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Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

999 replies

MagicFox · 28/08/2022 09:05

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
91
blueshoes · 09/09/2022 13:45

@RedToothBrush welcome back!

It would be a tremendous result if Ukrainian forces could sever Russian communications and supply linkes to Kupyansk and Izyum.

PS, I have been trying to post the above gem over the last hour but my page keeps freezing. Maybe the bots have decided to do a DDOS cyber attack instead. Probably just mn being rubbish.

Mb76 · 09/09/2022 14:30

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 09/09/2022 11:57

I shall not quickly forget the Queen having blue and yellow flowers in a vase behind them when she met with Mr Trudeau in early March, and quietly wearing a blue hat with yellow decoration for the opening of parliament two days later. I think there was also a hat which had appeared before and been all yellow, but suddenly sprouted blue flowers.

It seemed surprisingly clear where her sympathies lay.

Indeed, and this did not go unnoticed by the Ukrainians 🙏
im just waiting for my daughter to come back from school and we will go lay some flowers by Windsor castle. It’s not really sunk in that Her Majesty is gone. My daughter is named after her.

OwlsDance · 09/09/2022 17:25

There's some absolutely mad Ukraine success being reported on Twitter.

Look at these maps. First one is yesterday, 2nd 11am today, 3rd one 3pm today.

twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1568216432072073217?t=63cg0F-C0HRbLVfVUtBGDA&s=19

notimagain · 09/09/2022 17:46

OwlsDance · 09/09/2022 17:25

There's some absolutely mad Ukraine success being reported on Twitter.

Look at these maps. First one is yesterday, 2nd 11am today, 3rd one 3pm today.

twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1568216432072073217?t=63cg0F-C0HRbLVfVUtBGDA&s=19

Well it looks good on paper but lets hope if all really is as depicted they've secured their flanks and the Russians really are incapable of any meaningful offensive ops..

Over to @MissConductUS for further and more expert analysis.

MissConductUS · 09/09/2022 19:12

I am hardly an expert, @notimagain , but I appreciate the accolade. By the way, there's evidence that the UAF is now using the Su-27 as a platform for the AGM-88.

twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1568199283278548995?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Owls, I'm seeing similar reports. One thing to keep in mind is that many villages being liberated weren't actively being defended, and once they are cleared, they aren't being garrisoned by the Ukrainians either. What matters is how much the Ukrainians have been able to move the FEBA (forward edge of the battle area), particularly if they can cut rail lines and major roads.

It's very hopeful and not completely unexpected. We know a lot more now than we did three days ago. Three days from now, the picture will be much clearer still.

Ben Hodges, the retired general who commanded the US Army Europe and who is very highly regarded, has said that it looks likely that within a year or so the Ukrainians will prevail and reclaim everything, including Crimea. If BenHodges says so, I believe it.

Ukraine Will Retake Crimea Within a Year, Former U.S. Europe General Says

In more bad news for the Russians, one of their key general officers seems to have been captured.

Top Russian Commander of Invading Army Captured by Ukraine—Report

In any NATO army, this would be disruptive but not a catastrophe. Because of their command doctrine, this is a catastrophe for the Russians. Mid-level commanders will keep carrying out their last orders even if they no longer make sense simply because no one tells them it's okay to stop.

I feel this is truly a strategic turning point and that the losses for the Russians will accelerate from here.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 09/09/2022 19:13

DH is currently being interviewed by The Wall Street Journal about developments at the nuclear power plant.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 09/09/2022 19:33

So the Ukrainian authorities are shutting down the power plant due to shelling and the WSJ wanted to know what this meant and the reprecuscions. DH got the impression that the journalist believes the plant is now back under Ukrainian control but DH didn't ask him directly.

RoseWineandCake · 09/09/2022 19:47

KyivPost

33m

According to the preliminary reports, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have entered the city of #Izum. #KharkivOffensive

They are in Izum already!

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 09/09/2022 20:16

Sadly DH was wrong and the plant is still under Russian control.

PerfectlyPreservedQuagaarWarrior · 09/09/2022 20:31

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 09/09/2022 20:16

Sadly DH was wrong and the plant is still under Russian control.

Soon!

Ijsbear · 09/09/2022 20:46

Once that is retaken it will be immensely reassuring.

Ijsbear · 09/09/2022 20:53

⚡️The Latvian Saeima approved the separation of the Latvian Orthodox Church from the Moscow Patriarchate

‼️The Russians carried out an airstrike on a hospital in the Sumy region in the morning. The building was destroyed, there were casualties [Christ]

💸 Ukraine will demand at least $300 billion in reparations from Russia for damages caused by the invasion. Currently, the Ministry of Justice is working on a resolution to create a compensation fund.

📝 The IAEA published a report on the results of the mission's visit to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which was seized by Russian invaders. Despite Russian pressure on IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, the report notes the presence of Russian military equipment on the territory of the nuclear power plant and that Ukrainian nuclear scientists are under pressure, as well as a reference to the Russian military occupation of the plant. You can learn more about the content of the report and its significance from the video.

Moldovia is restarting flights to Moscow.

📌Russia has enough stock of missiles for three years, but there are less than 200 Iskanders left
According to him, the old-style missiles have been in storage for more than 30 years, and there are about 7,000 of them in total.

⚡️Putin will hold an emergency meeting with members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation

🗣Ukraine and Poland have agreed to build a hub for the repair of military equipment, said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki

🇺🇳 Russia actually banned the UN from visiting places where Ukrainian prisoners of war are being held
This is also worrisome because observers have evidence of ill-treatment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said the head of the UN mission for human rights in Ukraine, Matilda Bogner

📌Ukraine received TheMIS tracked unmanned armored personnel carriers from Estonia – they can be used to evacuate the wounded or deliver ammunition.

⚡️The EU Council approved the allocation of macroeconomic assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 5 billion euros, according to the Czech Ministry of Finance

Zelenskyy met with the CEO of Bayraktar and discussed the future plant to be built in Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukraine’s military: Ukrainian forces hit Russian pontoon bridges in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️ Latvian President makes unannounced visit to Ukraine.

⚡️ WSJ: Russian oligarch Fridman offers $1 billion to Ukraine in exchange for sanctions relief.
Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman offered to transfer $1 billion of his personal wealth to the Ukrainian bank he co-founded, Alfa Bank, in an attempt to convince the U.K. to lift sanctions against him, reports the Wall Street Journal.

⚡️EU countries fail to agree on price cap for Russian gas.
On Sept. 9, the bloc's energy ministers failed to find a common approach during an extraordinary meeting to address soaring energy prices

⚡️Governor: Russian collaborator detained in liberated village in Kharkiv Oblast. He was the headman.

Fladdermus · 09/09/2022 21:06

Ijsbear · 09/09/2022 20:46

Once that is retaken it will be immensely reassuring.

Powering it down will make retaking it easier.

Ijsbear · 09/09/2022 22:18

So they have an override from afar where they can power it down? That the Russians can't stop?

MissConductUS · 09/09/2022 23:34

Ijsbear · 09/09/2022 22:18

So they have an override from afar where they can power it down? That the Russians can't stop?

That's unlikely. Control rods must be lowered into the reactor vessel to stop the nuclear reaction. I think the Russians would be able to stop that from happening.

Ijsbear · 10/09/2022 11:05

:s

+++

No ISW yet today - that's unusual

+++

⚡️European Commission recommends annulment of Russian citizens' existing visas in some cases.

⚡️Zelensky awards CEO of Turkey's Baykar with Order of Merit

⚡️Russian media: Russia sends reinforcements to Kharkiv in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive.

⚡️General Staff: Russia sends 1,300 Chechen soldiers to Kherson Oblast.

⚡️Report: Rebuilding Ukraine to cost estimated $349 billion.

⚡️German opposition leader calls for sending 100 Marder armored vehicles to Ukraine.German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been accused of blocking arms supplies, including the delivery of Marder vehicles, to Ukraine.

⚡️IAEA: Shelling destroys offsite power supply to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
Shelling near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has destroyed a vital offsite electric power plant, according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi.

⚡️Russian Duma officials fined after calling for removal of Putin.
Russian Deputy Dmitry Palyuga and several other elected officials from the Smolninskoye municipality of St. Petersburg on Sept. 7 called on Russia's State Duma to impeach Russian dictator Vla[dimir Putin for what they say are crimes of treason
[this is the 2nd time that a number of officials have called for his removal, the first was in St Petersburg]

⚡️ISW: Ukraine captures estimated 2,500 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive.

⚡️Ukrainian forces reportedly reach city center of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 30
OwlsDance · 10/09/2022 11:07

The biggest weapons supplier for Ukraine at the moment is Russia. All that new equipment that was sent in for the 3rd corps is going straight into Ukraines hands. Arestovych said yesterday that they have so many POWs they have nowhere to put them.

Ijsbear · 10/09/2022 11:09

⚡️Ukraine shoots down $157.5 million worth of Russian aircraft, missiles in 3 days.

⚡️Ukrainian TV camera operator killed in combat during liberation of Balakliia, Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️Over 8,000 Ukrainian men have tried to leave Ukraine illegally since Feb. 24.

⚡️Ukrainian army makes progress on the southern front.
Ukrainian forces made advances from several to tens of kilometers in some areas, Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern military command, said on television.

🔗 Ukrainian air defense forces defend the sky perfectly, but they need more weapons — spokesperson of the Ukrainian Air Force Yurii Ihnat

🗣Russia is involved in the war in Ukraine with more than 80% of the ground forces – NATO Secretary General
He added that the war in Ukraine is entering a critical phase. Ukrainian forces managed to stop the Russian offensive in the Donbas, strike back and take control of the territory again

📌Latvia and Poland have accelerated negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU, President of Latvia Egils Levits stressed during his visit to Kyiv

❗️ The IAEA demands an immediate cessation of hostilities near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the organization's director general Rafael Grossi said in a video message
“The energy infrastructure supplying Enerhodar was destroyed as a result of the shelling of the city thermal power plant. Now there is no water, electricity, or sewerage in Enerhodar. Restoration of ZNPP external power supply is unlikely. The IAEA says plant operators are considering shutting down the only remaining reactor. After that, the entire power plant will be completely dependent on emergency diesel generators,” Grossi said
According to the head of the IAEA, it is necessary to immediately create a nuclear safety zone in this area. This is the only way to ensure that an accident does not occur.

🛢 The US Treasury has published a preliminary plan for a mechanism for capping Russian oil prices:

▪️The embargo on US imports will remain in place;

▪️The ban on sea transportation of oil will come into force on December 5, oil products - on February 5, 2023;

▪️The United States is ready to apply sanctions to companies that buy oil more than the established price "ceiling";

▪️Countries that agreed to the application of limits will have the opportunity to participate in pricing.

According to a sociological survey by the ZDF TV channel, about 70% of Germans are ready to support Ukraine, even despite high energy prices

📣 President Putin believed that his invasion would demonstrate Russia's military might. Instead, the Russian military is turning to North Korea and Iran for the supplies it needs, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said

◾️ In the recently liberated village of Hrakovo, Kharkiv region, burial places of victims of Russian occupiers have already been discovered. After the village was liberated, a local resident turned to the National Police with a statement about the crime committed by the Russian military. The victims have signs of torture

Ukraine Invasion: Part 30
OwlsDance · 10/09/2022 11:10

I think ISW is facing the same issue that a lot of military bloggers do as well - by the time you gathered the enormous amount of materials and prepared something fir release, the situation has changed 10 times over.

OwlsDance · 10/09/2022 11:18

There are reports that Izyum surrendered.

DFOD · 10/09/2022 11:32

Is there a live online video channel anyone can recommend? Or news outlet?

MagicFox · 10/09/2022 11:39

V interesting Lawrence Freedman piece : samf.substack.com/p/gradually-then-suddenly?utm_medium=email

OP posts:
MissConductUS · 10/09/2022 12:02

Is there a live online video channel anyone can recommend? Or news outlet?

For real journalism, I like the WSJ and the Telegraph. I also highly recommend the Telegraph's podcast, Ukraine: The Latest. Dom Nicholls, their military analyst and former British Army officer, gives a battlefield update most days and they have a lot of interesting guests.

If you don't mind sifting through the dregs and unconfirmed reports, these have lots of videos and social media references, including news from the Russian Telegram channels.

www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/
www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/
www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/
www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/

LoveLarry · 10/09/2022 12:40

The speed of things this last week is making me feel sick with nerves

Is it too good to be true?

OwlsDance · 10/09/2022 12:51

LoveLarry · 10/09/2022 12:40

The speed of things this last week is making me feel sick with nerves

Is it too good to be true?

I don't think so. Everyone predicted that Russia will lose the war. What's happening now is just details of the story of how it's actually going to happen. But we already know the end.