Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

There's chaos everywhere, so a lot of people who want to do this kind of stuff will see this as an opportunity.

The published specifications for these weapons are always well below what they can actually do. You want potential adversaries to underestimate them, so they think they're safe when they are not. We saw this with HIMARS. They consistently hit targets 15km or more beyond their published range.

With actual Russian Nazis??

Good thread from @velinatchakarova

"It's time for a big thread 🧵 about the global triple crisis in fuel, food and fertilizers.
When it started, how it continues, and what lies ahead amid Russia's war on Ukraine in Europe and the growing Sino-American bifurcation of the global system"

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1574162334813229057.html

It's all going to plan. Newly mobilized troops have been moved to central training areas where they have spent four days... wandering around aimlessly, without any equipment.

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1574323754095841280

And, If they want body armor, they must buy it themselves. How egalitarian.

Tbf one of the complaints Ukrainians have had is many have had to buy body armour themselves. One criticism soliders themselves have had is the number of lives that could have been saved if more had been available.

I know this is one of the things that there has been a lot of fundraising in the west for.

@MissConductUS

The published specifications for these weapons are always well below what they can actually do.

I'm afraid that's certainly not always the case with some aviation related systems I've worked with.

In the olden days Janes "All The world's Missiles" etc/nowadays the web/wiki give a generic figure that probably about in the ball park for some engagements..

The underlying problem with surface to air and air to air missile is what is possible in terms of range is often highly dependent on the dynamics of the engagement.

In some circumstances your maximum range might be well beyond the publicly quoted figure, sometimes a lot less.

Fair point about the body armor. Even some NATO armies don't have enough. The quote that struck me the most was "There is no combat training". Eventually, these men will be sent to undermanned units at the front, where they will be as much a liability as an asset.

There's been a lot of discussion on how to manage Russia's nuclear threats. I thought this provided a good analysis of the options.

A Decision Tree for Biden If Putin Goes Nuclear - One question is how to retaliate against a Russian nuclear strike. Another is whether to announce it clearly or vaguely, publicly or privately.

Ukrainian forces are making good progress at Lyman and to its North.

Map from pro-Russian Rybar again, as they assess things for 1pm Ua time today. Also, for instance:

twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1574380905027850241?s=20&t=EubT948rysIGuO3U-77gKQ

Three days old, but footage of Strelkov/Girkin with English subtitles explaining that the Bakhmut area where Russian Wagner forces are perhaps the strongest will just get flanked if they advance more:

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1574367403995435008?s=20&t=EubT948rysIGuO3U-77gKQ

Three days old, but footage of Strelkov/Girkin with English subtitles explaining that the Bakhmut area where Russian Wagner forces are perhaps the strongest will just get flanked if they advance more:

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1574367403995435008?s=20&t=EubT948rysIGuO3U-77gKQ

Girkin: "Our best units are being wasted on not needed offensive operations."

Music to my ears. Russian stupidity. Hope UAF flanks, encircles and destroys the Wagner forces.

The latter half of his clip is memorable.

He's in front of a Novorossiya flag - the imagined statelet that the faux referendums make unnecessary I suppose.

What do we make of Blinken’s comments that the US have ‘a plan’ in the event of a Russian nuclear attack. Assume they’re trying to put public nerves at ease (they have made clear that privately they are engaging directly with the Kremlin) but doesn’t it give Putin’s threats legitimacy?

Well, it doesn’t make me feel any better (the jitters are back) however I actually think it’s a good idea when someone is bouncing up and down and threatening you with a huge nuclear arsenal to at least pretend that you’re taking them seriously.

I mean I would have been more concerned and surprised if they didn’t have a plan.

My understanding is that Putin's threats were against NATO not Ukraine

I think he probably said the only thing he really could say, he had to say something I suppose. It seems to me that these threats are being taken seriously and that the US is being firm and drawing a red line, so it makes sense to keep the messaging consistent in public too.

blueshoes
Hope UAF flanks, encircles and destroys the Wagner forces.

It is my opinion that if every member of the Wagner group, from command down, were to drop dead this evening the world would be a better place, and once they had been cremated or buried to get rid of the bodies a cleaner place as well..

Oh they'll have several plans for sure...

But from the rhetoric it almost sounded as the Russian senior leadership had been told something quite direct along the lines of "we know where you live, you'll be first"

As a professional coward, I did agree with what Blinken said about how all the loose talk about nuclear weapons should stop.

I’ll join you in that club. It’s absolutely exhausting isn’t it!?

mobile.twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1574277002424913920 tweet states that at Kupyansk, Russian forces, lightly armed conscripts with no tactics charged the Ukrainian lines head on. They say if they showed photos they would be banned from Twitter. Saying it was a massacre

It's horrendous. It simultaneously keeps people in a state of heightened tension while somehow making the idea of nuclear war more 'normal' in a way that's really horrifying (and dangerous.) It's really highlighted how nuclear weapons aren't just a deterrent- you don't need to actually use them to use them as leverage to get away with literal murder. Disarmament seems such a long way off but I do hope there's some way eventually to rid the world of these horrible things.

I really hope that a renewed push towards peace is the ultimate outcome of all this but I sadly fear it simply isn’t compatible with human nature.

@notimagain, I see your point about missile performance. An air to air missile on an upward trajectory will lose range compared to one on a downward trajectory, for example.

It's not hard news, but I enjoyed this interview. The Ukrainians are really very good with public relations.

First lady of Ukraine shares message to American people - First lady Olena Zelenska reacts to the latest developments in her country's war with Russia and shares what she's doing to help Ukrainians heal.

Just awful. For the Ukraine forces, it is almost like killing civilians. Those conscripts did not know what they were doing and did not stand a chance. Why couldn't they just surrender?