Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

I understand your concern, but I think it's true. The Ukrainians have excellent intelligence from satellite recon, drone recon, partisans reports, intercepted Russian communications, etc. I don't think they'd be pressing forward in Kharkiv like this if the Russians had any real chance of stopping them. I think they've correctly concluded that the Russians are in such disarray and are so undermanned and undersupplied that this was a golden opportunity to strike.

It's also important to understand the Kharkiv offensive as a proof of concept. It shows that with this approach, they can retake territory and put the Russians on the back foot. This is hugely important for Ukrainian morale and for maintaining international support. They had to show their international supporters that they are backing a winner.

One unconfirmed report I thought was interesting said that the Ukrainians had moved HIMARS into the Kharkiv salient. That allows them to threaten many targets that were previously out of range, and it demonstrates how confident they are that they can securely hold the newly liberated territory.

There was footage (or pictures?) of M270 in liberated Balakleya.

Just wanted to say a huge thank you to everyone on these threads for such informative analysis. I'm probably just one of hundreds of lurkers who are extremely grateful!

@Mb76 yesterday

im just waiting for my daughter to come back from school and we will go lay some flowers by Windsor castle. It’s not really sunk in that Her Majesty is gone. My daughter is named after her.

It’s very nice you were going to do that, and that your daughter is named after her.

@MissConductUS Thank you for your informative post yesterday, including the link, about ‘manoeuvre’ strategies - as opposed to attrition with a large force - when fighting a war.

To everyone else - the radio news just now about Ukraine seemed to be good. It is so hard to dare hope, but it was cheering news.

Kharkiv offensive: Ukraine enters key town as counter-attack gathers pace
By Matt Murphy in London and Hugo Bachega in Kyiv
^BBC News
10 September 2022, 09:26 BST
Updated 5 minutes ago^
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62860774

Me too! I learn a lot here and am just sorry I didn't discover this thread until a couple of months ago.

I also wanted to say thanks for how warmly I've been welcomed here. As a Yank, that isn't always the case on MN.

@MissConductUS thank you so much for those recommendations and links.

I have lurked on these threads (sometimes posted) from the beginning and the insight, dedication and resources from so many key posters has been very welcomed.

My take on the last day or two is it has produced extremely good news but before we get ahead of ourselves maybe we might need to consider everything in the context of Churchill's comment post the battle of EI Alamein...

"“This not the end, not even the beginning of the end but, possibly, the end of the beginning”,

I sincerely hope the Ukes have got good a really good over view of what's going on the flanks - I suspect they probably have 😉..and I sincerely hope the Russians are all fast losing the will and the ability to fight.

I do hope so

I think the good news is real. But from conversations with my guest yesterday I think there’s also an element of holding one’s breath even more now because Putin is a mad bastard.
Everything crossed for a good outcome for Ukraine.

It looks as if the Ukrainian forces are definitely in Izyum, as well as Kupiyansk.
edition.cnn.com/2022/09/10/europe/ukraine-kharkiv-advances-intl-hnk/index.html

Things feel so much more positive now

This is exactly how I feel. Ever so cautiously optimistic.

I just can't believe it. Ukraine in Lukhansk oblast and maybe Donetsk oblast too!

One unconfirmed report I thought was interesting said that the Ukrainians had moved HIMARS into the Kharkiv salient. That allows them to threaten many targets that were previously out of range, and it demonstrates how confident they are that they can securely hold the newly liberated territory.

@MissConductUS That is a bold move and probably one which Ukraine would want to keep under wraps both literally and figuratively. It seems that one advantage of capturing territory back from Russia (I recall reports that Ukraine rapidly advanced 50 km into Kharkiv in 3 days) is to increase the range at which they can strike with HIMARS. If HIMARS in Ukraine currently have a range of 80 km (I am not sure), then adding 50 km to that would be significant. I know I know, it does not add up that way in reality but one can dream.

Thanks for the collection of links and for being a Yank!

My hopes for Ukraine. I wonder when they will eventually make it to Mariupol 😓

I hope Luhansk and Donetsk as well soon, and eventually Crimea 🙏

The Churchill quote is very apt, @notimagain and threats, particularly artillery, from their flanks is a major risk for the Ukrainians at the moment. Another major risk is outrunning their supply lines, as the Russians did so spectacularly during their attempt to take Kyiv. Now that the Russians have officially abandoned Izium (which interestingly means "raisin" in English), I expect that the Ukrainians will take Kupiansk, then pause to consolidate control and start pushing back on their flanks. The Russians now have some very unpleasant choices about how to consolidate and what they are willing to give up. The extent of this humiliation for the Russians cannot be overstated and will be severely degrading their morale.

@blueshoes , that's exactly how it adds up. We've seen on the battlefield that HIMARS can strike targets 80-85km away. Assuming that they'll deploy at night, within 10km or so of the front, there is now a whole new set of targets available that were previously thought safe. And you are most welcome, I assure you. 😀

Katerina Sergatskova AT ksergatskova
Serhiy Haidai, the head of the Luhansk regional administration, says that he is waiting for some good news from Lysychansk. And from my source from the city, Ukrainian troops are already there, fighting for liberation. I guess tomorrow or on Monday we’ll hear about Severodonetsk.

Lesia Vasylenko at lesiavasylenko
#Izyum back to normal colours. Ukraine had no doubt whatsoever

Looks like Russians just fled Izyum. This is starting to look like a complete collapse of the Russian front in places.

Russia admitted troops withdrew from Izyum and Kupyansk "to regroup". Allegedly it's all been a tactical maneuver, didn't you know? 😉

Let's just hope that lots of Russian soldiers are reading these updates and decide to vote with their feet sooner rather than later.

The picture of the soldiers. They look so happy and triumphant. It must feel good to fight hard and get something back that was previously yours but was stolen from you. It is crystal clear what they are fighting for.

In contrast, when Russians take over a territory, they have simply levelled it with artillery ahead, killed lots of civilians and walked over blood and rubble. How can that possibly feel great, if there was any decency to a Russian soldier.

finally!

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv counteroffensive as of September 9.

The Kremlin is rushing resources to Kharkiv Oblast in response to effective Ukrainian operations.

Ukrainian forces reached the outskirts of Kupyansk and are advancing on Izyum from the northwest, north, northeast, and southeast as of September 9 and will likely sever Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCS) to Izyum within the coming days.

Ukrainian forces may have advanced north of Hrushivka towards a Russian logistics hub in Velykyi Burluk, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine, including interdicting Russian GLOCS, degrading Russian morale.

Russian forces conducted ground assaults north of Kharkiv City and across the Eastern Axis.

The United Nations released a report detailing poor Russian treatment of Ukrainian POWs and detained civilians.

Bit tired tonight ... It's really confirmed that they are out of Izyum?

Didn't it take them 2 months to capture it?

Yes, they're out. Even Russia admitted that. The comments are hilarious.

Doesn't look like Ukraine is pausing to stop yet:

twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1568622840207003648?t=UzBjZ9AtoJcoPeF5A-O2xg&s=19

Just seen it!

⚡️Donetsk proxy confirms Russian retreat from Izium, Kharkiv Oblast.
Daniil Bezsonov, a Russian proxy leader in Donetsk Oblast, wrote on his personal Telegram channel that Russian troops had withdrawn from Izyum and a few other settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. Izyum has been a key stronghold of Russian occupying forces in eastern Ukraine since it was occupied in late March.

⚡️Ukrainian troops confirm entering Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast.
The Security Service of Ukraine posted a photo of special operations forces in Kupiansk after unverified reports of the liberation of the city on the morning of Sept. 10. [iirc, and it's been a long day so I'm not sure, it has a big railway junction that is vital for Russians bringing military hardware. This is a strategically significant loss]

⚡️Minister: Rammstein-5 meeting a success, Western support remains strong.

⚡️Governor: Ukrainian forces advance to outskirts of Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast.

⚡️Mayor: Ukrainian troops fight Russian forces on outskirts of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces keep resisting the Ukrainian advance towards Lyman, he added.

⚡️Russia claims it withdrew from part of Kharkiv Oblast to boost its efforts in Donetsk Oblast.
Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for Russia's Defense Ministry, said on Sept. 10 that Russia had transferred troops from Balakliya and Izium in Kharkiv Oblast to Donetsk Oblast.
He claimed that the aim of the withdrawal was to achieve the main aim of Russia's so-called "special military operation" - the capture of the entire Donbas

⚡️Russians in occupied parts of Kharkiv Oblast tell civilians to ‘evacuate’ to Russia. [again. I admit I'm afraid of what a defeated Russian army will do to civilans].

According to Czech government minister for European affairs Mikuláš Bek, Hungary's recent actions call into question its continued membership in the EU and make it theoretically possible to expel the country from the bloc.

⚡️ Charles III officially became King of Great Britain. This was announced by the Accession Council

⚡️ German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit

🚢 On September 10, five vessels with Ukrainian grain on board left, the Ministry of Infrastructure reported. In total, they transport 90,000 tons of agricultural products to Africa and Europe

📸 Dmytro Kozatsky (Orest), press officer of the Azov Regiment, who is currently in Russian captivity, won the prestigious Px3 photo contest in Paris. His photo series with Azovstal took first place in the "Press/War" category and second place in the overall "Press" category

📣 In the war against Ukraine, Russia lost 57% of its missile potential
According to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov, the NATO countries, probably fearing a direct clash with the Russian Federation, did not dare to close the sky. However, the Ukrainian air defense forces themselves began to successfully shoot down missiles.

🇺🇦🇪🇸 Spanish army will train the Ukrainian combat units in Saragosa, reports El Mundo, referring to the Ministry of Defense of Spain

⚡️ The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also pushing forward in the south, covering from two to several dozens of kilometers on different locations