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Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

995 replies

MagicFox · 22/09/2022 06:51

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

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katem98 · 22/09/2022 08:37

Here's the copy n paste from BBC at 00:07 this morning. Maybe there has been an update since Smile

"Finland refutes claims of long queues at border with Russia.
Following Vladimir Putin’s announcement earlier of a call-up for thousands of extra troops to fight in Ukraine, rumours have been circulating online that people are fleeing Russia and crossing the border to neighbouring Finland.
A Twitter post that purports to show a border queue stretching “over 35km” (16 miles) has been liked and retweeted many thousands of times.
However, the video embedded in the tweet was originally posted two days ago on a TikTok account and is unconnected with Mr Putin’s speech.
Such has been the attention caused by the tweet that a senior official from the Finnish border authority, Matti Pitkäniitty, has posted his own tweet denying there is anything abnormal about the situation at the border."

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Cillery · 22/09/2022 08:43

katem98 · 22/09/2022 08:27

Do you have a link for this? I'm sure I read last night on either BBC or Sky that the build up on Finlands border pictures were actually from a TikTok created a couple of days before Putin made his speech and that the border control officer reported nothing out of the ordinary?

The Telegraph

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MagicFox · 22/09/2022 09:02

Iran using this fully to its advantage and positioning itself as part of a russia-China-Iran axis: www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-717805

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Natsku · 22/09/2022 09:02

A bit busier than it has been but nothing too out of the ordinary. And its really quiet right now judging by the traffic camera

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Igotjelly · 22/09/2022 09:07

MagicFox · 22/09/2022 09:02

Iran using this fully to its advantage and positioning itself as part of a russia-China-Iran axis: www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-717805

A few thoughts here.

  1. Russia waving its metaphorical willy about has shown the 'power' that just possessing nuclear weapons holds.
  2. Its the Jerusalem post so we do need to be mindful that it's most certainly not without bias.
  3. Iran have form for throwing their arms around as a way of trying to get something they want in negotiations.
  4. There is significant internal unrest within Iran at the moment, especially following the death of Mahsa Amini and the regime will want to draw focus away from that.
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LoveLarry · 22/09/2022 09:08

Thanks for the new thread

Interesting day yesterday.

The release of the Mariupol defenders is really causing a stir with the russians. Some commentators confused over

Denazification
Azov capture
Azov release

They can't understand it.

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Hillsmakeyoustrong · 22/09/2022 09:32

Thanks for the new thread.

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Igotjelly · 22/09/2022 09:42

LoveLarry · 22/09/2022 09:08

Thanks for the new thread

Interesting day yesterday.

The release of the Mariupol defenders is really causing a stir with the russians. Some commentators confused over

Denazification
Azov capture
Azov release

They can't understand it.

From a logical point of view it makes absolutely no sense. Russia however is not logical. Their entire enterprise in Ukraine is illogical (to denazify a nation led by a Jewish man).

Can't remember which commentator it was that pointed out that its best not to try and engage logically with Russia and its arguments because they will simply change the narrative.

Linked to that I saw this and just thought it was a great idea!
www.politico.eu/article/nafo-doge-shiba-russia-putin-ukraine-twitter-trolling-social-media-meme/

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MagicFox · 22/09/2022 09:54

Thanks for your response to that JP article Jelly - great points

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TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 22/09/2022 11:11

Thank you for the new thread and thank you to everyone posting for the reasoned, thoughtful, detailed, informative discussion.

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OwlsDance · 22/09/2022 11:31

Thanks for the new thread

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Muminabun · 22/09/2022 11:34

Fladdermus · 22/09/2022 07:02

Hopefully the upcoming winter will finish off the Russian army. I know that historically it's the Russians who benefit from the cold but this time they're a rag tag bunch, ill equipped and poorly trained I can't see them doing well in sub zero temperatures.

On the ground Russians will be fighting in hostile territories with many small acts of partisanship. Ukraine will be enjoying local support, words, deeds, food, equipment, a million acts of help along the way. Russia will be getting soap bars in their fuel tanks and a million small cuts from locals. I think this matters and I think this can be as powerful as any nato weapons.

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Ijsbear · 22/09/2022 11:39

went and posted this on the old thread, doh!


ISW Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announced “partial mobilization” will not materially affect the course of the war in the coming months.

Putin did not explicitly threaten to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues counter-offensive operations to liberate occupied areas after Russian annexation.

Ukrainian forces likely continued offensive operations around Lyman.

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes north and east of Kherson City as part of an operational-level interdiction campaign against Russian logistics, military, and transportation assets in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity on September 21: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border around Vysokopillya.

Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing crypto-mobilization efforts regardless of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization.

Russian-appointed occupation administrators are likely increasing law enforcement and filtration measures in occupied areas of Ukraine in preparation for Russia’s sham annexation referenda.

+++

⚡️ Russian media: Armenia, Vietnam and Kazakhstan suspend use of Russian Mir cards [but the Russian federation is thriving!]

⚡️ Ukrainian intelligence: Russia starts conscripting plant workers in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the proxies have also set up a military training camp for prisoners brought from Russia to fight in Ukraine near occupied Torez.

⚡️Mayor of Russian-occupied Melitipol urges local men to evacuate amid mobilization in Russia.

⚡️ UK to give Ukraine $500 million to help it buy more natural gas.

⚡️General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel Russian attacks near 5 settlements.

⚡️North Korea denies selling weapons or ammunition to Russia.
U.S. officials earlier said Russia was in the process of purchasing millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea for its war in Ukraine.
[I don't think NK would deny selling arms if they thought Putin was winning]

⚡️Pro-Kremlin politician Viktor Medvedchuk handed over to Russia in exchange for 200 POWs.

⚡️AFP: Top EU diplomats hold emergency meeting to discuss new Russia sanctions.
⚡️Reuters: EU ministers agree on new Russia sanctions, more weapons to Ukraine.
The ministers also agreed to increase weapons supplies to Ukraine. The package could be formalized in October when the ministers meet next.

⚡️General Staff: Russia forcibly moves residents out of settlements in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

🛂 Russians are going to Finland en masse after the announcement of partial mobilization — the head of the Consular Department of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland for Helsingin Sanomat
"The number of visitors has increased significantly. There are applications indicating that there is a desire to leave Russia, but the conditions for return are not fulfilled. Then the decision to issue a visa is negative."

🛠 Rosmorport is forced to use part of the ships of the fleet as donors, said Vasily Strugov, Deputy General Director of the company. In particular, the Russians plan to dismantle the Ermak icebreaker in order to repair the Krasin icebreaker

🎫 The websites of Russian airlines have run out of tickets for the nearest flights to visa-free countries, including Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan — Russian RBC

🇱🇹 The Lithuanian Defense Ministry puts its troops on high alert due to partial mobilization in the Russian Federation

⛔️ 1,026 people in 38 cities of the Russian Federation were arrested as a result of anti-war protests
— Russian human rights media project “OVD-Info”
(so that's a few hundred recruits already)

💪 Dmytro Kozatskyi, the author of the photo from the Azovstal plant, was also returned from captivity.

📍President Zelensky said that the five commanders-defenders of Mariupol would remain in Türkiye until the end of the war. These were the terms of the exchange.
In Türkiye, they will be under the personal protectorate of the Turkish President and in comfortable conditions. They will also have the opportunity to hold personal meetings.

🛒 Amazon canceled the commission for Ukrainian businessmen who sell goods to European countries and the UK for a year

🇺🇦 Ukrainian student of the Kyiv Polytechnic Institute Ihor Klymenko became the best student in the world according to the Global Student Prize. He received a golden statuette during UN week in New York. Together with it – 100 thousand dollars for the development of his invention – a mine-clearing robot Quadcopter Mines Detector

❗️ The so-called "court" in the occupied Crimea sentenced Nariman Dzhelyalov, deputy chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, to 17 years in prison, who was detained a year ago in a fabricated sabotage case.

🇨🇳 China calls on Ukraine and Russia to ceasefire and resolve the conflict through dialogue, the country's Foreign Ministry

👮‍♂️ In Germany, investigators from the Federal Department of the Federal Police conducted a search of the businessman and oligarch of Uzbek origin Alisher Usmanov, who is considered one of the pillars of the regime of Vladimir Putin, writes Spiegel

President Biden addressed the UN General Assembly. Main points:

▪️Russia has shamelessly violated the basic principles of the UN Charter;

▪️This war is about extinguishing Ukraine's right to exist as a state and the right of Ukrainians to exist as a people;

▪️ If nations can pursue their imperial ambitions without consequences, then we endanger everything this very institution stands for;

▪️No one has threatened the Russian Federation, and no one, but Russia, has sought conflict;

▪️Putin is making irresponsible nuclear threats;

▪️The decision to mobilize is a mistake. This is bad news for the Russian people;

▪️The United States is working closely with its allies to prevent a potential Russia’s attack on NATO territory;

▪️The U.S. wants the war to end on fair terms. We will stand in solidarity with Ukraine in the future.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 31
Ukraine Invasion: Part 31
Ukraine Invasion: Part 31
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Ijsbear · 22/09/2022 11:41

Muminabun · 22/09/2022 11:34

On the ground Russians will be fighting in hostile territories with many small acts of partisanship. Ukraine will be enjoying local support, words, deeds, food, equipment, a million acts of help along the way. Russia will be getting soap bars in their fuel tanks and a million small cuts from locals. I think this matters and I think this can be as powerful as any nato weapons.

right at the beginning, a number of experts said that holding Ukraine would be a harder job than taking it. In the circumstances, that means about impossible =) (Unless they mass-deported everyone, which tbh I could see. Or worse).

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JacquelineCarlyle · 22/09/2022 11:42

Fladdermus · 22/09/2022 07:02

Hopefully the upcoming winter will finish off the Russian army. I know that historically it's the Russians who benefit from the cold but this time they're a rag tag bunch, ill equipped and poorly trained I can't see them doing well in sub zero temperatures.

We can but hope! Absolute fuckers. Long live Ukraine.

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MagicFox · 22/09/2022 12:15

You might find this podcast interesting: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/intelligence-squared/id708371900?i=1000580234110

How the West can stop Putin

Mikhail Khodorkovsky has experienced first hand the wrath of Vladimir Putin. Once an oil tycoon and the richest man in Russia, Khodorkovsky was arrested at gunpoint before parliamentary elections in 2003, stripped of his oil wealth and jailed on politically motivated charges of fraud and tax evasion after funding opposition parties. Khodorkovsky spent nearly ten years in prison. In September 2022 he came to Intelligence Squared to share his unparalleled insight into the inner workings of Putin’s regime. Drawing from his new book, The Russia Conundrum, Khodorkovsky reveals how Russia really works and how the West can truly begin to blunt the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions. Joining Khodorkovsky in conversation is journalist, co-author of The Russia Conundrum, and former BBC Moscow correspondent Martin Sixsmith. Our host for this discussion is journalist and presenter of BBC Radio 4's World Tonight, Ritula Shah.

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MMBaranova · 22/09/2022 12:58

Who replaces Putin?

He can't go on for ever, though it might be for years. Then again it might be sudden and some people will tell you they foresaw it all the time.

It is unlikely to be anyone significantly better or worse, given the pool available to draw on. It might not be one person. There can be something of a triumvirate or similar for a while before one member heads the pack. Putin and Medvedev used to do a sham double act. There might be a more genuine sharing of power.

His replacement would allow for a reset and for him to be blamed for various failings, perhaps with the excuse that his medicines contributed to unwise decisions.

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Igotjelly · 22/09/2022 13:00

Wouldn't it be ironic if he fell out of a window....

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Hillsmakeyoustrong · 22/09/2022 13:03

I've started it @MagicFox as I'm lying in bed with a heavy cold. Had no idea that Putin was in the KGB from the age of 17! An organisation who considers itself to be above the law and accountable to none. He is the product of that. Khodorkovsky says the West needs to stop asking other Westerners on how to understand Putin. This reinforces my own beliefs that he is an alien (a very bad one) in our world and we need Russian help understanding his MO.

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minsmum · 22/09/2022 13:05

mobile.twitter.com/henkvaness/status/1572790646011740160 the Netherlands announcing a referendum on Russia joining them. After all if Russia can do it.....

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Hillsmakeyoustrong · 22/09/2022 13:09

Forced mobilisation has started in Kherson since Putin's speech.

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MMBaranova · 22/09/2022 13:25

Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said– a highly unusual management tactic in a modern military that these sources said hints at the dysfunctional command structure that has plagued Russia’s war from the beginning.

Not only is his meddling sure to help Ukraine, it will allow a successor to place blame on him.

edition.cnn.com/2022/09/22/politics/russia-military-divided-ukraine-putin/index.html

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Theskyisfullofbirds · 22/09/2022 13:42

MMBaranova · 22/09/2022 12:58

Who replaces Putin?

He can't go on for ever, though it might be for years. Then again it might be sudden and some people will tell you they foresaw it all the time.

It is unlikely to be anyone significantly better or worse, given the pool available to draw on. It might not be one person. There can be something of a triumvirate or similar for a while before one member heads the pack. Putin and Medvedev used to do a sham double act. There might be a more genuine sharing of power.

His replacement would allow for a reset and for him to be blamed for various failings, perhaps with the excuse that his medicines contributed to unwise decisions.

Interesting post, especially about the installation of a replacement giving Russia the opportunity of a face-saving 'out' if they can construct a narrative of it all being down to Putin's ill health.

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Hillsmakeyoustrong · 22/09/2022 14:11

Finished the podcast. A number of points as I understand it but happy to be corrected.

So what can the West do? Provide weapons. This war won't be won at the negotiation table but in the battlefield. What the West doesn't provide in weapons, it will pay for in energy instead. If we had provided more weapons, the war would look very different and the West wouldn't be being blackmailed over energy. Khodorkovsky says Putin is a rat who needs to be cornered and run out of options so that eventually he will run back to his hole. He says his regime will soon end but that the regime change depends entirely on Russia, not the West.

For the future...Khodorkovsky says the decision making around energy needs to have more professional input in future and less political interference. Very poor political decisions were made some twenty years ago which is why we are paying the price now.
He also warns the West not to recreate the iron curtain. Russia will still be there behind the curtain after all...

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