its war, unable to learn from its mistakes, and unable to execute many of the functions of a world-class military. Mobilization per se would change none of this. The greatest dangers of mobilization might well relate to Russia more than to Ukraine. Russians might resist mobilization, in which case the regime would start to crumble, as the tsarist government did in 1917. Or Russia might well be defeated after a full mobilization, a debacle Putin would not survive. Beyond the Kremlin walls, this might sound like a happy ending, but a collapsed Russia would also upend the international system as we know it and lead to instability well beyond its borders. Nobody can predict what kind of regime might follow the collapse of a Putinist state in Russia."

I think China is warning its internal forces in case Russian unrest does grow. A collapsed Russia on its doorstep would be a headache.

I think Putin has underestimated Western resolve. Even if the EU unity crumbles, the main donor is America, which will not. I keep seeing parallels with the 1939 Winter War between Finland and Soviet Russia. The poor performance of the Red Army prompted Hitler to attack the country. I am rather thankful that option is not on the table for the West.

That list is a fake by the way. It doesn't exist, the regions are given quotas and then they decide who to call up.

Sky News reporting that the Chinese and Ukrainian UN delegations have met on the sidelines in New York. Chinese readout is that Wang Li (foreign minster) told Dmytro Kuleba that "sovereignty and integrity of all countries must be respected" and that all efforts for a peaceful solution in the Ukraine conflict must be supported.

Must sting in Moscow that the Chinese met the Ukrainians, considering that the Kremlin don't accept that Ukraine even exists as a nation.

Incidentally I hadn't realised that China does not recognise Crimea as Russian and considers it to be Ukrainian territory. This was reaffirmed as recently as 2021. www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3228896-china-confirms-nonrecognition-of-attempted-annexation-of-crimea-and-ban-on-contacts-with-occupation-authorities.html

Will be interesting to see if that changes following these sham referenda. I suspect it won't and they'll continue to be ambiguous.

China's relationship with Russia reeks of the type where they'd drop Russia on its ass as soon as a younger, hotter model comes along....

I rarely post because I have little knowledge, I come here to learn. But I’ve just finished Bill Browder’s book Red Notice about the murder of Sergei Magnitsky and how the Magnitsky Act came about.
I knew a fair amount previously but not the details, which are horrifying. It also explains a lot about the learned helplessness of the Russian people in the face of astonishing corruption and violence. Other than that it’s a terrific read, better than any thriller.
Browder says he wants the story shared, so if you haven’t read it, I thoroughly recommend it.

Will add it to the list for sure!

Kadurov refused to mobilise anyone, claiming Chechnya has already "overfullfiled the plan by 264%"

Not often I say this, but fair play to Kadyrov.

I think he's way more powerful than Putin would like him to be.

He deffo would be if he gets away with this!

@Igotjelly thanks for the information. I did not know China did not recognise Crimea as Russian territory. They were probably avoiding being sanctioned. Very interesting.

If, as seems a possibility, there is major unrest in Russia, I would want to keep my powder dry and as many troops as possible back in barracks.

I think he can definitely see which way the wind is blowing.

This will cause further unrest in Russia.

Timing of the POW swap couldn't have been better!

The clown has been indulged so long that he's starting to become the eminence gris?

China's relationship with Russia reeks of the type where they'd drop Russia on its ass as soon as a younger, hotter model comes along....

hehehe. Or kept on the back burner as the manipulative, destructive fallback?

Reading a bit further about situation in Chechnya - apparently some mothers went out to protest against mobilisation and got detained. It looks like the protest didn't really happen, but Kadyrov backed off and announced no one will be called up. Apparently he's done it out of fear of civil unrest.

Good point. I assume Kadyrov functions almost as Putin's private army. Putin would want him and his troops in Moscow.

@OwlsDance when you say the timing of the Ukraine POW swap could not have been better, do you mean for the safety of the POWs or is there a possibility they would cause trouble for Russia if they were in Russian captivity whilst unrest took place.

No, I meant that the announcement about prisoner swap coincided with announcement of mobilisation.

So Putin is asking to go fight those bastard nazi Ukrainians, while at the same time the Azov commanders that were portrayed as personification of all things evil, are exchanged for Putin's pal Medvedchuk. Not to mention that Russia gave up 215 people for 56, so they got 4 times less people back.

The above caused a lot of anger in patriotic Pro war Russians.