Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

The head of the military regional administration Serhiy Haidai is reported to have said Russians who have occupied cities in Luhansk since 2014 have started to leave en masse.

There isn't a way to verify this, and this may well be propaganda to encourage Russians to leave by creating a panic amongst Russians.

This is an explanation of why the Ukrainians have advanced so fast from a Ukrainian strategist:
euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/11/ukraines-counteroffensive-near-kharkiv-what-made-the-blitzkrieg-possible/

The defense was broken so quickly most likely because the Russians lacked forces. The front is more than 1300 km long, and the Russians have 200,000-250,000 troops. This is decisively insufficient to create a serious tiered defense. Most likely, they only had one tier of defense to the north of Balakliia and the Russians’ defense forces mainly consisted of SOBR rapid-response teams that are not specialized in general warfare but in suppressing protest actions.

Russia had only one line of defense, Ukraine broke through it and then introduced its breakthrough development echelon that did not enter the cities but went in the direction of Volokhiv Yar, Shevchenkove, Kupiansk, and basically started to cut off communications.

In answer to whether Ukraine can hold the gains, you have to consider the nature of the public and the occupation.

The Russians took months to take settlements, and lost a lot of lives doing so. They couldn't just bypass settlements in the same way as Ukrainians. They had to suppress a hostile population.

The Ukrainians don't have such limitations.

Once Russians are cut off they have a major problem. They can't just cross the front line. They either fight their way out or they surrender. Cut off from communication fighting a war you don't really believe in as an occuping force isn't a recipe for strong resistance.

The article goes on to explain that in the South the Russians created a tiered line of defense and how they in effect have 1million soliders available - they aren't all front line - but as we have seen logistics matter and having that strength away from the front also matters. We know that the Ukrainians might be outnumbered in places at the front but this isn't the full story. Especially when it comes to dealing with retaking occupied areas.

When you start to consider the implications of this, it looks more favourable for Ukraine.

You have to consider what the Russians would need to retake ground. Even if the Ukrainians are also thinly spread, the challenges are significantly different for both armies. The Ukrainians don’t have to consider the risk of internal sabotage of supply line in the same way for starters.

Oliver Carroll AT olliecarroll

^^

That's a relief

Navalny has very similar nationalistic views to Putin. He supported conflict in Georgia, and while he criticized annexation of Crimea, he would have been OK with it had Russia done a proper referendum.

A lot of people think of him as a Knight in shining armour who will transform Russia, but Russia needs a regime transformation first. Otherwise he'll just become another Putin, but now with an aura of martyrdom around him.

The fight is on the Russian border, but anywhere in the Ukraine, deploying nuclear is high risk and a very blunt weapon with uncontrollable consequences depending on the wind direction. That’s not Putin (hopefully).

Threatening use of such weapons is part of psychological warfare, which is very much Putin. But even if they lose physical territory, there’s a good chance he’ll carry on using Wagner Group, direct targeting of Ukrainian officials in the lost regions with all the tricks he’s used before, and create as much damage and chaos as possible. Who knows what other tricks he’d use. He’s petty like that.

Hopefully, regular soldiers will decide that they’d rather not die for a lost cause and start to melt away while they can.

Sorry that ollie Carroll tweet got zapped by mn.

It read:
Ukraine’s Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai cock-a-hoop at progress army is making locally. “The occupant is running.” He says expects good news soon fm Svatove, Kreminna, Rubizhne, areas Russia took weeks to capture this year. Remarkably says enemy running from areas seized in 2014

Something else to reflect on. By all accounts the Ukrainian army is mainly 'infantry transports (HMMWVs, pick ups), scout. dune buggies FASTVs, and backed up by MRAPS, BTRs... with tanks attached'

This contrasts with the Russians who are mainly more heavy arms with fewer infantry in the battle groups.

Take out the tanks with HIMARS and what's left? How do you defend against an enemy who are trying to move fast and are cutting off your communication?

The Ukrainians can just overwhelm in this way at speed. The Russians don't have many options left to hold the line in this scenario with a front line which doesn't have a second line of defence.

There was already a case of one motorised rifle division in Kherson region who just left their positions. Just up and left without saying anything to anyone. Let's just hope there's more cases of this in the coming weeks.

Agreed, genuine regime change and also a change of national mindset is a heck of a long way off.

TBH I think the probably best the west can hope for is that the Russian armed Forces are degraded to such an extent that, regardless of national leadership, they will not pose a credible conventional threat to any of Russia's neighbours for a decade or more....we are not there yet but the signs are promising.

That still leaves the threat of Russia having nuclear weapons but we will have to find a way of living with that.

If I was a clever Russian soldier, I’d definitely leave whilst still outside of Russia. Maybe try to get to another country and start over again.

Yeah, I'd be looking at dinghies if I was in Kherson...

Agreed on all points. The ingredients are not currently there for Russia to be anything other than cowed into resentful submission at best. Putin has done a good job over the past two decades in that respect. That professor on the Julia Davis propagandist highlights reel the other day made a good point when he said there is actually a risk of unrest because of the Russian people feeling the war is a just one that has been badly executed, ie their problem isn't with invading their neighbour it's with not having done it well enough.

And the nukes issue... is what it is. Frankly I wouldn't trust that most of them actually work anyway, but I suppose they only need one.

Agreed, genuine regime change and also a change of national mindset is a heck of a long way off.

I think the mindset is key to all this. It will be incredibly hard to change.

After Putin is no long around, to begin to change the mindset would be extensive and years-long public campaigns to care for their neighbours via TV, radio and billboard. To think not only what benefits you, but them. Campaigns against corruption, and to be proud of Mother Russia but to improve our own country's care for itself.

Plus emphasising this in teacher training for the youngest children and keep it going.

It sounds silly but advertising campaigns do work and someone I was chatting to in Poland was saying that there was a huge, 2-decade long campaign there against corruption and while things aren't perfect they are certainly better than they were.

From what I've read Navalny is something of a nasty piece of work himself in some areas. If things go badly against Putin though, you could imagine him giving orders for Navalny to have an 'accident'. "If I'm going, so is he".

The motorized rifle division - do they know where they ended up? :)

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv Oblast are collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis, and Ukrainian forces will likely recapture Izyum itself in the next 48 hours.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of troops from the Balakliya-Izyum line on September 10, and the Russian MoD’s failure to set effective information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space.

The withdrawal announcement and occupation authorities’ failure to organize evacuation measures is further alienating the Russian milblogger and Russian nationalist communities that support the Kremlin’s grandiose vision of capturing the entirety of Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces reached positions within 15–25km of the Russo-Ukrainian border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Izyum’s northern outskirts, and Lyman’s south and southwestern outskirts, and captured the western half of Kupyansk.

Russian forces are reinforcing frontline positions in Kherson Oblast while Ukrainian forces conduct positional battles and continue their interdiction campaign against Russian logistics lines.

Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv City, south of Bakhmut, and west of Donetsk City.

Russian recruitment drives are generating some criticism among Russian milbloggers and regions.

Russian forces are reportedly intensifying filtration measures in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensives on the Southern Axis.

extra: Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.

(the ISW seems to be behind the times, it's moving so fast - Izyum is freed!]

Zelensky: 90 days ahead will be more crucial for Ukraine than past 30 years of independence (kyivindependent.com/national/zelensky-90-days-ahead-will-be-more-crucial-for-ukraine-than-past-30-years-of-independence)

⚡️Scholz: Germany prepared to face coming winter without Russian gas.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany is ready to weather the winter season if Russia decides to halt gas exports.
Scholz said terminals have been prepared in northern Germany to import liquid gas, coal-powered plants are operating, and nuclear power plants in the south will be ready by early 2023, if necessary.

⚡️Kuleba: Kharkiv counteroffensive shows Ukraine can defeat Russia, but more weapons needed.

⚡️Water and electricity were restored to Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhia Oblast for citizens

⚡️Nuland says 'no interest' in President Biden meeting Putin at G20 summit

⚡️Ukrainian forces destroy Russian ammunition depots and ferry crossing in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️ Energoatom: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant’s last reactor shuts down.
The plant’s sixth and last functioning reactor was disconnected from the national grid in the early morning of Sept. 11, reported Ukraine’s state nuclear operator Energoatom.
The sixth reactor was operating on “island mode” for the past three days, maintaining only its own needs, after Russian shelling damaged power lines.
The restoration of a power line means "preparations are underway for its cooling and transfer to a cold state,” reportedly the "safest state."

⚡️ Intelligence: Russia plans to again shell Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
Russian forces are allegedly planning another attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the neighboring city of Enerhodar, says Ukraine’s Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate.
According to the Directorate, Russian forces were ordered to take shelter at 2:00 p.m.

❌ Air Moldova has been banned by Aviation regulator from resuming flights to Moscow, — Newsmaker [they had be planning to start flights there again]

📍 The Bars group of Intelligence company of the 25th Airborne Brigade has captured a Lieutenant-Colonel of the 18th motor rifle division of the Russian Federation Artem Khelemendik

📌 General Staff: Due to heavy losses, the Russians are planning to conduct forced mobilization in the occupied territories. Men are now forbidden to leave occupied settlements.

🤝 Germany will keep providing military assistance to Ukraine, including arms supply, according to the German Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock [shame Scholz is blocking so much, eh? Wish Baerbock was in charge]

🔗 The New York Times: While preparing a counteroffensive, Ukrainian authorities decided to share information with the United States to gain more support

Before that, U.S. intelligence officials complained that they had much more information about Russian military plans than about Ukrainian ones [LOL!]

400 personnel lost and no less than ~3~ planes + 1 helicopter.

There was also a ref from somewhere to about 200,000 - 250,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine now. Still a hell of a lot, though many seem to be poorly trained and equipped. Still there are some motivated and well trained and well equipped groups.

Most of them are trapped on the right bank of Dniepr. Some are around Melitopol area.

oh I don't know where that rifle division go. But apparently they just left their positions, without saying anything to their "neighbours". This was in CIT report, and they are very reliable

where it went*

MN is being weird for me to today, very slow

Reports that the Russians have retreated from Kharkiv oblast.

Yeah, there's something very strange with the ISW site for a few days now. It's extremely slow to load and often won't.

Retreat?

Is that orderly or a panicked run to the border like they did around Kyiv?

I dunno, hopefully we'll find out soon.

Kadyrov posted a weird 11 minute ramble on his telegram lastnight. Here's some quotes:

"If no changes are made in carrying out the special military operation today or tomorrow, I will have to address the government of the country, to explain the situation on the ground. [The situation] is very interesting, awesome I would say.

I, Ramzan Kadyrov, am making an official statement, that all these towns will be returned. Our guys are already there. Another 10 thousand fighters are ready to leave [for the front line].

In the nearest future we will reach Odessa, you will see specific results.

I'm not a strategist, like Ministry of Defence. But mistakes were made. I think they will reach some conclusions. When you tell truth to someone's face, some might not like it. But I like to speak the truth. We have spoken to commanders on the front line.

I know one thing. Russia will win. NATO weapons will be crushed with the spirit of our fighters. Arms and legs are already shaking in a wake of our arrival."

And the ferris wheel that Putin opened yesterday in Moscow doesn't work today.

There were a lot of criticism from pro-war people yesterday for him not addressing the spectacular defeat of Russian army, and attending to trivial matters, like a ferris wheel, and for not cancelling the fireworks.

This is a funny one

twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1568940220053069824?t=M4hDNUmA3UoNZenSz35cDw&s=19