Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

The NY Times is reporting that the Pentagon provided a lot of intelligence data to the Ukrainians and assisted with the planning for the current offensive.

euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/11/ukrainian-officials-drew-on-u-s-intelligence-to-plan-counteroffensive-nyt/

This agrees with another report that said the Pentagon war gamed various options with the Ukrainians. Sorry I can't c&p the full article, it's behind a paywall and I've already used my limit of free articles.

There was also a ref from somewhere to about 200,000 - 250,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine now. Still a hell of a lot, though many seem to be poorly trained and equipped. Still there are some motivated and well trained and well equipped groups.

I think that number also includes paramilitary riot police that have been brought in to terrorize civilians in occupied areas. They would not be useful in a real fight.

This one made me chuckle:

twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1568863871997452288

Rumours that Russian troops in Kherson are negotiating surrender, but getting shot at by Chechens.

This is ~not~ confirmed.

I thought that was very significant. People on twitter were saying the implication is that he thinks/is saying Putin's not being fully advised of how bad the situation is.

Russian MOD issued a map where they actually indicated that Russian troops withdrew from far bigger territory than Ukraine claimed. They are gone from most of Kharkiv bar a narrow strip east of river Oskol.

CIT analysts think this will be the line that UA troops stop as it's a natural physical barrier (the river). They don't want to repeat Ru disastrous pontoon crossing fiasco.

This tweet by Zelensky referencing 9/11 was very astute politically. As someone who was in NYC that day, it certainly struck a chord with me. I have no doubt he was sincere.

twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1568917883836661762

CIT analysts think this will be the line that UA troops stop as it's a natural physical barrier (the river). They don't want to repeat Ru disastrous pontoon crossing fiasco.

I think it's also that the Russians understand that leaving part of their force on the wrong side of the river means that they will have to surrender to the Ukrainians.

@MissConductUS yes, let's hope that understanding leads to their surrender.

Navalny is a very brave man. His anti-corruption investigations have been revelatory, and he was ahead of the pack in the use of digital platforms.

His Russian Nationalism is clear and at times uncomfortable.

He doesn't have much support. What support he has had has of course been suppressed, but in a freer system I doubt that he would be much of a contender.

Navalny is best thought of as a fearless and sometimes reckless investigator than someone who should be in power.

Zelenskiy has said this on the Russian retaliatory attacks on the Ukrainian power system:

A total blackout in the Kharkiv & Donetsk regions, a partial one in the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk & Sumy regions. RF terrorists remain terrorists & attack critical infrastructure. No military facilities, the goal is to deprive people of light & heat.

He went further. See image.

he is absolutely inspiring isn't he? the hair on the back of my neck stirred when I read that.

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive

Ukrainian authorities shut down the last active reactor at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on September 11.

The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that Russian forces are withdrawing from positions throughout all but easternmost Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian milbloggers have defined the Oskil River that runs from Kupyansk to Izyum as the new frontline following Russian withdrawal from positions in eastern Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukrainian forces have advanced into Vovchansk and Velykyi Burluk, just south of the international border.

Ukrainian forces continue to fight positional battles and conduct strikes on Russian military, logistics, and transportation assets along the Southern Axis.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Avdiivka and Bakhmut areas.

Russian authorities are continuing to pull combat power from various external sources to support operations in Ukraine and are struggling to compensate volunteers.

The success of recent Ukrainian counteroffensives likely contributed to the Russian announcement that annexation referenda will be indefinitely postponed.

Extra: The current counter-offensive will not end the war. The campaign in northeast Ukraine will eventually culminate, allowing the Russians to re-establish a tenable defensive line and possibly even conduct localized counterattacks. Ukraine will have to launch subsequent counter-offensive operations, likely several, to finish the liberation of Russian-occupied territory. The war remains likely to stretch into 2023.

But: Ukraine has turned the tide of this war in its favor.

The ISW made some unusually scathing remarks about Russia's performance.

+++

🔎 For some reason, Russians advise collaborators to flee to Russia

⚡️ The Armed Forces of Ukraine have reached the state border with the Russian Federation in the north of the Kharkiv region

On the evening of September 11, shelling damaged infrastructure facilities, resulting in power outages in a number of regions.
Attacks on critical infrastructure that have nothing to do with the army are a direct, undisguised act of genocide. Violation of the rules and customs of war occurs on the air without any justification.

⚡️Governor: Electricity supply fully restored in Sumy Oblast.

⚡️Train delays reported due to power outages caused by Russian strikes.

📚 Despite the war, Ukrainian children are going back to school. And now they're learning not just language or math but how to behave in a shelter and what an air raid siren means. And remember it all by doing fun exercises.

👥 Eric Schmidt, an American billionaire and former CEO and head of the Google board, came to Ukraine. As part of his visit, he met with Minister of Defence of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov and Head of the Office of the President Andrii Yermak.
They reportedly talked about technological solutions that could help Ukraine accelerate the de-occupation of territories, restore its territorial integrity and return to a safe, peaceful life.

📍 Russia offered India a discount on oil
“To do this, New Delhi must withdraw its support for the initiative of the G7 countries to set a cap on oil prices,” writes the Indian newspaper Business Standard, citing unnamed officials and the Indian Foreign Ministry. [oooh, manipulation and blackmail from Russia. Who could have guessed that?]

✅ The reserve power transmission line to the Zaporizhzhia NPP has been restored, the IAEA reports
“A backup transmission line to the Zaporizhzhia NPP in Ukraine has been restored, providing the plant with external power supply necessary for reactor cooling and other safety functions,” the report says. [however other reports are clear that all the reactors are being put into a cold state]

📌 The invaders from the Russian Federation have banned the transportation of humanitarian aid for residents of occupied Kherson through Vasylivka, said Roman Holovnya, adviser to the mayor of Kherson
“Kherson is cut off from the left-bank part, which was one of the elements of food supply. There is enough food, but it all depends on the strata of the population. Socially unprotected layers suffer. This situation is greatly complicated, ”said Holovnya.

⚡️PM: Greece won’t provide Ukraine with S-300 surface-to-air missiles.

⚡️Ukrainian military says it downed 9 out of 11 Russian missiles launched on Sept. 11.

⚡️Macron discusses Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant with Putin, asks him to withdraw weap

⚡️Former Kharkiv security chief arrested on treason charges.

Intelligence: Command of Russia’s Western Military District dismissed after series of mass defeats. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov, who had commanded Russia’s intervention in Syria and was appointed commander of the Western Military District on Aug. 26, was removed from command.

I saw a rumour that in fact the Kremlin had contacted the Ministry of Finance to arrange the delivery of death-money to 48,000 families of Russian soldiers.

oops

Re the Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, this is what my guest had been speculating they would do but he was worried they would do it with tactical nuclear weapons rather than conventional.
I wonder if Ukrainian intelligence knew attacking electricity supplies was the plan and people in Ukraine had been warned power outages were likely so they could prepare.

I saw a rumour that in fact the Kremlin had contacted the Ministry of Finance to arrange the delivery of death-money to 48,000 families of Russian soldiers.

Ive seen this. The suggestion is that this was for dead only and doesn't include missing or wounded.

Which would be significant if true.

My understanding was the fear was they would attack with conventional weapons to provoke an accident that could be blamed on the Ukrainians.

In theory if they used tactical nukes they could pretend it was an accident too.

With the plant being fully shut down it makes it much harder to pass off as that.

A winter without power in parts of Ukraine is a very bleak prospect (and one that makes our energy crisis look just moaning).

Talk is that this current offensive will take us up to the start of winter at which point everyone will dig in and largely just try and survive rather than attack.

In theory if they used tactical nukes they could pretend it was an accident too.

Not credibly. There's no way to create a nuclear explosion with what is present at a nuclear power plant. The fuel has to be concentrated to weapons-grade material.

Assuming Putin cannot press the nuclear button on his own and needs others to implement his order, I see even less incentive for his people to comply now that his standing has been much reduced. Why spark a nuclear incident for a leader whose days are in question.

I'd say oops, computer says 'no'.

Agreed...

It's supposedly fairly straightforward with the right equipment and know how to discriminate between the products of a something like a tac nuke detonation and the products of a reactor event/explosion...in simplistic terms the by products effectively leave nuclear fingerprints all over themselves....

Just to add:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_WC-135_Constant_Phoenix

That's a good point. As soon as more than one country had nuclear weapons, there's always been a substantial risk to being a person in the chain that would set them off because nearly everyone involved will always know there's a possibility they're setting off a chain of events that will cost their own life and/or that of their loved ones, or at least substantially worsen the society they live in. And you can't really get round that. It's even more significant if the people involved know the leader giving the order isn't liable to be in a position to protect them once the shit does hit the fan. Plus I wonder how many of their nukes actually work anyway.

It's supposedly fairly straightforward with the right equipment and know how to discriminate between the products of a something like a tac nuke detonation and the products of a reactor event/explosion...in simplistic terms the by products effectively leave nuclear fingerprints all over themselves....

The worst case with a civilian power plant is a meltdown in the reactor vessel, as happened in Chernobyl. The blast, shock wave and thermal signature from a nuclear weapon is very distinct. The US and Russia have satellites that primarily watch for large, rapid thermal blooms that could indicate either the launch of an ICBM or a nuclear weapons detonation.

www.anl.gov/article/10-myths-about-nuclear-energy

Aircraft like the WC-135 are mostly used to detect byproducts from underground tests, as the NK's are wont to do.

The blast, shock wave and thermal signature from a nuclear weapon is very distinct.

True...as for the airborne "sniffer" side of things and what that can reveal, as I'm sure you know side of things that goes back many a year (it's now in public domain even the dear old RAF/UK had a independent capability once upon a time, in the days of above ground Soviet tests)... ultimately it's hard to hide anything these days........

Let's hope that Putin understands that using a tactical nuke would bring NATO into the conflict in some meaningful way and take the leash off of Ukraine to strike targets within Russia. It would also be one more sign that the SMO has gone badly off course.

This surprised me. Kremlin propagandists are questioning whether genocide was the right approach to take with Ukraine and spinning a tale that the whole mess was due to Putin getting bad advice. This will fuel conflict between Putin and the military and intelligence services as the finger-pointing begins.

twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1569070513909022720

Putin has blinked and backed down before during this conflict, and does seem pretty keen to carry on living, so I'm hopeful.

Ah, so opting for the clichéd narrative: "Our glorious leader can't possibly be wrong. He's been let down and led astray by <scapegoat>"

The scapegoat might be a grand vizier (or group thereof in the form of specific military & intelligence staff); or it might be a larger group in society ("the elite", people of a particular race or religion, immigrants, women... hate-target of your chosing).

It's more dangerous for more people when the scapegoats are a large group, as they may get attacked.

From the Telegraph:

Russian politicians urge Putin to resign
Local politicians in Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a petition calling on Vladimir Putin to resign, in a rare show of criticism of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, writes Russia Correspondent Nataliya Vasilyeva.
Ksenia Torstrem, a councillor from St. Petersburg, published the petition with more than 20 signatures from politicians representing 18 districts in Russia’s two largest cities, and urged more deputies to back it.
President Putin’s “actions are hurting Russia and its citizens,” the petition said. “We demand Vladimir Putin’s resignation as president.”
The rare show of opposition to the war in Ukraine followed a similar petition in St Petersburg last week, which also called for Mr Putin’s removal.
The deputies who signed the letter to the Russian prosecutor general were subsequently fined for “discrediting the Russian armed forces”.

The number within Russia brave enough to call for Putin's removal are growing 💪