Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

Such a bloody waste. I really sob for the injustice and the misery Putin has unleashed on the Ukrainian people.

This.

The Ukrainian women in Ireland are frightened of Russian soldiers gaining protection in Ireland when they're in a very vulnerable position here without their husbands.

Yes, I think they are.

I remember from an early thread that Putin was allegedly expecting the loss of tens of thousands of Russian troops at the start of his "special operation".

Now he's conscripting hundreds of thousands.

He lost the Moskva and apparently relatives still don't know the fate of loved ones.

He can't keep a lid on the cannon fodder forever, even if he tries to contain the bulk of conscription outside the cities and "middle classes".

He's pulling working men out of the economy and leaving families potentially destitute.

As the phrase goes "winter is coming" and I feel he's expecting Europe to break with fuel costs. It will be hard but the lesson is we can't trust Russian supplies so there's no reconciliation here.

In the meantime his new conscripts will freeze on Ukrainian soil through lack of training and equipment, whilst their Ukrainian counterparts will endure through knowledge of terrain, western arms and most of all a strong sense of purpose.

Thanks for that thread by Mart Kuldkepp on the twin tracks of Russia's kinetic war against Ukraine, and its long-standing information war against the West, MagicFox. Bang on, I thought.

Here's the link again:
twitter.com/kuldkeppmart/status/1574840244905676819?s=46&t=c34vdhpuGe3JYRIWS5CJAQ

So everyone agrees that Putin is in trouble yet he appears totally relaxed and confident, especialy at the Uzbekistan press conference recently.
Is he an amazing actor, or has a 'stong' plan that nobody can envisage yet?

*strong

That's his KGB training. He knows he's in serious trouble.

ISW (and Kyiv Post) suggesting that Russia are likely to try and reframe the special military operation into a "counter-terrorism" operation. Any thoughts on the implications?

I can't help feeling that Putin is very dangerous right now

This may have been discussed, but is there any evidence of Russian money behind the far right wins in Sweden and Italy?

If he can’t win militarily, it’d be a clever strategy to erode EU support for Ukraine by facilitating far right wins within. Terrifying to see the support grow.

They were international, AFAIK pretty close to the boundary of Denmark's territorial waters. To me, that feels like it was meant to make a point without leading to any problems with NATO.

@DrBlackbird I've read in various places that Giorgia Meloni has ties with Russia/ Russian funding but no sources to hand

Good summary of Admiral James Stavridis's talk at a college in the US: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1574880240408600596.html

And Londongrad?

He must be pissing himself laughing that LT & KK have ranked the economy so spectacularly - reduces financial resources and takes everyone’s attention away from Ukraine to manage a domestic crisis.

Interview with Evgeny Popov on HardTalk today, about to listen: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/hardtalk/id494517111?i=1000580848863

Popov is one of the talking heads on RT and a member of the state duma

Maybe it was actually meant to be an attack on other pipes but good old Russian incompetence meant they blew up the wrong one?

I would not be surprised

Thanks @MagicFox and true @DFOD in that Russia’s support for Brexit/Johnson/Londongrad is paying off spectacularly in ways probably that even Putin didn’t envision.

I’m not usually one for conspiracy theories but let’s not forget that the architect for Leave and key for Johnson’s win (leading to the expulsion of sane Tory MPs) was one Dominic Cummings who spent three years living in Russia. Him as a deep mole would make a brilliant John le Carre plot line…

Highly recommend listening to the 'Ukraine the Latest' Podcast from yesterday. Really interesting, and non-alarmist analysis of the nuclear issue.

Are we to expect a flood of Russian asylum seekers now into Europe

Supporting this view, Putin has notably engineered crises before his elections in the past. He coasts to victory on his outstanding handling of these absolutely-unforeseen-crises.

It goes without saying that I feel sorry for Ukraine and Ukrainians but I also feel sorry for the many anti war and anti Putin Russians.

I follow a couple of Russian YouTubers that have recently moved to Georgia and they and many of the men now fleeing may not be able to return for a long time. Now neighbour ing countries, many that used to be part of the USSR have to deal with a huge influx of people.

I’m not usually one for conspiracy theories but let’s not forget that the architect for Leave and key for Johnson’s win (leading to the expulsion of sane Tory MPs) was one Dominic Cummings who spent three years living in Russia. Him as a deep mole would make a brilliant John le Carre plot line…

And Farage, co-leader of the Brexit campaign, is almost openly pro-Russia now.

About Putin seeing his people simply as bodies to be used, all the evidence is that that is the case. His reported early upbringing and his KGB training, and perhaps inclination, all indicate that people are chesspeople to be used.

There is no awareness or value for humanity for its own sake.

It's all about .. ego really. Being the best, when you look at the propaganda. There's a strange dependence on needing others in order to show off you're the 'best', allied 100% with a complete lack of value for them for their own sake. His own people, and the West and even China and Africa, seem to be mirrors for his own view of Russia. That also ties in with his desperate, obstinate efforts to think of the West as actively trying to destroy him, imo. Seeing the West as an enemy serves multiple purposes, including @OwlsDance 's comment on having an external enemy redirects inner discontent outwards. But there's more aspects to it than one, I think.

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory on September 30 after Russian officials completed their falsified “referenda” on September 27.

Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District (WMD) men to the Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training.

Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil river and made further gains on the outskirts of Lyman.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) as part of the southern counter-offensive interdiction campaign, particularly disrupting Russian efforts to build barge crossings.

Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City, increasingly leveraging penal units.

Russian forces inflicted severe damage on a Ukrainian airfield in Kryvyi Rih and continued routine air and missile strikes across southern Ukraine.

Russian authorities are establishing checkpoints at Russia’s borders to forcibly mobilize Russian men who are seeking to avoid forced mobilization by fleeing the country.

Russian officials are setting conditions to forcibly mobilize or conscript Ukrainian civilians in soon-to-be annexed areas of occupied Ukraine.

The Russian annexation of occupied Donetsk and Luhansk will likely exacerbate tensions within DNR and LNR forces, who regularly mutiny when asked to fight outside the borders of their own oblasts.

Russian officials may attempt to reframe their invasion of Ukraine and occupation of soon-to-be-annexed Ukrainian territory as a “counterterrorism operation.”

+++

⚡️National Guard: 6 servicemen recently released from Russian captivity have severe injuries. They "have complications" following blast injuries, post-concussion syndrome, and limb fractures. Other National Guard soldiers released from Russian captivity have health issues caused by "malnutrition," according to Trehub.

⚡️General Staff: Russian troops use drones over 50 times within 24 hours.

Blinken: Ukraine can use US-provided weapons 'to regain occupied territories.'
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/blinken-ukraine-can-use-us-provided-weapons-to-regain-occupied-territories)

⚡️Lithuania to provide nearly 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers with winter uniforms.

⚡️Reuters: US prepares $1.1 billion arms package for Ukraine.
...will likely include HIMARS launcher systems and accompanying munitions, different counter-drone and radar systems, along with spares, training and technical support, a source briefed on the plan told Reuters.

⚡️Politico: US, allies step up intelligence following Russia's nuclear threats.
The move included tasking additional U.S. and allied intelligence assets — in the air, space and cyberspace — and relying more heavily on commercial satellites to analyze Russian units in the field that might be in position to receive a nuclear strike order, one of the officials said.

⚡️ Governor: First mobilized Russian troops arrive at the front line in Ukraine.
Only one week after Russia announced "partial" mobilization, the Russian conscripts have already arrived (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/luhansk-governor-first-mobilized-russian-troops-arrive-at-the-front-line-in-ukraine), sent to replenish the ranks of the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of Russia's 1st Tank Army, according to Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai.

🚊 Belarus prepares to receive military trains from Russia – Belarusian Gayun

📌Gazprom threatened Naftogaz Ukrainy (Ukrainian Oil and Gas Company) with sanctions

⚡️Meta blocked a network of Russian bots and a separate network of accounts managed from China. The Russian network promoted pro-Kremlin narratives about the war unleashed by the Russian Federation in Ukraine. It includes thousands of accounts in various social networks. [sadly they seem to have been very successful in Africa]

❕The Bulgarian Foreign Ministry asks its citizens to urgently leave the territory of the Russian Federation, using all possible modes of transport due to the increasingly difficult situation. Following Bulgaria, the Polish Foreign Ministry recommended that its citizens leave Russian territory immediately.

❗️About 800 Azov defenders remained in captivity of the Russian Federation, – Olha Kravchenko, head of the department for work with prisoners of Azov
“Among them are more than 40 women, some of whom are pregnant. We saw in almost 90% of released prisoners the extreme stage of anorexia, moral and psychological exhaustion."

👥 NATO Secretary General convenes an emergency meeting of the Alliance's Board of Directors

📍 98,000 Russians have entered Kazakhstan since September 21, i.e., since the announcement of partial mobilization — pro-Kremlin media, citing the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kazakhstan

❗️The IAEA recorded new attacks on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Monday and Tuesday

⚡️Ukraine will receive an air defense system, which even the Bundeswehr does not have, – the German Ambassador to Ukraine
The IRIS-T air defense systems are produced specifically for Ukraine and are not in service with the German army.

📌Israel recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, so it does not recognize the results of the "referendums" in the territories in the east of Ukraine, – Ambassador of Israel to Ukraine Michael Brodsky. [but fuck-all help offered]

🗣The National Security and Defense Council will soon publish instructions for Ukrainians on what to do if Russia uses nuclear weapons, said NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov

❗️US intelligence agencies warned the German federal government in the summer about the risk of possible attacks on Nord Stream, Der Spiegel reports, citing sources
In particular, attention will be paid to the suspicious activity of Russian ships in the Baltic Sea, which will be analyzed using satellite imagery.

🪆At the past so-called "referendums" in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, not only the voting procedure itself was unique, but also the procedure for counting votes.
Members of the "election committees" calmly "counted" empty, unfilled ballots [foto was provided]

⚡️In connection with the partial mobilization announced in Russia, Latvia has declared a state of emergency in the regions bordering with the Russian Federation – Delfy agency

BBC News:

"Italy's Meloni pledges 'loyal support' for Ukraine
Italy's new right-wing leader Giorgia Meloni has pledged her support for Ukraine in a message to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
"You know that you can count on our loyal support for the cause of freedom of Ukrainian people. Stay strong and keep your faith steadfast!" Meloni tweeted in English late on Tuesday.
She was responding to a message sent by Zelensky congratulating her on her Brothers of Italy party's historic victory in general elections on Sunday.
"We appreciated Italy's constant support for Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression. We are counting on a productive partnership with the new Italian government," he had tweeted in Italian."

Interesting or just a front?

It’s timely, enthusiastic and public - good enough for now