Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

From the BBC website.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been involved in a car accident, his spokesman has revealed.
A passenger car collided with the presidential vehicle and his escort in the capital Kyiv, Sergii Nykyforov said in a short statement.
"The president was examined by a doctor, no serious injuries were found," he said.

Thank goodness he was not seriously injured.

Anybody else following this/ have any thoughts? https://twitter.com/ryp__/status/1570067215701118976?s=46&t=WYJeAG9RPQiiIVO3prjTgg

Good article calling for a more nuanced reading of the Xi-Putin meeting:

"The Wrong Way to View the Xi-Putin Meeting"
EVAN A. FEIGENBAUM

Summary:

All eyes will be on the China-Russia strategic partnership, but the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Central Asian members have greater confidence and bargaining power than ever before—and Beijing knows it.

carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/13/wrong-way-to-view-xi-putin-meeting-pub-87908

@MagicFox maybe to do with the meeting with xi? If he’s having to fly and being pretty paranoid maybe they have closed the airspace

ISW Key Takeaways

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Russian forces likely targeted Ukrainian hydrotechnical infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in order to interfere with Ukraine’s ability to operate across the Inhulets River

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Kharkiv Oblast continues to degrade Russian forces and threaten Russian artillery and air defenses.

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Ukrainian ground attacks in northern Kherson Oblast, western Kherson Oblast, and northwest of Kherson City but did not report any major gains.

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and northwest and southwest of Donetsk City.

Funding volunteer battalions is likely placing financial strain on Russian cities and oblasts.

Russian occupation authorities shut off mobile internet in occupied Luhansk Oblast on September 14, likely to preserve Russian operational security and better control the information environment as Russian forces, occupation officials, and collaborators flee newly-liberated Kharkiv Oblast for Russian and Russian-controlled territories

+++

Zelenskyy: The path to the return of all our territories is getting clearer. The path to the return of all our territories is getting clearer. We see the contours of restoration of our state’s territorial integrity. We know this is a hard path, but it is possible to pass it. And we are doing that.We know this is a hard path, but it is possible to pass it. And we are doing that. [it sounds like they have the overall shape of the battleplan ahead then]

+++

kyivindependent.com/opinion/andriy-zagorodnyuk-how-ukraines-counteroffensive-will-affect-russias-army-future-of-the-war

PM Shmyhal: Ukraine relies on partners to cover $38 billion budget deficit in 2023

⚡️Armenia calls on Russian-led military bloc to intervene against Azerbaijan.

⚡️Russia hits hydraulic facilities in Kryvyi Rih with missiles.

⚡️Partial evacuation of Kryvyi Rih announced after Russian missile attack on dam.

Ukraine war latest: Zelensky visits liberated Izium as Ukraine reports progress in southern counteroffensive (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-zelensky-visits-liberated-izium-as-ukraine-reports-progress-in-southern-counteroffensive)

⚡️Official: Ukraine has liberated 8,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast since Sept. 6.

⚡️⚡️General Staff: Ukrainian troops repel Russians' attempts to advance in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️U.S. senators introduce bipartisan bill to label Russia state sponsor of terrorism. U.S. President Joe Biden opposes the move, and administration officials have said the designation could even hold up humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

⚡️Guterres holds phone talk with Putin over fertilizers, Olenivka attack, Zaporizhzhia plant

⚡️Russian Defense Ministry publishes fake video of destroyed Ukrainian barge.
Russia's Defense Ministry published a video showing the destruction of a barge, on which Ukrainian Special Forces were supposedly being transported to retake the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
However, the “barge” was actually the support of a bridge built and mostly destroyed during WWII.

⚡️President Zelensky involved in car accident, not seriously harmed.

⚡️Danilov: Russian losses 9 to 10 times higher than Ukrainian losses during counteroffensive.

⚡️CNN: Russian deputy calling for Putin’s resignation refuses to back down. He has already been fined in court and will be threatened with jail time next.

⚡️Ukraine resumes rail service from Kharkiv to recently liberated Balakliia.

⚡️ EU extends sanctions against 1,206 individuals, 108 entities due to Russia's war.

⚡️ Ursula von der Leyen arrives in Kyiv to discuss Ukraine’s progress towards EU accession.

⚡️ Lithuania to send 2 shipments of armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.

⚡️ IMF appoints new mission chief for Ukraine.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has appointed Gavin Gray, who previously served as its Iraq mission chief, as its new mission chief for Ukraine.

⚡️ National Corruption Prevention Agency files protocols against Chernihiv mayor.
Protocols have been filed against Chernihiv Mayor Vladyslav Atroshenko for corruption and “conflict of interest,” Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported.

⚡️ Investigation Bureau detains 3 collaborators in Izium, Kupiansk.

⚡️ Poll: 87% of Ukrainians against territorial concessions regarding Russia's war.

🤝 The European Commission will allocate 100 million euros for the reconstruction of 74 Ukrainian schools as part of the Rapid Recovery Plan

⚡️Austria will build and equip three medical facilities in Ukraine. The projects will cost 600 million euros.

🚛 The US is actively involved in discussing the possibilities of transporting Kazakh oil through the Caspian Sea to world markets, bypassing Russia: the US State Department.

🔗 A group of creditor countries has postponed the payment of Ukraine's debt until the end of 2023, according to the website of the US Treasury.

📌 90% of wind energy and 30% of solar energy in Ukraine have been destroyed as a result of a full-scale invasion of the Russian army, Bloomberg reports citing research by the renewable energy think tank REN21 and the UN Economic Commission for Europe.

🪖 Nearly 5,000 Ukrainian servicemen successfully completed the training with the participation of instructors from Canada, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Ukraine and the United Kingdom itself
They received basic knowledge, skills, and abilities in tactical medicine, engineering, fire, psychological and tactical training, including offensive and defensive operations in urbanized terrain.

🛩 A civilian airplane took off from Ukraine
On Tuesday, September 13, a WizzAir airplane, which was stuck in Ukraine a few months ago, received permission to take off from Lviv.
This is the first civilian plane to depart from Ukraine since February 24.

No less than 4 planes lost, three Russian Su-25 and one Su-24

@Ijsbear thanks for the key takeaways.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Is Russia trying to distance itself from its recent abysmal performance? Hoping Russia will announce various goodwill gestures and blame the failures on Wagner.

frankly he seems much more effective than the Russian generals which is concerning.

His PMC is known for utterly abhorrent crimes that only the lowest of bestial humanity would commit though. I won't write them here. I saw the ' recruitment' video in prisons where the third 'sin' he named was looting of any sort, incl sexual, of men, women, children or animals. He certainly belongs to the Lavrov school of honesty.

Brief mention of Xi Jinping and Putin meeting:

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-15/china-s-xi-poised-for-first-putin-meeting-since-ukraine-invasion?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Here's some interesting speculation on how a variety of factors could interact to cause the disintegration of the Russian federation. It's from Bed Hodges, a retired US Army LT GEN who previously commanded the US Army Europe. He has a very good point about the economic consequences of losing energy and arms export markets.

Prepare for Russia itself to disintegrate

It is becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine is going to win this war and that the Kremlin faces a historic crisis of confidence. Indeed, I now believe it is a genuine possibility that Vladimir Putin’s exposed weaknesses are so severe that we might be witnessing the beginning of the end – not only of his regime, but of the Russian Federation itself.

This vast empire encompassing more than 120 ethnic groups is on an unsustainable footing, and like that famous Hemingway quote, its collapse may be gradual at first but could quickly become a sudden, violent and uncontrollable event. If we fail to prepare for this possibility in the way that we failed to prepare for the collapse of the Soviet Union, it could introduce immense instability to our geopolitics.

I see at least three factors that could lead to the Federation’s collapse. The first is the breakdown of domestic confidence in the Russian Army, which has traditionally been at the core of the Kremlin’s legitimacy. Its humiliation in Ukraine is now almost complete, with the proud Black Sea Fleet still hiding behind Crimea, too frightened to take action against a country that doesn’t even have a navy.

And Russian men, once enticed by the military’s pay offers, are shunning recruitment en masse in the knowledge of the fate the battlefield holds for them. This has exacerbated the disproportionate recruitment of ethnic minorities from Chechnya and other nations on the edges of the Federation – the easiest groups to use as cannon fodder – which has raised grievances that won’t easily be forgotten.

If some militant Chechens were to decide to trigger another war of independence, where would Putin find the military resources to fight it now that he has dedicated so much to Ukraine? He will no doubt be aware that if such a war is won quickly and decisively by the Chechens, it could trigger a wave of similar insurgencies across the Federation.

Second, the damage suffered by the Russian economy has been too devastating to sustain a population of 144 million. The loss of energy markets, which compensated for the country’s lack of modern industries, cannot be reversed. European governments will not rely again on Nord Stream 1, having witnessed how easily it can be turned off, and are already making long-term investments in domestic energy supply.

Russia has also relied on arms exports, but which country will be interested in buying its equipment or weapons now? Such an economic crisis can be sustained for months in the misplaced hope that business will one day return – but even in Russia the well of stoicism has its limits.

This brings us to the third factor, which is the sparse nature of Russia’s population. For despite possessing 70 times the landmass of the United Kingdom, the Federation has just twice the population. These numbers make civic solidarity difficult to achieve in the best of times, but now, with the metropole in a weak position, any sense of national identity could rapidly deteriorate.

Western sanctions will force Moscow’s elites to make difficult economic trade-offs. They will inevitably bail-out the middle classes in the capital, who pose a more immediate threat to officials, to the detriment of minority populations in the constituent nations.

Seen this way, it is shocking how little discussion there has been about the potential end of the Russian Federation. We ought to be asking difficult questions now lest they be sprung on us out of nowhere.

For instance, how would this play out in a country that has considerable stockpiles of nuclear weapons and few centres of power? Who would extract the nukes? How do we avoid leakage of weapons and militants into the Baltic states? Is a major internal conflict inevitable or can the collapse be contained within a political context?

Combined, these dilemmas pose a very significant challenge for the West. Get it wrong and we could face disaster. Our failure to prepare for the last Russian collapse some 30 years ago, and the internal unrest that ensued in its aftermath, arguably led to the Putin presidency. We cannot risk being unprepared a second time.

.. it is shocking how little discussion there has been about the potential end of the Russian Federation

Thought provoking analysis, thanks for posting it.

You're welcome. There's no moss growing on Bed Hodges, that's for sure. He was much admired and respected on active duty too.

Very grounded and foresight-ful article. I hope there is wisdom enough for leaders to follow it.

I wonder if a Russian Marshall Plan is in order!

Bed Hodges

Ben Hodges. Apologies for the unfortunate typo. 😉

That will be nice, but Ukraine first

⚡️ State Border Guard Service: Teenagers rescued from Russian captivity in Kharkiv Oblast.
The State Border Guard Service said it rescued five teenagers, aged 15 to 17, in recently-liberated Kupiansk who were locked in a basement for seven days by Russian troops.

⚡️ Governor: Military administrations to be established in every municipality of Luhansk Oblast. [many admins cooperated with Russia, so the Ukrainian govt wants to replace them]

⚡️ SBU identifies collaborators, heads of Russian occupying forces in Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️City council reports protests in Russian-occupied Mariupol due to lack of electricity, water supply.
According to the Mariupol City Council, some of the local residents say they haven't had electricity or water supply for over two months. They protested to demand from the occupying forces to resolve these issues ahead of the winter, the council reported on Sept. 15

⚡️Russia threatens US 'to react' if it provides Ukraine with long-range weapons.
According to the Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Sept. 15 that if the U.S. provides long-range missiles to Ukraine, it will make them a “party to the conflict,” and Russia will respond to it. [oh aye, here we come again with the threats]

⚡️Ukraine reports 'destroying' Russian military base in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast.

⚡️Governor: Fleeing Russian troops ruined energy facility, leaving 5,000 residents of Balakliia, Kharkiv Oblast, without gas.

⚡️Bild: Germany to provide Ukraine with 50 Dingo armored vehicles.

⚡️US imposes new sanctions against Kadyrov, Russian official involved in deportation of Ukrainian children. The U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against two entities and 22 individuals involved in Russian aggression against Ukraine.
These include Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov and his family, as well as Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s presidential commissioner for children’s rights.
Lvova-Belova has “led Russia’s efforts to deport thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia," the Treasury Department said.

🎪 Russia does not recognize its passports, which were issued in the territory of the self-proclaimed "DPR" and "LPR”
Passport holders are not allowed across the border, reports to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.

🗣 Ukrainian hackers claimed responsibility for the breakdown of the official website of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which showed its helplessness during the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh [this is the Ru- headed organisation which Armenia appealed to two days ago to take action in the Armenia-Azerbijan conflict]

⚡️ The assets of Russians, worth €189 million, were arrested in Finland

🔥 The building of the Russian customs on the border of Ukraine and Russia is on fire [mm shame]

Russia threatens US 'to react' if it provides Ukraine with long-range weapons.
According to the Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Sept. 15 that if the U.S. provides long-range missiles to Ukraine, it will make them a “party to the conflict,” and Russia will respond to it. [oh aye, here we come again with the threats]

They said the same thing about supplying Ukraine with HIMARS. So far, we see no attempt to invade Alaska in retaliation.

‘State Border Guard Service: Teenagers rescued from Russian captivity in Kharkiv Oblast.
The State Border Guard Service said it rescued five teenagers, aged 15 to 17, in recently-liberated Kupiansk who were locked in a basement for seven days by Russian troops.’

Bastards.
The number of war crimes that will be revealed is going to be staggering.
These poor kids. They should just have things to worry about like their exams and video game scores like my teenagers.

@MissConductUS · Today 16:01
Here's some interesting speculation on how a variety of factors could interact to cause the disintegration of the Russian federation. It's from Bed Hodges, a retired US Army LT GEN who previously commanded the US Army Europe. He has a very good point about the economic consequences of losing energy and arms export markets.
russiavsworld.org/prepare-for-russia-itself-to-disintegrate/

Thank you for that very interesting article.
The possible disintegration of the Russian Federation is not something that occurred to me.

How odd it is to realise that though Russia has 70 times the landmass of the U.K. it has only twice the population.

Russia falling apart was something I saw being discussed a lot actually. Some people went as far as trying to predict where (geographically) the divide would happen. Twitter was full of these speculations.

Kamil Galeev was talking about it too, although he said economic separation would come first, political much later, but he didn't give any time frames.

Russia is the last empire in Europe, and all empires fall apart eventually. It's inevitable really.

If reports are to be trusted, a mass grave (c25 Ukrainian soldiers) has been found in Izyum. There are also about 500 new graves, mostly of local residents, in the local cemetery, including family groups.

I found the news here
liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-september-a-large-mass-grave-of-ukrainian-soldiers-and
which seems to be sourced to here:
novynarnia.com/2022/09/15/eksgumacziya-izium/
which I fed into Google Translate.

I suspect that there is more of this to come.

I think they are saying 1000 dead in Izyum alone.

Given it was the site of intensive fighting, its not necessarily a surprise. Its not necessarily the result of occupation in the same way as Bucha.

I think we will see death tolls get progressively worse.

BBC Russia is saying at least 440 bodies, both military and civilians.

@OwlsDance · Today 22:26
BBC Russia is saying at least 440 bodies, both military and civilians

I saw that too.

There was also a very sad thing shown of an old man crying for his son who has just been killed by a collaborator, after the Russians withdrew.

Thread on Xi-Putin statements after their joint meeting. China silent on Ukraine: twitter.com/shilinabolan/status/1570530550083125248?s=46&t=O9pQnRGKIFdFaznKU5a8Vg

What is clear is how junior Russia is in this partnership and also that Xi has power over Putin in terms of using him as a mouth piece for Chinese interests AND schooling him about Russia's own position vis a vis Asia