Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

Very encouraging change on the Kharkiv front. This is all well planned. There are clearly some reverses but the images of regained places (sometimes with a town sign repainted in Ru colours can't be argued with. I suspect that somewhere the Russian forces will eventually break, probably the North side largely rural areas of Kherson oblast.

On a different level: I chatted online with two relatives in Ukraine in the last 48 hours. Both chats made me a bit sad as, while away from the front, but perhaps not the near random missile, it reminded me how much lives have been put on hold / degraded.

One in Kyiv is a fairly recent graduate and a planned career opportunity vanished. She's working in a cafe that is not getting enough customers to give her enough hours to more than scrape by.

The other of student age is from Dnipro (where my mother is from) but was sent by family to Zhytomyr. 'I studied marketing before the war. Now I live with friends of my mother who are tired of me now and I try to somehow survive. It's hard to find a job. My only desire is to live separately or go home, buy a new phone, and always have food'. I suspect she'll go back home.

Some influential Russian military analysts on Telegram are saying the Russian armed forces are getting their asses kicked experiencing setbacks on the battlefield and that defeat is certain unless Putin orders a full mobilization.

‘We have already lost’: far-right Russian bloggers slam military failures - Military pro-war bloggers with frontline contacts offer rare insight into Russia’s performance on ground

I don't think a full mobilization would do much, given the six to nine months it would take and the lack of equipment and supplies.

@MMBaranova ova · Today 17:30
On a different level: I chatted online with two relatives in Ukraine in the last 48 hours. Both chats made me a bit sad as, while away from the front, but perhaps not the near random missile, it reminded me how much lives have been put on hold / degraded………(the rest of what you wrote)

It must be utterly exhausting and dispiriting. What they are experiencing is so far from how we have spent our lives in Western Europe.

Just now when the Queen has died I have been thinking of how lucky many of us in the U.K. have been in this era symbolised by her reign.

All best wishes to your friends in Ukraine and everyone there, that they may defeat Russia and be able to live full lives again.

Just now when the Queen has died I have been thinking of how lucky many of us in the U.K. have been in this era symbolised by her reign.

whether Royalist or not ... no one can deny the Queen served her people all her life from the earliest of days, as best as she saw fit.

May she rest in peace.

My sincere condolences on the passing of HM. What a remarkable woman, and an inspiration to women everywhere.

The death of the Queen makes me feel somehow less safe, like an era is over in which we knew security. It's compounded by everything that's happening of course, but gosh it feels so sad

@MagicFox · Today 20:13
The death of the Queen makes me feel somehow less safe, like an era is over in which we knew security. It's compounded by everything that's happening of course, but gosh it feels so sad

I feel exactly the same MagicFox.
She seemed to carry decency, dignity and integrity on behalf is us all, like a load-bearer almost.

Someone on tv described the Queen as a moral authority and in terms of world leaders, she certainly epitomised a dedication to duty and genuine service to her country that is not replicated by many other leaders.

I'm not sure if most Brits appreciate Americans' great admiration, fondness, and respect for the Queen. I recall her last visit to NYC in 2010 when she spoke at the UN and visited ground zero. I also recall her visit during the bicentennial celebrations in 1996. I'm fairly sure she saw a New York Yankees baseball game during that trip.

My memory of the Queen that makes me tear up a bit was from 9/11. She had the Star Spangled Banner played outside of Buckingham palace as a gesture of solidarity with the US on that horrible day.

Godspeed, Your Majesty, and God save the King.

Thank you, MissConductUS. We have been so incredibly lucky to have her, and to have her for so long.

I still can't think without tears of her message read at a church service in NY after 9/11: "Grief is the price we pay for love."

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May.

Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.

Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.

Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian GLOCs, command-and-control points, and ammunition depots in Kherson Oblast.

Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify crackdowns and filtration measures to curb Ukrainian partisans and pro-Ukrainian saboteurs.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks across the Eastern Axis.

+++

⚡️Bloomberg: China buys Russian gas at 50% discount until the end of the year.

⚡️ Kyiv School of Economics: Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused direct damages worth over $114 billion.

⚡️ Health Ministry: Russia has completely destroyed 127 medical facilities since Feb. 24.

⚡️ US sanctions Iranian companies over drone sales to Russia.
The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on four Iranian companies and one individual for the development and shipment of Iranian drones to Russia.

⚡️ US to intensify efforts to reform UN Security Council due to Russia’s war.
Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, said the U.S. will push for reforms within the Security Council, including its veto rule. She noted that since 2009, Russia has cast 26 vetos.

⚡️Air Force: New Western air defense systems will enable Ukraine to shoot down more advanced Russian missiles.
The U.S.-supplied NASAMS and German IRIS-T air defense systems can even shoot down Iskander missiles, Ukrainian air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said in an interview with RBK Ukraine.
Ukraine's existing air defense architecture works well at shooting down Kalibr, Kh-101, and Kh-555 cruise missiles, but is not able to effectively counter Kh-22, Kh-31, Onyx, and Iskander systems, he said.

📌 The self-proclaimed “officials” of the occupied area of the Kharkiv region say they are going to take all children and women from the occupied Kupiansk and Izium districts.

⚡️The defenders of Ukraine liberated the village of Ozerne in the Donetsk region and improved the tactical situation in the Kramatorsk direction

⚡️The Ukrainian flag is already flying over the town of Balakliia. The flag appeared on the roof of the district state administration.
At the same time, it is noted that, even though Balakliia has returned under the control of the Ukrainian military, there is still an ongoing clean-up of Russian invaders, who may still be hiding in the town.

💪 Ukraine has hit more than 400 Russian targets with HIMARS missile systems supplied by the United States

🔎 Russian oligarch German Khan moved to Moscow after 10 years of living in London due to sanctions, writes Bloomberg. It’s proving a victory for Vladimir Putin, who for years tried to lure back rich citizens with foreign ties he saw as a potential source of disloyalty by offering tax incentives and capital amnesties”.

Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, said that Russia's strategic goals in Ukraine have failed. Their operational goals in this offensive were not successful. They did not capture the entire Donbas, but only crossed the Dnipro River in the south in the Kherson area," Milley said.
He also objected that the Ukrainian army was exhausted.

📌 The electricity in Enerhodar has disappeared again. The towns of Berdiansk, Melitopol and Prymorsk are facing power outages.

⚡️The United Kingdom will hand over 120 tractors for military equipment to Ukraine. They will speed up the redeployment of equipment, including multiple rocket launchers.

📃The Pentagon has released details of the previously announced $675 million military aid package for Ukraine

It included:

▪️Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
▪️Four 105mm Howitzers and 36,000 105mm artillery rounds;
▪️Additional High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARM);
▪️100 Armored High-Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWV);
▪️1.5 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
▪️More than 5,000 anti-armor systems;
▪️1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
▪️Additional grenade launchers and small arms;
▪️50 armored medical treatment vehicles;
▪️Night vision devices and other field equipment.

📌 Residents of Transnistria refuse to sign contracts with the Russian army, and there is mass desertion in the "operational group of troops" — Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine

Huge personnel losses again for Russia.

No UK Int Update so far today about the Ukraine invasion.

Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, said that Russia's strategic goals in Ukraine have failed. Their operational goals in this offensive were not successful. They did not capture the entire Donbas, but only crossed the Dnipro River in the south in the Kherson area," Milley said.
He also objected that the Ukrainian army was exhausted.

@Ijsbear , I was a bit confused by the last sentence, so I found GEN Milley's full remarks at Ramstein yesterday. For clarity, the word exhausted was not used.

Milley: Russian strategic objectives in Ukraine ‘have been defeated’

No UK Int Update so far today about the Ukraine invasion.

one suspects they may have additional duties/issues to deal with today

RIA Novosti denied any Ukraine advances yesterday. Said they only took a few peripheral villages and fields are littered with Ukrainian corpses. That Balakleya and Shevchenko is still under Russian control. Then in the next paragraph they started talking about more reserves being on their way 🤔

There was a separate article about the reserves. The comments were hillarious, in the spirit of the meme below, asking "who's reserves?" 😂

@MissConductUS That did seem an odd comment. Perhaps someone in the Kyiv INdependent misunderstood something.

I've found an odd little Telegram channel that gives ... apparently .... reports of Putin's military meetings, with video. I'm deeply suspicious of it. If you do take it on face value though, it claims at least two generals have said to Putin's face that the special operation is a disaster and today's general said "You lost Vladimir Vladimirovich!"

Apparently (if it's true at all) it didn't go down well so his life is probably measured by the number of windows he passes.

Whose even

I was listening to Arestovych yesterday and he said that one of the reasons for such fast Ukraine advance was that the front line is so long, that Russian defence is very thinly spread all the way along it. However, if you breach that line, there's hardly anyone there. He said there are places where if you crossed the front line, you'd be able to reach Russian border without meeting a single Russian officer. Obviously there are defences in tactical places, like Kupyansk or Izyum, but not in smaller villages. He did say there are second lines of defence and the like in Kherson, because they were preparing for it, but they were completely unprepared here.

I have been thinking about that a bit. Not having a military background I have no experience of what invading/occupying actually means in terms of deployment of manpower and equipment, or logistics. But logically areas under being under enemy control can't possibly mean that there are soldiers everywhere, especially with an active front line. My knowledge of WW2 occupied areas is a bit hazy but presumably controlling an occupied area is all about administrative control/local police force/collaborators, backed up by your army/secret services. Hence the need for the Russians to get their administration/"education"/referendum etc set up in those areas.

@Ijsbear Thank you for your news round up this morning.

The self-proclaimed “officials” of the occupied area of the Kharkiv region say they are going to take all children and women from the occupied Kupiansk and Izium districts

I wonder whether this is altruistic, on the grounds that the districts where most of them live will be too dangerous, or whether it is a taunt and a threat? Either way, it is extremely worrying.

@MissConductUS Today 09:52
Thank you for finding the source, The Hill, for that information regarding the exhaustion of Ukrainian troops: glad to see that this was not actually said there.

@OwlsDance Today 11:06
Mixed messages indeed!

That is a hilarious cartoon about the ‘reserves’.

@terrywynne · Today 10:50

No UK Int Update so far today about the Ukraine invasion.

one suspects they may have additional duties/issues to deal with today

For those not born or living in the U.K. during the last 70 years it may be difficult to see that there is more link to feelings over the Queen’s death and the Russian invasion of Ukraine than at first may be apparent.

She was highly symbolic of an attitude of resistance, resilience, and individual identity that some may see as being an illusion but which is nevertheless important in the context of this war and sympathy for UKraine.

Reports that Ukr is already in the outskirts of Kupyansk. If they can take it, and it's looking good, it really affects Russian ground lines of communication.

A very cagy report of successes near Kharkiv and at least 15 Russian soldiers have been caught putting civilian clothes on and trying to melt away.

I shall not quickly forget the Queen having blue and yellow flowers in a vase behind them when she met with Mr Trudeau in early March, and quietly wearing a blue hat with yellow decoration for the opening of parliament two days later. I think there was also a hat which had appeared before and been all yellow, but suddenly sprouted blue flowers.

It seemed surprisingly clear where her sympathies lay.

The Russians have never defended against a modern army trained and equipped to wage maneuver warfare, a doctrine developed in the US to correct deficiencies in American strategy revealed in Vietnam.

Maneuver Warfare

The UAF will bypass Russia's secondary defenses whenever possible and continue to encircle Russian forces and degrade their logistics, command and control.

Haha yes! I'm a republican with no particular respect for her or the institution, but fair fucks to her on that one. Fingers crossed Putin doesn't outlive her for long.

Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 AT IAPonomarenko
“Kupyansk”
Good lord, what’s going on.

RTB: Well they are at the outskirts at least and don't look too troubled from the photo...
Railroads are Russia's primary means of reinforcing:

Rhys Hole AT rhyshalliwell
Explain to the kids at home why this is a good thing.

Jakob Tarras Ericsson AT JakobTarras
In short, it's the transportation hub vital for the entire Donbas region.

If it's liberated, Russia lose all capacity to reignforce an resupply their own forces.

And then they are quite deep in the s*

(Apologies I've not been around for a while on this thread. This one is a significant shift and worth pointing out, in the midst of the media blackout in the UK).