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Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

999 replies

MagicFox · 28/08/2022 09:05

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

OP posts:
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91
MMBaranova · 10/09/2022 22:03

Thinks are going very well.

The rationalisations now being made by those on the Russian side are just not credible and more and more of them are realising that there is a debacle.

MissConductUS · 10/09/2022 22:17

A lot of this is redundant to other reports, but here's the WSJ's coverage of what's happening. The story just posted about 20 minutes ago.

In Major Advance, Ukraine Drives Russians Out of Key Front-Line Cities - Kyiv marks its biggest strategic gain since mounting northeastern offensive this week

Ukrainian forces pushed deep into Russian-controlled territory Saturday, handing Kyiv some of the most strategically important towns and cities in the northeast of the country and delivering retreating Russian forces one of their biggest setbacks since the start of the war.

In a matter of days, Ukraine retook swaths of its Kharkiv region, where Russians had fought ferociously for months, spending lives and ammunition to take over cities, sometimes a building at a time.

In the weeks leading up to the offensive that Ukraine launched earlier this week, Kyiv’s forces used Western-made weapons, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or Himars, against Russian supply lines and front-line positions.

The growing success of Ukraine’s advance signals to Western backers the effectiveness of weapons the U.S. and Europe have given to Kyiv. It comes at a particularly critical time for Western powers, days after Moscow indefinitely suspended natural-gas flows to Europe, raising the prospect of energy rationing this winter.

Russia’s retreat from key cities is likely aimed at avoiding encirclement after Ukraine captured the town of Kupyansk, which sits on a rail and road hub, and severed the last artery that connected Russia with thousands of its front-line troops.

“It’s a complete collapse,” Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, said about the Russian pullout of forces between Kupyansk and Izyum. “In the battle of Donbas, they probably had more troops deployed there than anywhere and now they seem to be unable to hold anything.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said late Saturday that Ukrainian forces had managed to retake 2,000 square kilometers from the Russians—more than twice the land area of New York City—since the start of the month. That is double the territory it held on Thursday.

“These days, the Russian army is showing its best side—its back,” said Mr. Zelensky in a statement on his Telegram channel.

Photos from Russian and Ukrainian channels on Telegram showed Ukrainian soldiers holding the country’s flag in front of the city hall in Kupyansk. Pro-Kremlin Russian military correspondents said Moscow’s forces had pulled back across the Oskil River to the eastern part of the city.

Kupyansk had featured in pro-Russian propaganda when residents unfurled an enormous Russian flag over the town’s central square.

The advance also took Ukrainian forces to Izyum, which Moscow intended to use as a bridgehead to launch more attacks on the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the last two remaining Ukrainian strongholds in the Donetsk region.

In the south of the country, Ukrainian forces were also retaking territory, moving the front line forward between 2 and 10 kilometers at a time, said Natalia Humenyuk, a spokeswoman for the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Southern Command.

Russia’s Defense Ministry on Saturday confirmed that it had pulled troops out of Izyum and Balakliya, which had been taken by the Ukrainians earlier this week. Ministry spokesman Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said that the troops were regrouping in the direction of Donetsk, which Russia has held since the conflict broke out in 2014.

The Ukrainian advances of recent days are the culmination of months of methodic preparation, which included artillery and rocket strikes on Russian targets, followed by the well-telegraphed intention to launch a counteroffensive in the south. That caused Moscow to redeploy its soldiers toward Kherson and left much of the northeast with little manpower.

Despite the rapid gains, it remains unclear how fast Ukrainian forces, which are also suffering shortages of artillery and ammunition, will be able to consolidate their control over such a large area or advance further.

Mr. Zelensky said Friday that his country’s forces had retaken control of more than 30 towns and villages in the Kharkiv region in recent days and that measures were being taken to secure the gains. It couldn’t immediately be determined what reserves Ukraine has available to shore up the territory it seized and expand on its gains.

“The Ukrainians are going to have their own logistical problems supplying all their different troops spread all over the area now,” said Mr. O’Brien. “But the Russians are going to have their own problems stabilizing the line, so it will be chaotic for a while until a new line starts asserting itself.”

If Kyiv maintains its grasp, the thrust would represent a large setback for Russian plans to take Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas, a goal the Kremlin set after it failed in its initial attempt to take Kyiv, the capital, in March.

The Kremlin hasn’t responded to gains Ukraine has made in recent days. On Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a whirlwind of appearances on state TV, but didn’t address the retreat. He promoted the Kremlin’s online voting system and visited a new martial-arts center in Moscow, a park in the city center and the opening of a new Ferris wheel to mark the 875th anniversary of the founding of the Russian capital.

“While the whole front is in shock, Uncle Vova will participate in the opening of the Ferris wheel…And then watch the fireworks,” one Russian military blogger wrote on Telegram on Saturday, using a nickname for Vladimir. “Please tell me, Mr. President, do you by any chance not see all the messed-up things that are going on at the front from that wheel?”

On a widely watched Russian news talk show Friday evening, a national guard commander, Apti Alaudinov, said Kupyansk had no extraordinary military importance. He was quickly contradicted by Russian military expert Mikhail Khodaryonok, who said Ukraine’s recapturing the town would signify an important gain.

“Kupyansk is undoubtedly a tasty target for the Ukrainian Armed Forces insofar as it is an intersection of railroads and highways and is a logistical base that supplies materiel for practically all our troops west of the Siverskyi Donets River, so the stakes are very high,” he said.

The advances made by Ukrainian forces are important for Kyiv’s forces, which have been facing their own hardships with supplies of artillery and ammunition.
Hrakove is one of dozens of Kharkiv-area places that Ukraine says it has recaptured in recent days.

On Saturday, Oleh Synyehubov, the head of the Kharkiv region, praised the armed forces from Balakliya, which was taken by the Ukrainians earlier this week.

“Guys and girls of the Armed Forces, today you are creating a new history of a free Ukraine,” he said.

Vitaly Ganchev, the head of the Russian-installed administration in the Kharkiv region, appealed to those in the areas where fighting was under way to leave their houses to prevent civilian deaths.

But many residents have stayed on to welcome incoming Ukrainian soldiers, sometimes with tears of joy after months of Russian occupation. One video showed Ukrainian soldiers in the city of Balakliya clambering on top of an armored personnel carrier to tear down a Russian-propaganda banner reading, “We are with Russia! One people!”

OwlsDance · 10/09/2022 23:08

I wouldn't worry about Ukraine having enough resources to hold down its gains. Russia doesn't have any active reserves left. Zero. And those troops that managed to run away aren't coming back in a hurry. And all the commanders know the war is lost too. They won't want to make any decisions now, because they see the pointlessness of it all, they know they can't win.

The magnitude of what is happening is far bigger than the regained territories. It raises some very uncomfortable questions.

blueshoes · 10/09/2022 23:09

MissConductUSA and Ijsbear, thanks for the latest round ups. It is all good news. Things are moving in the right direction for Ukraine ⚡

PerkingFaintly · 10/09/2022 23:09

After losing the military battle, Russia will still try to win the information war on the world stage.

If Putin is still alive and in charge he might well manage this, as he seems exceptionally deft at manipulating people.

For the effectiveness of information warfare above physical and legal victories, we need look at the example of the Former Guy in the US. He lost the election, but clever manipulation caused thousands of otherwise normal, law-abiding people to travel to Washington and storm the Capitol. Even now the spell hasn't entirely worn off large numbers of Americans, and some are convinced that he's a poor, hard-done-by victim of evil acts by bad people who need to be punished.

Imagine that on a world scale, with all the countries currently aiding Ukraine cast as the bad guys, and poor lil Russia as the victim.

Putin might lose Ukraine but gain power and friends internationally. And he'll also play his very common game of not attempting to directly raise his own standing – contenting himself with lowering that of his enemies. This is a long game he has played for years.

blueshoes · 10/09/2022 23:16

@PerkingFaintly thanks for the timely reminder to not underestimate Putin. I can see how that could happen. I was talking to a relative in South East Asia and he bought the line that this is a NATO conspiracy and that Putin's hand was forced by the US. Does not help that that part of the world is dominated by China.

You said 'if Putin is still alive and in charge'. Are you alluding to the risk that Putin will be forced out or worse by the Russian elite if he lost the war? Putin has got to survive that first.

PerkingFaintly · 10/09/2022 23:16

(I am touching wood as I type that, mind. Don't want to tempt fate with my assumption that Ukraine will win on the ground...)

L1ttledrummergirl · 10/09/2022 23:20

I've been lurking on these threads since the beginning but haven't had much to say. Today's news is fantastic. Thank you so much for keeping us updated.

PerkingFaintly · 10/09/2022 23:21

Re Putin being alive and in charge... I just didn't want to make the assumption he would be.

Not for any specific reason. But even more than usual just now, two days after the death of the Queen, I'm very aware that the head of state can change.

PerkingFaintly · 10/09/2022 23:26

Also borne in upon me at the moment is the extent to which the personal touch of the head of state determines how things pan out. I think I've often underestimated this.

So on reflection, I do think the Russia's ability to spin the PR war in its favour might be personal to Putin, and that any successor might simply not be able to pull it off.

OwlsDance · 10/09/2022 23:38

Putin won't survive a military defeat. There's a lot of anger and hatred surfacing up from patriotic Russians who feel they've been let down and betrayed. They need someone to blame. The fingerpointing has already started.

Putin will try to pin this on military commandment. I don't think they'll idly sit and do nothing though. They understand their precarious position all too well. There will be a lot of interesting happening, and not just in Ukraine.

blueshoes · 11/09/2022 00:05

⚡️Russian Duma officials fined after calling for removal of Putin.
Russian Deputy Dmitry Palyuga and several other elected officials from the Smolninskoye municipality of St. Petersburg on Sept. 7 called on Russia's State Duma to impeach Russian dictator Vla[dimir Putin for what they say are crimes of treason
[this is the 2nd time that a number of officials have called for his removal, the first was in St Petersburg]

I found an article on this in cnn:

edition.cnn.com/2022/09/09/europe/russia-officials-fined-for-putin-impeachment-call-intl/index.html

Russian officials face fines after calling for 'impeachment' of President Putin

(CNN)Several elected officials in Russia have been summoned by police after they called for the impeachment of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In a rare display of dissent in the country, local deputies from the Smolninskoye municipality in the St. Petersburg area appealed to the Russian Duma to impeach the President, for what they called crimes of high treason.

The author of the appeal, Dmitry Palyuga, posted it on Twitter, alleging Putin was responsible for "(1) the decimation of young able-bodied Russian men who would serve the workforce better than the military; (2) Russia's economic downturn and brain drain; (3) NATO's expansion eastward, including adding Finland and Sweden to "double" its border with Russia; (4) the opposite effect of the "special military operation" in Ukraine."

I'd say the Russian officials are spot on. At this point, a fine is probably the least of their worries.

Those dissenting voices against Putin may finally start to snow ball. Then again, with Russia, there is the comfort of the devil you know. God knows what horror is waiting in the wings to take over from Putin. Let's hope it is just a shoot out amongst the elite and lots of bodies falling out of windows rather than civil unrest in Russia.

PerkingFaintly · 11/09/2022 00:16

Another issue Russia has, is that Putin has been burning through people.

It's a common issue among leaders trying to hang on to their position. They dispose of all the first-class talent (in Putin's case by actually killing them off, not merely sacking them) because it's from this group that a successful challenge could come.

So then their administration is filled with second-class folk. Or third-class. Or the bottom of the barrel. It's these who take over when the leader does eventually go.

Unless the country has talent waiting in the wings or waiting to return from exile, it's then stuck in a downward trajectory.

blueshoes · 11/09/2022 00:27

Unless the country has talent waiting in the wings or waiting to return from exile, it's then stuck in a downward trajectory.

@PerkingFaintly Any chance it could be Navalny? Haven't heard a peep about him recently.

Good point that Putin has got rid of all his good people. It is an aging Russian elite. There isn't a credible successor generation in Russia who are, oh I don't know, around the age of Zelensky?

PerkingFaintly · 11/09/2022 01:03

I don't know enough to rate the likelihood of Navalny, but if he's still alive when Putin goes I guess he'd be a contender: he seems very smart and to have a lot of backbone.

Obviously any future leader of Russia is likely to put Russian interests first. They won't (shouldn't!) be some puppet of external powers. So a future leader of Russia may not be to the taste of, eg, the UK. I just have to hope that they are less dangerous to Russia and to the world than Putin.

RedToothBrush · 11/09/2022 02:14

blueshoes · 11/09/2022 00:27

Unless the country has talent waiting in the wings or waiting to return from exile, it's then stuck in a downward trajectory.

@PerkingFaintly Any chance it could be Navalny? Haven't heard a peep about him recently.

Good point that Putin has got rid of all his good people. It is an aging Russian elite. There isn't a credible successor generation in Russia who are, oh I don't know, around the age of Zelensky?

Navalny has effectively been silenced this week. He has had his attorney client privilege revoked with any correspondence now needing three day checks.

They are arguing that he is "continuing to direct his criminal activity from jail" as a justification for this. The Russians said he is doing it through his legal representation but were unable / unwilling to give an example of what he was doing wrong, saying it was a secret he didn't need sharing with him.

Concerns have been raised about this development by the US.

There has been some suggestion that this is a prelude before he suddenly is taken ill in some way. His supporters are extremely concerned about the implications and his welfare saying they fear for his life.

A photo of him has been shared this week. He is barely recognisable from the man who was an opposition figure.

It has to be said that the timing of this, the week things have turned particularly badly for Ukraine is hard to pass off as purely coincidental.

CornwallLass · 11/09/2022 05:09

I remain a little confused. The maps are still showing huge areas under Russian control, completely dwarfing the area retaken. What am I missing?

DFOD · 11/09/2022 06:18

CornwallLass · 11/09/2022 05:09

I remain a little confused. The maps are still showing huge areas under Russian control, completely dwarfing the area retaken. What am I missing?

I understand this to be that the front line is very thin - but very long (think it’s a few posts back on this thread) that once you puncture the front line you could get to the Russian border uninterrupted as the land / communities behind the front line are not overridden with military?

DFOD · 11/09/2022 06:21

Are we worried what a humiliated and vexatious Putin will do? Turn off the gas supplies to the west for instance? Did anyone see the Gasprom animation about the severe winter in Europe?

borntobequiet · 11/09/2022 07:38

L1ttledrummergirl · 10/09/2022 23:20

I've been lurking on these threads since the beginning but haven't had much to say. Today's news is fantastic. Thank you so much for keeping us updated.

Second this.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 11/09/2022 08:20

DFOD · 11/09/2022 06:21

Are we worried what a humiliated and vexatious Putin will do? Turn off the gas supplies to the west for instance? Did anyone see the Gasprom animation about the severe winter in Europe?

My guest is worried Putin’s parting shot will be nuclear.

DFOD · 11/09/2022 08:23

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 11/09/2022 08:20

My guest is worried Putin’s parting shot will be nuclear.

Yes my thoughts as well.

And if any truce / withdrawal will just be living under a permanent threat.

What does history tell us about tyrants - are they always toppled?

RedToothBrush · 11/09/2022 08:39

Ukraine Front Lines AT euromaidenpr
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is fully stopped. The last power unit #6 is being prepared for cooling down. One of transmission lines w the UA grid was repaired & now #ZaporizhiaNPP gets electricity for in-house needs from there.

Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant going into a full cold shut down today.

That massively reduces one of the big fears that Putin will attempt a nuclear accident, which is felt to be far more likely as a scenario than a nuclear bomb.

DFOD · 11/09/2022 08:49

RedToothBrush · 11/09/2022 08:39

Ukraine Front Lines AT euromaidenpr
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is fully stopped. The last power unit #6 is being prepared for cooling down. One of transmission lines w the UA grid was repaired & now #ZaporizhiaNPP gets electricity for in-house needs from there.

Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant going into a full cold shut down today.

That massively reduces one of the big fears that Putin will attempt a nuclear accident, which is felt to be far more likely as a scenario than a nuclear bomb.

This is brilliant news - thanks for this update.

PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior · 11/09/2022 08:54

It's a common issue among leaders trying to hang on to their position. They dispose of all the first-class talent (in Putin's case by actually killing them off, not merely sacking them) because it's from this group that a successful challenge could come.

Sounds familiar!

Re nukes, I do understand that worry, but I also don't think there's anything much to be done about the possibility at the moment. He's either that stupid or he isn't.

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