Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

Yes, re Jelly's last point, White House say they don't believe Putin wants to negotiate

"Russia’s objectives in its war against Ukraine remain regime change and the truncation of sovereignty of any Ukrainian state that survives the attacks despite Russian military setbacks & rhetoric hinting at a reduction in war aims following those defeats."

twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1544572701242712065?s=21&t=iqcvV9yUrKTS9f_U8YZOoA

Can't read the article but I'm not sure about that.

The Russians seem to need to throw everything including the kitchen sink at small frontal areas in order to make any gains at all in the east....the theory doing the rounds amongst other things is their logistics chain is now so limited that they have pretty much zero flexibility to switch efforts to another or even multiple fronts.

I can't really see them switching their emphasis to a large scale action against Kyiv, and I certainly don't see them switching to Odesa, but of course I may be wrong.

And link to ISW'sRUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 5

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-5

(Also linked in prior thread)

I guess it’s that point again where enough pain needs to be dealt to the Russian regime to make meaningful negotiation the most attractive option to them.

I fear that he feels sanction-proof and is banking on a painful winter for the west.

@Igotjelly what is that analysis based on do you know? I agree with @notimagain I haven't read anything that would lead me to believe they will be able to revert to their original ambition for seizing Odessa.

@s. From the ISW linked a couple of posts ago :

Patrushev’s explicit restatement of Putin‘s initial objectives, nearly five months later, strongly indicates that the Kremlin does not consider recent Russian gains in Luhansk Oblast sufficient to accomplish the initial goals of the "special operation,” supporting ISW’s ongoing assessment that the Kremlin has significant territorial aspirations beyond the Donbas. Patrushev’s statement suggests that Russian military leadership will continue to push for advances outside Donetsk and Luhansk blasts and that the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted war with the intention of taking much larger portions of Ukraine.[3]

For @Hillsmakeyoustrong sorry!

To be honest I'm not sure, I suspect nothing more than the general Russian advances currently (no matter how small) but I get the sense it doesn't take into account likely Ukrainian counter-offensives in coming months.

I just think its helpful sometimes to see counter-narratives, if for nothing other than balance.

Lots of speculation around who would replace Boris in the event they can pry him from Downing Street. I wonder what any of these would mean for support of Ukraine (both moral and tangible). Sky Bet odds for the favourites are:

Rishi Sunak 4/1
Penny Mordaunt 9/2
Ben Wallace 8/1
Liz Truss 9/1
Jeremy Hunt 10/1

*morale that should be

"Opinion Everyone’s talking about the endgame in Ukraine. Here’s how it might look."

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/01/ukraine-endgame-scenarios-war-russia/

@Igotjelly that series is really good. easy to listen to and reveals just how good he is at manipulation

Russia promised a 'response' to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, this isn't exactly what I was expecting: snickers nicely put.

It shows how desperate they are for manpower though. Which also makes me wonder about the Ukrainian manpower. Refusing to let conscripts leave their cities isn't a good sign.

About Khodorkovsky's comments, I don't see how the war -can- carry on in a way that puts Russia at the gates of Kyiv and Odessa. The gains made have taken months and the more land Russia takes, the less easy it will be to hold unless they literally deport/break the spirit of resistance every occupant, simply because there will be so much territory to defend. the US and UK have said they will continue to support Ukr for as long as it takes ... as long as they don't run out of equipment to send I suppose.

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Yesterday there were confirmed reports that another Gazprom ex-executive was found dead. "Suicide"

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ISW Key Takeaways

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev restated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s initial objectives for operations in Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin retains maximalist objectives including regime change and territorial expansion far beyond the Donbas.

Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest and east of Slovyansk.

Russian forces are attempting to advance west of the Lysychansk area toward Siversk.

Russian forces are likely attempting to gain access to village roads southeast of Bakhmut in order to advance on the city from the south.

Ukrainian forces conducted a limited counterattack southwest of Donetsk City.

Russian forces continued limited and unsuccessful assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian authorities are conducting escalated conscription measures in occupied territories to compensate for continuing manpower losses.

Russian authorities are continuing to consolidate administrative control of occupied areas of Ukraine, likely to set conditions for the direct annexation of these territories to the Russian Federation.

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UkraineNOW

🗑 Since the occupation of Crimea, Russia has stolen 13 billion cubic meters of Ukrainian gas

💡By the end of 2022, the European Union will reduce imports of Russian oil by 90% and rapidly reduce gas imports — Josep Borrell

🇬🇧 British Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace announced that the first rotation of the Ukrainian military had arrived in the country and would soon begin training.

💪 Lithuania will allocate an additional 10 million euros to Ukraine for urgent renewable works

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The Kyiv Independent, [06/07/2022 02:20]
⚡️ Governor: 220,000 people internally displaced in Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️ Ukraine’s Air Force destroys 9 Russian cruise missiles, 20 units of equipment.
Ukraine’s Air Force reported on July 5 that it also destroyed two Russian ammunition depots and two strongholds.

⚡️ France to help reconstruct Chernihiv Oblast.

⚡️ Reuters: Russian proxies seize 2 foreign ships in occupied Mariupol.
Russian proxies in Donetsk Oblast forcibly appropriated Panama-flagged Blue Star I and Liberia-flagged Smarta Shipping without compensation, rendering them “state property,” according to letters obtained by Reuters.
This is the first time commercial ships have been seized More than 80 foreign vessels are estimated to be stuck at Ukrainian ports due to Russian aggression.

⚡️UK Intelligence: Sloviansk next key contest in Battle of Donbas.

⚡️Russia blocks Kazakhstan's oil transit to Europe. Khazakhstan has stood up to Russia in a way that I hope they won't come to regret. Russia does not forgive and Putin is vindictive

⚡️Hungarian FM: Hungary doesn't deliver weapons to Ukraine to protect Hungarian citizens from Russia.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told CNN that Hungary's government didn't want to put 150,000 Hungarians living in the west of Ukraine at risk of being attacked by Russia. "For us, the main goal is not to be involved in this war in any way," Szijjarto added. [better hope the Russians don't come invade then eh? Or maybe he wouldn't mind]

@Igotjelly · Today 07:47
Also not sure if its been recommended before, it may well have been, but if not definitely worth giving the R4 podcast "Putin" a listen. Really interesting and helpful in understanding just how Putin came to power and the life experiences that shaped his thinking and how he gained so much influence.

I’ll listen later if possible. Did they mention the story that he was really born in Georgia to a single mother. She then married someone who wouldn’t accept him so she sent him to her parents, who had him fostered/adopted by relatives in St Petersburg when he was 10? The story was crushed.
in 2015 de Zeit wrote a synopsis about the discovery/hypothesis and and aftermath of possibly linked deaths.
www.zeit.de/feature/vladimir-putin-mother

The Telegraph also wrote about it in 2008 with the following headline.

Could this woman be Vladimir Putin's real mother?
Little is known about the childhood of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, despite his position as one of the world's most powerful men. Now in an extraordinary development, a Georgian woman has come forward to say she is his mother.
By Kate Weinberg in Georgia
05 December 2008 • 7:32pm
Vera Putina claims Vladimir Putin is her son and that she gave him away when he was 10
Vera Putina, 82, has claimed he is the child she gave away at the age of ten, giving an account of an unhappy childhood which is fiercely disputed by the Kremlin:

No they didn't, its all so murky though isn't it!

@Ijsbear Today 09:46

Thank you for your key takeaways.

Re:
Reuters: Russian proxies seize 2 foreign ships in occupied Mariupol.

Russian proxies in Donetsk Oblast forcibly appropriated Panama-flagged Blue Star I and Liberia-flagged Smarta Shipping without compensation, rendering them “state property,” according to letters obtained by Reuters.

This is the first time commercial ships have been seized More than 80 foreign vessels are estimated to be stuck at Ukrainian ports due to Russian aggression.

What is the international position regarding a theft like that? Isn’t it piracy?

They're specially trained arctic warfare ones too, so not so easily replaced if they're wanted back up near Finland again.

I hadn't heard that story about his ' mum' !

I dont suppose the truth will ever be known, it's not like he'd do a DNA test. THe BBC program didn't mention that but it's not incompatible with what they did cover

Ijsbear · Today 11:51
I hadn't heard that story about his ' mum' !

I dont suppose the truth will ever be known, it's not like he'd do a DNA test. THe BBC program didn't mention that but it's not incompatible with what they did cover

Do you remember how someone here, perhaps it was you, posted about how he always has a portable potty the contents of which no one else will ever get precisely to avoid information about him getting out?

Who knows about the story as it was quashed. It put him in a very different light from the real heart-of-Russia-born and bred legend he put out to get elected. The rejection and possible cruelty of his step father, if the story were to be true, might explain some of his violent characteristics.

I think when someone is very anxious to put forward a certain image it points to a great deal of insecurity around identity. Being yourself shouldn't be hard work.

Reminds me of a quote from the book Brideshead Revisited (Evelyn Waugh), which is is as far from Russia as you can get, but anyway

When people hate with all that energy, it is something in themselves they are hating.

That's extremely incisive.

Itimpossible to imagine Putin is a happy man

I LOVE Brideshead Revisited.

Following on from thoughts of Brideshead Revisited, I have noticed from seeing Ukrainian people on the news at funerals, or more happily at Easter, and sometimes from Ukrainians answering to Twitter remarks, or from seeing them cross themselves, that they often seem to have a more religious/ spiritual feeling than is common now in our society. Death, desperation, and despair brings a yearning for something beyond, but it seems part of the fabric of their lives.