Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

Clever strategy by Ukrainian forces, and chimes with other reports:

WSJ: Russia has roughly 20,000 troops in and around Kherson, Western officials estimate, cautioning the figure isn’t precise. Trapping them could potentially force a surrender, allow Ukraine to decimate them or force them to flee. Whatever happens, Ukraine hopes to retake Kherson without having to engage in bloody street fighting.

Ijsbear's post below:

These figures are very, very much guesstimates, of possible numbers of Russian frontline soldiers in the various areas:

20k Kherson, 10k Belgorod, Izyum 5k, Zap 10k, Luganda & Donbasia 15k
Ru pulled quite a lot of troops into Kherson who are now more or less cut off.
Some of the trained people seem to think that in fact the Ukrainian Armed Forces won't actively try to retake the city but to attrit them down until they are less effective or surrender. That would be a really significant loss for Russia.

Truss new PM. God help us.

@OwlsDance exactly my thoughts

@OwlsDance Oh, fantastic🙄

Casualties are significantly increasing though on Ukraine side according to contacts in Odesa. He is buying pyjamas and toiletries of all things for the hospitals as they are running low. We are about to set up a small respite centre for the winter season where soldiers can spend a couple of nights in a warm clean bed, hot shower, meals and basic medical help. Just ten at a time but every night so we can help many each month.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong thanks for providing respite for the casualties on the Ukraine side. How can I support this effort? Is it the same JustGiving link as previous?

Hi @blueshoes thankyou you are very kind. That link has now expired. I will likely create a new platform just before we open in November and I can direct you nearer the time if you'd like.

⚡️The Biden Administration is arming Ukraine with weapons that can do serious damage to Russian forces, and, unlike early in the war, the U.S. officials are no longer concerned about Moscow's response — The Hill

📍 A suicide bomber detonated himself at the gates of the Russian embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan
According to preliminary reports, the man blew himself up while he was in line for visas when a Russian diplomat came out to announce the lists.

🔗 Today, as a result of a fire caused by shelling, the last line connecting the ZNPP with the Ukrainian energy system was disconnected
As a result, power unit No. 6, which currently supplies ZNPP's own needs, was disconnected from the grid, Energoatom reports.

👥 Zelensky held an hour and a half conversation with Macron
During the conversation, the presidents exchanged assessments of the results of the IAEA mission at the ZNPP, and also discussed the general situation at the front.
Later, the French leader said that the only way to restore the safety of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was the withdrawal of Russian troops.

⚡️Ukraine signed a number of documents and received access to funding for digital projects under the EU Digital Europe program for €6 billion.

Please do. I'm so grateful that you do this.

Same here @Hillsmakeyoustrong do forward the link what it is ready.

@Ijsbear thanks for the key takeaways.

The Biden Administration is arming Ukraine with weapons that can do serious damage to Russian forces, and, unlike early in the war, the U.S. officials are no longer concerned about Moscow's response — The Hill

This made me happy so I went and looked for the link:

thehill.com/policy/international/3627782-why-the-us-is-becoming-more-brazen-with-its-ukraine-support/

Here's an interesting report that Russian troops in Kherson are rioting and refusing to fight over the lack of supplies, including water.

Russian Soldiers Riot, Refuse To Fight Over Lack of Supplies

And there's this, which concludes that Russian forces have reached culmination, a state in which they can no longer conduct significant offensive operations.

Ukraine Update: Russia culminates, Ukraine advances on all fronts

So supplies are low to nonexistent, contract soldiers refuse to renew and keep fighting, and front line units are reinforced with "troops" with no combat experience and minimal training. In other words, the SMO continues to go according to plan. 😏

@MissConductUS thanks for the links. Things are moving in the right direction. I am trying not to get too excited but am cautiously optimistic for Ukraine. Keeping the faith.

Over 400k people left Russia this year, double from same period last year (according to BBC Russia)

Russia is never going to run out of shells - see point about North Korea below. One wonders about the quality but even so.

Over 50,000k Ru soldiers killed now.

ISW Key Takeaways

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is tangibly degrading Russian logistics and administrative capabilities in occupied southern Ukraine.

Putin publicly praised DNR and LNR forces (and denigrated the Russian military) on September 5, likely to motivate proxy recruitment and reframe Russian coverage of the war.

Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence regarding the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive but reported on the further destruction of Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Central Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks east of Siversk, northeast and south of Bakhmut, and along the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian special forces conducted a limited operation against a Russian FSB base in the Enerhodar area.

Power unit No. 6 of the ZNPP became disconnected from the Ukrainian power grid.

Russian authorities continue to seek unconventional sources of combat power and are increasingly turning to ill and infirm individuals.

Occupation authorities set a 1.25 ruble/1 hryvnia exchange rate in Zaporizhia Oblast in order to facilitate the economic integration of occupied Zaporizhia into the Russian Federation.

+++

Defence Secretary BWallaceMP will head to Germany this week to discuss longer term international funding for Ukraine.

Zelensky: "4 months ago, we launched UNITED24 @u24govua special fundraising platform to unite the world around our fight for freedom. Thanks to the contributions of people from 110 countries around the world, we managed to accumulate almost 200 million dollars in aid to Ukraine"
"today I especially want to thank the warriors of one of our rocket artillery brigades, who with their accurate fire destroyed the very Russian depot from which the occupiers took S-300 missiles to bomb Kharkiv. MLRS is a good thing. Thank you, our heroes!"

Russia is still getting military-use chips via shell companies, despite them being sanctioned. (they are dual use, so sold for civilian purposed but then used in military)

⚠️ The Large Hadron Collider may stop due to the energy crisis – WSJ ( :( )

⚡️IAEA to publish report on situation at Zaporizhzhia plant on Sept. 6.

⚡️EU to propose additional 5 billion euros in macro-financial assistance to Ukraine.

EU urges Ukraine to ratify Rome Statute. The Rome Statue is the agreement that established the International Criminal Court. Ukraine is a signatory but has not ratified the agreement.

⚡️Germany to temporarily halt phase-out of 2 nuclear power plants.

New York Times: US intelligence reports Russia is buying artillery from North Korea.
According to newly declassified American intelligence, North Korea is selling artillery shells and rockets by the millions to Russia, the New York Times reports.
Together with Iran’s shipment of drones to Russia, U.S. officials consider both moves as signs that sanctions are affecting Russia’s ability to obtain arms. ['millions'!!]

⚡️Russia has earned at least 158 billion euros in energy exports since start of full-scale invasion.
The Finnish research center reports that the EU is Russia’s largest fossil fuel importer, accounting for 54% of Russian exports worth approximately 85 billion euros.

⚡️Ukraine's military: Russian forces place equipment in churches, kindergartens.
In Kherson Oblast, Russian troops have placed military equipment in kindergartens in the Verkhnii Rohachyk settlement as well as in churches in the village of Chervonyi Mayak, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
[hello Amnesty, any comments?]

[Note high levels of personnel and equipment losses again]

🔶 Gazprom stated that the state of the last Nord Stream 1 engine, which failed, does not meet the industrial safety requirements of the Russian Federation

📈 Gas prices in Europe increased by 30% at the opening of trading amid the shutdown of Nord Stream-1

📍 The occupation authorities in Donetsk forcefully "discharge" sick men from hospitals to "mobilize" them — General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Men of conscription age with various diseases or injuries, including those wounded during hostilities, who are undergoing treatment, are subject to such discharges.

📢 The Russian government presented a report on the impact of sanctions on the economy, its authors predicted a recession until 2030
According to Bloomberg, on August 30, the report, which had been in preparation for several months, was presented at a closed meeting of senior officials.

❗️ President Vladimir Putin approved a new foreign policy doctrine based on the concept of the "Russian world" to justify foreign intervention in support of the Russian-speaking population – Reuters
The 31-page "Humanitarian Policy", published more than six months after the start of the war in Ukraine, states that the Russian Federation must "protect, preserve and promote the traditions and ideals of the Russian world."
The new policy states that the Russian Federation should expand cooperation with the Slavic peoples, China and India and further strengthen ties with the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa.

📣 Joe Biden intends to take all necessary steps to strengthen energy supply and reduce energy prices in the world, said White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, commenting on the decision of OPEC+ to reduce the quota on oil production by 100 thousand barrels per day in October

🚴‍♂️ Russian military flee the shelling on stolen bicycles
The relevant video was shared in the Ukrainian “Come Back Alive” Foundation. [I wonder if there's Dutch blood in that one]

DM me too, when you do.

Thanks guys. I will DM you in the next few weeks 🙏

!!!!

⚡️ Governor: Ukrainian forces ‘gain foothold’ in Luhansk Oblast.

Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks and made small advances in the region.

Haidai did not provide details.

[This is significant as Luhansk was entirely occupied by the Russians.
Donetsk is not wholly taken but Luhansk was, I think, taken as defeated.

For the Ukrainian forces to be able to get a foothold is a significant psychological step]

@Ijsbear thanks for the key takeaways.

Russia is never going to run out of shells - see point about North Korea below. One wonders about the quality but even so.

Not great. Hopefully Russia will also have problems getting them to the frontlines.

Russia is still getting military-use chips via shell companies, despite them being sanctioned. (they are dual use, so sold for civilian purposed but then used in military)

This is a concern. Really hard to know what is behind the ownership of shell companies. Probably incorporated in jurisdictions which are not transparent and with multiple layers of ownership.

⚠️ The Large Hadron Collider may stop due to the energy crisis – WSJ ( :( )

That's sad. Putin has halted scientific progress.

📍 The occupation authorities in Donetsk forcefully "discharge" sick men from hospitals to "mobilize" them — General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Men of conscription age with various diseases or injuries, including those wounded during hostilities, who are undergoing treatment, are subject to such discharges.

This is awful. What use could those men be on the battlefield? No only will they have no fight, they are unable to fight.

Good news. Baby steps. It's happening. It will be a good morale boost, just as the recent explosions in Crimea were.

Interesting piece by Charles Parton on the CCP and Taiwan. Well worth a read in current climate: www.geostrategy.org.uk/research/taiwan-invasion-is-not-likely-but-deterrence-remains-vital/

Makes the following point re Xi and Putin which reminds me of a discussion we had here not long ago:

"Finally, some argue that leaders do not always act logically. They cite a parallel with Vladimir Putin, the Russian President. But there are crucial differences. Russia is declining; the PRC is not. Putin is more of an autocrat than Xi, who for all his power must still take account of other CCP leaders. Whether or not Xi’s decision making has always been correct, it has at least a logic, a rationality. Ultimately that logic is based on the uncompromising need to survive in power. Invading Taiwan is an unnecessary risk."

I have done quite a bit of reading into this in the last few months and I honestly think that the paragraph you quote is quite badly informed. Russia does not appear to be declining. I have seen very little to indicate any lack of logic and in relation to autocracy it doesn't sound as though the author knows much about how decision making is done in the Russian government. My issue with these articles is that it isn't always made clear what is based on fact and what is based on "maybe".

In relation to those country's attitudes towards security and trade, India, Russia, China have said that they favour a multipolar world, where there many different nations who are separate nations but work together in relation to issues such as energy and biodiversity, and also trade as suits their own needs. They have criticised the US for trying to dominate. It is said that certain western power groups have indicated that they support a unipolar world, an increasingly federalised world with one power group, as opposed to a multipolar world.

That's it, isn't it? Xi's decision making has a logic that includes extending China's influence but he seems fundamentally more in touch with the various elements that need balancing to keep a society doing well. And he does care about China doing well.

Russia's Putin seems only motivated by emotion: resentment and aggressiveness. He seems only to care about winning over others, not for his own people in any way. His 'logical arguments' seem built on that aggression and resentment, without genuine rationality or a sense of proportion.

The occupation authorities in Donetsk forcefully "discharge" sick men from hospitals to "mobilize" them — General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Men of conscription age with various diseases or injuries, including those wounded during hostilities, who are undergoing treatment, are subject to such discharges.

This is saying that Armed Forces of Ukraine are discharging men in Donetsk, presumably the parts of Donetsk still under Ukraine control? I saw a youtube video made by Ukrainians in which they said that men being sent to the front now were not trained or able, this was about a month ago.

Russia does not appear to be declining.

It does, you know.

The economic problems are huge and thanks to the war getting worse. The military isn't in so much of a decline as a crashing, splatting disaster. World respect has plummeted for their military.

Their life expectancy is shit, the rich-poor divide is gigantic and previously reasonable relations with the West - which covers 1/3 of the globe and many of the richest countries - have suddenly plummeted as fast as a lead balloon released from 27,000 feet up.

CHina in contrast is blooming, despite their not-inconsiderable challenges.

I don't see how you can possibly look at Russia's economic, military, political and social situation now compared to 8 months ago and say "they don't appear to be declining".

This is saying that Armed Forces of Ukraine are discharging men in Donetsk, presumably the parts of Donetsk still under Ukraine control? I saw a youtube video made by Ukrainians in which they said that men being sent to the front now were not trained or able, this was about a month ago.

No. The occupation authorities. That's Russia.

You're a shill aren't you.