If you tend to vote conservative can I ask a few questions - let’s keep it light and respectful!

[Holidayhavanas]

Full disclosure I tend to vote Labour, but I’m really interested to know if you tend to vote for the tories, what is your reasoning behind. the real shortage of qualified public sector workers for example teachers, social workers, police. A health service and education system on it’s knees. Police forces like Manchester and Met in special forces. I think that it’s symptomatic of years of underfunding. I work in the public sector and feel on a daily basis that the country is absolutely screwed. I assume most tory supporters would say it’s down to austerity but I feel it’s ideological cutting back on public funding. I’mgenuinely open to hear other views as I find it so depressing and just hope that it’s something I am missing. Let’s try and keep this respectful 😊

Disclaimer: I was so undecided I asked my DS which way he wanted my vote to go. I M V H O, the moment for a referendum on the formation of the EU as a political entity was Maastricht in 1992. It didn't happen and and there was a stampede into the euro. Thank heavens for Gordon Brown saying no. I say this as a Tory-lite voter.

Sorry but the SM was close to two decades after your parents voted to stay in the EEC.
It was and is much more than trade, she knew that and supported it, well, actually the UK was instrumental in designing it.

Closer to a decade but whatever. Thatcher's idea of the SM was all to do with trade. She supported the SM because it mirrored the liberalisation and deregulation of trade which she supported at home. She continually spoke against and opposed more powers being transferred to the European Parliament. She had no desire for ever closer European or political integration which countries like France and Germany refer to as "the project".

Single Market was introduced in 1993, EEC vote was 1975.... facts are not "whatevers"

The SM is the SM, its not what Thatcher thought it was, she helped make it and it was very much part of closer integration, she knew very well what she was supporting.... i.e the free movement of people, goods, services and capital far more than mere trade & the basis of pretty much all the regs and rules the UK is now wanting to remove.

Yes, later on, when she began to decline, she turned full circle and was against pretty much anything the EU did BUT the UK population kept voting for pro EU parties & Governments.

Average annual tax receipts have been £630 billion over the last five years. The annual average rise in tax receipts has been 3.7% over the last 20 years. That rise has been pretty consistent both under Labour for the first half of that period and Conservatives for the second half, save for 2009 to 2010 when the Great Recession impacted tax receipts and 2020 to 2021 when it was Covid. The UK economy bounced back in 2020 to 2021 and tax receipts rose sharply to £719 billion, but that is playing catch-up. These figures do not include council taxes, business rates and some other Govt receipts, but those under HMRC's collection powers. Those figures published monthly and consolidated over the 20 years are very detailed and enable conclusions to be drawn between the first half (Labour and worldwide cheap money) and the second half (Conservatives and worldwide austerity).

UK expenditure over the first ten year Labour period rose by 6.7% per annum on average. Over the second ten year period under the Conservatives it rose by 4.0% per annum, reflecting austerity. This was not a UK phenomena - the Big State affected all of Europe in the early noughties when credit was both cheap and more freely available through increased globalisation.

The UK economy has at its base two main sectors: oil / hard commodities and financial services. Brexit should not affect the former, but longer term the finance sector can expect to lose out to Europe, all things equal. It will take some time, but it is irrational to think that the EU will not establish a financial centre at least of an equal size to London. Due to the relative size of the population to oil and commodities, the UK has never been able to establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund like Norway.

Government debt is £2.23 trillion. That is the equivalent of £80,000 per household. This has to be paid back and currently the interest alone on government debt is costing every household just under £3,000 per annum.

In my experience, the Labour period from 2001 to 2010 was characterised by Big State, cheap public finances and poor management of the black economy. Gordon Brown was at the helm for that. Margaret Hodge (Labour) has consistently lobbied for tax reform to close the tax gap for the benefit of taxpayers. The Conservative period (mostly Osborne) has been characterised by austerity, levelling taxes especially across middle earners who now pay relatively more and closing the tax gap through legislation and 'fiscal drag'. Both governments responded to the macro evidence at the time and either would have acted the same at those times.

We no longer have a global economy. Covid, Ukraine and the polarisation of democracies, autocracies and the BRICs club means the UK (and the EU for that matter) need to get far leaner on public finances and take some control for the strategic direction of our economy. Liz Truss's mandate worries me. With inflation being fuelled by factors out of our control (and within the control of others) this is not a time for any state to be giving out tax breaks under a perverse belief it will grow the economy. Handing out tax breaks is not investment. It will fuel inflation and make the deficit larger. The £2.23 trillion of debt does not sit in some illusory vacuum. It needs a plan.

That's a very interesting post thank you, particularly the numbers.

However, I think there is post Brexit opportunity for the U.K. financial services industry. The recent change in listing rules around free float % etc is aimed at encouraging IPOs in London, and we've apparently pinched a couple of IPOs from Amsterdam.

While no one wants to see the Cayman Islands lite in the U.K., I think there may be some opportunity for the FS sector in terms of lighter regulations and perhaps limited tax breaks.

Lack of regulation in the global FS lead to the GFC of 2008 and how does tax breaks help the ordinary worker and their families?

Its very worrying the direction the Tory party is taking on the economy, their choice of Brexit has demoted the City of London, which was the FC of choice for the EU.
Brexit happened but we did not need a hard one.

They are now destroying our life sciences sector with exclusion from Horizon, over the NI protocol which they themselves wrote up & signed up too but now seek to break this agreement.

Single Market was introduced in 1993, EEC vote was 1975.... facts are not "whatevers"

Thatcher stopped being PM in 1990. She helped shape the Single European Act in 1986 which was the start of the single market. She made compromises to get the Act through which led to consequences she later regretted. She was not against the EU, she was against political integration of the EU or a federal Europe. She spoke against political integration in the 1980s whilst still PM. She was only interested in free trade which is what she considered the single market would give her. The majority voting that came as a result of the SEA started to take the EU into a different direction than one she supported and she was vocal about it in in the 1990s.

Lack of regulation in the global FS lead to the GFC of 2008 and how does tax breaks help the ordinary worker and their families?

The GFC originated in the US, albeit the banks in question were global.

Tax breaks help to attract financial services businesses, one of the key contributors to GDP in the UK. They provide employment for lower-income people, in addition to more highly-paid professionals.

Employees and corporations pay tax (even if it's at a reduced rate). There also a trickle-down effect in terms of spending on local goods and services, VAT receipts and a variety of other financial benefits.

Surely attracting big businesses to locate in the U.K. isn't a bad thing? Particularly for people worried about an exodus of businesses post Brexit.

The GFS originated with the collapse of Lehman in the States, and it was largely caused by over-paid investment bankers securitising bundles of low grade mortgages that had been sold to folk who really couldn't afford them. Dubbed NINJA loans (it stood for No Income, No Jobs or Assets) these were then sold on as "investments" to second- and third-tier banks worlwide who lacked the sophistication to rate the instruments properly. A lot of German regional banks got their fingers badly burned, and it focused attention on the overheated property markets around the world rather like UK, Canada, Australia and NZ now. Property and assets crashed. Apologies if you all remember the events. In those days, my job was to write about businesses and investments.

@XingMing Short answer, Lack of regulation or the right kind, which is why very much tightened after 2008.

@lot123 No argument from me that attracting business is great for ukplc but surely we need manufacturing too?
R4 reporting on the Taiwanese situation and the fact that it is the global centre for hi end computing chips, they mused whether this manufacturing capability could be set up elsewhere? the expert said "Well we did have a chip manufacturing business in Newport but it was sold to the Chinese last year and is now subject to an inquiry as to why this was allowed to happen"

Shameful really & not the first time we allow world leading UK business to be sold off.
UK/EU/USA really have to get their acts together on China and start on shoring essential manufacturing asap.

There's a large top-end chip manufacturer in the Netherlands, but yes, it was a complete disgrace that anyone permitted the UK's chip manufacturer to be sold overseas. In fact, don't get me started on that subject at all; it's something of a hobby horse with me. The catastrophe at Heathrow is at least something to do with the fact that it's owned by a Spanish investor.

The GFC originated in the US, albeit the banks in question were global.

The seeds of the Great Recession were sown across many countries. The first sproutings were in the US subprime mortgage market leading to homeowners abandoning their mortgages. European housing operates a bit differently. Many countries used a tool of last resort which is no longer available to us - quantitative easing.

Tax breaks help to attract financial services businesses, one of the key contributors to GDP in the UK. They provide employment for lower-income people, in addition to more highly-paid professionals.

This is true. It is a corollary of Gordon Brown's Big State. But needs counterbalancing with protection for society. No tax evasion, diverted profits. And no zero hours contracts. Corporate incentives do not work in a vacuum. Time and time again greedy individuals play the system. £75m bonuses to CEO's of house buildings due to impressive results when Help to Buy was running, for example.

Employees and corporations pay tax (even if it's at a reduced rate). There also a trickle-down effect in terms of spending on local goods and services, VAT receipts and a variety of other financial benefits.

This is what Portugal is doing. This is why wealthy people are having habitual residence there. The sun shines more, that also helps.

No argument from me that attracting business is great for ukplc but surely we need manufacturing too?

We will. It will eventually become too costly, at the very least in CO2 terms, to fly chicken to Thailand to be processed into meals and flown back to the UK. Then there are nuts and bolts, flowers, training shoes and the list goes on. We are going to have to live with less CO2 and that means living with less of everything unless we can source it locally.

Shameful really & not the first time we allow world leading UK business to be sold off.

For completeness it works the other way too. British have been buying foreign business and assets (at a fair market price) for several decades. One thing Brits have been good at is capital allocation. This means, in the medium term, the manufacturing of widgets is not worth investing in because it is cheaper to buy them from South Korea. If I were the PM, I would appoint a Minister for Capital Allocation and a Minister for Geo Political Insight. One would be at Number 9 Downing Street and the other at Number 12.

There's a large top-end chip manufacturer in the Netherlands

ASML Holdings. Flattish performance for 19 years then, with Covid, Ukraine and the potential collapse of globalisation, the share price has gone up 400% in three years. Still some way to go.

My Minister of Capital Allocation would scrap HS2 and reinvest in Wales.

Some very interesting points raised. I'd agree that we have to focus on the products and services that we can realistically compete on a global scale. I think we'll struggle in terms of manufacturing, unless it's capital rather than labour intensive. Or highly skilled or more niche.

The U.K. has some selling points and competitive advantage, particularly in the financial services sector. The US private equity snaffling of companies such as Morrisons and Meggit shows that the U.K. is seen as a benign country for financial investment.

I think it also helps that we're English speaking (granted that some people speak English very proficiently as a second language, unlike most of us). There's also some cultural 'fit' with countries such as the U.S. and Australia.

But remote working has accelerated the trend towards a global workforce so the U.K. has to find a specialism and excel at it.

We have an aging workforce, we can't do everything! jeez even if everyon of the long term unemployed became carers, AHPs, farm workers, butchers etc etc we'd still need migrant labour, let alone fill gaps in manufacturing.

Its why i m keen on better european co-op so Let countries (in Europe) that can x well, do that, we do y and excel at that.. e.g. Life Sciences but what are we doing with that? opting out of european co-op and probably the funding too, wrecking the sector.

Its madness, based on ideology.

at the end of the day people just want decent jobs, so they can pay for food housing etc, they want reliable education healthcare and justice, we need to concentrate on getting these basics right first, there is too much fluff.

Also recent world upheaval shows we should be more self sufficient in energy food etc, we have enough resources to provide for all our energy needs, we have plenty of wind, tidal power will never fail as there are two tides per day, solar is a bit less reliable as not the sunniest country in the world
we have good agricultural land and land unsuitable for crops that is for livestock we need to pay for healthy chickens to be raised here in reasonable conditions and made into meals here making sure we use the whole bird not just breast meat etc
we need cross party agreement on things like social care as people need to plan 30-40 years ahead for old age already 66% of the population live to be older than 80, not the 5 years before next GE
on some things I am left like the need for good support for those that can't work, but on the right for those who chose not to contribute and that people should be able to keep and pass on what they worked for, the minimum wage needs to be livable on and we need to build homes for both purchase and rent mostly 2 and 3 bed homes

The tax on someone’s property assets and savings after death) known over the years as Inheritance tax or Capital transfer tax or death duties or estate tax or whatever name it is/was called has been around for hundreds of years.
I think late 17th early 18th century at least

We might have an aging work force but we also have age discrimination and discrimination towards British born workers.

During the first lockdown my family applied for work on a local ish farm to pick produce.
I did it in my younger days

We didn’t even get a reply. Then we heard that apparently no British workers wanted the job that’s why they had to get overseas workers in.

After that I don’t believe we need other people coming into do the work I think we need a change in attitude towards the manpower on offer