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Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

995 replies

MagicFox · 22/09/2022 06:51

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
53
Igotjelly · 01/10/2022 17:30

Oh of course 😭😂 it’s been a long couple of days.

notimagain · 01/10/2022 17:51

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 01/10/2022 16:57

Explosion at Belbek military airfield in occupied Crimea. Russia says it’s just a military plane making a bad landing but there are pretty good fireworks for that. People on Twitter speculating about HIMARS attack but I have no idea how likely that is.

I am afraid I find footage of Russian tourists on Crimea being frightened deeply satisfying.

Just seen some footage..

V poor quality, can't tell the aircraft type, but it looks like for whatever reason it was overran the runway end at high speed, went down an escarpment and then exploded.

shreddednips · 01/10/2022 17:59

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 01/10/2022 13:28

Tuba437
There is little evidence that the next president will be any better than Putin is!

I think the point might be that it is not possible for Putin to back down, but the next president, even if worse than Putin, would able to repudiate Putin and Putin's actions, and back away from the mess Putin made.

It had occurred to me that the fact Putin has been personally directing operations would give whoever comes next an out. I am under no illusions that they will be any better than Putin. However, if they felt there was nothing to be gained from continuing what he started, they could (domestically at least) blame the whole fiasco on his poor leadership.

Greenshake · 01/10/2022 18:05

Precisely. There is a golden opportunity for someone sat right there.

MMBaranova · 01/10/2022 18:18

I will be home soon mother.

I read the same source as blueshoes.

What a debacle.

Some told to hold and not surrender, but fleeing, surrendering or just being shot. The linked source said like squirrels.

MissConductUS · 01/10/2022 18:28

I thought this was a good summary of what we know about the last 48 in Lyman.

Ukraine update: As Ukrainian forces enter Lyman, hundreds of Russians may still be trapped inside

Here's an excerpt. The whole thing is worth reading.

It now seems possible to put together something of a picture of what happened in the last 48 hours from a mixture of sources. As the perimeter around Lyman tightened, Russian forces that had been in Yampil and Drobysheve first went into Lyman, then began withdrawing along the road to the east. There was an effort to remove heavy equipment, including the artillery that had backed the Russian position in Lyman over the last two weeks. Within hours, many of the Russian infantry began to follow, but all of this made for slow progress down relatively small roads.

Throughout Thursday and Friday, those Russian forces issued many requests for reinforcement or rescue, and were sent assurances it was on the way. There are even messages from the Bakhmut area complaining that Wagner forces left the front lines there to go to Lyman. However, if any of those forces ever made it to Lyman, it doesn’t get mentioned. Most likely, any relief force that was sent never got closer than the intersection between Torske and Zarichne, where they may have helped to temporarily hold Ukrainian forces back from the road.

As the escaping forces ran a gauntlet of Ukrainian artillery, anti-tank weapons, and heavy machine gun fire, they took significant losses. Damaged armor clogged the route. They were also slowed because the road leading into Lyman had been mined or damaged at several locations.

At some point, Russian troops (some reports suggest members of BARS-13) blew up the bridge across the Zherebets River north of Torske to prevent Ukrainian pursuit. This may have helped some escape to the east, but it also trapped the forces following them, leading to an intense fight near Zarichne as those forces attempted to find a way out.

Igotjelly · 01/10/2022 18:32

It’s horrible enough already but once this is over, and I do believe it will be over one day, there are going to be some many horrors uncovered.

MissConductUS · 01/10/2022 18:42

Lyman was a terrible defeat for the Russians and a huge embarrassment for Putin. I think that when the dust settles, we'll find that relatively few Russians survived the battle and escaped.

The next question is whether the UAF have enough reserves to keep moving or if this is a temporary culmination for them.

minsmum · 01/10/2022 18:51

mobile.twitter.com/raging545/status/1576163543816077313 they don't appear to be stopping

MMBaranova · 01/10/2022 18:57

The Failure

I've been damping down those around me who are spooked by Vladimir Putin and hang on his words, what he might say, and how long it is before the next BIG announcement. I'm doing my best to at least partially dePutinise and call him who he is: The Failure.

The original plan was a decapitation one to install a new government in Kyiv. It was supposed to be all over in 48 hours.

It failed.

Since then there has been failure after failure. Death, destruction and maiming while The Failure has failed. It's what he does. It might be part of his deluded essence. His warped version of a Russian Soul.

Yes, he has gained ground and lost ground.

But he is mired in failure.

Now he is rounding up the old, the untrained, the ill-equipped and the unwilling to head into Ukraine to be killed or maimed so that his failure can be amplified.

Meanwhile his surrounded forces have been told to withdraw, no - to stand and fight, and to not surrender.

It's pitiful.

It is his failure.

Ijsbear · 01/10/2022 19:45

From what I read years ago Biological has gigantic problems, not least that it can infect your own people.

Chemical warfare is happening in a small scale but Warnings Have Been Given if things happen on the scale of Syrian chemical warfare (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Use_of_chemical_weapons_in_the_Syrian_civil_war)

Regarding nuclear device use, if the West does ~not~ take firm action possibly non-nuclear, possibly nuclear retaliatory to the same degree, it will be a green light for bad-faith actors to go right ahead and do it again

MagicFox · 01/10/2022 20:06

Newsweek article: China to Stand by Russia—Xi 'Cannot Alienate Putin'

www.newsweek.com/china-russia-president-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-1747276

OP posts:
TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 01/10/2022 20:15

Well said MMBaranova.

Greenshake · 01/10/2022 20:38

That article is rather contradictory isn’t it?

MagicFox · 01/10/2022 20:52

Thread picking up on something I was getting at earlier: Kadyrov setting himself up for Russian leadership? https://twitter.com/fpriorbis/status/1576292354864005123?s=46&t==_58PmAtUHeCU3Z4YMv5Buw

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 01/10/2022 20:54

MagicFox · 01/10/2022 20:52

Thread picking up on something I was getting at earlier: Kadyrov setting himself up for Russian leadership? https://twitter.com/fpriorbis/status/1576292354864005123?s=46&t==_58PmAtUHeCU3Z4YMv5Buw

Surely not 😭😂

MagicFox · 01/10/2022 20:59

I know 😬

OP posts:
TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 01/10/2022 21:51

Ukrainian Ministry of Defence tweet. All the other Ministry of Defences must have a massive crush on them right now.

‘We thank the “Ministry of Defense” of 🇷🇺 for successful cooperation in organizing the "Izyum 2.0" exercise. Almost all russian troops deployed to Lyman were successfully redeployed either into body bags or into 🇺🇦 captivity. We have one question for you: Would you like a repeat?‘

blueshoes · 01/10/2022 21:59

ScrollingLeaves · 01/10/2022 14:51

blueshoes· Today 12:58
Re: the quote you posted from those transcripts, I noticed it too when reading through those.

GRAPHIC "One guy [Russian solider] had obviously stepped on a mine by the side of the road. One leg was gone at mid-thigh, the other one was broken lower down and his foot was backward. He was trying to crawl somewhere on one good knee, trailing flowing blood out of a busted artery. Unless he got help quick, he was gone. He was talking calmly in Russian, saying over-and-over, “I will be home soon mother.”

What that dying Russian said is just so upsetting, even though he’s the enemy. This so shows the sheer evil of this war. I hope he died feeling he would really see her soon. I hope his mind/soul did see her again.

@ScrollingLeaves you encapsulated what I wanted to say.

The utter horror of people given no choice or forced to make impossible choices only to end predictably. He knew he was not going home to his mother in body long ago. I won't dwell too much because he could have been a torturer. The Azov defenders in Mariupol had worse. All totally senseless.

Another mother's heart breaks.

ScrollingLeaves · 01/10/2022 22:14

MissConductUS- Today 18:28
I thought this was a good summary of what we know about the last 48 in Lyman.

www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/1/2126345/-Ukraine-update-As-Ukrainian-forces-enter-Lyman-hundreds-of-Russians-may-still-be-trapped-inside

Ukraine update: As Ukrainian forces enter Lyman, hundreds of Russians may still be trapped inside

However, some of those Russian forces clearly did fight their way through, because they lived to repeat the “Ukrainian drug zombies” story after retreating all the way back to Valuyki, across the Russian border. (Russians claiming that Ukrainians had been drugged into unstoppable killing machines without fear is a story that has been told since near the start of the invasion).

Earlier the report says the Russians think of them as drugged zombies. The Russians were mowing them down with machine-guns but they kept coming. They may be drugged, but I am sure the real reason the Ukrainians appear to be this way to the Russians is that for the Ukrainians it is all or nothing. They have no choice. Whereas the Russians have no real reason to be there in the first place.

notimagain · 01/10/2022 22:36

However, some of those Russian forces clearly did fight their way through, because they lived to repeat the “Ukrainian drug zombies” story after retreating all the way back to Valuyki, across the Russian border.

That's a tale that's going to grow in the telling.....there's no way many of the Russians are going to run for the hills and then fess up to onlookers/reporters that they they had their backsides handed to them on a plate by better equipped, better led and massively better motivated troops.

Hence these stories, which will become folklore, about being beaten by something or somebody with super human powers....

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 01/10/2022 22:44

notimagain · 01/10/2022 22:36

However, some of those Russian forces clearly did fight their way through, because they lived to repeat the “Ukrainian drug zombies” story after retreating all the way back to Valuyki, across the Russian border.

That's a tale that's going to grow in the telling.....there's no way many of the Russians are going to run for the hills and then fess up to onlookers/reporters that they they had their backsides handed to them on a plate by better equipped, better led and massively better motivated troops.

Hence these stories, which will become folklore, about being beaten by something or somebody with super human powers....

That’s a very interesting and plausible take.
I had been wondering wtf was going on with the drug zombies description, other than the obvious difference in motivation and determination.

Wannago · 01/10/2022 23:03

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 01/10/2022 22:44

That’s a very interesting and plausible take.
I had been wondering wtf was going on with the drug zombies description, other than the obvious difference in motivation and determination.

But it is also quite dangerous talk. Because "drug zombies" are not people, and so nobody need be concerned about them getting killed. If the entire Ukranian population are a bunch of drug zombies, then one can feel relaxed about using weapons one wouldn't use on people.

MissConductUS · 01/10/2022 23:27

That's a tale that's going to grow in the telling.....there's no way many of the Russians are going to run for the hills and then fess up to onlookers/reporters that they they had their backsides handed to them on a plate by better equipped, better led and massively better motivated troops.

This, plus the fact that during training, the Russians do weapons familiarization, not qualification. In a NATO army, you have to prove a certain level of marksmanship. In the Russian army, you have to be able to name the parts of the weapon and test fire it a few times.

Ijsbear · 01/10/2022 23:46

Actually, if I thought I was going to be facing unkillable zombies, drugged or otherwise .... I'd be way more scared

this is a good rumour