Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

Armenia-Azerbaijan has relevance to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and is, of course, also it’s own drawn out tragedy. Like Serbia-Kosovo and the other conflicts in former Yugoslavia they are countries with long-standing issues, messily located and sometimes intertwined peoples, and such a weight of history. Perhaps the SU kept a lid on things.

Azerbaijan is a Turkic state and therefore Turkey is a friend, as big brother in the Turk-tent and also drone technology-wise. Israel is also a chum for reasons in a post this length best left as ‘it’s complicated’. However, we can’t avoid noticing that Azerbaijani ethnicity bleeds across the border into Iran. Armenia, despite the extensive diaspora, is short of mates, apart from Russia. Armenia was the first realm to adopt Christianity and the church is distinctive. Linguistically it’s like none of its neighbours, or anywhere else really. It’s landlocked, mountainous, and most of the territory that might have formed its post-Versailles but never was state is in Turkey and cleared of Armenians in Ottoman end game genocide.

The wars post SU breakup always ended in ceasefires with Armenia hanging on to most of the Nagorno Karabakh enclave in Azerbaijan plus some extra land to access it. That was until the last one where, aided by drones, the Azerbaijanis turned the tables. It was the first big decisive drone war. Now the protective Russian cat’s away (and has its claws pulled) the Azerbaijan forces probably have the Armenians on the ropes again.

I had a university friend who loved talking about Armenian culture, as it exists in the small mountain state and in the diaspora. She also shared a name with a nightmare reality TV family and spent a lot of time denying any links with them.

Classic ethno-linguistic map showing, among others, Armenians and Azerbaijanis. There will have been some population movements.

The Armenians of S Central Georgia have been significantly Georgianised. NK is more or less the Armenian area in Azerbaijan. Nakhichevan is the Azerbaijan exclave beyond a thin southern drumstick of Armenia (apparently Azeri but met someone from there who said he was a Kurd). White areas lake or mountain.

Thanks for the continuing updates. Just saw on the news that the Russian ambassador will be attending the queen’s funeral. How inappropriate?!

@MMBaranova thanks for the explanation on Armenia-Azerbaijan. It seems almost like Russia are the good guy is in supporting Armenia who had no other protectors in the region but it is probably not at all black and white. We all know about the Russian invasion of Ukraine but I wonder how many other ethnic conflicts like in Armenia-Azerbaijan are occurring in the world that go unnoticed by me.

Reports this morning about Melitopol.

According to the exiled mayor large numbers of Russians have been fleeing the city. If you remember Melitopol was one of the first cities to fall having put up a fight (unlike a few places where the Ukrainians were either caught off guard or allowed the Russians in). They have been taking the cars of locals and filling them with loot before heading to northern Crimea according to these reports.

Anyway its being stressed this is so far unconfirmed. Some are saying this is merely psyops and I think there is something to be said for this.

I think this comment is possibly closer to the truth:
Michael McKay at mhmck
It is likely that the convoy moving out of Melitopol' consists of families of Russian occupiers and local collaborators. This happened some time ago from Tokmak. Now the exodus has spread south.

We will soon see more invaders and colonists fleeing Crimea as panic spreads.

If either is true its fairly significant. It shows the level of fear from the Russians over the speed of the Ukrainian offensive.

Its important to look at the map in the context of these reports too. And to put into the context of reports a couple of days ago of Russian convoys being seen heading towards Mariupol.

If Ukraine are in anyway likely to get close to Melitopol, its a massive deal. Not only is that a huge amount of the country liberated. Its also strategically significant. It puts them at a position where the bridge into Crimea is in spitting distance. That really would be when panic might start to set in amongst Russians.

And if the Russians are racing to Mariupol, you do have to ask why. Why do they need to consider defending a city on the coast so heavily if the rest of the south is well defended and they have good lines of defence? The distances we are talking about don't match with Russian forces thinking they can hold ground if any of this is true...

But yes it could very well be psyops, but they are made more powerful due to actual Ukrainian gains...

And if the Russians are racing to Mariupol, you do have to ask why. Why do they need to consider defending a city on the coast so heavily if the rest of the south is well defended and they have good lines of defence? The distances we are talking about don't match with Russian forces thinking they can hold ground if any of this is true...

They are either going to defend it, or use it as the way out... a kind of Dunkirk?

Quite.

Both hold significant risks for Ukraine which shouldn't be forgotten.

Ukraine should pause soon just to rest troops as they can't continue an offensive too far and fast cos of logistics and human fatigue.

A lot of info today

ISW Key Takeaways

The Kremlin has recognized its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first defeat Russia has acknowledged in this war. The Kremlin is deflecting blame from Russian President Vladimir Putin and attributing it instead to his military advisors.

The Kremlin is likely seeking to use the defeat in Kharkiv to facilitate crypto mobilization efforts by intensifying patriotic rhetoric and discussions about fuller mobilization while revisiting a Russian State Duma bill allowing the military to send call-ups for the regular semiannual conscription by mail. Nothing in the Duma bill suggests that Putin is preparing to order general mobilization, and it is far from clear that he could do so quickly in any case.

The successful Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kharkiv Oblast is prompting Russian servicemen, occupation authorities, and milbloggers to panic.

Russia’s military failures in Ukraine are likely continuing to weaken Russia’s leverage in the former Soviet Union as Russia appears unwilling to enforce a violated ceasefire it brokered between Armenia and Azerbaijan or to allow Armenia to invoke provisions of the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization in its defense.

Ukrainian troops likely continued ground attacks along the Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line in northern Donetsk Oblast and may be conducting limited ground attacks across the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian and Ukrainian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces are continuing ground maneuvers in three areas of Kherson Oblast as part of the ongoing southern counter-offensive.

Russian troops made incremental gains south of Bakhmut and continued ground attacks throughout Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces provided the first visual evidence of Russian forces using an Iranian-made drone in Ukraine on September 13.

Extra: [a summary saying that there are no signs of full mobilization, and if Putin did, there would be overwhelming problems of training and weopons and mil hardware, which indicates that it basically won't work at all well]

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Zelenskyy: The first yet crucially important step towards future security guarantees for Ukraine has been taken. During our meeting, Andriy Yermak and former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen presented the elaborated recommendations, which should become the basis of the Kyiv Security Compact.

Ukraine's guarantors are expected to include the US, the UK, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey and other countries.

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⚡️ Ukrainian intelligence: Russia preparing new shelling of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, danger to other nuclear facilities remains high.

⚡️ Podolyak: Ukraine needs more air defense to protect critical infrastructure from Russia.

⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families

⚡️The Guardian: EU unlikely to cap price of Russian gas.

⚡️Mayor: Explosions heard at Russian military base in Melitopol.

⚡️Financial Times: US, allies discuss providing Ukraine with fighter aircraft.
The U.S. and its allies have been discussing Ukraine’s longer-term needs, such as air defenses, and “whether it might be appropriate” to provide Ukraine with fighter aircraft in the “medium to longer-term” perspective, the Financial Times reported, citing an anonymous senior U.S. defense official.

⚡️Official: Ukrainian forces have liberated over 300 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast since Sept. 6.

⚡️Zelensky: IMF allocates additional $1.4 billion to support Ukraine.

⚡️Court sentences Russian collaborator to 12 years in jail.

⚡️German government: Scholz told Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine.

⚡️CNN: Blinken concerned Russia might 'stir the pot' with Armenia, Azerbaijan as a distraction from Ukraine.

⚡️Government approves draft budget for 2023, 50% of expenditures on defense, security. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that the draft budget's expenditures on security and defense are four times bigger compared to the previous year, amounting to Hr 1.136 trillion ($30.7 billion). The deficit is set at over $3 billion per month.

⚡️Police finds Russian 'torture chambers' in liberated Balakliia. .... According to Bolvinov, Russians were searching for Ukrainian war veterans and volunteers who helped the Ukrainian army.

⚡️CNN: Pentagon has seen 'a number of Russian forces' cross back into Russia in Kharkiv Oblast....But Russian forces still “do exist en masse in Ukraine,” Ryder said.

⚡️Mayor: Russian forces retreating from occupied Melitopol to Crimea.

⚡️IAEA: Ukrainian engineers repair vital power infrastructure near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, access was renewed to another, third back-up power line to the Zaporizhzhia plant in the Russian-occupied city of Enerhodar. All of the plant's six reactors remain in a cold shutdown state, but they still require power to maintain necessary safety functions, the IAEA reported on Sept. 13.

⚡️Government expects Ukraine’s GDP to rise by 4.6% in 2023

⚡️Deputy PM: Russia asked Ukraine for negotiations amid counteroffensive.
Deputy Prime Minister for European integration Olga Stefanishyna told France24 that Russian officials had reached out to Ukraine to negotiate in recent days, a move she believes is aimed at stopping the rapid Ukrainian advance.
Stefanishyna said that Ukraine would only talk with Russia when it reaches its military goals.

⚡️CNN: US officials say Russia has spent over $300 million on influencing foreign elections since 2014.
Citing a review by the U.S. intelligence community, a senior U.S. official told CNN that “Russia has covertly transferred over $300 million dollars, and planned to covertly transfer at least hundreds of millions more” to influence foreign political parties in over 20 countries across four continents.
The official said Russia transferred the money “to advantage specific political parties and undermine democracy.”
The review was ordered by the U.S. government earlier this summer.

⚡️Ukraine’s military strikes Kakhovka bridge in Kherson again, halting Russian forces' repairs.

⚡️Russian forces damage 252 cultural institutions in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Russia-led military alliance holds meeting to discuss renewed clashes between Azerbaijan, Armenia. During the meeting, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said Russia will take “additional steps” to “de-escalate the situation” without providing details of what the response will be.
Earlier on Sept. 13, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan spoke with Putin and requested military assistance from the CSTO.

⚡️ General Staff: Ukraine's military repels 8 Russian attacks in past 24 hours.

⚡️White House: US may provide Ukraine with an additional security assistance package 'in coming days.' Since the start of Russia's full-scale war in February, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with $15.2 billion in military aid.

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📢 Russians in the temporarily occupied territories of the Luhansk region received only 2,400 applications for compensation for housing and property lost as a result of hostilities, according to the head of the Regional Military Administration Serhiy Gaidai
Despite the fact that most of the residential buildings in the villages of Rubizhne, Popasna, Sievierodonetsk, and Hirske were destroyed, other local residents were found the reasons to refuse.
“The occupiers also have significant problems keeping their promises. The population has been waiting for the payment of pensions for several months, and other payments have not begun,” writes Gaidai

✅ The first humanitarian cargoes went to the liberated settlements of the Kharkiv region [no gas and no electricity = big problems for the people]

⚡️ Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Denmark, Belgium, and the Netherlands no longer accept documents for tourist visas from Russians

📈 In the Kharkiv region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine captured a significant number of Russian invaders – Die Welt
In general, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have captured thousands of Russian soldiers in recent days, including high-ranking officers [if thousands of soldiers have been taken POW, I wonder just what the removed-from-combat stats for the Russian army are now? Dead, severely wounded or taken POW. It can't be insignificant]

❌ The armed forces shot down an Iranian Shahed-136 strike UAV for the first time
An Iranian strike UAV was spotted in the Kupyansk area, which was probably used by Russian invaders.

💪 The Armed Forces of Ukraine defeated the elite Russian army, which was trained to defend Moscow and the war with NATO [the 1st Guards Tank Army.]

📍 The Ukrainian military liberated Bohorodychne in the Donetsk region. In the village, the defenders found the bodies of killed civilians and the decapitated bodies of the Ukrainian military [savages. Just savages]

📌 The leader of the Hamas terrorist organization Ismail Haniyeh met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to discuss the relationship. The Embassy of Ukraine in Israel has already responded to this visit

⛔️ Representatives of Russia, Belarus, and Myanmar were not invited to the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Sky News reports, citing sources in the British government

💶 There is no money in the EU budget for Ukraine for 2023
"The real question is how to finance Ukraine in the event – and this is very likely – that the war continues next year," said Johannes Hahn, European Commissioner for Budget and Administration.

❗️Russia has committed more than 40,000 war crimes in Ukraine — Andrii Smyrnov, deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine

⚠️ Teachers in seized Mariupol tell first-graders that the city is part of the Russian Federation, and they assign them to study the Russian anthem at home, said Petro Andriushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol.

During the 15 days of the counteroffensive, our soldiers captured more than 300 units of enemy equipment, and that's just according to the confirmed data.

🔗 High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, urged the countries of the Union to double military aid to Ukraine — Deutsche Welle

🇺🇦🇩🇰 Ukraine has accepted Denmark's offer to train Ukrainian soldiers on Danish soil. The Minister of Defence of Denmark, Morten Bødskov, announced this during his visit to Kyiv

📲 The Russian military has turned off mobile Internet in the captured territories of the Luhansk region amid a counterattack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a number of areas

⚡️ The Head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that Ukraine would join the EU roaming zones [what's an EU roaming zone? sounds more like a mobile network thing!]

⚡️European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to visit Kyiv.

🏦 Bank of America is moving some of its Russian employees to Dubai, UAE — Reuters
The United Arab Emirates, which has been deepening its ties with Russia for years, has not supported sanctions imposed by Western countries, and its central bank has yet to issue guidance on Western sanctions.

[There is a rumour, unconfirmed, that Putin was driving in his back-up cavalcade and there was a planned assassination attempt on it. Unfortunately, it wasn't successful]

4 more aircraft lost but otherwise much quieter. As @RedToothBrush and others have said, the Ukrainian forces need a rest.

the Ukrainian forces need a rest

Risk vs. benefit of halting advance..

Need to reduce fatigue, logistics can be sorted out, replenishment, vs. Do you give the Russians time to dig in, regain some sort of order whilst static?

Personally I'd be thinking keep the *** on the run, if you can.

Chinese expression of support for Russia (not a surprise): twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1569945395903725568?s=46&t=wf8w2HcA5sh73gMek9DN7A

And attached: rumour going around Twitter that could be rubbish, completely unverifiable but interesting nevertheless

Yes, also while there are always going to be limits to what even the most motivated soldiers can handle I imagine the energy in the Ukraine ranks right now is sky high compared with the Russians.

Almost 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers have undergone training in Great Britain

Well done, Britain! As I recall, there were reports of these troops showing up in the east a few weeks ago, replacing Ukrainian territorial defense forces. This was not good news for the Russians.

The website appears to be down or swamped with traffic, but there is a report that the Russian Navy is withdrawing Kilo class submarines from Crimea.

www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xdvuu3/russian_navy_kilo_class_submarines_retreating/

These are diesel-electric boats, not nuclear powered, but they are quite capable and are one of the platforms being used to launch missiles at targets in Ukraine. The Russian Navy must be quite concerned about their security in Crimea.

Ukraine hasn't quite paused yet, but due to geography they had to slow down - there's a few rivers to cross so it won't be as fast. They do need to make sure they don't overstretch themselves.

I agree with the sentiment, but this decision is an art, not a science. I think it will depend heavily on how many casualties they've taken and the logistics tail for essential supplies like fuel and ammunition.

I saw some photos of the UAF using American humvees during the "thunder runs" from village to village in the Kharkiv offensive. One advantage to vehicles like this is that they can use local motor gasoline supplies.

⚡️Luhansk Oblast Governor: Russian troops return to occupied Kreminna

⚡️ Shmyhal: Ukraine considers abolishing mandatory military service.

📌 Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, believes that the IAEA’s visit to the Zaporizhzhia NPP seized by the Russians did not bring the desired results: the world underestimates the nuclear terrorist threat of the Russian Federation

⬇️ The EU wants to cut funding for Hungary
The official reason is corruption in the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The unofficial reason is the close and ardent relationship between Orbán and Putin.
Hungary has become the first European Union country to be investigated under the new rules. They allow the punishment of EU countries that undermine the financial interests of the bloc. A special commission has been examining Orbán's activities while in power for several months.

About the bloody time re Hungary

What do those percentages mean please?

Sorry, I don't quite get what you mean - about Hungary? which percentages?

The percentages on the map i the attached image?
I think it means the % of the district held by Russia, but happy to be corrected.

Doh, of course!

Yes, @EdithStourton is right. so Crimea is 100% held, Mykolaiv Oblast has only 4% of its land occupied.

@notimagain , here's some interesting coverage on the participation of Russia's long-range bomber force in the war.

Russia’s Secretive Long-Range Bomber Operations Against Ukraine - An in-depth look at the obscured role played by Russia’s missile-armed long-range bomber triad in the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Their role has been limited to launching cruise missiles from stand-off distances outside the range of Ukrainian air defenses. The Russians have limited stocks of such missiles, so it may not continue much longer. So the bus drivers may be able to return to the barracks soon.

Russia have destroyed a dam near Kryvyi Rih on the Ingulets River. Early reports suggest the river has risen 5 metres.

Implications:

Defmon at defmon3
This seems rather inconvenient for anyone having a pontoon bridge over the Ingulets river. That would be both sides.

What we will see is this, UA might be stuck at the Davydiv Brid bridgehead. But it's also possible it will wash away any bridge over the Ingulets river used by the russians.

This is what it looks like further up just above the dam gates. There are clear signs of explosions, this is a result of the russian missile attack.
They have absolutely no regard for the safety of civilians. They are terrorists.

The same telegram channel says they might try to divert some water in to the quarries.

Thanks, I'll read through that later..

I think there were suggestions early on that it would be possible for some of their cruise missile carriers to take-off from somewhere like Engels 2 at Saratov , get the gear and flaps up, pop off a cruise missile in the direction of Ukraine and then be back home for tea, all within a matter of minutes..............................

Apologies if this seems a bit woo...

Ukrainian astronomers claim UFOs ‘everywhere’ over Kyiv

You might recall that in 2020 the US DoD declassified some rather startling video footage of UFOs. They are commonly seen in areas with high levels of military activity.

'UFO' videos declassified by US Navy

@MissConductUS how weird. Hope our 'guests' are just observing the fireworks. Will be a neat weapon to have if we could harness their technology.

Thanks for the link to the Russian long range bombers. Interesting read. I have to say the bomber planes look sleek but deadly. I guess those Russians were firing stuff from afar. Kinzhals & Kalibrs.