Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

Also meant to say: no updates so far on the Xi rumours, still think this is a load of rubbish

I can’t work out if it would be good for the Russia situation or not. I don’t know enough about other candidates and their position in the issue.

what is clear is that Xi’s China hasn’t given Russia any tacit support either against Ukraine or on evading sanctions. Clearly a more vocal anti-Russia stance would be helpful but alternatively there is so much scope for it to be worse.

Re the referendum, my guest said he had seen a Telegram post from someone in Kherson saying that if you vote yes to being part of Russia they give you a Russian passport and say ‘now you’ve got to join up and defend the motherland.’
So it may be a cover for conscription as well as for the annexation itself?

Apologies in advance for some thread drift but given previous posts:

I agree drone warfare at infantry level/boots level is not just around the corner (see conclusion). I'd also agree sometimes people don't understand how many apparently autonomous systems actually still require one on one human input.

OTOH I'm not sure I'd use current NASA missions as an example of the current state of play. Most aerospace projects have design freezes in place several years ahead of first construction/in service or launch dates and often a choice is made to use slightly mature IT architecture and components so as to benefit from demonstrated reliability and performance.

There's some interesting stuff out there at lab/academic level -

techcrunch.com/2022/05/04/swarming-drones-autonomously-navigate-a-dense-forest-and-chase-a-human/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALp_lGcpM6-CS1q804uV-AJMI-mLBLw0Lfx0lA-ThadJa7cj7VjWRekWPvoVCnX8X30BMKBYCp2egUVo0uvH4MpGROJMOBUNRAsL77Jc1XFN5CTw5RpcrFFAkehMIvligmnPeORpwO4CRkPA3GyynIlnyHDnI4VrlaqYLXiymVcU

Oh and......

Ultimately I suspect this like the unpiloted airliners debate that surfaces occasionally - "just around the corner" is in reality some time off where "some time off" is undefined..

I hope your right. Seen on another thread that some think Ukraine will eventually compromise and agree to Russia keeping what it has taken. The idea horrifies me, that millions of Ukrainian people will be offered up as sacrificial lambs.

Aren't the turn out figures Russia has given for the referendum only for day one? Haven't they got till 27th September to cook the books?

I'm very much afraid that the number of millions in the occupied territories is a great deal smaller than when Russia first marched in, and not because they managed to evacuate.

+++

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian partial mobilization efforts are suffering from serious and systemic problems in their first days, generating popular resentment and setting conditions to produce a mobilized reserve force incapable of accomplishing the tasks Russian President Vladimir Putin has set for it.

Protests, attacks against recruiting centers, and vandalism have occurred across Russia in the first 48 hours after the announcement of partial mobilization.

Ukrainian forces continued to advance north and northwest of Lyman.

Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast and maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian progress on the axis.

Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults near Bakhmut and northwest of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down an Iranian-made Mohajer-6 drone in an unspecified area of the Black Sea, likely near Odesa.

Russian occupation authorities began the voting period for their sham annexation referenda on September 23 with overt coercion and falsified turnout numbers.

Russian occupation authorities remained on high alert to prevent partisan attacks against sham election workers, polling stations, and government facilities.

+++

Zelenskyy:
I have a simple request to all our people in the temporarily occupied territory: do the main thing – save your lives and help us weaken and destroy the occupiers.

Hide from the Russian mobilization by any means. Avoid conscription letters. Try to get to the free territory of Ukraine.

But if you already get into the Russian army, then sabotage any activity of the enemy, hinder any Russian operations, provide us with any important information about the occupiers – their bases, headquarters, warehouses with ammunition. And at the first opportunity, switch to our positions. Do everything to save your life and help liberate Ukraine.

+++

⚡️ Meduza: At least 5 recruitment offices set on fire in Russia amid mobilization.

⚡️ Lukashenko: 'There will be no mobilization in Belarus.'

⚡️ AP: UN rights experts turn up evidence of Russia's war crimes in Ukraine.
"We were struck by the large number of executions in the areas that we visited," said Erik Mose, the commission's chairman.

⚡️ Governor: Armed Russian proxies in Luhansk Oblast knock on doors, demand locals to 'vote' on joining Russia. "If a person doesn't open the door, (Russian forces) threaten to break in. When a person ticks 'no' in the 'ballot,' they make notes," Haidai said.

⚡️ General Staff: Ukraine liberates Yatskivka in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Zelensky rebukes Israel for 'zero' military support, slams China's 'ambiguous' position on war.

⚡️Zelensky appoints new Ukrainian ambassador to Germany.

⚡️Meduza: Russia plans to mobilize 1.2 million conscripts for war against Ukraine.
Meduza, a Russian media outlet, cited a government source.

⚡️Finland to introduce entry visa restrictions for Russians.

⚡️Stoltenberg: Russia will face ‘severe consequences’ if it uses nuclear weapons.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview with CNN that the alliance seeks to prevent any use of nuclear weapons by Russia.

⚡️Media: Men can’t leave Russian-occupied Crimea without military permission.

⚡️Top EU official calls for suspending Russia from UN Security Council.
European Council President Charles Michel said that Russia should be suspended for launching an “unprovoked and unjustified war.”

⚡️Ukraine completes exhumation of bodies at mass burial site in liberated Izium.
Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Synehubov said that 436 bodies had been exhumed from the graves, mostly with signs of violent death, including 30 bodies with signs of torture.
Only 21 people were soldiers, while the rest were civilians, including children.
“Corpses with ropes around their necks, with their hands tied, with broken limbs and gunshot wounds. Several men had their genitals amputated. Most of the bodies are civilians, 21 are military personnel,” said the head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration.

⚡️Zelensky: Russia trying to mobilize 'as many men as possible' among Crimean Tatars. "This is a deliberate attempt by Russia to destroy the Crimean Tatar people," Zelensky said.

⚡️Bloomberg: Russian billionaire Abramovich met Saudi Prince for Russia-Ukraine POW exchange.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly asked President Joe Biden earlier in March not to sanction Abramovich as he could serve as an intermediary in Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

⚡️ UK intelligence: Russian forces try to strike dams to flood Ukrainian military crossing points.

⚡️ Update: Death toll due to Russian attack on Odesa with Iranian kamikaze drones rises. [these were reverse-engineered from captured US drones]

⚡️ SBU identifies Russian commander who ordered troops to torture Kherson residents. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) said on Sept. 24 that it identified Alexander Naumenko, a Russian commander who reportedly instructed Russian troops to kidnap and torture Kherson residents.

⚡️ General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel 10 Russian attacks.

💡IAEA Director General promised to increase the number of representatives at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant — Denys Shmyhal

❗️People from the occupied Crimea and the Rostov region of Russia were brought to Kherson for the "referendum" — the Yellow Ribbon Movement

📣 Nataliia Humeniuk, Head of the Joint Coordination Press Centre of the South Defence Force, told about fierce fighting in the south of Ukraine
"It's quite 'hot' in the south: the fire is on both sides.

📌 The German Bundestag did not vote on the decision to transfer tanks to Ukraine
Instead, the CDU/CSU party’s proposal was referred to the Foreign Affairs Committee for discussion, which will significantly delay the decision.

👥 Consultations on the 8th sanctions package have started in the EU and will continue over the weekend — media

📌Putin is preparing a significant increase in defense spending, according to Bloomberg.
Defense spending will exceed the original budget estimates for next year by more than 43%. [so he's obviously preparing for the war to go on a long time, which tallies with what the Western experts have said]

🙌 If Russia stops fighting, there will be no war. If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken

⚡️ 22 EU countries will join the suit of Ukraine against the Russian Federation in the European Court of Human Rights, – Deutsche Welle

💵 As part of the new sanctions, a number of EU countries are proposing to ban the transfer of dollar banknotes to Russia and tighten restrictions on cryptocurrency transactions, – Bloomberg

📌 US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken held a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, during which the issue of war in Ukraine was discussed – US State Department [I hadn't picked up this was going to happen]

[ Photo ]
🔺 Invaders dropped containers with poison on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, - Operational Command "Pivden" ("South")

“With the help of an unmanned aerial vehicle, containers with a poisonous substance, presumably a K-51 chloropicrin grenade, were dropped onto our combat positions. The combat medics did a good job, there are no casualties or critical conditions,” the command said.
[The use of chemical weopons ...... this is supposed to trigger various events now, though Im not holding my breath]

🇲🇳 Former Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj urged Russians not to fight against Ukraine
He invited the Buryats, Tuvans, and Kalmyks to flee to his country in order to avoid forced mobilization in the Russian Federation.

+++

🔎 The UN commission found evidence of war crimes committed in Ukraine
The commission focused on four regions: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv.
"We were struck by the large number of executions in the areas we visited. The commission is now investigating such deaths in 16 cities and towns," said Erik Møse, Chair of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine.
UN investigators spoke to more than 150 victims and witnesses and visited 27 cities and towns, where they investigated mass burials as well as detention and torture centers.
The commission found that the Russians:
🔴bombarded Ukrainian towns without distinguishing between civilians and the military, particularly using "cluster munitions or multiple rocket launchers and air strikes."
🔴 beaten, electrocuted, stripped of all clothes of forced prisoners
🔴 illegally arrested and raped, particularly children. The victims ranged in age from 4 to 82 years-old.

In other news I think our duckling eggs are starting to hatch [sorry for the indulgence]

TokyoSushi · Today 08:23

^Igotjelly · Today 08:12
Wouldn’t it be ironic if the Russian’s fixed the result to be that joining Russia was a mistake and used it as an excuse to get the fuck out of there 😂

One can dream.

katem98 · Today 08:18*
I was inwardly thinking (hoping) for this 😂

That would he amazing! 'Ah they dont want to join us, sorry for all the trouble, we'll get our coats!'

I was also wondering about saying, “Who wants to be Russian? Here is (a big handout) in compensation for you to leave Ukraine and move to Russia for good. You will be given every assistance.”

I've just seen that the russian recruits get 2 weeks basic training before being shipped to the front line. 2 bloody weeks. They're not getting enough training to even give them a chance of staying alive. At the start of WW2 british basic training was 8 weeks, by the end it was 16 weeks. These men are being sent to die not to fight.

Here's a peek at the top-quality kit the "recruits" are getting.

twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1573582019979841536

There must be a tipping point at which it becomes less scary to protest against the state and get beaten up/go to prison, than to face likely death on the battlefield.

They've got 3 more days to cook the books record numbers voting. I wouldn't be surprised if turnout ended up being really high, at least 110%

On a serious (and obvious) note, it's impossible to run a credible referendum or vote at a few days notice. There's no time to validate the voting register or to check that those voting even live in the area. Not that the Russians care - it's just ballot box stuffing with "Yes" votes. Would anyone even dare vote "No" in front of the soldiers armed electoral officers wielding the ballot papers in what is clearly not an anonymous process

Ukraine has consistently made it clear they will take every inch of territory back. They have not wavered from this stance and I don't think it is a negotiation 'opener'. It is a redline. When you see the war crimes and atrocities committed against their people in occupied territories, you can see why they will want to liberate their people and not agree to agree to any negotiations which do not involve the withdrawal of Russia troops on their soil.

I don't know if I am right but my hope is that their allies will continue to vigorously support Ukraine in this aim militarily.

With Russian soldiers, the third and most likely option is to get drunk.

mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1573626829340086275 I will just leave this here

My understanding was that the protesters were arrested then forced directly into military service - unless that has been debunked?

Thank you for that clip @minsmum

Seen a reliable Tweeter commenting that the Ru are perhaps regaining some ground taken in the counteroffensive

That was always going to happen I think. War generally ebs and flows. The frontline is so long that holding it becomes difficult without massive force.

Sky News reporting that Putin has rejected his own general’s calls to withdraw from Kherson entirely.

speechless at the last line

Im sure not all the mobilization is like this but ...... !

Aibu to think it’s a deliberate way to resist? Send them people you know they will send back again?

Clearly they have an issue.

Sounds like Soviet (non-)thinking and covering your backside. Some official got the numbers, hit the targets and cannot be criticised, even if there is no way these bodies can fight. Recruits get sent back and can probably be recycled back into the numbers. After all, weren't they recruiting the dead.

Sensible comment re Putin's threatening speech

It's true but at the same time it sounds like an attempt to say NATO should never be involved. Im not sure that's true. Putin is going to escalate the moment he feels he is losing, no matter who or what is involved.

All the way along he's made NATO a thing, against the reality of the situation that a big country invaded a small one. He wants it to be against NATO to give his war some sort of giant meaning, he wants NATO to be the baddy so he can feel the hero standing agaisnt the Great Evil.

But it's not the case.

NATO has tried very hard to stay at a distance, but Putin here is dragging it in.

I think regarding nuclear, someone (Lawrence Freedman? someone else?) put it the best. China and India etc are watching how the West and NATO stands up to nuclear threats.

If we crumble, then every country in the world knows that all you have to do to get your own way is threaten nuclear.

When you are dealing with aggressive people, one day two aggressive leaders will come up against each other and one of them will use them. Laying down a pattern of calm and discerning refusal to be intimidated by nukes is better than crumbling so that an aggressor gets the impression that This Threat Works.

In the end one day it might happen that the nukes go off. We will reach this crisis point again and again, I fear, once this war is over. But wise and calm firmness is best. There is still a risk, but in the long term the risk is higher if we cave now.

Belatedly getting on the thread with .

Thanks, MagicFox.