Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

It is. And I am sick of all of it. Everyone involved needs to calm the fuck down and at least negotiate for a ceasefire, a temporary one if needs be, so everyone can draw breath. What has happened to Ukrainians is unspeakably awful and what is happening to these conscripts is also terrible. Half the world is either bloody terrified, cold, skint, hungry or all four because of this war. It needs to just bloody stop.

(Sorry for irrational shouting on your lovely thread, clever people. I’ll shut up now.)

This is positive. One of the key mitigating factors in the Cold War was the open channels of dialogue and ‘guard rails’ against accidental escalation through miscalculation that they provided.

If this story is confirmed of course..

I've seen a bit of discussion over recent days on a well known Army forum about the issue of conscripts just surrendering en-mass and the commonly expressed opinion is it's not as easy as it sounds...

Leaving aside the actions of supposedly friendly forces at the rear there's the whole issue of whether in the heat of battle those you are trying to surrender to understand your intentions correctly....

I'm sure those with more experience and training in this sort of warfare can provide a more comprehensive and considered response than I can.

I'm sure those with more experience and training in this sort of warfare can provide a more comprehensive and considered response than I can.

It's unlikely to be conscripts just called up in the mobilization that started last week. They' barely done in processing at this point.

There is a law against surrendering now in Russia and a lot of them will have families who can suffer.

I suspect at well they had ~no~ idea at ALL what they were up against, fighting Ukrainians

About the Ukrainians having to source body armour - true, but then they were not the country expecting to actively go to war. Not really, I mean the invasion of Crimea happened but that's a very different thing from a full blown invasion of the whole country.

You'd have expected Putin to arrange better military equipment for soldiers because he's been more than clear that he expected to take Ukraine and then the other border countries, in time.

Sorry @notimagain, I forgot to put my usual caveat about it being unconfirmed

Great thread on the possibility of nuclear use and why it wouldn't achieve what Putin wants: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1574290665390981121.html

One thing that's become clear is the extent to which the Russian army has been hollowed out by kleptocracy. Money allocated to equipment is diverted. Some is acquired, but nowhere near enough. The Russians have an adequate secure battlefield radio, but very few of them. Hence the reports of Russians using stolen cell phones and consumer grade walkie-talkies.

Why Russian radios in Ukraine are getting spammed with heavy metal - Ukrainians are eavesdropping on the invaders and broadcasting on their frequencies

On Channel 4 News I just saw Ukrainians so well camouflaged with bits of tree that they looked as though they were part of the forest in Macbeth.

and Putin lives in the Kremlin, aka Dunsinane? :)

Not just civilians but Ukrainian civilians and children too. Forcibly conscripted and sent to the front lines.

I grew up my entire childhood and youth under the threat of nuclear weapon use by the USSR – and knowing that for every one bomb that the USSR had aimed at this bit of Europe, the USA probably had three. I remember the frightened people my own age living under that shadow which was normal for us all, and how they allowed it to spoil their enjoyment of things.

There was nothing I could do about it then, and there is nothing now. I simply learned that the only person I'd hurt by worrying about it was, and is, me. It's like every other possible horror about which I can do nothing (CoVid being a classic example, except for that I could wear a mask, and get vaccinated eventually; I still caught it, and I still had a really horrible time with it). If you can do nothing about a thing, then you just have to live with whatever it is and not let it rule your life.

Unconfirmed reports of US budgeting 12bn for Ukraine for next year

Unconfirmed!

On Channel 4 News I just saw Ukrainians so well camouflaged with bits of tree that they looked as though they were part of the forest in Macbeth.

Those are called Ghillie Suits and have been used for over a century.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghillie_suit

Unconfirmed reports of US budgeting 12bn for Ukraine for next year

Do you have a link? All of the aid packages that have been in the news were funded by a single $47bn appropriation approved in May. It's too early to know what will actually be in the 2023 budget now. Someone may have proposed $12bn for next year.

These channels have always been in place. In some ways it shows that all wars are proxy wars.

ISIS sent captured 15 and 16 years old into the front driving suicide vehicles. There were some very disturbing images of children crying as they drove knowing they would die. Putin and the Kremlin are no better than ISIS. Pirates is the most appropriate term and I use that with some thought.

Yea in theory they have but there have been concerns expressed recently that the Russians weren’t using them and that they weren’t functioning as they should have been recently, in turn increasing the risk of miscalculation.

As I understand it, there is a strong hunting tradition in Ukraine, and therefore a lot of people who understand the concept of the ghillie suit, and how well it can work.

You have a lot more faith in camouflage when you have seen a sizeable deer get up out of knee-high cover, in which it was entirely invisible, and leg it off across the field.

Thoughtful piece

Putin sees himself as engaged in an existential war with the West
Andrew Monaghan
The most important strategic decision a wartime leader must make is determining the nature of the war they are fighting. With Putin’s most recent announcement, it looks ever more as though Moscow sees the conflict in Ukraine as part of an existential struggle against the West.

engelsbergideas.com/notebook/putin-sees-himself-as-engaged-in-an-existential-war-with-the-west/

Í don't, no (well Fuat but he's not the most reliable, which is why I emphasised unconfirmed). WarMonitor have just reported it too now, but not the source.

I found it. It's going into the stop gap spending bill.

www.politico.com/newsletters/huddle/2022/09/26/shutdown-clock-ticking-louder-00058789

The current budget officially expires on Friday, so they have to pass a temporary spending bill to fund the government until a new budget is passed. This madness happens every year. If the money runs out and they are still negotiating the new budget, they pass another temporary spending bill.

$12bn is good. That will keep the military supplies coming for a good while.

I remember from previous years, it's been pretty hairy sometimes hasn't it!

Excellent that it's confirmed.

@MissConductUS going back to your link

First lady of Ukraine shares message to American people - First lady Olena Zelenska reacts to the latest developments in her country's war with Russia and shares what she's doing to help Ukrainians heal.

As the Ukrainian First Lady says to the American people, please never stop your support for us. It is very important for us. We feel it and we are very grateful for it. ... It is a war for values, for freedom, for all that we love, all the people of the world, we love our children, we love our homes, we love our homelands, and that is what Ukrainians are fighting for now.

Good point about Madam Zelenska's comments in her televised interview, @blueshoes. That was broadcast just as congress was finalizing the stop gap spending bill, so a bit of a nudge to keep funding for Ukraine in the bill. Between her and the foreign minister, they have thoroughly charmed and connected with the American people. I don't think it was necessary, but it certainly didn't hurt.

I think there are still a few billion left from the authorization in May. Adding $12bn now both reassures Ukraine that we stand with them and shows Putin that we are not going anywhere. The US and Ukraine had very good relations before the invasion. Ironically, Putin has set them up to be a very close, long term military ally of the US. I'm sure President Zelensky has Lloyd Austin's mobile number. I don't think that's what Putin was hoping for.