Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

Large Russian losses today; 450 dead, 1 plane, 1 helicopter (friendly fire, they think) 27APVs, 13 arty etc

Two significant articles on China advocating for the cool head approach. I hope this is the path taken going forward.

www.noemamag.com/why-the-world-needs-china-to-be-pragmatic-again

www.noemamag.com/the-clash-of-two-gilded-ages

Thread summarising a paywalled article that explains the joint military drills discussed yesterday: twitter.com/statesmanworld/status/1566003394879406083?s=21&t=G5BRk-5RJKKnDzS9n9yGHw

@Ijsbear thanks for the key takeaways

One of the main grievances from deployed Russian soldiers is not getting paid. I understand it is harder to provide uniform, arms and rations but pay? I thought Russia has lots of rubles from sale of oil and gas. If Russia are having so much trouble recruiting even offering high salaries, what about paying those soldiers who are actually out there doing the dirty work and dying, so that word does not get back and hurt recruitment further.

Mind you, I am not unhappy about how much a shower Russia is making of recruitment and finding bodies to throw into its meat grinder. Loss of 450 Russian soldiers in one day is really bad.

📣 Modelling the enemy vehicle movement, blocked Kerch bridge and controlling occupation logistics
Nataliia Humeniuk, head of the press center of OC "South", spoke about the situation in the south of Ukraine:
• The occupying troops of the russian Federation model the collection of equipment in the Kherson region in order to boost the morale of their demoralized soldiers.
• The invaders blocked the Kerch bridge as they used it to take away families and looted goods, as well as their reserves.
• The defense forces constantly hit ammunition and equipment transported by the occupiers to the front line. Our soldiers see and control the logistics component of the enemy.
• The Armed Forces are now conducting positional battles, and the front line itself is "mobile"

I wonder what 'model' means?

I am guessing Ukraine forces want to take out the Kerch Bridge eventually once they are close enough.

@MagicFox , thanks for linking to this article.

www.noemamag.com/why-the-world-needs-china-to-be-pragmatic-again

Fascinating article which explains how China moved from pragmatism under Deng Xiaoping to dogma under Xi Jinping. Deng was about keeping your head down and getting on with it (a somewhat Chinese cultural trait) to Xi's more confident 'The Chinese Dream' grand slogan.

Coinciding with Xi's ascent, relations between US and China soured under Trump who adopted an openly hawkish policy toward China. Biden, whilst more moderate, frames U.S.-China competition as a moral battle between “democracy” and “autocracy” — which, from China's point of view, means the two sides are implacably opposed.

How China chooses to act on the war in Ukraine could either reset U.S.-China relations in a positive direction or set the two nations on an accelerated collision course. In the latter scenario, no nation will win; everyone will lose.

The article ends by saying saving the world calls for pragmatism in Beijing and empathy in Washington.

Found one piece of good news today. The Yuriev Plant Production Institute in Kharkiv is still standing after the shelling in May.

There were initial fears the whole seed bank might have been lost, but in fact what was hit was a building containing a working seed collection, not the seed bank itself.

The most recent reports are from Aug, so as of then the seed bank was still intact (though of course at risk).

www.euronews.com/green/2022/08/06/ukraines-national-seed-bank-is-still-standing-but-could-be-lost-forever-warn-scientists

european-seed.com/2022/06/the-devastation-of-ukraines-yuriev-plant-production-institute/

Perking, thank you very much for that. I was outraged by the original reporting, especially given the lengths to which Russians in a previous era had gone to trying to preserve a seed-bank.

Let's all cross our fingers in unison that it escapes destruction.

That is good news!!

Ukrainian Bayraktar drones are back in the fight, a strong indication that the Russian air defenses are no longer effective.

Ukraine Claims Drone Strikes Destroyed Russian Military Equipment

By Matthew Luxmoore
Updated Sept. 3, 2022 3:15 pm ET

ODESSA, Ukraine—Ukraine claimed fresh military success as it pushes to shift the balance on the battlefield and force Russia out of areas it has occupied for months.

Ukraine’s armed forces said on Saturday that two Bayraktar TB-2 drones it operates had destroyed close to $26.5 million worth of Russian military equipment between Wednesday and Friday, bolstering earlier claims that much of Russia’s air defenses in occupied parts of the country’s south and east have been rendered inoperable by Ukrainian attacks.

Russia, meanwhile, said that it successfully targeted ammunition depots in the south of Ukraine and killed 230 Ukrainian personnel since Ukraine began its offensive in parts of the south.

Neither claim has been independently verified, but it comes amid fierce fighting in and around the Kherson region of southern Ukraine. Ukrainian officials said the battles have yielded breakthroughs and the recapture of some villages. Russia says the Ukrainian offensive has failed.

Officially, Ukraine has continued to maintain a high level of operational secrecy over the military moves, issuing few details about the course of the campaign and restricting journalists’ access to the front line. Russian military bloggers have seized on the dearth of official information from Kyiv to push the Kremlin narrative that the push to retake territories held by Russia is a nonstarter.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a vague assessment about the course of fighting in his daily video address on Friday evening. The comments came following a meeting with security officials including the head of the armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny.

“I think you all understand what the main questions are. Certain decisions have also been made,” he said. “I think we will all see them.”

In Moscow, former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev was laid to rest Saturday in a subdued farewell ceremony, attended by several foreign dignitaries including U.S. ambassador to Russia, John Sullivan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin didn’t attend Saturday’s farewell ceremony for the former Soviet leader due to his busy work schedule, the Kremlin said.

Mr. Putin had criticized Mr. Gorbachev for failing to secure written security guarantees from the West preventing the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Mr. Putin said that expansion threatens Russia’s national security, and he has used it to justify the invasion of Ukraine.

Off the battlefield, Russia and Ukraine’s western allies continue to engage in economic warfare.

Ukraine endorsed a plan to cap the price of Russian oil on global markets in a bid to limit Russia’s revenue from sales, with Kyiv arguing that it could play a key role in halting Moscow’s military advance.

The Group of Seven wealthy nations rolled out the plan on Friday, saying they would move to ban the insurance and financing of shipments of Russian oil and petroleum products unless they are sold under a set price cap.

The group, which includes the U.S. and U.K., is hoping to leverage control over the financing and insurance of global shipping to force Russia to comply or face the possibility of being unable to ship its oil. Over 90% of the world’s ships are insured through a London-based association of insurers, according to Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.

Ukraine’s Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko described the plan on Saturday as “yet another nail in the coffin of Russia’s war economy.”

“The unconditional extension and expansion of restrictions on the sale of Russian fossil fuels will finally stop the terrorist state,” he wrote in a statement posted to Facebook.

Ukrainian officials have pushed for Western countries to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism for attacks that have killed scores of civilians throughout Ukraine. Moscow has denied targeting civilians.

Russia has said countries imposing a cap wouldn’t receive any Russian oil.

Hours after the price-cap plan was announced Friday, Kremlin-controlled energy company Gazprom PJSC said it would suspend supplies of gas to Germany via the Nord Stream natural-gas pipeline until further notice.

Gazprom said it had found a technical fault during maintenance of the pipeline.
Gazprom, whose headquarters are in St. Petersburg, said it would suspend supplies of natural gas to Germany via the Nord Stream pipeline.

⚡️ General Staff: Russia increasingly uses Soviet S-300 air defense systems amid missile shortages.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Sept. 4 that, due to a shortage of high-precision weapons, Russia has resorted to launching over 500 of the less accurate S-300 systems thus far.
Ukrainian forces also repelled Russian attacks near Bohorodychne, Pasika, Dolyna, Bakhmut, Pokrovske, Bakhmutske, Pisky, and Pervomaiske.

⚡️ Official: Ukraine shoots down up to 70% of Russian missiles.
Ukrainian aircraft and anti-aircraft defense systems are downing between 50-70% of Russian missiles, reports ArmyInform news agency, citing Kyiv Military Administration head Major General Mykola Zhyrnov.
Zhyrnov said the main limitation is an insufficient number of air defense and radar systems.

⚡️ Russian independent media: Video appears to show Russia launching rockets from Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
The Insider published a video from the night of Sept. 2 that appears to show a Russian MLRS launching rockets from near the power plant.
The Kyiv Independent can not independently confirm the footage.

⚡️ Mayor: Russian shelling destroys grain elevator in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast.
According to Ochakiv Deputy Mayor Oleksii Vaskov, several thousand tons of grain were destroyed by Russian shelling in the coastal village.

⚡️Official: Russian military blocks humanitarian aid to occupied Enerhodar.
The city's mayor, Dmytro Orlov, said Russians have been blocking humanitarian aid to Enerhodar for the second day in a row, turning the trucks back and claiming the city's residents don't need anything. The cargo included diapers for children and bedridden adults, hygiene kits for families with children and people with disabilities, and food for the most vulnerable.

⚡️Mayor: Russian troops turn 5 Melitopol schools into military bases.
Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said on Sept. 4 that other schools in Russian-occupied Melitopol are guarded by military personnel who placed metal detectors at their entrance. [the implication is that the school are still operating as schools with kids in]

⚡️White House rules out complete visa ban for Russians.

⚡️Ukraine returned nearly 600 people from Russian captivity including about 100 civilians, the rest are military personnel.
Smyrnov added that Russia reports it had forcibly kidnapped about 3 million Ukrainians from the occupied regions, including 600,000 children.

⚡️ Kremlin blames Europe for the fact that Russia cuts gas exports.
Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the reason why the Russian energy monopoly Gazprom completely stopped gas supplies via the Nord Stream pipeline is that Europe refused to carry out maintenance of the company's equipment.

💬 President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on a telephone conversation with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on Sunday covering
the earliest possible allocation of the next EU macro-finance tranche. Zelensky also emphasized the need to prepare the 8th sanctions package, which should also include a ban on issuing visas for the Russian Federation citizens.
They also coordinated steps to limit Russia's excess profits from oil and gas sales.

📊 The World Bank has approved 70 loans, totaling more than $14.4 billion and €2.1 billion over 30 years of cooperation with Ukraine, of which $11.8 billion and €1.2 billion have been received so far

❌Russia was deprived of the right to host the 2023 World Shooting Championship
The tournament was moved to Azerbaijan.

🌾The largest caravan with Ukrainian grain – 13 ships – left the ports of Odesa, the Ministry of Infrastructure reported

⚡️Denmark and Germany plan to build an "energy island" to reduce dependence on Russian gas – Bloomberg
According to the agency, Bornholm Energy Island will connect several wind farms and distribute the energy they produce between the two countries.

❌$100 billion of Russian reserves invested in the Chinese yuan are trapped, writes Bloomberg
Russia has invested 17.1% of its reserves in the Chinese yuan in an effort to minimize the effects of sanctions and diversify investments, but these funds have been trapped, together with the $640 billion that Western countries have frozen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine

⚡️Russian invaders in Mariupol are removing the Z-swastika from their vehicles, according to Ukrainian resistance representatives in the city

🤝Germany confirmed the need to increase the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine, said the head of the Ukrainian government Denys Shmyhal after a meeting with Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz

📲The invaders leaked the coordinates of their military base to Ukrainian hackers, as they thought they were communicating with beautiful women
Ukrainian hackers reportedly used fake Facebook and Russian social media profiles of attractive women and tricked the occupiers into sending them photos, which were later geolocated and sent to the Ukrainian military. A few days later, the base was destroyed by Ukrainian artillery. [ahahahahahaha!]

These figures are very, very much guesstimates, of possible numbers of Russian frontline soldiers in the various areas:

20k Kherson, 10k Belgorod, Izyum 5k, Zap 10k, Luganda & Donbasia 15k

Ru pulled quite a lot of troops into Kherson who are now more or less cut off.
Some of the trained people seem to think that in fact the Ukrainian Armed Forces won't actively try to retake the city but to attrit them down until they are less effective or surrender. That would be a really significant loss for Russia.

The new 3rd corps that's been sent into Ukraine is possibly 10k at the most, and not well trained.

Ukraine NOW
@UkraineNowMedia
·
1h
General Staff: In the Donetsk region, the invaders for the first time since the start of a full-scale invasion called for a ceasefire.
The invaders asked for a few hours of silence in order to collect the bodies of the killed "brothers in arms".

I wonder if it was a cover for something else. From all the stories the Russians simply don't care about dead bodies, their own or Ukrainian.

Wonder what this could be.

Hopefully it is get the white flags out.

There are hints from Ukraine that their offensive is continuing.

Firstly, UA reported about the enemy taking "defensive actions" in Kherson region. Secondly, they reported that Russians were shelling two villages that were previously occupied by them.

This is according to Russian BBC.

A spokesperson says that Putin is ready to negotiate.

twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1566446813422419969

That's embarrasing.

📲The invaders leaked the coordinates of their military base to Ukrainian hackers, as they thought they were communicating with beautiful women
Ukrainian hackers reportedly used fake Facebook and Russian social media profiles of attractive women and tricked the occupiers into sending them photos, which were later geolocated and sent to the Ukrainian military. A few days later, the base was destroyed by Ukrainian artillery. [ahahahahahaha!]

This made me laugh

Me too. An internet version of the honey trap. "Ooh, Yuri, what big muscles you have..."

😂

Oh that is brilliant!

Yeah I doubt they're ready to agree to Ukraines terms though.

flipping ace isn't it!

Young men don't change :D

+++

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces liberated two unnamed settlements in southern Ukraine and one settlement in Donetsk Oblast. ISW has independently confirmed the liberation of the settlement in Donetsk Oblast and one of the settlements in Kherson Oblast.

Geolocated footage shows Russian forces firing MLRS rounds from positions on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), ammunition depots, and key positions to exhaust Russian forces and restrain Russian combat power.

The Ukrainian liberation of Vysokopillya ignited critical discussions among some Russian milbloggers while the Russian Defense Ministry maintained that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct “unsuccessful attempts” to advance.

Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 127th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps personnel reportedly refused to fight due to a lack of supplies.

Ukrainian forces regained territory on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City.

Russian forces are reportedly moving military assets to areas situated along major ground lines of communication (GLOCS) in rear areas in Zaporizhia Oblast.

more: The Ukrainian counteroffensive is making verifiable progress in the south and the east. Ukrainian forces are advancing along several axes in western Kherson Oblast and have secured territory across the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast. The pace of the counteroffensive will likely change dramatically from day to day as Ukrainian forces work to starve the Russians of necessary supplies, disrupt their command and control, and weaken their morale even as counteroffensive ground assaults continue.

+++

⚡️ Energy Ministry: Over 600,000 Ukrainians remain without power.
According to the ministry, 235,700 Ukrainians have also been left without gas due to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

⚡️ Russian military unit in southern Ukraine refuses to fight.
Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported on Sept. 5 that the Russian 127th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps refused to perform their duties due to a lack of support and poor conditions, including a lack of water.

🔎Experts examined the Russian missile
“At best, it’s the late 1990s or mid-2000s,” says Arsenio Menendez, a NASA contractor who recreates weapon components as a hobby after studying photographs taken by Russian military electronics researchers. "It's basically the equivalent of an Xbox 360 game console, and it looks like it's open to anyone who wants to take it apart and build their own copy."

⚡️In autumn, a conference on the restoration of Ukraine will be held in Germany, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said after a meeting with Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz

⚡️ The enemy asked for a short ceasefire
On the hottest sector of the front in the Donetsk region, for the first time since the beginning of a full-scale invasion, the enemy declared a truce for several hours in order to collect the corpses.

❌ The Russian invaders banned the import of any essential goods into the temporarily occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region including vital medicines and hygiene products for children and adults

❌ The Russian invaders forbid residents of the Kherson region to cross the Dnipro River and restrict their movement amid counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine — report from the General Staff

📌 The front line is very wide and runs along 2,500 kilometers of Ukrainian land, 1,300 of which are active combat operations

Really good news this morning. Russian propaganda will be working overtime thinking what to say.

I'm trying to keep my feet on the ground and not expect too much. The ISW was clear that the pace of change will change day to day.

However it's not easy to keep m'self being cautious:
It seems that Putin is running the campaign himself (as a Twitter contact said he's fired 50% of the generals since the war started!) so I suspect we will see some more extremely odd decisions. From the very-much-guesstimate figures 1/3 of the active Russian frontline troops are in Kherson Oblast. It's a very long front line to hold so this weakens everything else. Not only that but the 20k Kherson troops are cut off from military supplies and will find it very hard to retreat. The ISW thinks the Ru campaign has run out of steam and the Ukrainians are starting to be able to use the troops that went sent to the West for training, plus they are playing this extremely cleverly.

It's not looking very good for the Russians

Has there been any more on this?

Ukraine made a very obvious trap and Russia went for it - mean the Kherson region, with all the logistical problems. When Russia started shifting the troops over there, a lot of people thought how come Ukraine is not hitting them, and allowing them to move. But it was a clever move, as it means the biggest mass of Russian troops is in the most disadvantaged position on the whole front, and also less troops everywhere else.