Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

Are people assumed to be heating the home all day? I WFH and we don't have the heating on any more than when I didn't. The power my laptop / second screen use would be used whether I was in the office or at home. I can't imagine the lights I occasionally need or my little radio add much to my usage.

Exactly- I don't think we use much more working from home than not working from home. Companies can make cost saving on office space and heating/ air conditioning those.

And people save money on transport and lunches etc.

I had clubcard vouchers expiring today- they can be used to donate to the Trussel trust. (I didn't want anything, and not enough for anything useful- but something to be aware of if people do have vouchers expiring)

I think some pubs will survive by just shutting the kitchen - which is too energy intensive and they could never charge what they need to - for a while. People will still drink but I’m not sure they’ll want to pay for a family meal at a gastro pub. At least I really hope our local can survive by doing some like this .. God I hope so..

I don’t see how things like takeaway can survive at all. I suppose they could if they could just hibernate for a year like with a furlough scheme and help towards rents but otherwise no.

Pensioners will also be spending the same to stay at home but that was not mentioned in the article.

It is because the DM hate home workers because the Tory landlords don't make money from the office space. And all homeworkers are workshy shirkers or something.

The DM is clearly lagging behind their political paymasters. JRM has now u-turned after realising that the Government can sell off a lot of expensive office space and replace it with cheaper hubs out of the capital now that more of the civil service are WFH.

Hot tub companies

When a pint costs £15, a glass of wine £20 and a large G&T £50, I can't see that there will be a lot of takers.

Pubs will close because rather than let doomed businesses run up £100,000 in debt, the energy companies will refuse to supply them.

The energy companies are now asking for £10k+ securities from some small businesses to cover against small businesses going under. It's not surprising, the energy supply companies aren't the ones making the profits from the current market, and they're at risk too.

I hadn't heard that, £10k is not much of a buffer at these prices. The energy companies will collapse if the government doesn't prop them up with at least £150billion over the next 12 months.

Most businesses will collapse under the weight of their energy bills, people's lack of discretionary spending or both. With pubs it's both.

Aren’t a lot of pubs propped up by their food income?

www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/25/big-energy-firms-refuse-to-supply-small-uk-businesses-bankruptcy-fears-contracts

Large numbers of SMEs risk being devastated. There's are several large pub/restaurant chains going into this in very bad debt positions.

We've got friends and family across Europe, they're all asking "WTF is going on over there?" at the lack of government action.

Everyone knows what's coming, but it seems somewhat phoney at the moment as things are just creeping up on us. Fixed price energy contracts are providing a buffer, but more and more of these are coming to an end.

Yep, food sales are where the profits are made. A pub's energy costs would be unsustainably high even without the kitchen as they also have the bar heating/lighting, fridges, pumps, etc. Very few pubs can survive on drink sales alone, hence why most of the ones that have survived so far do serve food.

Maybe micro-pubs might survive as they're a lot smaller, so their power bills will also be smaller and they tend not to do hot food.

It is hard to believe @DogInATent. I understand why people are incredulous at the numbers involved and don't believe this can cost us more than covid.

Talk of rationing and blackouts, school closures and headlines about "70% of pubs could be put out of business by rising energy prices" etc do seem hard to believe.

But here we are.

I think with pubs it may well depend on what else closes. Traditionally Public houses were just that. Places to get together where you bought the services you got from a home. Part hotel, part restaurant, part social drink with others.
If the local restaurants, takeaways, hotels, cinema and theatres start closing, pubs might well be the only place to go.

Part of the reason that (without government action) I think we'll be in a sort of "energy lockdown" is that after a while, there won't be anywhere left to go.

That was because it was an affordable place and way to socialise.

People can get their heads around 20% increase in price. But the prospect of 6-8x increases in energy is an Outside Context Problem that we're just not able to process.

For the first year ever, I've filled the coal shed with more than a winter's worth of fuel in August. Normally I think nothing of ordering what I need every 6-8 weeks throughout the winter.

It feels like armageddon again ( first time it felt like armageddon being the lockdowm announcements in March 2020). What a decade this is turning out to be and we are only in 2022!

It really does feel like that, I can't quite compared the fact that the kids could end up with some elements of homeschool again if schools have to close. Hopefully it will be mild winter.

And we still don't know if there will be a Covid wave and also we haven't had much flu around recently.

I need to cheer up a bit I think.

The 20s have been a complete shitshow! 😂

They have talked about warm banks and I can foresee families moving in together or at least in the daytime going round to one house that is heated rather than heat separate homes. ie the exact opposite of what they told us in lockdown. So let's hope the vaccinations are working or that Covid doesn't mutate otherwise it will be a double armageddon.

Jesus. Imagine how some kids will spend their winter if it’s a sort of lockdown (whatever the reason) again.
we need to keep schools open, and warm and children (including secondary) fed

@notanoccultexpert could you DM me the link to your website please? I quoted you earlier to ask. I don't think you get notifications about that though hence this post.

Many thanks. Hope interview went well.

And imagine the kids at home in unheated houses, it doesn't bear thinking about