Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

But I mean a threat to eg the Baltic pipeline

Thank you for that information about Sweden and the gas pipes MagicFox.

Just to be clear, is it correct that the gas pipes were defunct as stated earlier?

Slight deviation but this is a good thread on Russia's hybrid warfare and the fact it's been going on far longer than this: twitter.com/kuldkeppmart/status/1574840244905676819?s=46&t=c34vdhpuGe3JYRIWS5CJAQ

My understanding is they were turned off but still full of gas? Or is this the one that's due to be cut off?

wasnt there damage to both Nord 1 (shut) and 2 (never opened and no defunct)?

Yes definitely to both

Both full of gas but one very reduced flow the other one never turned on. So…probably the Americans…

This was my thought why blow it up when you just can turn it off. Completely ruining your leverage over gas supplies. Turning it on and off gives you the chance to negotiate gas supplies blowing it up does not. Something not sitting right with me on this one

I hope you're joking. Neither was delivering gas in any meaningful amount, and we have nothing to gain by damaging them. We also warned the Germans that we had intelligence that they would be attacked.

www.reuters.com/world/cia-warned-berlin-about-possible-attacks-gas-pipelines-summer-spiegel-2022-09-27/

Oh I'm sorry, I should have written much more clearly.

The article I linked to ( www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/sep/27/meta-takes-down-influence-operations-run-by-china-and-russia ) is a real Guardian article about Meta removing influence operations.

Within it is mentioned a fake article which appeared on a webpage faked to look like the Guardian. The fake article was to claim the Bucha massacre was staged, and it falsely used the name of a real Guardian correspondent, Jonathan Freedland. (So fairly standard stuff by Russia, really.)

I assumed this was the point, especially as the Norway-Polish pipeline opened today. If it was Russia, the intention could be to stoke insecurity that the new pipeline could be attacked.

I think Russia is not thinking in terms of the future and of re-using it. This is short term hurt-the-west thinking. Unfortunately there may be more coming.

Somehow to me it has the scent of a message.

I agree. The timing of it makes it seem like a threat towards the new pipeline, I can't imagine who else would have anything to gain by doing it. It's absolutely bizarre!

Got the feeling that there will be no pipelines working for a very long time unless a much more moderate government gets into power in Moscow, which doesn't seem likely atm.

Russia is cutting off its own nose to spite us and it might not be the last time.

Were the explosions on NordStream 1 pipes in Swedish or Danish waters as opposed to international waters? If it is the former and the explosions can be linked back to Russia, would this not amount to an attack on NATO 'soil'?

Just international.

That ties with this:

Dr Peter Caddick-Adams AT militaryhistori
Conscription tales from my Russian contacts: call-up rumoured to far exceed 300k. Buy your own sleeping bags, first aid kits, tourniquet, none issued. No beds in barracks, sleeping on bubble wrap on concrete floors. Rumours of less than 2 weeks training, then Ukraine.

Laney AT Laneygigs
I mean if they haven't got sleeping bags, there is no WAY they have a supply chain to suddenly feed 300k+ adults for 2 weeks, then at the front. Not a chance.

If the Ukranians don't get them, a Ukrainian winter will. If they can afford a sleeping bag and first aid kit, then they have to steal food from the locals who already don't have food.

The net result of this, is they will just have to find more and more men to replace those sent to Ukraine. In the hope that western resolve will somehow crack before Russian willingness to support the war. Not sure how thats going to play out well for Russia.

For all the talk of worrying about nukes, how does this fit into Russian thinking, other than those commanding have absoluetely nfi what they are doing?

That's because you're not a dictator and you don't have imperialistic views.

Dictatorships don't tend to look after their people very well. This creates tensions within, and to relieve these tensions, dictators start wars to show their people that they need a strong hand to lead them in these difficult times. It doesn't matter that they themselves created these "threats". If the war is won, dictators rule a bit longer, until next time. If it's lost, it usually results in some sort of collapse/revolution/regime change.

Reports about the offensive near Lyman are getting interesting.

Looks like Ukraine has fire power over the only road left in. And there are approx 2000 Russians effectively all but encircled now.

Reports also suggest that the Russians committed the majority of their power to holding the line around Lyman. The one that the Ukrainians have now broken through.

If thats true its possible we might see another swift advance by Ukrainian forces in the area and a mass surrender of Russians relatively soon. There is little to no incentive for them to fight on. Especially headed into winter. The Russians all know the history of Stalingrad, but I'm betting not too many wish to repeat the experience for the glory of Russia...

It's like watching a train crash. Honestly, this is so bad it's bound to be over pretty soon.

Not sure if this was mentioned yet, but there's been quite a few plane losses by Russia. According to CIT, Russian planes have to fly quite close to front line to drop their bombs so get shot down quite easily. It indicates that Russia has issues with artillery supplies - most likely due to logistics.

Also, in recent attack in Odessa a few days ago, Russia hit one of Ukraine's high ranking command posts with the Iranian drone. It's not very powerful and won't do that much damage to a building, so it would have been more logical to use a high precision missile, such as Kalibr. Which indicates that they're either really stupid, or they are very short on those. Although the latter doesn't exclude the former...

Why Putin would want to blow up Nord Stream 2 and the advantages it gives him - The Russian leader has a record of weaponising fuel supplies and believes his people can endure economic pain longer than Western Europe

Maybe the plan is to flood Ukraine with Russian pows in order to stretch humanitarian and supply chains in Ukraine

Also, in recent attack in Odessa a few days ago, Russia hit one of Ukraine's high ranking command posts with the Iranian drone. It's not very powerful and won't do that much damage to a building, so it would have been more logical to use a high precision missile, such as Kalibr. Which indicates that they're either really stupid, or they are very short on those. Although the latter doesn't exclude the former...

The target in Odessa was a headquarters building, but it's likely that command operations would have been moved underground or to a safer/less obvious location. They are very low on Kalibr missiles. There is an inventory level where they have to stop using them in order to have some in reserve. And yes to the stupidity. Putin is probably picking the targets.

Maybe the plan is to flood Ukraine with Russian pows in order to stretch humanitarian and supply chains in Ukraine

Anything is possible with the Russians, but a country as large as Ukraine should be able to feed another 50-100k people pretty easily. And most of the conscripts are going to die, not surrender. The FSB and the Chechens will do everything possible to make it difficult for them to surrender.

I can't help feeling that Putin is very dangerous right now.

The mobilisation carries great internal risks for him. It's an admission the "operation" isn't going well and dents his and the Russian Military's prestige greatly.

I also feel Putin has underestimated the power of social media. He can clamp down on broadcast as much as he likes, but the demonstrations and particularly videos of new conscripts with rusty weapons, no supplies and no training isn't going to play well in the cities. He's making the Russian people hurt and they don't like it - even the ones who had their Z flags flying at the start of the invasion.

His back is against the wall and yet he keeps doubling down.

I can only see an end to this coming from within Russia, where a significant number of former Putin loyalists "call time" to save their own skin and pin the blame on him.

Such a bloody waste. I really sob for the injustice and the misery Putin has unleashed on the Ukrainian people.

The Putin regime's behaviour towards their own conscripts is horrifying. Ordinary Russians are just meat to Putin, aren't they?