Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

Hairdressers... Ours have up their prices this year three times... Fair enough they have to look after their bottom line but I need to look after mine too. My priorities are heating my home & feeding my kids so I've cut out the hairdressers completely & do my own colour, 5 quid a box., can't tell the difference... Also saves me time as I don't spend 2 hours waiting around the hairdressers... I lob on the colour, do my toenails & a bit of housework while I'm waiting, wash & dry... Saves me more money by not having to drive & pay for parking 😍

We've said that about construction each time there's a blip in the market but they keep doing well! I can't think of a time in my lifetime when they've suffered!

Obviously the hospitality industry is going to struggle due to many factors but are we going to be flocking to pubs and coffee shops in an attempt to keep warm / not have to heat our houses for a bit? My DH works from home and at the current price of drinks it would be cheaper for him to sit in a coffee shop for the morning rather than heat our house, but I imagine they will have to put their prices up.
Not sure how these 'warm banks' are going to work but presumably pubs etc could be part of this as community hubs - maybe some subsidy from the government to enable them to continue trading?

My butcher's has closed. Meat and chicken grew more expensive but a £3k electricity bill finished him.

Possibly wrong but I think we are at the stage of the last hera!

The next few months will see everyone enjoying themselves, pubs, restaurant, beauty salons, retail l. Any discretionary soend doing well but it will all change before Christmas.

Worst effected:-
Construction
Food production
Pubs, restaurants etc.. - takeaway will be ok as it's the placement treat for night's out/holidays etc.
Car dealerships
Travel agents
Women's fashion
Anything discretionary

My father was a professional musician throughout his life.
His business actually flourished during recessions and economic downturns. People still celebrated birthdays, weddings, anniversaries and other celebrations.

My husband is a professional photographer and his business took a massive hit during Covid due to not being able to leave our house or have close face-to-face interactions. We literally lost 90% of our bookings for 2020. However, he had to readjust his business to keep the business afloat. He offered editing services, sold prints online, did food photography, held online workshops, etc...You'll find that during difficult economic times, many business owners will need to do the same and you'll find many will uncover their creativity during these times.

Some may not be in a position to adjust and it will (and currently is) extremely disheartening and excruciatingly difficult times ahead for many.

Also things like cleaners, window cleaners, gardeners imo.

Construction - it’s already happening. Everyone suddenly feels like now might not be the right time to embark on a big expensive project that could wait until next year.
I'm in this sector and the past three months have been our busiest/most profitable since the company was established.

The accountancy profession is going to be hit hard as more businesses move to automated invoicing systems that link to accounts that link to tax filings.

Gardeners, as more people are working from home and cutting back on unnecessary expenditure

I run a small restaurant - think 30 covers so very small. Open 10 hours a day 7 days a week.
My energy contract finished in July.
I renewed in February for the new contract to start in July.
Just had my first energy bill and it’s come at 3k for the month. The heating obviously isn’t on yet.
If I delayed renewing this months bill would’ve come in at upwards at 5k.
Personally I think the restaurant side will be ok, people will come to stay warm, our takeaways will be hit though and we’re already seeing the usual regulars giving more time between visits.
It’s ok saying we can increase our prices, but we understand there’s a fine line, we’ll be absorbing much more than the amount we can pass on.
We’re busy and in a tourist area, but we’ll definitely be struggling.
Any business in the same trade as us, that don’t have the same luxury that we have of being in a tourist area, are unfortunately going to have to shut.
Personally, I think pubs are going to fare off worse than every other industry, they’re already struggling, but I think this is going to be the straw that breaks the camels back.
Pubs are generally quite big, pints are going to have to increase an enormous amount just to be able to cover even a third of the energy increases.

As @Summerfun54321 says construction.
1st industry always hit in a recession is construction and like it or not we are headed to a recession.
Not good for me as i work in construction but fingers crossed I'm not affected as I am on a project running for another 2 years. But it's not just about me as all in construction will feel a pinch 1st over anyone else in a recession

I went out for a meal last weekend to a local restaurant .

We had pretty much exactly what we had previously a few months ago and the bill was almost £20 more
So what I paid around £60 I paid just over £80
I can afford it but I was a bit shocked at the increase .
it’s always busy though and I hope they get through this rough time .

i wont be giving up my beauty treatments and hope my local salon is ok

I work in construction too and we are certainly noticing it already.
Calls coming in are less but more worrying is the cost of materials which are going up rapidly.
We quote for jobs but costs are rising so fast that most need to be requoted before work starts. The customer then can’t afford all the extra cost so we have to take some of it which takes away profit which is our wages….

Every trade we know is in the same situation.

In my small town a bakery, an antiques shop, a sandwich shop and a tapas bar have all closed in the past 4 months dues to spiraling energy costs and reduced footfall (cited directly on closure announcements via social media posts not hearsay). All fairly established too, trading at least 5 years. Really sad.

Mostly badly run businesses that haven’t built up a buffer.

Generally, in a recession, smaller businesses often do very well. Consumers who are affected will often trade down

Tattoo artists will survive.
The others won't.

Incorrect.
Every vegan gobshite cafe will close down in the next 3 months.

That is the most naive thing I’ve heard in a long time.

It’s alright having some savings, but when the average 5000 square foot pub or restaurant has an energy contract that has ended in the last 6 months, or is due to end in the next 6 months, they’ll be guaranteed to be facing an energy bill of around 80k per year, those businesses will quickly eat into those savings.
And that’s without factoring in the increased cost of everything else.

What is going to go under is anything used by the middle class.
The poor never could have afforded it.
The rich wouldn't dream of it.
Restaurants like Prezzo and a chicken place beginning with P whose name I can never remember.
Costa and other coffee chains etc. - they're going!
Anywhere that operates things like 'soft-play' for kids. They'll be gone in 3 months.

Basically, anything that operates on the 'our clients have more money than sense' will close.

Low cost models of industry will rise as will addictions and 'get me out da bleedin ouse dave'.

Waitrose will probably sustain 6 months but won't sustain longer.
Anything like those eat at home/cook at home thingies will die in February.

Anything 'sustainable' won't survive as people will sustainably sustain themselves

The bookies and Wetherspoons will survive. We love the poor. x

The SUV vehicle will go under too.

Apple will drop massively in price. Amazon will remain stable. Netflix will probably remain stable for 6 months and then drop.

In times of recession, certain business models survive. Certain principles become irrelevant (where my coffee bean is from is not of concern to someone who is simply trying to warm her hands).
Bizarrely, some industries thrive in times of poverty and they're horrible industries.

Car manufacturers are really dicing with death unless they can stick an envelope in someone's pocket.

The divide will become wider and then narrow. Resentment among us will be so bad that refugees will be running back to whence they came. 😆