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Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

999 replies

MagicFox · 28/08/2022 09:05

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
91
Ijsbear · 03/09/2022 18:45

Natsku · 03/09/2022 16:18

I'm glad two from the IAEA will be staying there. Just hope nothing happens to them.

Yes, I am concerned too.

@Digita As far as I can see, it looks more worrying than it is.

Mostly it's for show.

In the longer term there is reason for worry as China is far more dangerous than Russia imo, except for the nuclear thing, and it is demonizing the US and West. Totalitarian regimes need someone to hate; it helps defuse frustrated citizens from getting angry at their own country's govt. China is also powerful and very ruthless and trying to steal all the technical and electronic advances it can.

But it's got big economic problems and it values stability > all.

So the very high chance is that nothing is going to happen at all now - I suspect the worst of the Taiwan crisis is probably past for this moment (It will be a recurrent high-explosive problem for a long time)

China also resents the West's previous bad treatment of itself, which is a real cause of rancour.

But it also depends on the West for trade and it's very unlikely to unsettle that at this moment.

I don't think that China is going to openly enter the Ukraine war. There are rumours it is supporting Russia with drones and perhaps info, but it's unlikely to really start shooting in anger.

Digita · 03/09/2022 18:46

MissConductUS · 03/09/2022 18:38

@Digita , those games are held every four years

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_2018

and are primarily intended as a show of strength rather than actual training for war.

Is it strange that China and India are joining in?

Are they not neutral?

I would have expected a boycott tbh

Digita · 03/09/2022 18:49

@IjsbearChina also resents the West's previous bad treatment of itself, which is a real cause of rancour.

What is the claimed bad treatment? How far back does the grievance go?

Digita · 03/09/2022 18:50

Thanks both. Btw. Very informative and reassuring.

hbdgwalls · 03/09/2022 18:53

Anyone have any take on Kadyrov's announcement? I'm very confused as to the motive.
Someone on Twitter said he was due to develop 'window cancer' very shortly.

katem98 · 03/09/2022 18:55

@hbdgwalls Must've missed this... what was said?

MissConductUS · 03/09/2022 18:58

Digita · 03/09/2022 18:46

Is it strange that China and India are joining in?

Are they not neutral?

I would have expected a boycott tbh

China and India are both major purchasers of Russian military equipment, so politically independent, but intertwined militarily.

hbdgwalls · 03/09/2022 18:59

That he is going to take a long break from the role, before he outstays his welcome, essentially.

twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1566113039576961024?s=21&t=06bYLCRrssCfVpdipTFRIA

Ukraine Invasion: Part 30
katem98 · 03/09/2022 19:03

Thank you @hbdgwalls ! Some of the comments are making me giggle lol.

MissConductUS · 03/09/2022 19:25

Digita · 03/09/2022 18:49

@IjsbearChina also resents the West's previous bad treatment of itself, which is a real cause of rancour.

What is the claimed bad treatment? How far back does the grievance go?

Back to the opium wars at least. They still feel very hard done by from European colonial exploitation:

OwlsDance · 03/09/2022 19:26

God what was that about rubber bum? He's totally losing the plot. I mean, I'm a native speaker and still didn't get it???

hbdgwalls · 03/09/2022 19:35

It was to do with some general of Stalin I forget which. He was called iron or steel bum as he sat for hours plotting the next genocides bit moving.
Rubber bum is used by Putin here as the opposite meaning to that. I.e not being glued to the seat

hbdgwalls · 03/09/2022 19:36

*without moving

newnamenewnew · 03/09/2022 20:02

hbdgwalls · 03/09/2022 19:36

*without moving

The Russian language uses the same word in different contexts, far more so than English, which is why translating is tricky, so the reporter may have got the wrong meaning, but what I think he was saying was that it isn't just a matter of working hard, you have to work productively - along the lines of it is not what you do but how you do it. The parts of the speech I saw were perfectly congruent I think it is was just reported in that way to try to discredit

Ijsbear · 03/09/2022 20:28

Digita · 03/09/2022 18:49

@IjsbearChina also resents the West's previous bad treatment of itself, which is a real cause of rancour.

What is the claimed bad treatment? How far back does the grievance go?

This is the short and not-entirely-readable version, but there's a list at the top of the main points. Not all are to do with the West but the bad feeling runs very deep.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_of_humiliation

China wants respect most of all, at least from what my long-ago studies and my companion's business trips there come up with.

However there is a lot of friction between China and India. Russia sells military equipment to both. I would bet my house that Putin has done his best to inflame tensions between them.

Speculating here but I think that Russia is going to become more and more quietly dependent on China financially. Russia used to be the senior partner in their relationship really, but it's not like that now and Putin's war has weakened Russia in many ways.

People who have travelled to both countries will know more but the general impression I have is that China seems much more successful at having an overall content population than Russia ... perhaps a wrong impression, I don't know. Excepting, of course, the Uighirs.

MagicFox · 03/09/2022 20:34

Relevant piece for this discussion:

"Another Russia Is Possible
The Kremlin Will Eventually Tire of Its Reliance on China
By Dmitri Alperovitch and Sergey Radchenko"

www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/another-russia-possible

OP posts:
Ijsbear · 03/09/2022 20:41

I have two good Chinese friends. One grew up in modern China and one grew up in very much the old tradition of China. The difference in deep cultural assumptions is huge and it's fascinating to observe. The differences are gigantic. One friend has very much a modern outlook, with some differences to mine - the innate respect for older people is much greater than in the society I grew up in, though that wasn't dismissive at all. She has chatted at times that when she came here she found it impossible to cope with the casual way Westerners criticise our governments, and she manages now to see it as not necessarily a bad thing but she still never voices a criticism herself! She has a rather touching faith that governments do the best they can for their people, which is not something I believe any more.

The other friend is an extraordinary woman. Kind, gentle, loving but with backbone. But she grew up in a village where her grandfather was exiled after Mao took power. He was, I think, something like the equivalent of a Duke before that and was wealthy beyond dreams, but lost it all. Her grandmother was never allowed to disagree with him, not ever, but there seems to have been love between them. But the Confucian teachings go very deep that women are lesser than men. She says that men have one mountain in life to conquer - money, and women have a different one - love. She genuinely believes this to the depth of her heart and it is very strange, like when you come across people from other cultures who judge a woman's worth by the number of children they have and think less of you if you don't have any, and think extra more of you if you have boys (it irritates me deeply - far as I'm concerned it's no respect at all, if it's based on the number of boy children you have).

Ijsbear · 03/09/2022 20:43

my old-Chinese friend, her grandfather buried ancient Chinese treasures going back centuries in the grounds of their house, hoping to come back. When they were finally allowed to travel again he went back, but the entire area had been razed and there was no sign of where their house had been .... you wonder just how much irreplaceable treasure had been lost.

newnamenewnew · 03/09/2022 20:49

Ijsbear · 03/09/2022 20:28

This is the short and not-entirely-readable version, but there's a list at the top of the main points. Not all are to do with the West but the bad feeling runs very deep.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_of_humiliation

China wants respect most of all, at least from what my long-ago studies and my companion's business trips there come up with.

However there is a lot of friction between China and India. Russia sells military equipment to both. I would bet my house that Putin has done his best to inflame tensions between them.

Speculating here but I think that Russia is going to become more and more quietly dependent on China financially. Russia used to be the senior partner in their relationship really, but it's not like that now and Putin's war has weakened Russia in many ways.

People who have travelled to both countries will know more but the general impression I have is that China seems much more successful at having an overall content population than Russia ... perhaps a wrong impression, I don't know. Excepting, of course, the Uighirs.

In relation to the west and what is happening now, there are the recent US activities around Taiwan and Pelosi's visit. In relation to diplomacy generally, if you watch interviews conducted by the US press with Chinese officials the officials are frequently accused of lying and cut off half way through sentences, China also made clear unambiguous statements in Feb about what it thought about Russia and Ukraine and consistently said the same thing for a long time, calling for negotiation and diplomacy and offering to be a mediator, yet was constantly misquoted by the western press. Both Truss and Rishi have recently made it clear that if they became PM they would follow the US path in relation to difficult diplomatic relations with China. They didn't say the words "follow the US path" though I don't think.

I agree about the friction with India, it feels as though they work together in some ways but there is insecurity there too though I am also speculating when I say that. I am not sure I agree with the last two paragraphs.

ScrollingLeaves · 03/09/2022 21:39

@Ijsbear · Today 20:43
my old-Chinese friend, her grandfather buried ancient Chinese treasures going back centuries in the grounds of their house, hoping to come back. When they were finally allowed to travel again he went back, but the entire area had been razed and there was no sign of where their house had been .... you wonder just how much irreplaceable treasure had been

That is a haunting story, as is thought of how all traces of lives once lived can be razed and erased.

Ijsbear · 03/09/2022 21:42

@newnamenewnew Russia has the natural resources but not the high -tech ones. Despite some sanctionbusting, it needs China's high tech stuff and I just don't think it will have the clout to negotiate on equal terms.

About the last paragraph fair enough, not travelled to either myself so it's only a vague impression

ScrollingLeaves · 03/09/2022 22:16

@MagicFox · Today 09:21
This is an excellent thread explaining the energy cost situation in the UK:
twitter.com/richardjmurphy/status/1564157639621312512?s=21&t=ut9XjrWiCoCvhSMJxwSkbQ

Thank you for that very informative post. It is shocking to learn how artificially high the prices are across all sources because of a law saying the most expensive source (gas) must always make a profit, and all the cheaper ones’ profit must be kept in line with the most expensive one’s.

Imagine the same logic if, say, meat cost a lot, but needed to continue to make a profit for meat companies. According to this law the price of meat must be increased to maintain profit levels, and in addition cheap vegetable alternatives must also be highly priced. If it meant that in the end it was too expensive for most people to eat at all, why would this practice be continued?

blueshoes · 03/09/2022 22:41

ScrollingLeaves · 03/09/2022 22:16

@MagicFox · Today 09:21
This is an excellent thread explaining the energy cost situation in the UK:
twitter.com/richardjmurphy/status/1564157639621312512?s=21&t=ut9XjrWiCoCvhSMJxwSkbQ

Thank you for that very informative post. It is shocking to learn how artificially high the prices are across all sources because of a law saying the most expensive source (gas) must always make a profit, and all the cheaper ones’ profit must be kept in line with the most expensive one’s.

Imagine the same logic if, say, meat cost a lot, but needed to continue to make a profit for meat companies. According to this law the price of meat must be increased to maintain profit levels, and in addition cheap vegetable alternatives must also be highly priced. If it meant that in the end it was too expensive for most people to eat at all, why would this practice be continued?

It is true that the way Ofgem regulates the price is the reason why energy costs are so high in the UK? I hope I am reading Richard Murphy's twitter thread correctly. If so, it would be a absolute scandal. Mind you, energy costs are high throughout Europe.

My concern about needlessly and artificially high energy costs in UK, apart from the impact on my wallet and general hardship, is that it erodes the support for the Ukraine war amongst the population who are suffering.

OwlsDance · 04/09/2022 07:54

China is very happy to sell stuff to Russia but hell will freeze over before they shared any of their technologies. They won't let anyone into their domestic market, so if Russia does produce anything, it won't benefit from vast Chinese market. It's a very much one sided relationship.

What is more, Russia needs to weaken Ruble, and they can't do it effectively without currency intervention, so they'll be buying lots of Renminbi. So further dependency.

Ijsbear · 04/09/2022 08:08

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian officials directly stated that the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive is a methodical operation to intentionally degrade Russian forces and logistics in the south, rather than one aimed at immediately recapturing large swathes of territory.

The Kremlin may be intensifying efforts to foster self-censorship among Russian milbloggers and war correspondents who are covering the war in Ukraine.

Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces continued positional battles along the Kherson-Mykolaiv frontline and that Ukrainian troops are focusing on striking Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), equipment and manpower concentrations, and logistics nodes along the Southern Axis.

Social media footage shows evidence of effective Ukrainian strikes in western and central Kherson Oblast.

Russian mibloggers continue to claim that Ukrainian forces are fighting in western Kherson Oblast, along the Inhulets River, and in northern Kherson south of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut and north and southwest of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces may be conducting localized attacks along the line of contact in Western Zaporizhia Oblast to disrupt ongoing Russian troop deployments.

Russian authorities continue to generate combat power from recruitment through state-owned enterprises and prisons to circumvent general mobilization.

Russian occupation authorities are increasingly struggling to provide basic services in occupied areas of Ukraine.

+++

🔹The Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, arrived for the farewell ceremony for Mikhail Gorbachev.

🛢 Bloomberg: India has sharply slashed its purchases of russian oil after the visit of US officials
During the last week of August, oil shipments from the russian Federation to Asian customers fell to a minimum since the first month of the war. Russian oil deliveries to India dropped by 40%.

(admittedly I'd be quite strongly wondering if there are other reasons for the drop in purchase rather than US pressure, as implied)

❗️ Russian troops do not allow humanitarian cargo to enter the occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia region, mayor of Energodar

❗️ IAEA: Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant again lost connection to the last main external power line
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant once again lost connection to the last remaining main external power line.
At the same time, the plant continues to supply electricity to the Zaporizhzhia thermal power plant through a reserve line. This reserve line can also provide backup power to the ZNPP if needed.

⚡️ General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The Armed Forces
of Ukraine fought off enemy attacks near seven populated areas in the east

📣 Modelling the enemy vehicle movement, blocked Kerch bridge and controlling occupation logistics
Nataliia Humeniuk, head of the press center of OC "South", spoke about the situation in the south of Ukraine:
• The occupying troops of the russian Federation model the collection of equipment in the Kherson region in order to boost the morale of their demoralized soldiers.
• The invaders blocked the Kerch bridge as they used it to take away families and looted goods, as well as their reserves.
• The defense forces constantly hit ammunition and equipment transported by the occupiers to the front line. Our soldiers see and control the logistics component of the enemy.
• The Armed Forces are now conducting positional battles, and the front line itself is "mobile"

🔺 General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: russian railways must find up to 10,000 volunteers for a short-term contract for the war in Ukraine.

⚡️ Media: Germany pledges $199 million in aid for Ukrainian Internally Displaced Persons.

(Ru losses for yesterday not yet released)

Ukraine Invasion: Part 30
Ukraine Invasion: Part 30