Big Dog - Going, going, not quite gone. Thread 14.

[Notonthestairs]

Will it be Continuity Truss or "Socialist" Sunak in charge?

"By the way, today’s mega stimulus budget only makes political sense to me if Truss is thinking about an election late spring or autumn next year, or a year earlier than she has said"

twitter.com/peston/status/1573286277344120834?s=46&t=Jf32QWL2a6STsqe6jKNDrA

I mean this has to be part of the tories swan song hasn’t it? They’re simply looting until the next GE whenever that might be.

Looting in plain sight !
It's a scandal , but we are letting them get away with it.

I'm trying to find a benefit and struggling. I am shocked at this budget

I do think truss has said goodbye to the red wall for good

It was the old red wall who wanted brexit ' done. '
They may still believe in the conservatives and think this is all a good idea , who knows?
It always surprises me who votes for them, it's not always the rich. Many working class people prefer Conservative policies even if it doesn't really give them a better standard of living or seem to help them much , they believe they are better than the alternative and will die on their hill to defend their actions and beliefs at all costs.
A lot of my own family quote the daily Mail back to me about everything from the conservatives to Harry and Meghan.
I play 'daily Mail bingo' with them in my head!

The Real Living Wage is going up by 10.1% this week, that's a positive

If only the National Living Wage would too, that might actually help.

Paul Johnson

Worth repeating. Take all the tax changes coming in over next few years and:

If your income is < £155k, you lose

If your income is > £155k you win

If your income > £1m you gain more than £40,000

I’m watching sterling crash live right now, it’s literally plummeting like a stone. Watched it lose 1c in around 5 mins.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/data/currencies/gbp-pairs/GBPUSD-exchange-rate

The MPs who are against these new plans will let them carry on with it though.
It beggars belief.

Strong statement

The £ is predicted to fall to parity with the $ today. This feels very similar to Black Wednesday - anyone else remember that?

They will probably put interest rates up again
:(
It is like black Wednesday

I asked that when he went for PM.

One can only think it's for his gains (he wants the title) or he does genuinely care about the country - which he did appear to.

I haven't a clue tbh which one it is though

Kwasi Kwarteng has decided not to publish any of the Treasury’s distributional analysis of today’s announcements - very unusual for a fiscal event of this size.

twitter.com/benkentish/status/1573282107765448705?s=46&t=Jf32QWL2a6STsqe6jKNDrA

How very reassuring.

Andrew Marr not holding back here.

www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/andrew-marr/andrew-marr-kwasi-budget-gamble-of-a-lifetime/

I must say I had never expected a Conservative budget to be so closely aligned to the word gamble.

Makes you kind of miss "strong & stable."

Ed Conway Sky (20 minutes ago)

Pound now down to $1.092 vs US$.
That’s a more than 3% fall today.
And still dropping.
This is… unnerving.

Lewis Goodall

Worth remembering why this matters. Sterling tanks, we get poorer in relative terms. It results in inflation because all the foreign goods we buy become more expensive, which could quickly eliminate any gains people on ordinary incomes get from tax cuts if the slide is permanent.

And of course oil and gas are priced in dollars so the further the pound falls the more the energy price support costs. The more thr government need to borrow, the higher the yield on bonds will need to be and ultimately the mortgage rate will rise.
Happy days 😔

Isn’t the scam to buy loads of dollars before a currency falls, convert them to your preferred currency then sit on it till your currency picks back up? I’m sure I read a Jeffery Archer story on that once.

In 2007 Kwarteng criticised Gordon Brown, in @newstatesman, for increasing borrowing by £8bn: "Brown boasts of his relationship with Prudence, but is not embarrassed by increased government borrowing."

Today Kwarteng increased borrowing by… 9x as much. newstatesman.com/long-reads/200…

twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1573336949548515331?s=46&t=Jf32QWL2a6STsqe6jKNDrA

Golly.
Markets are now pricing in 5.5% interest rates from the @bankofengland next year.
Up from 4.75% yesterday.
Deutsche Bank saying BoE may need to table an emergency rate hike as soon as next week.
Extraordinary.
And, as I said yday, higher rates are a big, big deal.
Ugh.

twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1573341352259108870?s=46&t=Jf32QWL2a6STsqe6jKNDrA

I'm not going to pretend that I grasp a lot of economic Twitter right now but it's not looking unruffled is it?

Ben Chu tweeted on gilts

UK Gilt yield moves so far today in wake of the Chancellor's tax giveaway #minibudget2022

2 year 🔼38 basis points
5 year 🔼47 basis points
10 year 🔼20 basis points
30 year 🔼23 basis points

Be in no doubt - there's are LARGE daily moves by historic standards #riskpremium

twitter.com/BenChu_/status/1573322355463819265?t=vz90LhsdBt5Gt0ZiZuK2Uw&s=19

Am I right in thinking that borrowing just became a lot more expensive?

I'm not going to pretend that I grasp a lot of economic Twitter right now but it's not looking unruffled is it?*

Me neither but just looking at the words used, 'unnerving', 'ugh', it sounds very worrying

Deutsche Bank saying BoE may need to table an emergency rate hike as soon as next week

isn’t this the audience this budget was meant to appeal to?