Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

[TheCountessofFitzdotterel]

@PerkingFaintly

NB I know this poster has tried to "both-sides" the homosexuality narrative (the UK as both pro and anti), but actually the line that "the West is trying to make your children gay" will go down very well in many African countries.

It was also part of Vlad's recent speech, and I imagine worked as he wanted. That part of his speech may have sounded barking to those of us in the UK, but we shouldn't ignore his success in weaponising any type of issue with "culture war" potential to incite division.

This specific one will have been a good distraction for his intended audience from the minor matter of him trying to re-build the Russian Empire and colonise a recently independent country. His imperialism being an issue which will not go down so well in Africa...

Ah I thought the anti colonialism message was also calculated to go down well in Africa. I think the idea is his audiences there won’t have enough detailed knowledge of the amorphous mass of cold dark countries that make up Eastern Europe (just like the typical Brit wouldn’t of African countries) to make the connection that he is doing blatant colonialism himself. (Educated people will of course but he is never about appealing to the highly educated.)

[miceonabranch]

What is Putin going to do when he's out of options though? It's obvious that he's going to lose this war and I fear he might launch a tactical one out of sheer desperation and anger.

[Igotjelly]

@miceonabranch

What is Putin going to do when he's out of options though? It's obvious that he's going to lose this war and I fear he might launch a tactical one out of sheer desperation and anger.

But this is where it comes down to the process by which a nuclear strike takes place, it’s not nearly as simple as an angry Putin pressing a big button. During the Cold War a nuclear strike was more than once prevented by one part of the chain not following command.

[TheCountessofFitzdotterel]

I found it interesting that he is picking sides in culture war issues depending on what is going to go down well in non Western countries.

I can’t remember if I read this on one of these threads or elsewhere but someone said the way to read Putin’s speeches is not to try to unpick what he really means and drive yourself mad trying to work out if he means he’s going to go nuclear or not, but to look at how it plays with the rest of the world.

[LoveLarry]

@LilyPAnderson

How are people so sure we know all the facts when any news with an alternative opinion is banned? RT news has been banned from our screens.
I lived through times when our media edited out voices of Irish republican politicians, to only hear one side, so our government could keep putting our lives in danger and making everybody hate us for reasons only a few rich people will gain from, while making no attempt at a peace plan. Most people have no memory of politics than the last Tory propaganda headline they read.
I always knew most people are dumbed down from how so many people care about what over hyped and talentless celebs are doing. I knew the international bankers who run the USA and Britain had been trying to start a war against Russia for decades, with the hypocritical media information, because Putin and Russia Today news are only ones who remind our own people of how the USA and Britain sell arms to backward nations like Saudi Arabia, where women and other religions don't have full human rights. While we fund extremists to overthrow leaders like Assad in Syria, one of the few middle east nations with many religions that live together in peace, with ancient Christian communities who still speak Aramaic, the language from the time of Jesus.

Our media kept saying how Russia was evil because some of their states said there shouldn't be promotion of homosexuality to children. When the law against promotion of homosexuality to anybody in Britain was more severe. Section 28 of the Local Government Act 1988 in Britain stated that a local authority "shall not intentionally promote homosexuality or publish material with the intention of promoting homosexuality" or "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship". Which was only repealed in 2003.
Also the Guardian newspaper has a lot of anti Putin, Russian journalists. You only have to see how easily led most people are from all the dumb British people who said they wanted to leave the EU as wanted less people here from Pakistan, as the media and politicians like Farage didn't bother to explain to them that the EU means Europe, and made them think it was about immigration from elsewhere, or about asylum.

It's only since the Ukraine crisis that it has hit me like a bolt at how dumbed down Britain is. People chanting Ukraine and flying Ukraine flags, while not questioning why any media with another point of view is banned, or why there's a promotion of punishing other Russian people who aren't connected to the government. I'm finding it really disturbing. That would be called racism in any other situation.

All most people remember about politics is the last tabloid propaganda headline they read. Who even knows we're more in danger from our own government's actions from making us a USA lapdog? Who remembers when the secret service whistle blower David Shayler told how Tories were using British money to fund Al Qaeda in Libya against Gaddafi? When British people were shot in Tunisia and blown up in Manchester by extremists who trained in Libya after Gaddafi was killed, what media reminded our people that our government helped cause that?
Who remembers Afghanistan wasn't run by extremists before the USA armed and trained the religious extremists in Afghanistan against Russia in the 80s? Then the USA didn't care what was going on in Afghanistan for years before 9/11, such as stories about ancient Buddhist statues being blown up and females banned from education.

I was going to say "well done you" for writing out such a mammoth post

But then you probably cut and paste it

What are your views on covid and vaccination? Oh, and crypto currency?

For the record there are some great twitter accounts that follow Russian media and provide subtitled excerpts

I've certainly seen enough to understand why this is Russia's war

[prettybird]

I also fear that Putin would use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine out of spite, and for no tactical benefit Certainly with no intention of following up with troops.

I hope that saner minds around him will stop him.

[PerkingFaintly]

Also, Afghanistan? The Afghanistan that Russia invaded?

And the religious extremism which had a considerable boost from that Russian invasion and then from the brutal Russian repressions in Chechnya? The Russian carpet-bombing of Grozny, "the most destroyed city on earth", which provided the blueprint for Russia's bombing of Syria and Ukraine?

Yes, I remember all that.

[ScrollingLeaves]

MagicFox · Today 07:40
Putin has destroyed the lives of the young in ukraine and in Russia

"The Russian rapper Ivan Petunin has committed suicide.

He recorded a message to his fans about mobilization.

He said he refuses to murder another man.

He said Putin has taken all Russian men captive, leaving them with 3 choices: becoming a murderer, going to prison or suicide."

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1576333259583025154?s=46&t=8ZeeNDbyOOLLUio64BN36Q

What a brave man. But his death is a tragedy and a loss.

In another country he could have used his rapping instead of his death to change minds.

[PerkingFaintly]

Ah I thought the anti colonialism message was also calculated to go down well in Africa.

Oh yes, absolutely.

It takes a brass neck to go out and proclaim himself a hero against colonialism for his... war creating colonialism. But he does have a brass neck, and as we've often mentioned previously, it's a very common Russian propaganda to aggressively accuse others of precisely the thing one is doing oneself.

I agree, the way to understand a Vlad speech is to look at how it plays to the rest of the world.

[Igotjelly]

Don’t forget India too. A key ally they risk losing, with a long history littered with the pain of colonisation.

[Qisk]

Don’t engage with@LilyPAnderson
They have been on a relationship thread overnight, promoting marriage breakdown on the basis - I kid you not - the Queen was sleeping around and all her kids are from different fathers. Don’t feed the crackhead troll.

[Ijsbear]

Oooufffrrrugggg

it was a celebration last night and I'm afraid I'd had too much wine and I totally misread a post. I'd also made the mistake of coming across an appallingly tragic clip of a Russian bombing and was pretty wound up.

Sorry.

[Igotjelly]

What do we think is the reasoning behind the kidnap of the Head of the Zaporizhzhia plant?

[Ijsbear]

ISW Key Takeaways


Ukrainian forces liberated Lyman and are likely clearing the settlement as of October 1.

Russia is likely setting conditions to assume legal responsibility for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Ukrainian troops are continuing to conduct counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast and setting conditions for future advances.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas of Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces continued routine strikes against Ukrainian rear areas in the south.

Russian military leadership is continuing to compromise the future reconstitution of the force by prioritizing the immediate mobilization of as many bodies as possible for ongoing fighting in Ukraine.

Russian mobilization authorities continue to carry out discriminatory mobilization practices.


+++


bit short roundup, m'eyes aren't quite opposite the sockets yet

⚡️Russia confirms defeat in Lyman, Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️UPDATE: 24 dead, including 13 kids, after Russia destroyed civilian convoy in Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️Russia's Kadyrov urges use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

⚡️IAEA chief expected to visit Kyiv, Moscow next week.





Ducklings are fine, twice the size they were when they were hatched. Very messy even now. I wonder what teenage ducklings are going to be like

[PerkingFaintly]

Also, it would be a mistake to see Vlad's recent speech as an attempt to mitigate the impact of his invasion of Ukraine. It's an attempt to positively exploit it.

He has parallel objectives. He would like Ukraine. And he would like to re-build Russian influence worldwide, particularly in Africa.

Invading Ukraine and then painting someone else as the aggressor is actively helpful for him in the latter. Obviously as soon as you think about it for more than 10 seconds, his narrative falls apart. But in current politics, which is all about emotion – creating emotions then using them to herd people – this is likely to be successful.

Sorry, I'm very inarticulate today, so am struggling to formulate this coherently. But what I'm trying to highlight is a technique commonly used in current politics, not just in Russia – although interestingly Putin did benefit from both the (heavily social-media-driven) examples below.

So, some recent examples where we can see parallel objectives, and use of one objective to benefit the other despite this being on the face of it an irrational outcome.

1. The storming of the US Capitol. Vlad would have preferred another Trump presidency to the Biden one, but in fact achieving the mobilisation of ordinary Americans for a significant assault on the very mechanics of liberal democracy is a massive win for a number of malicious actors, and locks some Americans onto a path of no return which may be more valuable to those actors in the long run.
   
   
2. The UK's Tory government 2010 onwards introduced hugely damaging cuts to public spending and to support for the least well off in the UK, and used this to get elected by a historic margin in 2019, taking seats they'd never had, before in constituencies worst affected by their cuts. All this via the magic that was Brexit. By creating discontent, then focussing that discontent externally and proposing a magical solution of leaving the EU, then portraying themselves the only party which would "Get Brexit Done", the Tories have been rewarded. It's not just win-win, it's a larger second win than they would normally have expected.
   
   So this is what we're seeing Putin attempt with Ukraine and Africa. I don't actually know how to stop it succeeding. I can say with confidence that relying on mere facts to counter his emotion-herding activities will be entirely ineffective.

[miceonabranch]

Can't Putin force the military to launch though? What would happen to them if they refused?

[TheABC]

I admit I laughed out loud at "make your kids gay" bit from the troll further up the thread. If a thousand years of sexual repression and outright violence against the gay community could not erase them, I doubt we can manage the reverse with heterosexuals.

I do have a question for the more qualified posters on this thread. When you look at overall map of Ukraine, the UKF appear to be nibbling away at the edges of a vast swathe of territory held by the Russians. Is that truly the case or is more "everything to the right of the line is Russian by default"? If the front line collapsed, would we see the map change colour overnight?

It's seems such monumental task, just to get back to the February status quo for Ukraine.

[Igotjelly]

@TheABC

I admit I laughed out loud at "make your kids gay" bit from the troll further up the thread. If a thousand years of sexual repression and outright violence against the gay community could not erase them, I doubt we can manage the reverse with heterosexuals.

I do have a question for the more qualified posters on this thread. When you look at overall map of Ukraine, the UKF appear to be nibbling away at the edges of a vast swathe of territory held by the Russians. Is that truly the case or is more "everything to the right of the line is Russian by default"? If the front line collapsed, would we see the map change colour overnight?

It's seems such monumental task, just to get back to the February status quo for Ukraine.

I often think the best way to look at it is as a series of towns and villages, each with a sphere of influence. So whilst it might look like nibbling each settlement that falls unlocks it’s own sphere. It’s also all about breaking logistical lines etc. In general holding 1 small (geographically) town can be far more important than holding swathes of open fields.

[Igotjelly]

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31899680.amp

Interesting article from 2015, but of deja vu? Even in terms of rumours about Putin’s health.

[Liebig]

He’s not going to use nukes. The threat is nonzero, but also negligible. It won’t win the war for him and will certainly lose it faster.

We have to contend with the fact that Putin is a 21st century Hitler, kept in the dark about how things are really going, while he presses on with a futile action, ever hopeful Steiner will save the day with some T-14 Armata battalion miracle.

If the corruption and cronyism has gotten to such an extent that the guy who is micromanaging the war isn’t fully briefed on matters, then why would he consider a different strategy? Or even a retreat?

[MissConductUS]

@Igotjelly

I often think the best way to look at it is as a series of towns and villages, each with a sphere of influence. So whilst it might look like nibbling each settlement that falls unlocks it’s own sphere. It’s also all about breaking logistical lines etc. In general holding 1 small (geographically) town can be far more important than holding swathes of open fields.

That's generally correct, except that the Russians don't try to defend every town and village. They focus on the ones that control ground lines of communication (roads and rails). They may also set up defensive positions at locations that provide an advantage, like the high ground or the opposite side of a river. In the area around Kharkiv, there wasn't a lot of defense in depth, which helped the Ukrainian forces maneuver around the Russians.

We've had Russian shills on Ukraine related threads before. I think the ones that fail on Twitter and Facebook get demoted to Reddit and MN.

[Mb76]

Does anyone here have subscription to the Times? I’d quite like to read this article but it’s behind the paywall for me.

[TheCountessofFitzdotterel]

‘That's generally correct, except that the Russians don't try to defend every town and village. They focus on the ones that control ground lines of communication (roads and rails).‘

That would explain why my guest’s parents who live in a village near Chernihiv saw literally no soldiers other than some military planes flying overhead.

[MissConductUS]

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

‘That's generally correct, except that the Russians don't try to defend every town and village. They focus on the ones that control ground lines of communication (roads and rails).‘

That would explain why my guest’s parents who live in a village near Chernihiv saw literally no soldiers other than some military planes flying overhead.

The Russians are also operating with badly undermanned units due to attritional losses. They really have to pick and choose what they are going to defend.

That's one reason why Lyman was such a huge loss for them. They correctly saw it as strategically important and assigned many troops to its defense, most of whom were killed or captured.

[Sd352]

Here you go:

Why Putin doesn’t understand the country he invaded
October 2 2022, The Sunday Times

I am a Ukrainian citizen. When I visited Moscow in 2015 I was treated with pity, as a victim of an American plot to undermine “mighty Russia” by taking control of Ukraine. But what struck me most was a remark that the “Russian and Ukrainian states are like two bottles of water: very much alike, with the difference of one being with gas, the other without”. It wasn’t just Vladimir Putin with his ultra-nationalist rhetoric of one people chained together by a common history: the majority of Russians genuinely believed that Ukraine was just an extension of their country.

But was it — is it — only Russians who were guilty of misunderstanding Ukraine, the largest nation in Europe?
Before the war people in the West also looked at Ukraine through the prism of Russia. Western companies working in the region — until Russia’s invasion in February — were nearly always headquartered in Moscow; few of their employees travelled to Ukraine. At best, Ukraine was viewed as being, well, like Russia; but maybe worse. It was seen as unstable, prone to uprisings and at the mercy of its oligarchs — more corrupt, more divided, more trouble than the behemoth next door.

And because it was viewed as a weak state it was assumed that Ukraine was doomed to collapse in the face of a Russian invasion.

Different political DNA

What many in the West missed was an undercurrent of transformative change occurring inside Ukrainian society and a sharp divergence of Russian and Ukrainian politics. They assumed that cultural links, linguistic similarity, shared geography and myriad direct family connections meant political proximity. The opposite is true. Different attitudes towards power and history have shaped the national stories of both countries. The Russian version is an expansionist imperial project with hierarchical structure, subjugation of its subjects and veneration of a strongman. Ukraine, however, was a nation that emerged through confrontation with external powers (Russia, Turkey, Poland) and survived thanks to co-operation between its citizens and a freedom-loving mindset. One of the symbols of Ukrainian identity is the Cossack, a Turkic word meaning “free man”. These “free men” originally established themselves on the grasslands of southern Ukraine and along the banks of the lower Dnipro river. They later formed a proto-state that existed for more than 100 years until its obliteration by the Russian tsarina, Catherine the Great. It is some of these lands that Putin annexed last week. It is hard to imagine how that occupation could last very long.

Russia: Power over the people

In Russia, it is becoming the worst of times. The country has been captured by an ex-KGB operative, now in power for more than 20 years. President Putin’s top-down system is marked by the rule of fear, cronyism, one-party dominance and sporadic assassinations. Many of the key participants in civil society have been branded as foreign agents and effectively silenced. Opposition figures have been jailed or driven out of the country. Putin’s “contract” with Russian society was simple: stability and relative prosperity in exchange for freedom. Most were seduced. Only 16 per cent of Russians believe democracy is the best system of governance. Only 24 per cent support a market economy.

Whatever was left of federal governance was destroyed by the de facto obliteration of the election of regional governors, especially in the North Caucasus. The country’s economic engine, for now at least, runs on fossil fuels and Moscow redistributes those revenues in exchange for loyalty.

This rigid social structure and the fear of authority extends to the Russian army. It impedes the mobility and agility of units on the battlefield and obstructs the flow of accurate information. In many locations units are cut off from communication and demoralised. They flee as Ukraine advances. Having suffered 50,000 dead and wounded, Putin persists with his war giving orders personally to commanders in Ukraine.

In stark contrast to Ukraine, Russians are demobilising by fleeing the country, hiding from the authorities and googling how to break an arm to avoid mobilisation. But they are not protesting in millions against war crimes, the killing of Ukrainians or Putin’s dictatorship.

Ukraine: Power of the people

What makes Ukrainians resilient is their hope for a better future. This stems from a strong sense of agency. Millions of Ukrainians know they can make a difference. When Russia attacked in February, civil society and local business sectors mobilised behind the war effort and made a difference. In the fog of war, when Kyiv was under attack, many did not wait for orders from the top. They joined up with others locally to create food stocks, source generators, prepare housing for people displaced by the war, and to buy protective equipment and communication devices for territorial defence units. Today more than 70 per cent of the population are engaged in this kind of war effort.
None of this was inevitable.

The road to escaping Ukraine’s Soviet legacy after independence in 1991 has been bumpy, to say the least. Newly formed oligarchic groups strongly opposed reform, Russia penetrated the Ukrainian security service and the country’s political elite. Moscow made Kyiv dependent on its energy. Corruption was endemic.

It took three revolutions — in 1990, 2004 and 2013 — to uproot the barriers to Ukraine’s path to prosperity. But it was all moving in the right direction. Ukraine was a democracy, albeit one with serious governance problems.

Change accelerated in the eight years between Russia’s first invasion in 2014 until its second in February this year. Decentralisation led to the empowerment of local councils and an increased capacity for management in regions beyond Kyiv. Regional budgets increased four-fold compared with 2014 and communities could finally invest in their livelihoods. Trust in mayors and their legitimacy was growing. Across the country mayors have been at the forefront of organising defences against Russia’s invasion. Today, even as Russian missiles continue to destroy cities, there are civic forums discussing how to rebuild Ukraine in a green, transparent and inclusive way.

The armed forces have been reformed, with increased civil society engagement, training from western allies and a more nimble command structure.

New digital tools sustain the country during this most destructive of times. Before the war, Ukraine’s vibrant IT community contributed 5.6 per cent of GDP. This generation is now leading both a digital revolution and resistance.

The relatively new state Diia portal allows instant access to various personal documents on the go. Improved digital governance has boosted trust and allowed for uninterrupted service delivery even when millions were uprooted from their homes. The globally networked, internet-enabled parts of the economy have adapted and continued to function. In energy and trade Ukraine has successfully decoupled from its dependence on Russia.

Innovation is shaping the battlefield outcome too. The Ukrainian army is crowdsourcing its intelligence. More than 300,000 Ukrainians reported Russian collaborators and war crimes using a new chat bot. When Russia announced its partial mobilisation of civilians last month, Ukraine introduced an “army of drones” with the Star Wars actor, Mark Hamill, as its ambassador.

No longer so misunderstood

In the end those bubbles in the water bottle were real differences.

This war has exposed the stark differences between two countries which Putin claims are one nation. Brute force has not been able to subjugate an agile, creative and gritty opponent. Ukraine is offering a 21st-century asymmetric response to a Russian military playbook that has barely evolved since the Second World War. More than 90 per cent of Ukrainians believe they can repel Russian aggression. They have not won yet, but the rest of the West – and indeed those nations that have not yet committed to support Kyiv – should understand that this sense of hope has formidable foundations. It is grounded in the daily experience and display of Ukraine’s inner strength: a fierce civic cohesion that Russia simply cannot match.

Orysia Lutsevych is head of the Ukraine Forum, Chatham House