Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

Good thread from Mick Ryan: twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1542678624460873728?s=21&t=4jDfkZBiwSHfBfA5Y9xQ0g

Key Takeaways

Russian troops made limited gains within the Lysychansk Oil Refinery and around Lysychansk.

Russian forces continued offensive operations to the south and east of Bakhmut and to the north of Slovyansk.

Russian forces continued efforts to regain control of settlements north of Kharkiv City.

Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to force Russian troops on the Southern Axis to prioritize defensive operations.

Russian occupation authorities took measures to ensure further economic and financial integration of occupied areas into the Russian system.

The Russian defeat on the Snake Island will alleviate some pressure off the Ukrainian coast by removing Russian air defense and anti-shipping missile systems from the island. The retreat itself will not end the sea blockade, however, as Russian forces have access to land-based anti-ship systems in Crimea and western Kherson Oblast that can still target Ukrainian cargo as well as the use of the remaining ships of the Black Sea Fleet.

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Kyiv Indep:

⚡️Bloomberg: Ukraine considering debt restructuring for $1.4 billion redemption and interest payments.

⚡️Official says Russia strikes Ukraine with less precise Soviet-era missiles.
Brigadier General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksii Hromov said at a press conference on June 30 that Russia has used inaccurate missiles from old Soviet stocks for more than 50 percent of its attacks in Ukraine and the rate of the attacks has more than doubled in the last two weeks and stands at 202 missiles.

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UkraineNOW

📣 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine called on the member states of the Convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea to force Russia to stop using the Caspian Sea water area for missile attacks on the territory of Ukraine

🇸🇪 Sweden will hand over anti-tank weapons and demining equipment to Ukraine — Swedish Ministry of Defence

📹 Ukrainian Artillery hit a staging/repair point for Russian forces in the East, destroying several vehicles including a T-72B series tank [ there seem to be great efforts to hit the infrastructural points within Russian-held territory, to stop more stuff being brought. There are rumours of military hardware being un-mothballed all over, even from as far as Sakhalin, a cold and inhospital island all the way to the East and being brought to the front].

🇱🇹 Lithuanian residents join the "Union of Riflemen" due to threats from the Russian Federation

In the territory of the Suwałki Gap, located between the territory of Belarus and Russian Kaliningrad, locals are joining the Lithuanian volunteer movement "Riflemen".

"There are about 12,000 volunteers currently. And that number is increasing tenfold every month", he said. "Since the first days of the Ukraine war, the number of recruits seeking to join each month has risen from 10 to 12 to more than 100. We remember the Soviet occupation, and we do not like to be occupied anymore. We are free people", said Egidijus Papeckys, commander of the Riflemen's 4th Regional Command.

❗️ Volodymyr Zelensky: The situation in Donbas remains the toughest, extremely difficult. The Russian army's firepower advantage is still very palpable – they have already taken just about everything out of their supplies to hit Luhansk and Donetsk regions. [at this point, Ru is indeed making slow but steady gains and the two key towns are lost. Well, Lysychansk oil refinery is still being defended but it looks like a withdrawal will be necessary]

❗️According to the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Sergei Haidai, the Russians are attacking the Lysychansk Oil Refinery, holding part of it and destroying house after house in the city

❗️Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Tymoshenko reported on 18 deaths in Odesa region, including two children.

⚡️The Pentagon is considering 1,300 proposals from 800 companies for the production of new weapons – including for Ukraine, CNN reports

🖇 From today, July 1, Ukraine introduces a visa regime for citizens of the Russian Federation

The picture is of Mariupol train station.

@MagicFox

Thanks for that, though TBH reading that for a while some of what was described early on was beginning to remind me of why cynics used to joke that the initials "NATO" stood for "No Action, Talk Only"...lots of fine words and intentions.....

However his point /17 and onwards are I think right on the nose and I suspect is going to be real problem for many NATO members, including the UK as/if their economys' take a hit.

Sorry for being simple but what I'm understanding is that we're likely to be in a hot war with Russia, China or both within the next 30 years. Is that right? Would we experience war in the UK?

The reality is that no one knows. Certainly the sense coming out of NATO is that an attack by Russia on a NATO member state's territory isn't unthinkable and should be planned for. The chances are that this wouldn't be the UK, instead I suspect one of the Baltic states, Lithuania or Poland are possibilities.

Generally warfare such as we're seeing in Ukraine is very unlikely on UK soil for the simple reason that we're an island. What we can probably expect is increased cyber attacks in coming years, which in themselves are potentially crippling. In the event of all out war (which I must stress I do not, and neither do most experts, consider to be imminent) we're probably looking at nuclear warfare.

And despite all the right noises coming out of NATO about commitments to Art. 5, I do unfortunately wonder what the reality would be should one of the major super powers launch an attack against a NATO member state. I struggle to genuinely see a mass military response if there is an attached risk of escalation for those states that are potentially otherwise unaffected (looking at the UK and US).

Thanks for replying, I really needed it to be laid out clearly!

And that's before you put an anti-NATO Republican in the White House.

Best case: no war
2nd best case: Ukr war dies down, other small localised wars, like have been going on.
Middle case: Ukr war drags on, a new variety of cold war, the BRICs alliance becomes as powerful as the Western alliance.
2nd worst case: hot war between the West and either Ru, China or both. Or Russia v China, less likely but not imo impossible.
Worstcase: world war
Oh Shit case: generalize nuclear.

Which it will be is for better seers than me to say. I dont think it will be option one or nuclear, and unlikely to be a world war.

Could war come to the UK? Yes. One day, one day it will, even if its not by UK choice. There will always be warmongers. I know people are anxious but human nature changes little. War always comes, but so does peace and trade.

Er @Igotjelly put it so much better

Thanks, it does help to have it laid out like this. Would the possible hot war between eg China and the west happen in a different theatre to the uk then? Like the pacific somewhere

Taiwan would be my best guess. Or the South China Sea somewhere.

@Ijsbear · Yesterday 23:52
One 'explanation' of the Russian's wish to drain the pools was to see if weopons were sunken into it.

I don't know if that can possibly be true because ... uh .. where exactly do you start explaining that that's a Bad Idea.

I do wonder in the long run if some of these stories will turn out to be just that, stories.

A related story I wandered across but now can’t find., is that the torture was to force Ukrainian false admissions on video of having hidden things - that could be detonated - inside the cooling pools. Then when Russians do set up explosions at the plant, this confession could back Russian claims that it was done by UKraine.

@notimagain need the new capabilities, but you still need a core of the old fashioned stuff, including troops, so I'm not impressed by her seemingly quietly going along with yet another reduction in conventional forces ....

yep definitely and I wish that sense could be knocked into her head, and everyone else who needs to see it. She’s parroting the party line about numbers as I’ve heard other politicians say the almost identical thing. Overall I’m seriously underwhelmed and unimpressed by her, as I am by most of our gov and many of the opposition.

Taiwan is definitely a flashpoint but Ukraine has been illustrative in that respect; it's bloody hard to roll into a country these days and take it over against its will - especially when it's supplied with modern weapons and intelligence. Whilst the Chinese army is likely to be better trained and equipped than Russia, it's up against an island that has been preparing for invasion for decades. I don't think America would be able to stop a Chinese assault (according to recent briefing papers), but China would struggle to keep a foothold on Taiwan. It's going to have the same (or more complexity) as the D-Day landings.

I think we are more likely to see a Taiwan blockade and prolonged trade warfare in that part of the world.

I find it all so upsetting and depressing but I do enjoy some of the trolling on twitter

Ulyanov, the ambassador to the mission in Vienna has a committed "following" and is the source of the meme "you propose this nonsense. Not me". I know it's childish but it makes me laugh so much

Agree very much with that, I know supposedly the Chinese military are in some areas better equipped than the Russians but I think they will have noted how badly the Russians have fared in Ukraine against western ordnance and (hopefully) decided to put any idea of an opposed landing on Taiwan on the back burner.

Putin's comments today about the fact that Western pressure has sped up the process of Belarus' reunification with Russia interesting - not sure that's quite what Lukashenko had in mind when he sought out a strategic alliance with Russia.

That's a carrot that Lukashenko has been dangling in front of Putin for years. It's quite funny that Putin doesn't see that Lukashenko is just pretending.

Well that is one way to mobilise Belarus. By annexing it.

It looks like Russians are actually building houses in Mariupol! Saw some videos from mainly prorussian sources, but they look legit.

Made a deal with the devil didn't he?

poor ordinary Belorussians though. An acquaintance of mine is frequently in tears.

Could war come to the UK? Yes. One day, one day it will, even if its not by UK choice. There will always be warmongers. I know people are anxious but human nature changes little. War always comes, but so does peace and trade.

Just to clarify (though tell me if I'm wrong @Ijsbear !) I think ljs meant that the odds favour this scenario one day because of the nature of humankind rather than any specific pronouncement about the current situation

www.politico.eu/article/ussr-allied-leaders-russia-conflict-dangerous-cold-war-nato/

Interesting article from Politico following the NATO summit this week - general message is that the current situation is more dangerous and unpredictable than the Cold War. This line sums it up well:

"It’s less predictable, with fewer ground rules, a real danger of nuclear escalation, attritional bloodletting deeply scarring Ukraine, and no clear path back to any sort of détente."

Quick question if anyone is able to shed some light?

If I remember rightly, at the beginning of the invasion, China very much seemed neutral re the situation, wouldn't put their penny worth in regarding Russia, called for peace etc.

Is this still somewhat their stance or are they getting more behind Russia? I thought this war would be a bit of a hassle for everyone and thought that if anything, China would've been a little more vocal.