Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

Using cadets as officers? Hitler did this with the hitler youth towards the end of the war as he became more desperate. He was giving direct military orders as well.

I saw that too, and this re Kherson.

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576606681865150464

It's shaping up to be a busy week on the southern front.

I see that Ben Wallace has been speaking at the party conference and has said that he thinks it’s “highly unlikely” Putin will use nuclear weapons. He also mentioned that he isn’t rational though.

Wow! prays it's true

Hoping the news shapes up to be true in Kherson.

@Ijsbear your link to the shifting maps of Russian-held territory in Ukraine since February shows that there is still much more work there is to be done by UAF to push back Russian's frontlines. I am confident they are up to the task. Victory to Ukraine.

It does look a bit depressing doesn't it? But it was pointed out that a lot of that land is actually very lightly held or not at all - simply a manpower issue. Not enough orcs to hold the whole line so Ukraine could advance fast in some areas

Comprehensive , from the Atlantic:

What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

"Vladimir Putin can determine if, when, and where a nuclear attack occurs in Ukraine. But he cannot control what happens after that"

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/

Wow. Had a busy weekend, didn't look at any news for 2 days, and all of a sudden Lyman liberated, and now they're pushing ahead in the south too. Just wow.

mobile.twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1576643785609531393 Oh my god, oh my god, oh my go d, in a good way

Other than a right wing coup, I cannot see how this ends if Putin won't back down

There is something on Twitter that says that command and control in Kherson that one Russian unit went on social media to beg for air support

Has broken down so badly, sorry got over excited

You probably all heard of it, but if anyone wants a good laugh, follow DarthPutin on Twitter. I'm howling 😂

I absolutely love him!

…I’m still a master strategist…… 😂😂😂

mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1576633051379302401 more unconfirmed reports

@Ijsbear You are right! Judging from increasing reports of Russian collapse in Kherson.

@minsmum "Approximately 25,000 Russian troops are trapped on the right bank of the Dnipro River with bridges across the river partially destroyed" That is a lot of orcs.

I had to look this up. Right bank means West of the Dnipro. Seems mad to send so many Russian troops across the river. I'd hate to think what they would do to civilians in that areas who are equally trapped.

Ready a thread on the telegraph about why it's unlikely nuclear weapons will be used. Think it was behind a paywall though. Basically saying that if it gets to a point where Putin wants to use a tactical nuke, it's likely he would have post all credibility to the officers he would need to agree with the strike. A tactical Nuke would need to be beneficial to Putin, if detonated on the ground the fallout would be a huge issue for Russias advancing troops. If detonated in the air it would be useful on a large populated area. But the Ukrainian army are very spread out so the nuke would purely be symbolic unless many small ones were used at the same time. However the risk of that garuntees the end for Putin. Also the use of nuclear weapons is the only card Putin still holds. Once he has used them they are no longer a deterrent and he is all in. He still needs to convince those around him that they will still be in power after the war (they won't be) but using nuclear weapons pretty much garuntees them that they won't.

Just a reminder that if anyone is feeling generous and inclined to offer practical help to the Ukrainian army, it is possible to send money direct to them.

I'm never sure about the MN rules for fundraising links, but if you type, 'Ukrainian army donate' into Google, it should take you to a helpful page of bank.gov.ua.

There was a joke reply to that supposed request that went something like:

"Send us your coordinates so we don't hit you"..

Must admit I'm slightly sceptical about some of the reports simply due to the rate of progress over the ground that is being claimed but it would be nice to think this is turning into a total rout.

Could be an interesting few hours coming up.

There's photographyic evidence that they've taken Torske.

Other reports suggest they've been attacking the report between Svatove and Kremmina.

That creates issues for Severodonetsk for the Russians and makes it unlikely they will hold Kremmina long.

Reports were that Kremmina was already in a situation like Lyman for the Russians today. And they aren't dug in, in Kremmina.

Those who fled there from Lyman aren't in any better position thats for sure.

It seems likely that this offensive will roll now until the supply routes to Severodonetsk are cut. At that point I think we will see the Ukrainians take a break.

I think Kremmina is likely to fall in the next 48 hrs or so.

This is a big frontal collapse. But the Ukrainians will need to rest in a couple of days too.

*Attacking the road to Kremmina

Must admit I'm slightly sceptical about some of the reports simply due to the rate of progress over the ground that is being claimed but it would be nice to think this is turning into a total rout.
That's slightly how I feel, @notimagain, and then I remember the lightning advance across Kharkiv oblast a few weeks ago. All the commentators were saying, 'Well, if they take X, they would be able to push on to Y... er, hang on, they've taken X and are on their way, er, they're already in Y, um, yes, geolocated footage of the flag being raised over the town hall...'

Watching footage of Ukrainian troops about to go into battle is sobering. Real mea, real lives. Everything crossed for them.

It seems clear that something is happening in Kherson. I would leave the champagne in the fridge for a day or two until more reliable information comes out. There is usually a lot of misinformation in the early, unconfirmed reports, and the Ukrainians aren't allowing journalists anywhere near Kherson.

In other good news, it seems that the newly mobilized Russian conscripts will be fighting in t-shirts and blue jeans. That will be jolly as the cold weather sets in.

twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1576615822210265091

The uniforms probably never existed. The kleptocracy strikes again. This confirms something on the Ukraine: The Latest podcast I posted about last week. A Latvian journalist reported that Russian troops claimed their winter uniforms were stolen.

Sounds like tactical battlefield decisions being taken by junior officers and NCOs. That is one significant difference between Russian and western army organisation. A practical issue is going to be how to process prisoners and where to send them.

Watching footage of Ukrainian troops about to go into battle is sobering. Real mea, real lives. Everything crossed for them.

God speed 🇺🇦