Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

50p of that sausage goes to HMRC as VAT.

Exactly this.
And it’s not like they can claim it back because there isn’t any VAT paid when buying it from the supplier!

I get really irate at this,

I pay £40 for a box of chicken, no VAT applied to it because it isn’t cooked.
I pay my staff to cook and then serve that chicken.
I pay the the overheads associated with the running costs of the premises.
But after all this, I have to give 20% back to HMRC in VAT (with no chance of claiming it back) just because it’s been cooked or served.

A lot of people think that during COVID hospitality got a load of help in terms of cutting VAT, but we weren’t actually better off because it was never charged on our stock in the first place.
The government is first in the queue for ripping off the hospitality industry.

@Ineke
Interesting. Decades ago when a student nurse living in, we were paid £11pm therefore had to be inventive with our money.
One friend, who had the most glorious, silky, shiny, remarked upon, natural raven-coloured hair, washed it with Daz laundry powder.

@dadadeedadada
Talking about phone shops. The boss of a UK phone company with circa 480 employees, is giving each of them an extra £200pm going forward with no end date, to help them out with the COL. Nice one. Every little.. as they say.

I've noticed that a lot of pubs near us have slimmed down their menus , fair enough but it's stuff I'd make everyday at home
I can't afford to treat myself to a £15 meal that I can make at home for less than half of that
Eating out is the one thing I look forward to every month
Take aways , coffee out and nails went years ago

Anything that had to close due to covid.

Anything usually propped up by middle earners, hospitality, I suspect will be hit the hardest followed by gyms. It’s soon going to be better to be on benefits than some professional jobs esp of paying for childcare.

I think virtually every business is at risk, apart from those that provide absolute essentials. It is a very worrying time for everyone - except, of course, the super rich.

Our local marstons pub was always expensive so £19:50 for fish and chips. But it was buy one, get one free. So effectively half the menu price. They’ve scrapped that deal and kept prices the same. It’s just normal oven chips straight out a pack. People won’t pay £20 for that!

My husband has a small business.
He was on a fixed electicity contract at £3000 per quarter.
It is now come to the end of its term.
He has just been quoted £18,000.
We are lucky that the company doesnt have any debt so will be able to take the hit but if we were a new business we would go to the wall I am sure.

It isnt just the businesses selling the product. It the manufacturers as well. We make an ingredient that goes into food. If our prices rise we have to pass this on, that on top of the fuel increase. We can ride it out because we have been trading 40 + years and built up reserves. Others will go to the wall.

There are so many knock on effects.
Family A can just about afford higher gas bills but have to cut back on meals out. Cafes and restaurants then go out of business so any businesses that supply them also go out of business. When people lose their jobs they don't need childcare or dog walkers or cleaners so then those people lose their jobs too.
It's perhaps more useful to ask which businesses won't be affected.
I don't think nurses or doctors will lose their jobs but they may leave their profession due to poor working conditions and pay that is reduced in value thanks to inflation.

Upcoming crisis? What crisis? Stop watching BBC overhyping bullshit. Just live your life. There’s no crisis. Yawn…..

Thank you for your contribution, Ms Truss, but if you ever deign to spend a little time on Planet Earth you'll find there is. It won't be a crisis for all of us - I'll just have to be a bit more careful with non-essential spending and reduce the amount I save, for example - but for the very large number of people who already live very nearly hand-to-mouth a 15%+ inflation rate, large increases in mortgage payments when current fixed rates run out and an 80% increase in energy costs in October with about another 50% increase over the next 3-6 months will most definitely be a crisis.

Regarding which businesses will go to the wall... I saw someone had mentioned private schools (small ones will certainly be at risk) but I don't understand why more people aren't asking questions about state schools. I don't see how they can possibly stay open over the coming winter unless there is a major change in plans for government support.

Charities are presumably also getting worried, while I’m sure many of us will try to keep up with our donations, for many people that just won’t be an option when it’s the donkey sanctuary or your own dinner.

Re schools:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/29/leading-tories-call-on-new-pm-to-tackle-crisis-facing-schools-over-soaring-costs

Schools will stay open - for one all heads will be actively aware of the service they are providing keeping children (and possibly the wider family) warm(ish) and fed in difficult times. This will quite possibly have to come at the expense of other things - although it’s hard to think what at this moment. Be prepared for schools to start asking for donations, be it money or of more practical stuff.

Charity shops will sell more at least. That's assuming people can continue to donate old stuff they don't need which may not be the case if they are buying less new stuff.

So yeah, they're fucked too.

Doctors/nurses will only leave if they can find another job, which will be increasingly difficult once unemployment starts to rise due to business failures.

Liz Truss said not long ago the NHS shouldn't be on a pedestal and she believed in a 10% pay CUT for Doctors. Can see her long term vision.

Sorry for the dumb question but I keep hearing people worrying about schools. What am I missing....I assumed the government pay their energy bills?

Schools pay their energy bills (& everything else) out of their operational budgets. It's not a blank cheque.

The same applies to GP surgeries. All bills come out of the budget. If it goes up then savings need to be made.....

Ah, I see.

Surely they'll have to increase the budgets with these unprecedented increases. I wouldn't worry about this.

I guess the issue is WHEN will the budget get increased and what do they do until then

@ByeByeMissAmericanPie
supporting Local Businesses is NOT 'adopting A local business' 🙄🙄