Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

I believe the government will have to pump billions into energy, preferably by rapidly ending our dependence on gas, making us energy secure via renewables. (All those abandoned plans for tidal lagoons etc need dusting off) and nationalising the sector. No profit for anyone, just reinvest in infrastructure. Run energy for the benefit of our country, our economy and our people.

Because otherwise the British way of life we've all grown up with just...end.

The majority of pubs, fish and chip shops, soft play etc will mostly be gone in 2023 if the government doesn't do enough.

If they don't renationalise, get off gas, and make energy self sufficient then they'll have to pay an ever growing proportion of everyone's energy bill for the foreseeable future. This will cost at least £150billion for the next 12 months.

Energy security, nationalisation and getting off gas is the only sensible move, but will they make it?

Last orders for pubs?

Energy security, nationalisation and getting off gas is the only sensible move, but will they make it?
Which bit do you propose to nationalise?

The problem at the moment is gas and the West's dependence on Russian supplies of it. Nationalising the power generators and the energy distributors won't automatically insulate the consumers and business from the cost of oil and gas. Unless you also propose either nationalising the primary producers (Shell, BP, etc.) or subsidising their profits. Nationalising the primary producers has international implications and will be horrendously expensive. A windfall tax is a more logical option, although you still then need to decide on a mechanism for using that to bring down costs to consumers and business.

Pub closures: "Rapidly rising bills lost graver risk than covid"

We have to get off gas.

We can't afford it.

Schools face closure because of energy costs:

We can't do it overnight. It won't fix the problem this winter.

If not going to fix next winter and the winter after that unless they start it now. The number one priority is to stop burning gas to generate electricity.

The government should've reduced our dependence on gas a decade ago, but instead our country is at the mercy of "the market" and Putin, both of whom can still make things even worse.

A last chewy thought before bed: If the government is going to have to pay a significant chunk of everyone's energy bills (and it is) then they will probably want to reduce overall usage. We might be looking at power cuts and rationing like the three day week in the 1970s.

Surely they'll have to increase the budgets with these unprecedented increases. I wouldn't worry about this.

Who are "they"?

If you're expecting the government to act responsibly, you are deluded. Next week the government will be even more firmly in the grip of "free"-market fanatics. I would worry very much about this.

Lots of households will be wishing they hadn't opted for 'low shedding' dogs like the various poodle crosses...

amp.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/28/rising-energy-costs-will-force-thousands-of-corner-shops-to-close

Hasn't the government just given teachers a pay rise, which has to be paid out of existing budgets? So, schools will have to pay a higher wage bill and increased energy costs, with no increase in funding.

Anyone care to chip in? Is this correct?

@anderosonnmj as current things stand, this is correct yes.
Teachers have had a pay rise with no increase to their funding.
Many schools have old outdated central heating systems so it’s not like they can just the heating down for unused rooms.
Either our children will be wearing coats in classrooms, or teachers will be laid off and class sizes will become bigger.
one way or another, the kids will suffer as the extra money needed has to come from somewhere.
It’s been suggested that school hours are reduced, but that won’t work with teachers contracted hours.

I work for one of the UK's large online fashion retailers.

We'll survive, I'm sure but it's already getting tough so I foresee redundancies at some point.

Spending is down, returns are way up (people buying and then deciding they shouldn't have spent the money I guess).

Not sure of current price but at one point the cost of shipping a container of goods into the UK had gone from £1500 to £11,000!

We also use UK garment manufacturers and their prices have obvs gone up.

Also we run big, automated warehouses (three in the UK alone). I can't even imagine the energy price increase for them!

Plus staff on lower wages (completely correctly) asking for salary raises as the COL isn't affordable for them.

Teacher in family has had a meetingbtoday here are some of their proposals:
School dinners won't be hot.no snacks.watwr not milk or juices.less fresh more bulk palatable and frozen foods.
Class sizes will be increased.
Shared books.pencils.no craft.no instrument.more on whiteboards so less exercise books to buy.
Less breaks outside due to cold weather.
Less staff.
Less sub teachers classes will just join together or one teacher will be across to if next door.

It's not too difficult to change contracted hours with notice, if there are grounds ie literally no money to psy for them. Even the unions couldn't prevent that if the other options were school going bust or mass redundancies. I'm sure most staff would prefer some hours than none at all.

It’s not just about that though.
If they did manage to reduce contracts without then causing hardship to the teachers, who’s looking after the kids while the parents work?

Even the NHS, who’s going to foot the bill for the huge energy bills there?

Its the energy that’s the problem, and now its just a massive shit show. Regardless of what industry your in.

This is the consequences of modern day war

Yes, it's economic warfare and all routes lead back to energy. All supply chains, from the beginning (farming mining etc) to the finished product and end user, everything will be adding on increased costs due to disrupted energy supply.

It's so pervasive. I know people are saying the war is not the only factor but Putin is not as stupid as we thought and can only be rubbing his hands in vitriolic glee.

article in dm today. says people will pay up to an extra £2500 in energy costs wfh.

Worldwide, yes worldwide wholesale, yes wholesale, energy costs started going up after covid started, so summer 2020.
So been happening two years before the start of the Russian war.

The rise started when people started wfh

Look at the blue and green lines

www.cliffordtalbot.co.uk/energy-prices/

I work for a well known store that's been around for years. We calculate every day our increase/decrease in takings against the same day last year. Last year things were picking up (but not back to pre-lockdown levels), this last month every day we've been down between 1.6% and 10.1% on individual days. Customers moan there's no staff, about the queues or look at you frustrated because you say you've already got two people in store wanting to speak to you, but you'll come back to them. We just can't afford more staff.

Things really shot up like a rocket around June then

I got the worst of both worlds … mine sheds all over everything AND needs regular grooming. Good job I love her 🤣