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Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

995 replies

MagicFox · 22/09/2022 06:51

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

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blueshoes · 24/09/2022 16:20

@Ijsbear I agree wholeheartedly with your analysis about the dangers of NATO caving in to or being seen to cave in to the Putin's nuclear threat. The current temperature is about right.

People would have noticed that US/NATO has since the start of the war been dripping weapons through to Ukraine (partly politics, logistics and partly needing to train Ukraine troops on using them) and it is now making a significant difference to the battlefield. US/NATO are already involved and have been from the start. Russia is a frog in boiling water.

EmeraldShamrock1 · 24/09/2022 16:40

If we crumble, then every country in the world knows that all you have to do to get your own way is threaten nuclear.
It isn't an option any weakness will be met with force from Russia.

MagicFox · 24/09/2022 17:17

Well this is something to think about..

@noahbarkin

Former Putin adviser: “I would not exclude the possibility that Xi suggested to his junior partner to finish his business against Ukraine as soon as possible — for example, before the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October — and not with Putin's defeat”

twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1573597922545090561?s=46&t=eYcUHSX40n2ah47Cf7Y7yQ

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blueshoes · 24/09/2022 18:07

@Ijsbear thanks as always for your daily takeaways. Always avidly read.

In other news I think our duckling eggs are starting to hatch [sorry for the indulgence]

Heals the soul in the heart of darkness. I hope the ducklings made it out ok and your Ukrainian guest take comfort that life and hope goes on.

Igotjelly · 24/09/2022 18:08

blueshoes · 24/09/2022 18:07

@Ijsbear thanks as always for your daily takeaways. Always avidly read.

In other news I think our duckling eggs are starting to hatch [sorry for the indulgence]

Heals the soul in the heart of darkness. I hope the ducklings made it out ok and your Ukrainian guest take comfort that life and hope goes on.

Oh this is wonderful! I hope you intend to spam the thread with pictures….

Igotjelly · 24/09/2022 18:24

Deputy Defence Minister in charge of Logistics (largely consisted a weak link in the offensive) has been replaced by Mikhail Mizintsev aka the Butcher of Mariupol. A frankly vile human being!

Ijsbear · 24/09/2022 18:27

Igotjelly · 24/09/2022 18:08

Oh this is wonderful! I hope you intend to spam the thread with pictures….

well ... this is the first one! apparently it can take 24 hours for them to hatch and #1 egg hasn't progressed any further than a small hole ... but #2 egg is developing a black spot it seems!

+++

I hope that the Butcher of Mariupol is worse at Logistics than he is at arranging massacres :/

Ukraine Invasion: Part 31
blueshoes · 24/09/2022 18:31

From ducklings hatching to the POWs being released Smile

I still cannot believe that Ukraine got so many of their POWs back. Wonderful that British POWs Aiden Aslin, Shaun Pinner, US POWs and others were also released. This news still makes me happy and relieved.

Although reputation rehabilitation probably played a role in the brokers' motivation, it is still amazing that they persevered and succeeded. Abramovich is looking good.

www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-crown-prince-roman-abramovich-played-role-in-russia-ukraine-prisoner-swap-11663970979?page=1

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Roman Abramovich Played Role in Russia-Ukraine Prisoner Swap
Agreement that freed more than 250 prisoners, brokered by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, took months to negotiate

... Mr. Abramovich personally accompanied 10 prisoners, including British and American detainees captured by Russia in Ukraine, onto a private jet that took them to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from Russia earlier this week, Saudi officials said. Other people familiar with the situation confirmed Mr. Abramovich’s involvement.

... The unusual cast of characters involved in the agreement shows how Ukraine is reaching beyond its traditional partners to secure diplomatic breakthroughs when Ukrainian forces are making gains against Russia on the battlefield.

Saudi Arabia’s involvement was perhaps the most surprising aspect of the exchange, which was also brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Until the prisoner negotiations, the Saudi kingdom played little role in any diplomacy surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has drawn closer to Russia in recent years.

“Our aim is to save people, and we needed a country who is strong and independent with leverage over our northern neighbor,” said Rustem Umerov, a Ukrainian negotiator who was involved in the prisoner swap. “We shared the risks by separating the tracks. For foreign POWs, we cooperated with Saudi Arabia, and Ukrainian POWs, we cooperated with Turkey.”

... Mr. Abramovich, the former owner of Chelsea Football Club, has acted as a backchannel between Russia and Ukraine since the early days of the war, showing up during peace negotiations in Istanbul and helping to negotiate a deal in July that unlocked Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports, according to officials and others familiar with the talks. He also played a central role in the prisoner negotiations, said Mr. Umerov.

“He facilitated all the POW-exchange matters with Russian officials, including different agencies and ministries and contributed to their release effort,” said Mr. Umerov, who is the special envoy of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky.

... Prince Mohammed was personally involved in the negotiations, Saudi and American officials said.

... Ukrainian officials said they initially pushed to release a group of 50 prisoners of war, but through diplomacy unlocked a deal for even more.

“It was cooked for a very long, long time,” Mr. Umerov said of the deal. “Until the last person crossed the border, there was such huge tension.”

blueshoes · 24/09/2022 18:35

well ... this is the first one! apparently it can take 24 hours for them to hatch and #1 egg hasn't progressed any further than a small hole ... but #2 egg is developing a black spot it seems!

@Ijsbear We await your updates in the daily takeaways.

MagicFox · 24/09/2022 18:39

Loving the eggs 🥚

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Ijsbear · 24/09/2022 19:12

blueshoes · 24/09/2022 18:35

well ... this is the first one! apparently it can take 24 hours for them to hatch and #1 egg hasn't progressed any further than a small hole ... but #2 egg is developing a black spot it seems!

@Ijsbear We await your updates in the daily takeaways.

heheheh okay 😊

PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior · 24/09/2022 21:48

Xi Jinping rumours still all over twitter, but as far as I can see none of the big outlets are wading in yet.

Igotjelly · 24/09/2022 21:51

I think to be honest the Xi rumours are just that, rumours. When I looked earlier it was trending but all small numbers (around 6k tweets).

RedBea · 24/09/2022 22:38

May sound stupid but with the Ukrainian advances are they anywhere near Mariupol? I’ll never forget the siege of Mariupol & hope the day comes very soon it is taken back

Ijsbear · 24/09/2022 22:45

It's a long way off yet :(

It's gone quiet about Mariupol but the misery there must be medieval.

MMBaranova · 24/09/2022 23:21

Russian side reports are of the Ukrainians pushing East in a breakthrough to the North of Lyman (outlined middle bottom) from Lozove (top left). They suggest Russian counterattacks are trying to contain this. The area concerned is around the Kharkiv / Donetsk Oblast boundary (broken white line) and is where the videos of downed Russian planes have been located to.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 31
MMBaranova · 24/09/2022 23:39

My emphasis of parts of the top half of the main report circulating that seems to originate with the Russian Rybar mapping and reporting site.

In the Redkodub area, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to take advantage of their numerical superiority and push through the defence of the RF Armed Forces. Ukrainian formations entered the operational space to the north of the settlement, where there is no continuous line of defence.

Ukrainian formations established control over Redkodub, Karpovka, Novoe after a successful attack from Lozovoe.

Reinforcements of motorized rifle formations of the 20th Army, arriving in time, carried out a successful counterattack and recaptured the villages of Karpovka and Novoye.

The enemy is entrenched in the village of Redkodub, fierce battles are going on in the vicinity.

Image: Redkodub outlined with the other named settlements to SW and SE in a rural area. Map Eng/Ua, report from Ru so spelling mismatch.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 31
blueshoes · 25/09/2022 00:10

@MMBaranova thanks for the update on Ukraine's progress in the East. Good to hear that Ukraine has superiority in numbers. That is a change from previous reports where they were outnumbered by the Russians by 8:1 and also out-gunned.

Sounds like a hard slog but looks like UAF are slowly making their way south. They are headed for Mariupol eventually.

MissConductUS · 25/09/2022 00:31

The UAF are attacking Russian positions in Lyman from three directions. It's very unlikely the Russians will hold it for long. Russia is actually risking aircraft to defend it but several have been shot down.

Igotjelly · 25/09/2022 08:01

flagging due to the possible ramifications for EU sanctions.

Far right coalition set to take power in Italy, led by the historically fascist Brothers of Italy party. Would be the most right wing govt in Italy since WW2. Very depressing.

MagicFox · 25/09/2022 08:15

Yes wholly depressing Jelly. It feels like everywhere is coming unstuck at once

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Qisk · 25/09/2022 08:19

What is their position on NATO and Russia I wonder.

MagicFox · 25/09/2022 08:31

I think Meloni is pro-Russian I'm afraid and I've read elsewhere there's been Russian funding around her (though no source so happy to be corrected).

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Qisk · 25/09/2022 08:35

But that was Osborne, Johnson and London for the last 20 years until Putin confirmed his spots never change. Surely the church will also have an influence on this issue.

Igotjelly · 25/09/2022 08:44

I think she’s quite publicly backed NATO support of Ukraine and sanctions but that’s largely been suspected to be in order to get votes. Berlusconi is also expected to form part of the coalition and only 2 days ago he was telling us all how poor Putin had been forced to invade Ukraine…

Most recent episode of Ukraine the Latest was discussing the different views of EU states rot taking in men fleeing conscription. Seem to be 2 main view points:

  1. you let them in with the hope that News then filters back into Russia through their friends and family (Germany’s view)
  2. you keep them in Russia with a view to increasing public unrest and pressure on the regime. View is that if you let them leave it relieves any pressure.