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Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

995 replies

MagicFox · 22/09/2022 06:51

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

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whenwillthemadnessend · 22/09/2022 21:24

Thank you for thread. Place marked

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minsmum · 22/09/2022 22:04

I don't agree that we should welcome Russians fleeing conscription, they are not against the war, they just want other people to die not them. It is their country they could change things not run away while despising everything the West stands for

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BoreOfWhabylon · 22/09/2022 22:08

Thanks for the new thread. I rarely post but read avidly.

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MissConductUS · 22/09/2022 22:33

Oops, I missed the transition, so I'll repost this.

Here's a great interview with the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs on The Late Show, a popular American news and talk show. He offers views on morale in Ukraine, the nuclear threats from Putin and what we've learned from the cold war. I assume he was in New York for the UN General Assembly when this was recorded. If you want a clue about how Americans feel about Ukraine, listen to the audience's reaction at the beginning and end of the interview. The standing ovation starts at about 1:30.

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ScrollingLeaves · 22/09/2022 22:33

Thank you MagicFox.

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Ijsbear · 22/09/2022 22:46

with the reports that actually it's a full mobilization on the not-so-quiet ... I can't help thinking that Ukraine is going to need more help, much more help. Even if the conscripts are out of training, out of equipment and after the first week out of morale, plus arriving piecemeal, the sheer number of bodies is going to be a big problem.

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maeveiscurious · 22/09/2022 22:47

There has been an increase of searching on "how to break an arm" they are looking for "blighties" to avail the war

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expandabandband · 22/09/2022 23:04

Hello. Thank you for new thread.

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Hillsmakeyoustrong · 22/09/2022 23:12

@MissConductUS and the difference between the Ukrainian Minister and idiots like Lavrov is breathtaking. I thought he was wonderful and represented Ukraine with humility and honour.

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DrBlackbird · 22/09/2022 23:15

PMK for new thread.

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purpleboy · 22/09/2022 23:31

minsmum · 22/09/2022 22:04

I don't agree that we should welcome Russians fleeing conscription, they are not against the war, they just want other people to die not them. It is their country they could change things not run away while despising everything the West stands for

How do you think the average Russian can change things? Have you not see the 1000s being arrested for protesting?
These Russians did not ask for the war anymore than the Ukrainians did.

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blueshoes · 22/09/2022 23:47

MissConductUS · 22/09/2022 22:33

Oops, I missed the transition, so I'll repost this.

Here's a great interview with the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs on The Late Show, a popular American news and talk show. He offers views on morale in Ukraine, the nuclear threats from Putin and what we've learned from the cold war. I assume he was in New York for the UN General Assembly when this was recorded. If you want a clue about how Americans feel about Ukraine, listen to the audience's reaction at the beginning and end of the interview. The standing ovation starts at about 1:30.

@MissConductUS the US audience's standing ovation was spontaneous and heartfelt. You cannot help but be moved. Paraphrasing parts of the interview below.

Host says there is anxiety around the nuclear threat. Ukraine Minister says we should not allow fear to paralyse ourselves. It is ok to be afraid. We are human beings. It is normal not to have fear and to be afraid. I fear for my children but paradoxically I have no fear towards the enemy. I left my fear at the border and millions of Ukrainians have abandoned fear. When my president said I am not leaving here I am staying in Kjiv I am staying with my soldiers, that is the moment when we as a nation put fear aside. We know how to win and we will.

He spoke of the tears and joy of liberated people who said they had almost lost hope but still waited and now you [Ukraine soldiers] are here. It makes him and soldiers work so much harder to liberate those in occupied territories.

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LoveLarry · 23/09/2022 00:04

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 22/09/2022 23:12

@MissConductUS and the difference between the Ukrainian Minister and idiots like Lavrov is breathtaking. I thought he was wonderful and represented Ukraine with humility and honour.

I can't believe that lavrov had the nerve to say what he did at the UN

The sheer cheek of it.

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MissConductUS · 23/09/2022 01:14

I'm getting an error playing the embedded video. If that's happening to you too, just go to YouTube and search for "Ukraine Minister of foreign affairs" and it comes right up.

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notimagain · 23/09/2022 07:08

RedBea · 22/09/2022 21:07

would it be possible for the west to say to Russian men who do not want to fight to leave into NATO territory? Then he’d have very limited options as there wouldn’t be much of an army left. I can’t imagine many people wanting to be sent to die. Would this even work?

Given the context IMHO nations need to be careful in throwing the doors open to very large numbers of young Russian males.

The Soviets, so no doubt the Russians, had a doctrine of using sabotage and other covert acts in the run up to possible hostilities and in the UK we've already seen how some of their "tourists" and Cathedral spotters can behave.

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Mb76 · 23/09/2022 07:24

purpleboy · 22/09/2022 23:31

How do you think the average Russian can change things? Have you not see the 1000s being arrested for protesting?
These Russians did not ask for the war anymore than the Ukrainians did.

@minsmum i agree with you 100%

@purpleboy the average Russian on their own perhaps can’t change much but in their millions they could. 1000 arrests are a drop in the ocean given the size of the population in Russia. This country will not change until majority of the population will rise against their mad rulers. They’ve do it in 1917 for better or worse, they can do it again!

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Ijsbear · 23/09/2022 07:31

notimagain · 23/09/2022 07:08

Given the context IMHO nations need to be careful in throwing the doors open to very large numbers of young Russian males.

The Soviets, so no doubt the Russians, had a doctrine of using sabotage and other covert acts in the run up to possible hostilities and in the UK we've already seen how some of their "tourists" and Cathedral spotters can behave.

Absolutely this. 100%.

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knittingaddict · 23/09/2022 07:31

MagicFox · 22/09/2022 17:04

Stories of men being pulled out of beds and classes in Russia, disproportionally in minority areas, alongside an unclear treaty clause suggest that this is really general, not partial, mobilisation

On one of the latest Ukrainecast episodes they were saying that the paperwork for the mobilisation just says "mobilisation", not "partial mobilisation". They suggested that the Russian announcements were downplaying what was actually happening, which makes sense.

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Ijsbear · 23/09/2022 07:32

About rising up, as someone commented yesterday when you see the videos of protestors being arrested - none of the other protestors help. The police can just cart people off one by one to prison. No one comes to their aid. As a group they'd be far more effective.

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OwlsDance · 23/09/2022 07:47

There's absolutely nothing in that new law about mobilisation about how many people will be called up, and there's nothing in there about any of the criteria that Putin mentioned, ie it doesn't say it's people with military experience only.

One thing to always remember about Putin and his mob is that they always lie. And if they say they won't do something, they almost certainly will.

So yes, it's absolutely full mobilisation. If some people think they're safe because they don't meet the criteria, they are very much deluding themselves. No one is safe.

The regions will receive quotas for how many people they need to provide. They will of course call up all the reserves first, but if they don't have enough, they'll call up anyone.

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OwlsDance · 23/09/2022 07:50

Ijsbear · 23/09/2022 07:32

About rising up, as someone commented yesterday when you see the videos of protestors being arrested - none of the other protestors help. The police can just cart people off one by one to prison. No one comes to their aid. As a group they'd be far more effective.

You get very harsh punishment for as much as touching a policeman.

They need more people to come out. Thousands. Strength is in numbers. Unfortunately a lot of Russians have this learned helplessness syndrome, and don't believe they are able to change anything. Well, individually they can't. But they can if they all take to streets.

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Ijsbear · 23/09/2022 08:31

Hm, yeah, learned helplessness is exactly what's going on isn't it. Not sure in that case that they will, at least until the bereaved mothers mobilize en masse.

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DuncinToffee · 23/09/2022 08:38

Still reading and trying to keep up, thanks for the new thread

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Igotjelly · 23/09/2022 08:40

Mobilisation in Russia seems very clearly to be asymmetrical, with far more men being called up from rural areas than from the cities. Given the ethnic make-up of those areas some commentators are pointing to potential ethnic cleansing of the Russian population through this mobilisation.

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Ijsbear · 23/09/2022 08:45

Lot of ISW Key Takeaways today


The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the Kremlin’s internal quota of mobilized personnel, but is unlikely to generate effective soldiers and is prompting significant domestic backlash for little gain.

The Kremlin is openly not adhering to its promised conditions for partial mobilization.

Kremlin quotas will likely force local officials to mobilize men regardless of their military status and will likely incentivize the mobilization of ethnically non-Russian and immigrant communities at a disproportionate rate.

The Kremlin likely attempted to downplay a prisoner swap with Ukraine that is deeply unpopular among Russian nationalists and milbloggers by undertaking the swap the same day Putin announced partial mobilization.

IAEA negotiations around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are unlikely to significantly improve the situation at the plant and may provide an opportunity for Russian forces to stage provocations.

Ukrainian forces likely continued limited counteroffensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and continued attacks toward Lyman on September 22.

Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast on September 22 and reiterated that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operational-level interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the frontlines in Donetsk Oblast on September 22.

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks west of Hulyaipole on September 22 and continued routine strikes throughout western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian occupation forces are hurriedly setting conditions to hold sham annexation referenda across occupied Ukraine from September 23-27.

Russian officials created polling stations in parts of Russia, ostensibly to enable displaced (in many cases meaning kidnapped) Ukrainian residents of occupied territories to “vote.”

Russian occupation officials in Ukraine likely expect to be forced to provide personnel to meet Russian regional mobilization quotas after the Kremlin illegally annexes occupied Ukrainian territories.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 31
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