Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

I always wonder how tv repair shops stay in business when u can't recall anyone I've ever heard if getting their tv repaired.

We’ve had ours repaired before. And washing machine.

they may find they are in demand more now

Though they missed off laser tag!

Ah! I'd forgotten laser tag..just had to look it up😉

Independent food businesses. A butcher was sharing how their electricity bill was through the roof. You cannot absorb that kind of cost.

I can't see who you are quoting but why fried chicken bars? They can't fictional sell more chicken than they purchase.

I always thought it was more softplays and nightclubs which were good for money laundering, "sell" a few extra "tickets" but no actual goods exchange hands so very difficult to track or trace.

Very unlikely that HMRC would investigate a business so deeply as to compare the numbers of chicken bits sold against the number bought. It's something they'd have done 30/40 years ago when we had local tax inspectors who did proper "auditing" of local businesses where they had local knowledge so became suspicious if their observation of a business wasn't matched by the accounts, but for the last couple of decades, the chances of a business getting any kind of inspection/audit are pretty close to zero as most HMRC inspectors were made redundant when Brown centralised tax offices into a small number of large regional units and shut down nearly all the town centre/local tax offices.

Food businesses are typically very high gross margin so pretty ideal for money laundering. Sandwich shops, cake making shops, are similar in being high margin businesses known for money laundering.

It's not just money laundering though, such shops are also often a "front" for drug dealing, i.e. a pouch of something popped into your pie or sandwich bag when you ask for a "special"! We had a local sandwich shop owner who got sent to jail for drug dealing and money laundering from his back street sandwich shop - it wasn't HMRC who noticed the anomalies in his takings/profits, it was lots of local residents who reported it to the police due to the number of "suspicious" looking people using the shop and thought it strange because the locals never used it due to a low food hygiene rating and poor quality food, i.e. stale bread used for sandwiches, poor product choice, etc. They simply couldn't understand why it was so popular when their food was so poor!

The local fried chicken place near me always has hordes of people outside its alright but not THAT good so I'm wondering now what else they may be selling!

Weddings and childrens wear are supposed to be historically recession proof

I was shopping with almost-Uni-age DS today, first time in years I've spent more than 20 minutes in Norwich. The city centre was busy in places but it was also very sad. So many empty shopfronts!! Big and small. On street and within malls.

We went to Primark (heaving), Next (brisk), Sports Direct (heaving), M&S (few customers), Castle Mall (thin for customers except maybe Poundland). Chantry food court was quiet & Castle Mall food court was shut (did it ever open after Covid?). Debenhams & TopShop long standing empty. I felt well alarmed. That was not a healthy city centre, and only the most budget price places were busy. Maybe care homes will be propped up but it's brick & morter retail that's going to collapse, I predict.

Went to see my mother who lives in a seaside resort town.We went to our usual fish & chip restaurant (been going there for 40 years since they started). 5 years ago plaice & chips was £7.90. Last year £9.50 and this year £13.50. Fish portion was also smaller. Their energy bills must be huge and oil & fish prices have doubled.

The "rot" that set in with smaller town centres years ago is definitely spreading to the bigger cities etc. 10 years ago, it was just the smaller towns who'd lost their "proper" shops and were dominated by charity shops, book-makers, etc., but now a lot of the smaller city centres have gone the same way.

I work for a supplier to the construction and plumbing industry.

Sales are down 25% year on year.

Most businesses simply will not survive the next 18 months. We are looking at absolute economic collapse and I am astounded that so few people seem to understand this.

If you can get out of the UK and preferably out of Europe entirely I would advise you to do so asap.

Castle Mall's been very quiet since Chantry Place opened though, arguably Norwich isn't a big enough city to support two malls of that size. The big 'anchor tenant' department stores are definitely struggling with the shift to online, I think they've got such big premises but does a city of that size really need four department stores? I feel bad for John Lewis, though, as it's really in the wrong location, away from the footfall.

Strangely, every time I've been into Norwich since the end of lockdown it's felt really bustling, especially around the market and the lanes. Loads of independent businesses doing a brisk trade, and it can be really difficult to get a reservation at some of the popular restaurants! I think where Norwich and cities like it have a chance it's if they offer something different to online - independent shops, a good atmosphere and a bit of personality.

That sounds right. Plumbers and similar tradesmen I come across in my voluntary work are claiming supplementary benefits, some possibly always did but more so I think. There's not enough work to go round either, apparently.

But I thought construction was brisk? Prices are sky high and we have to wait for ages to get someone- I have been looking for a carpenter for ages.

And electricians are impossible to get.

Plumbers and similar tradesmen I come across in my voluntary work are claiming supplementary benefits, some possibly always did but more so I think. There's not enough work to go round either, apparently.

Rubbish. If a qualified plumber or electrician who is fit to work is either claiming top-up benefits or asking for financial help from you in a voluntary capacity, I assure you there is something going on and it is not a shortage of work. Whether they are choosing not to work much and get topped up or (more likely) working but not declaring their income, either way they are dodgy.

DH's electrician business folded in the housing slump in the 2000s. Simply not enough business to sustain it. I think many did the same.

As the business was slumping he was doing a lot of quoting but then being told that the client's cousin's brother's cat would do the job for a tin of Whiska's. They weren't bothered about it being properly tested as the cat had promised to be careful.

If the business had survived then he would possibly have offered DS an apprenticeship. As it is they both work in a supermarket.

If the business had survived then he would possibly have offered DS an apprenticeship. As it is they both work in a supermarket.

Even if his business folded, could he not go employed by a large firm for much more than he gets in a Supermarket? Even in the NHS where I work there are jobs for electricians - not very attractive compared to what they can get elsewhere, they don't stay long.

Indeed. Or started up a new business once the slump years were over.

DH was a Part P qualified electrician but had put himself through training so wasn't able to work on building sites. I can't remember the detail but essentially you have to have started as an apprentice to get the appropriate certificates.

Re-qualifying as a Part P electrician is not cheap. You have to be confident that there is enough business to justify rejoining the industry.

Maintaining that qualification annually is not cheap and is an administrative burden. This is not just additional training but submitting assessable pieces of work which get inspected. Inspection means going to a customer's home with all the disruption that involves.

Larger firms will have a mix of qualified and unqualified electricians. Qualified electricians should supervise the unqualified ones. At the time DH's business folded larger electrical firms were simply not recruiting anyone. Now DH is effectively unqualified as his Part P has lapsed. Supermarket work is probably similarly paid.

Part P is domestic not commercial.

My point is that once a qualified tradesperson leaves the industry it is not easy to rejoin.

Well established trade businesses may be able to weather a storm. They lay off staff. They cut costs such as training.

Once the storm is over the staff they laid off may well have now got other jobs, gone into other industries. The apprentices they would have had are not there.

I thought you meant I was talking rubbish! That's what they've been saying generally.

Oh dear, I hadn't thought about it not being above board. I suppose it's possible.

If they can afford to restart the business.

Sold the van, sold the tools, no order book. possibly damaged relationships with suppliers, now several years older and not fancying the hassle of a start-up business.

But... all of the trades around here are very busy. There are shortages of sparkies, plumbers, plasters, and builders. That might change if construction slows down, but there are a lot of major infrastructure projects ongoing, in the pipeline, and recently announced. The only thing harder to get than a gas boiler service appointment is a dentist appointment.

I noticed there are jobs for electricians, plumbers and carpenters at prisons. Not very glam but a step up to better things?

If Hermes aka Evri went under, there would probably be a lot of cheering. Same with Foxtons (from all other estate agents). Both unlikely to though.

@MotherWol the Foreign Office have been trying to support retailing in Norwich, though how you could spend £1800 in the football club shop in one go is beyond me.